Centre field is clearly Colby Rasmus’ position to lose as of now, but what happens if his game is still stuck in St. Louis, as it appeared last season? But first, some “this week in Jays’ news” business:
1 – Johnson/Francisco/Molina/Rauch Arbitrated; Camp Not
The only surprising move out of the group is Jon Rauch, but I guess Alex Anthopoulos felt that the reward of a draft pick between the first and second rounds was worth the risk of the big righty accepting arbitration and the club being on the hook for $3.5 – 4 million. Plus, he couldn’t possibly be as bad as he was last year, could he? Ironically, Rauch may now be the likeliest to return considering he won’t find a better offer on the open market, whereas Kelly Johnson, Frank Francisco and Jose Molina all may be able to (Shawn Camp might still come back, but at a significantly discounted rate from the $2.2 million he made last year). From my perspective, I’d like to see Francisco and, ideally, Johnson back, but none of the arbitration guys are must-haves.
2 – Jays Acquire Valbuena from Indians for Cash
So many classic AA elements here – Valbuena’s versatility as a defence-first middle infielder who can shift over to 3B in a pinch; buying low on a 25-year old with horrific offensive numbers; protecting team assets by strictly dealing cash. The versatility will help ease the pressure on Mike McCoy to back up just about every position on the field, while the major league numbers (.226 average/.286 OBP/.344 slugging) belie some solid contributions at the minor league level (.302 average and .372 OBP with 17 home runs). I’m still not sure there’s an awful lot to be excited about, as Valbuena’s 735 major league at-bats over four seasons represent plenty of opportunities that he has yet to cash in on and it’s not like the Cleveland braintrust of Mark Shapiro and Chris Antonetti don’t know what they’re doing. That being said, at worst, Anthopoulos has added a young, glove-only utility infielder making close to the major league minimum for a few bucks.
The 2011 Guys
Starters: Rajai Davis / Colby Rasmus
Back-Ups: Corey Patterson, Mike McCoy, Rajai Davis
Waiting in the Wings: Anthony Gose, Darin Mastroianni
How Did The Jays Fare?
Hard to recall a recent trade so widely celebrated which then backfired so immediately. Now, remember, this section is only a discussion of the results which have already transpired (we’ll get into Rasmus’ future projections momentarily).
So yeah, Marc Rzepczynski, Octavio Dotel and Edwin Jackson infused the Cardinals with the pitching depth that set them up for their unlikely World Series run (including the postseason, Albert Pujols and co. went 46-30 following the deal), while Zach Stewart offered a taste of what he could produce with a complete game one-hitter in just his fifth start with the White Sox. As for Rasmus, the “star” of the trade, the Jays got a .173 hitter (.201 on-base) who showed no signs of the attitude issues that plagued him in St. Louis but didn’t demonstrate the talent, either.
Those who raved about Toronto’s end of the deal immediately after the July 27th trade clearly believed the Jays were getting more than a plus fielder with no bat. They also probably didn’t anticipate Rzepczynski, Dotel and Jackson as being the missing links to a World Series champion.
Where Are They Headed?
The early portion of the 2012 season will tell us a lot about Rasmus. Whatever attitude problems existed in St. Louis have yet to cause any evident distractions in Toronto, but the 25-year old also has yet to show the willingness to work hard and improve himself. From Spring Training into the first few months of next season, we will see if Rasmus has dedicated himself to making the necessary adjustments to AL pitching and is actively listening to Jays’ coaches, a contentious issue that put him at odds with Tony La Russa before the deal.
The talent is there. Not only was Rasmus ranked as high as No. 3 by Baseball America as a prospect, but he has produced at the major league level, too. As recently as 2010, he hit .276 with a .361 OBP and an .859 OPS, connecting on 26 home runs in just 464 at-bats to rise up the batting order as protection to Pujols. Hell, even in the 2009 NLDS, the lefty tore up Dodgers’ pitching to the tune of a .444 average and 1.323 OPS. Even in light of the early results, ask AA if he’d surrender a marginal pitching prospect (Stewart), a veteran fourth outfielder (Patterson) and a bunch of relievers for lesser veteran relievers (Brian Tallet, Trever Miller and PJ Walters) and a talent like Rasmus and he’d do it again in a heartbeat.
