Saturday night, the Atlanta Falcons (13-3) will face the Green Bay Packers (11-5) at the Georgia Dome for the second time in 6 weeks. The Falcons were able to hold on and defeat the Packers 20-17 last November despite Green Bay’s dominance statistically. Aaron Rogers had a goal-line fumble which, after the fact, clearly cost GB the game.
Green Bay (GB) realized 418 yard against the Falcons in November. They ran up the second most yardage against the Falcons with just 77 yard rushing and a staggering 341 yards passing. In comparison, the Falcons ran for 117 yards and threw for just 177 yards (294 total yards).
All of the “professional prognosticators” do not give the Falcons any respect. The Vegas line opened up at Atlanta minus 2 points. Historically, the home team receives a 3 point advantage which means the “experts” think the Falcons are going down Saturday night. The Falcons get no respect despite their impressive 7-1 record at home this year and “Matty Ice’s” home record of 23-2.
Statistically, the teams are very close.
NFL experts usually make a huge deal on “rankings” between teams. Let’s give you a good example of how this information can be manipulated: The Packers have a “top 5 defense” according to the NFL in total yards allowed, passing yards allowed, total sacks and interceptions. In comparison, the Falcons are #16, #22, #20, and #4 in the same categories. The average NFL fan would assume the GB defense is much better. But alas, the statistical differences in the same categories are as follows: Total yards: Falcons (-23), Passing yards: Falcons (-31), Green Bay sacks the passer much better 47 versus 31. GB is the #2 defense with 24 INT’s. The Falcons are #4 with 22 INT’s.
My point is all the pundits are looking at the obvious stats versus the relevant stats.
How about these stats? GB averages just 18.3 ppg on the road. They only give up 15 ppg on the road. In reverse, ATL averages 27 ppg at home and only give up 17ppg.
GB is only 5-4 straight up on the road. ATL is 7-1 straight up at home. In close games, the Falcons are 7-3 when the betting line is plus/minus 3 points. GB is 5-4 in similar games. The Falcons are 12-2 as a favorite this year.
Is this information relevant? You bet!!!!!!!
The Packers are a very good team. But they are traveling for the second straight week after a long, hard 18 week season.
Atlanta is off a bye week. They play very well at home. The “experts” believe GB is the right play. I am a professional prognosticator. My tip on this game? Play the under; I believe the current line is 44 total points. If you research the Packers and their defense, you will see they play low scoring games on the road. PLAY UNDER 44.
Mark Anthony Williams
About the Author
Written by Mark Anthony Williams
Hi Sports Fans, I am the Sports Director for WYXC-AM in Cartersville, GA. I earned 7 Varsity Letters in High School. I played in college level basketball leagues throughout college. I am a 7 handicap golfer. I work out 4 days a week. I hope you enjoy my blogs. Your feedback is invaluable to me. Mark Anthony Williams