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2011 Cy Young Predictions, Rookies too

Posted By Christopher Rowe On Mar 26 2011 @ 5:41 pm In MLB | 3 Comments

[1]As it appears this final week of Spring Training, the Cy Young races will eventually prove that the 2010 voting was more accurate than most realize. Historically, Cy Young voting has been predicated on a very simple set of stats – wins, tempered with ERA and IP. In 2010 Felix Hernandez won the Cy Young Award for a last place team – which has happened only a couple times in history (1972 Steve Carlton, 2009 Zack Grienke) and even then it was an aberration from previous instances.

Thanks to sabremetrics [2]and the more complex awareness of the modern voter, statistics such as WHIP, DICE and WAR as well as the evolution of the modern bullpen specialists, this is not as simple a process as it once was. Starting pitchers [3]don’t usually garner more than 20-25 decisions – and even then it is the exception rather than the rule. Saves, Holds and Quality Starts have taken away from win totals so there may never be [4]another Denny McLain (31-6, 1968) nor may there be another instance where four pitchers from the same team (1971 Baltimore Orioles) win 20 games each.

In the days of Cy Young (1890-1911) pitchers were expected to finish [5]what they started and be ready to throw every 3 or 4 days. Relief pitchers were non-existant and pitch counts were as scarce as baseball-cap-shaped golf cart rides from the bullpen. The Award named after Dentron True “Cy” Young was established in 1956 (in memorium to Young who passed away the previous year) by Commissioner Ford Frick. Originally it was a single award for [6]the best overall pitcher in baseball for that year. Naturally as the [7]game evolved and expanded the award was split in 1967 (after Frick’s retirement) to ensure one NL and one AL recipient – thanks to William Eckert. The voting process was amended after a tie in 1969. Each writer would vote for three different pitchers: the first-place vote received 5 points, the second-place vote received 3 points, and the third-place vote received one point, a system that is still in use.

[8] [9]2011 may prove that Felix Hernandez and Roy Halladay could top the voting again, but it is also possible that the two back-to-back Cy Young Award winners will come from the statistically best and worst teams for the second year in a row. Sabremetricians should be dancing in the streets as this is testment to their efforts. Also included you will find all of the expectant candidates per league – broken down in order of finish.

[10] [11] [12]

[13]AMERICAN LEAGUE

PLAYER W ERA IP EVAL TIOR
Hernandez, Felix, SEA 15 2.84 209 453.53 1
Sabathia, CC, NYY 21 3.30 202 345.42 4
Lester, Jon, BOS 19 3.35 184 305.44 10
Verlander, Justin, DET 17 3.47 196 301.84 12
Weaver, Jered, LAA 18 3.50 193 291.43 14
Buehrle, Mark, CWS 18 4.07 187 175.78 46
Cahill, Trevor, OAK 14 3.53 176 260.48 19
Liriano, Pedro, MIN 16 4.07 167 156.98 60
Carmona, F, CLE 13 4.32 178 122.82 81
Wilson, CJ, TEX 15 3.54 146 214.62 28
Price, David, TBR 14 3.37 175 287 15
Romero, R, TOR 12 3.89 183 204.96 32
Guthrie, Mark, BAL 10 4.09 185 170.2 50
Haren, Danny, LAA 14 3.76 200 250 22
Pavano, Carl, MIN 15 4.24 190 146.3 70
Lewis, Colby, TEX 14 3.80 161 194.81 37
Anderson, Brett, OAK 13 3.49 134 203.68 34
Scherzer, Max, DET 12 3.77 173 214.52 29
Floyd, Gavin, CWS 12 3.90 173 192.03 38
Hughes, Phil, NYY 14 3.80 141 170.61 48
Vargas, Jason, SEA 10 3.97 161 167.44 54

[14]  [15] [16]

[17]NATIONAL LEAGUE

PLAYER W ERA IP EVAL TIOR
Halladay, Roy, PHI 24 3.04 209 376.2 2
Lincecum, Tim, SFG 22 3.12 189 325.08 5
Carpenter,Chris, STL 21 3.24 197 315.2 7
Jimenez,Ubaldo, COL 21 3.22 193 312.66 8
Greinke, Zack, MIL 20 3.38 193 281.78 16
Kershaw, Clayton, LAD 18 3.07 179 316.83 6
Johnson, Josh, FLA 16 3.07 173 306.21 9
Volquez, E, CIN 19 3.89 96 91.2 99
Hudson, Tim, ATL 18 3.41 178 254.54 21
Cain, Matt, SFG 19 3.26 193 304.94 11
Lee, Cliff, PHI 19 3.29 189 292.95 13
Billingsley, Chad, LAD 17 3.57 175 222.25 27
Gallardo, Yovani, MIL 17 3.68 171 198.36 36
Arroyo, Bronson, CIN 17 4.00 190 159.6 58
Latos, Matt, SDP 15 3.30 157 241.78 23
Zambrano, C, CHC 15 3.79 133 139.65 74
Garza, Matt, CHC 14 3.81 182 187.46 40
Myers, Brett, HOU 12 3.84 176 176 45
Hudson, Daniel, ARI 12 3.20 104 170.56 49
Pelfrey, Mike, NYM 12 4.00 180 151.2 63
Rodriguez,W., HOU 12 3.64 178 213.6 30

 ROOKIES OF YEAR

[18]NATIONAL LEAGUE

1B-Freddy Freeman, ATL

Runner-Up: RP-Aroldis Chapman, CIN; 1B-Brandon Belt, SFG (may return to AAA for slumping); OF-Domonic Brown, PHI (injured)

[19]AMERICAN LEAGUE

C-J.P. Arencibia, TOR

Runner-Up: SP-Jeremy Hellickson, TBR; 2b-Dustin Ackley, SEA, SP-Kyle Drabek, TOR, SP-Michael Pineda, SEA

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Pitching Preview : http://prosportsblogging.com/mlb-baseball/aces-wild-in-philadelphia/ [22]

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