That being said, the question of what happens should Rasmus continue to falter is an interesting one. The Jays have enough young outfield talent to shorten his rope at least somewhat. A reader last week suggested that only Jose Bautista’s RF spot was secure and a three-way fight between Rasmus, Travis Snider and Eric Thames would take place for the remaining two outfield slots. While I think that may be a little premature, it demonstrates the level of pressure being applied in the outfield and the impact of Rasmus’ underwhelming early returns. The Georgia native is arbitration-eligible after this season and, as a young, defensively-sound player at a premium position with some established track record of being able to hit, he could be reasonably expecting a plum deal. The question will be whether he warrants it.
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Written by Ben Fisher
Alan Hume Nov 29 20112:31 pm
Colby Rasmus is a real issue with me. I think the batting line-up is first rate (with Johnson at 2B) pending a resolution of the inconsistencies at 1B and DH.
Rasmus obviously has the potential to be a big bat in the line-up. If he can have a big season that would make the line-up a very dangerous one for opposing teams when you combine it with Bautista’s talent and surging power potential coming from Laurie and Arencibia.
With Rasmus batting well you would have Thames or Snyder in LF ( two young and improving bats) and someone capable of filling in at DH if either Lind or Encarnacion goes into one of their prolonged slumps.
With Rasmus not performing well you have a line-up that becomes very iffy. Rasmus not performing well means we are carrying a weak bat in a power position. To end up with an adequate line-up you would need at least two other players (ie. Lind, Encarnacion, Arincibia or Laurie) to super exceed already high expectations.
So what are my issues with Colby Rasmus? Well, he seems to have the same problem that Lind has only to an even greater degree. Neither player seems to be completely alive in the batter’s box. Neither player reaches out fully expecting to seize the opportunity, fully expecting to deliver a key hit, fully aware of what to do and what not to do.
A player’s body language in the batter’s box is very revealing. Compare Lind and Rasmus to Bautista, Thames or Laurie and you will see a large difference. Some player’s body language shouts out that THEY WILL while the language of other players say I’M NOT SO SURE so lets not get too excited here.
In short Rasmus (and Lind) just needs to wake up and come alive to seizing opportunities.
Ben F Nov 29 20113:45 pm
Thanks Alan, appreciate the analysis.
I’ve never been a fan of nitpicking on perceived effort from a player based on their play in-game. Sure, it’s what you do on the field that matters, but watching a guy for one at-bat at a time doesn’t tell the full story. If the coaches, who have seen him train, take BP and work to improve his game, are content to reward him with at-bats, then I have to trust their judgment over whatever I may or may not see during games.
I, for one, always thought Vernon Wells was among the worst violators when it came to looking disinterested and failing to run out ground balls, but that’s the same Wells who existed as a clubhouse leader for so many years and continues to boast tons of peer respect in spite of his grossly inflated contract.
You could well be right on Rasmus (and there sure are plenty of other Jays fans who likely feel the same way), but I’m inclined to give John Farrell the benefit of the doubt if he feels that Ramus merits the at-bats.
Alan Hume Nov 29 20115:48 pm
I do not mean to say that they are not trying or putting out the effort. I think they likely are.
I do mean that there is something in their own personal psychology that is hindering their performance.
When a person is ‘in the zone’ all the factors that make for premium performance are being executed at a very high level. I do not know what all these factors are but psychology is certainly one of them.
The psychological factor differs from player to player and also waxes and wanes within each individual player. When the skill levels are there it is a shame for them to be diminished by a poor psychological approach.
Kolby Dec 9 201111:21 pm
A good deal of being successful in sports is mental.
It must have been quite a change for the young Rasmus
to change teams, leagues, and countries to play
in a game where failure is more likely than success.
Maybe one could be skeptical if you haven`t seen
him hit a triple, a four hundred fifty foot home run,
or steal a home run destined for the cheap seats.
I suspect the Kansas city Royals have. So if you are
so quick to write him off. Send him to Kansas City,
you can watch him excel there.
Christopher Rowe Dec 10 20114:09 pm
Good point. The ability is there – but the difference between bona fide major league superstar and career minor league player is putting the ability together with the pressure to perform, the business of the game and the demands of the major league season.