I am no professional gambler, nor am I professing to be a handicapping expert. But, I do WIN money on football betting each and every season. The aim of this column is to provide the reader with reasonable value on bets that are out there on the NFL landscape. It is especially tricky early in the season, especially one that comes on the heels of a lockout, where teams have not yet hit full stride. Anyway, let’s hope someone out there wins some ca$h as a result of my picks.
| The Smart Bet | Favorite | Line | Underdog | Total |
| I am not sold on Cincy, and equally as hesitant to lay money on the 9ers with Alex Smith under center. Avoid this game! If anything, take SF to cover the 2.5 points. | At Cincinnati | -2.5 | San Francisco | 40.5 |
| With Tom Brady firing at peak potential, the Patriots should cover this easily. However, I am reluctant to wager on this game as the over/under line is very high and Ryan Fitzpatrick is making a name for himself… Skip this! | New England | -7 | At Buffalo | 53.5 |
| While I respect the Saints, I think Houston is a team to watch this year. Drew Brees is certainly the better QB, but Matt Schaub can get things done too. I’m looking at Houston to win outright, which means they’ll cover the 4 points. | At New Orleans | -4 | Houston | 52 |
| Michael Vick’s concussion raises all kinds of red flags for me, and I think this game could come down to that. I’d skip this completely! | At Philadelphia | -8 | NY Giants | 48.5 |
| I’m leaning towards Miami here, but Cleveland seems to be improving slowly. Another game I’d leave alone, despite the tempting spread for Miami… | At Cleveland | -2.5 | Miami | 41 |
| Haven’t seen enough from Chris Johnson to make an informed pick here, and the spread is somewhat daunting. Might be safer skipping this game. | At Tennessee | -6.5 | Denver | 42.5 |
| Everyone’s darling team, the Detroit Lions, have lived up to the hype thus far, and I fail to see a reason to bet against them. I’m going to take the Lions, minus the 3.5 points. Sorry Minny, looks like the rebuild will continue. | Detroit | -3.5 | At Minnesota | 45 |
| Cam Newton has his name all over this one for his first NFL win. I have ZERO faith in the Jaguars, and believe the spread is generous to them here. Carolina in a beat-down! | At Carolina | -3.5 | Jacksonville | 43 |
| With no Jamal Charles, KC is toast. I still don’t like 14.5 points though, and will avoid this game like the plague! | At San Diego | -14.5 | Kansas City | 44.5 |
| Really? Jets only give up 3.5 points? I’m sorry, but someone was drunk when figuring that line out. Gimme the Jets in a walkover in this one! | NY Jets | -3.5 | At Oakland | 41 |
| Sam Bradford has shown some gusto, and I think he’ll someday be a great player. For now, I’ll take the Ravens based on experience and defence. 4 points seems low. | Baltimore | -4 | At St. Louis | 42 |
| These matchups are usually very close, but I’m going to take a shot with Atlanta to win on the road. Why? Do a “on-paper” comparison and you can figure it out for yourself! | At Tampa Bay | -1.5 | Atlanta | 45.5 |
| Two teams with no identity going head-to-head in what might prove to be the week’s snore-fest. I’m not picking anyone here, other than perhaps the UNDER. | Arizona | -3.5 | At Seattle | 43 |
| When will Jay Cutler go back to making really bad decisions? Well, my bet is this week. Reasoning? Well, GB will have an early lead, and that will force Jay to make bad throws, which will lead to turnovers. Especially if Clay Matthews can get into the pocket. Take the Pack minus 3.5. | Green Bay | -3.5 | At Chicago | 46 |
| Don’t touch this, as it is a trap spread. It seems almost impossible to think that Pittsburgh won’t cover, but the reality is that they tend to let points slip away late in games (once they have a big lead). STAY AWAY! | Pittsburgh | -10.5 | At Indianapolis | 39.5 |
| How bad is Romo’s injury? That’s the key concern, otherwise I’d say Cowboys in a rout! Of course, it could still end up that way if Rex Grossman plays the way he is supposed to… I’m staying away from Monday this week, and leaving this one to your imagination! | At Dallas | -5.5 | Washington | 45.5 |
For my readers in Ontario, I’ll put forth some value picks on Pro-Line… This is my “PICK 6″ combination for those who like money-multipliers…
Houston by 4 over New Orleans – 3.00
Miami by 4 over Cleveland – 2.40
San Francisco by 4 over Cincinnati – 2.50
New York Jets by 4 over Oakland – 1.80
Atlanta by 4 over Tampa Bay – 1.90
Green Bay by 4 over Chicago – 1.80
A bet of $2 will pay out $221.60
Well, that’s it for this week, but remember folks, these are just guesses. Certainly not guaranteeing any winnings, and I would urge everyone to KNOW THEIR LIMITS! Gamble responsibly, and try to enjoy the games! By the way, if you win, you owe me a beer!
Until next week,
Na Zdravi!
DR
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Written by Dan Rakusan
A huge Rangers (NHL), Falcons (NFL), PGA Tour and soccer fan, I have been writing semi-professionally for about 7 years now. I try to impart information with some degree of humour, and always have an opinion. PSB is another feather in my cap, and am really proud of the team assembled here, and look forward to the long-term journey PSB is embarking on in terms of establishing itself as the best sports blogging collective on the net! Look for articles such as 4-Play, Rangers blogs and PGA Tour updates, along with my NFL handicapping service!
