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TL 5 Star Locks of the Week

Posted By Tim Lewis On Sep 10 2010 @ 3:57 pm In NCAAF | 1 Comment

Last week we touched on why the oddsmakers are at their most vulnerable in week 1 due to a lack of data to form an educated guess.  I wanted to point out that the reason why they are afraid to set the the lines too high in all of these early season mismatches has to do with the moneyline.  Their fear of getting burned on the public taking the huge underdog moneyline is motivation for them to either take the game “OFF” the board altogether or in most cases, set the line lower than what it really should be.  I know we talked about taking the heavy home favorites (HHF’s) in week 1 and we will continue to do that for the most part in the preseason.  Last week we made money by going 5-4-1 and we were a couple of late backdoor cover TD’s from going 7-3 or 8-2.  No excuses, you are what your record says you are, but our main goal is to stay in the green while helping you generate another revenue stream for the next 5 months.  Anyway, on to the picks!

Wisconsin -38 vs San Jose St
San Jose St lost by 45 at Alabama last week, a team playing without their two best players (RB Mark Ingram and DE Marcell Dareus) while breaking in 9 new starters on defense.  They will have an even tougher time in Madison.
Florida St +7 at Oklahoma
Finally, our first underdog pick!  We love the Seminoles to keep this one close based on Oklahoma struggling to beat Utah St at home last week.  If they can only beat Utah St by 7 at home, we don’t think they will beat the Seminoles by that many considering FSU QB Christian Ponder is among the best in the nation.
Notre Dame -3.5 vs Michigan
We feel this line is way too low considering all the injuries the Wolverines suffered last week.  The secondary is the biggest concern which will allow Dayne Crist, Michael Floyd, and Kyle Rudolph to do whatever they want for the most part.  Denard Robinson is the X factor of course, expect the Irish to spy middle linebacker Mantei Teo on Robinson, forcing him to win this game with his arm, not his legs.
Ohio St -9 vs Miami Florida
Anyone who watched Ohio St last week knows that one thing stuck out more than anything…team speed.  The Buckeyes look like a track team on both sides of the ball and the offensive line is healthy this year providing the best pass protection that we saw from any team last week.  Miami has a very gifted player in QB Jacory Harris but they simply don’t have enough talent on either side of the ball to keep this one close.  We also think Miami is a bit on the soft side and that is not a characteristic of a team that can win in Columbus.  Look for the Buckeyes to make their case for number 1 on Saturday.
Alabama -12 vs Penn St
A freshman quarterback going to Tuscaloosa to play a night game against the best team in the country?  No thanks.  We think this one is going to get ugly as Penn St continues to be the most overrated team in the country every preseason.

Well folks, that’s it for this week, just 5 games that caught our eye.  Good Luck!

Season Record 5-4-1

Top Pick (5 star special) Record 1-0

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