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TL 5 Star LOCKS of the Week

If there is one rule to follow when picking week 1 games in college football, it is this:  pick the heavy home favorites to cover.  The opening round of Thursday night games further proved this belief as nearly all of the heavy home favorites (OSU, IU, Miami, Wake Forest, Buffalo, Kent St, Rutgers, South Carolina, Idaho, Nevada) covered the spread.  A lot of the aforementioned games were “OFF” the board due to the typical week 1 absurd mismatches, even more of an indicator that you need to stick to our week 1 rule when picking games tomorrow.  I think it would be safe to say, if you took every “heavy” home favorite in week 1, you would win a minimum of 60% of the games, if not more.  This is the time when the oddsmakers are at their most vulnerable as they have very little data to consider when setting the lines for week 1.  You’ll notice that they play it extremely safe in the NFL, setting most lines right around a field goal or a touchdown.  However, in college football, they REALLY have no clue and that is why you will not only see a lot of games off the board, but also a lot of games where the point spread is not nearly high enough leading to easy covers for the heavy home favorites (aka the HHF).  Without further ado, let’s take a look at our Week 1 TL 5 Star LOCKS of the Week:
Michigan St -23.5 vs Western Michigan
Michigan St (the HHF) hosts one of the worst teams in the country in East Lansing.  Middle LB Greg Jones will almost single handedly pitch a shutout in this one and I would not be surprised if the spread is covered by halftime.
Florida -37 vs Miami of Ohio
No one loves to run up the score more than Urban Meyer.  The Gators will be out to make a statement behind their new quarterback John Brantley.  They will be sure to run the score up in this one to serve notice to the rest of the nation that their is another team in the SEC to talk about besides Alabama.
Notre Dame -11 vs Purdue
The Irish will score early and often against a porous Boilers secondary.  Look for Dayne Crist to have an absolute field day directing Brian Kelly’s new spread offense as the Irish roll to an easy win in South Bend.
Oregon -34.5 vs New Mexico
There are not many harder places to play in America than in Eugene, Oregon, home of the Pac 10 favorite Oregon Ducks.  The Ducks will be out to prove to the rest of the country that their is plenty of life left after the transfer of quarterback Jeremiah Masoli and will roll to a blowout win over the visiting Lobos.
Alabama -37.5 vs San Jose St
If you don’t already know, sophomore running back Trent Richardson is hardly a drop off from last years Heisman winner Mark Ingram.  Richardson will get the start as Ingram sits out with a knee injury, but it will hardly matter as the Tide Roll in a major way on Saturday.
Oklahoma -33.5 vs Utah St
Many people are predicting big things from the Sooners this year, including a potential national title.  They will have no problem in the home opener behind this years breakout star, quarterback Landry Jones and the return of a now healthy, DeMarco Murray at running back.
Georgia -28.5 vs UL Lafayette
Quick, name one player from UL Lafayette.  That’s what I thought, look for a Bulldogs blowout in Athens.
Nebraska -37.5 vs Western Kentucky
Take a look at what Nebraska did down the stretch last season including a last second loss to Texas in the Big 12 title game and a 33-0 blowout of Arizona in the Holiday Bowl and you will see why this years team has everyone talking BCS.
Clemson -27.5 vs North Texas
I’ll be honest on this one, I don’t know a whole lot about Clemson this year, but what I do know is that they are at home, they are playing NORTH TEXAS, and the spread is under 28 pts…take it to the bank kiddos.
Auburn -31 vs Arkansas St.
Auburn is loaded at running back as usual while junior college transfer Cam Newton takes over at quarterback. Newton was a highly recruited prepster who began his carer at Florida and should be in line for a big day on Saturday.
Well, there you have it folks, sticking with this weeks theme and taking 10 HHF’s to cover the point spread tomorrow…good luck!

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4 Comments

In response to “TL 5 Star LOCKS of the Week”


  1. mp mp Sep 3 201010:48 pm

    Reply

    I agree with playing the chalk at home early in the season, but I would be very weary of ND. They were 1-8 ATS last year as favs and they had Tate and Clausen then. In their last 27 at home as favs they are 8-19 ATS. Those numbers dont lie, ND is usually overvalued at home. Good piece though with solid inof.

  2. Tim Lewis Sep 4 20109:56 am

    Reply

    Thanks for the comment and while I do agree with you about Notre Dame almost always being overvalued at home, I think you can throw out all the numbers from the Weis era and start fresh under Kelly. The Irish are going to score more points than ever before using Kelly’s up tempo no huddle spread attack and I expect the defense to be significantly improved as a result of the new 3-4 scheme under Bob Diaco. I also think they are more talented on offense this year than they were last year, we all know that Floyd and Rudolph make up the best WR-TE combo in the nation, but I would keep a close eye on Theo Riddick and Cierre Wood. I think the Irish win big on Saturday in what should be the most electric atmosphere we’ve seen in South Bend since USC in 2005.

  3. skeezer12 Sep 4 201011:05 pm

    Reply

    Hopefully you will stick to teams you know next week. 4-5 is a rough start for a supposed guru

    1. Tim Lewis Sep 5 201011:02 pm

      Reply

      The picks went 5-4-1 actually…Thanks.

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