For those of you who aren't familiar with PECOTA, it's an acronym for Player Emperical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm or as former NY Times journalist Murray Chass would call it, stat geek garbage.
Basically what it does is try to forecast an upcoming seasons results (also used for individual players)Â by taking into account past statistical performances.Â It factors in comparable players, age, park factors, etc in determining future performance. PECOTA was invented by former baseball prospectus writer Nate Silver, whose gone on to bigger and better things in the world of politics.
Anyways, PECOTA has released their annual predictions for the 2009 standings, which can be found if you CLICK HERE
I recommend taking a look, as some interesting predictions can be found there.Â The things that stood out mostÂ to me were:
A) 3 teams in the AL East winning 90+ games.
B) Cleveland winning the central with only 83 victories.
C) A highly competitive AL West
D) A bump of 20 wins for Washington in 2009.
E) Brewers winning 86 games despite losing arguably their two best pitchers.
F) San Diego NOT being the worst team in baseball
Anyone have any thoughts they'd like to share on PECOTA?Â Love it, hate it, don't understand it….drop a comment below.
Questions and comments can be sent to firstname.lastname@example.org.
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Written by Joseph Gallo