- Pro Sports Blogging - http://www.prosportsblogging.com -

Fantasy Football 2013 Draft Strategy

Posted By Josh Souder On Apr 2 2013 @ 6:56 pm In Fantasy,Fantasy Football | No Comments

What is the best 2013 fantasy football draft strategy?

 

It’s late August.  You have your cheat sheet ready to go.  You have some targets and sleepers in mind.  Maybe you’ve decided to stick with drafting the best available player regardless of position?  Maybe you just really want Megatron this year?

 

You know that running backs are going to fly off the board furiously, so do you lock down two right off the bat, or scoop up a stud QB, WR, or TE that’s slipping to a good value pick in round two?  It will be difficult to pass on Aaron Rodgers to take a questionably solid RB in the second round, no doubt.  But do you really want to roll the dice on some RB’s later on when you know that there will still be good QB’s on the board?

 

So let’s say that you do decide to wait for a QB, strictly because of the depth at that position, and you take RB’s with your first two picks.  That means that you most likely will not have a shot at Gronkowski or Graham come the 3rd round, (unless you have one of the first couple of picks in the draft order, giving you an early 3rd round pick).

 

Gronk & Jimmy won’t stay on the board long, even with their drop in production last season.  If by chance they do slide to the 3RD round, draft them immediately.  Or you can sit back and see what TE’s are still on the board later on down the road and hope to get lucky.  Your choice.

 

Everything obviously depends on some key factors, like draft position and runs.  The run at RB will start immediately and last until about the 3rd round.  The available backs from the 4th round on will be a coin flip.  Will there be that Alfred Morris in the later rounds again this year?  Most likely.  Can you depend on finding that gem to secure a #2 RB spot?  No way.

 

If you do end up getting one of the first couple of picks in your draft, you will be almost forced to take two RB’s with your first three picks.  By the time your fourth pick comes back around to you, that position will be limited to rookies and leftovers.  Value can be found at the RB position after the third round like last season (Morris, Martin, Ridley, Spiller, Green-Ellis, Greene, Leshoure, or Sproles), but I would rather have those type of risks as my #3 RB than my #2.

 

If you end up having one of the last couple of picks in your draft, you will have your choice of the two best remaining RB’s at the turn, or a shot at an elite WR or QB.  There is a decent chance that there might be a workable option at RB when your 3rd & 4th round picks come back your way, but you can be guaranteed that there will be solid options at both QB and WR at those picks.  With that in consideration, it makes the most sense to use your first two picks on RB in that draft position.  Unless…

 

You absolutely want Gronkowski or Graham.  Now a lot of owners got burned last season by these two highly drafted TE’s, especially during weeks 12 through 16, when it also mattered the most.  Guys like Gonzalez or Witten could have been drafted many rounds later, allowing you to possibly lock up RB’s like Charles, Lynch, AP, Gore, or Forte in that 2nd round last year.  But keep in mind, if you do end up having one of the last picks in your draft, chances are that Gronk & Jimmy will not be available by your 3rd round selection, even with their drop off in production during 2011.  If you want them, go get them.

 

But If you are sitting in the middle of your draft order, you will most likely have both of these TE’s left on the board by your 2nd round pick.  If you’re lucky, one could still be sitting there by your round three selection, but there’s a chance that they could both be gone as well.  Regardless, you should be able to secure a solid RB in the 3rd round if you hold this draft position.  That allows you the flexibility to use that 2nd round pick on Gronk or Jimmy without too much worry of not being able to get a solid #2 RB.

 

So is it worth the risk to lock up Gronk and Jimmy in that 2nd round?  Is their potential to double up the stats of other TE’s worth that high of a pick again this year?  Or are you confident that you can find a serviceable TE later on in the draft, targeting guys like Hernandez or Gates?  That decision is left up to you, but if you can still lock up two solid RB’s to go along with Gronk or Jimmy, the rest of your draft will be a piece of cake, and this is why.

 

By your 4th round pick, there will be plenty of good options at QB and WR still left on the board.  Between rounds four through nine, you will be able to draft at least one semi-elite QB and a solid backup, three quality WR’s, and the best available RB that slipped through the cracks.  But it just comes down to how bad you would like Gronk or Jimmy in your lineup, because you will have to draft them over some other really good players early.

 

I compare having an elite TE to an elite catcher in fantasy baseball though.  If you have somebody locked into that spot that can score you just as many points as your other position players can, it will put you in a better situation to win.  If you end up searching for a viable option on the wire all season, resulting in consistently getting limited points at that position, it can really hurt your chances of winning on a consistent basis (but, so can having a sub-par #2 RB as well).

 

Ideally, if you draft Gronk or Jimmy early this year, you would hope that they would be able to score the same amount of points per week as the RB you passed on would have scored.  Even with being injured last season, Gronkowski still notched eleven TD’s.  Odds are, you will be able to draft another RB after Gronk & Jimmy that will consistently score more points than any other TE left on the board.  Considering the potential to have a TE drop 80-plus receptions, 1,000-plus yards, and 10-plus TD’s, when compared to a later option that may only produce half of that, it does make this decision a little easier.

 

But if you do decide to go all in on Gronk & Jimmy this season, make sure that the RB you take in the 3rd round does not lose you too much production over the RB you could have selected the pick before.  For this strategy to work, the point differential between an elite TE versus a lower ranked TE needs to outweigh the loss of points between the 2nd round RB and the 3rd round RB.

 

Keep in mind, in many drafts guys like AP, Charles, & Lynch were still there in the 3rd round last season.  Who that will be this year, time and injuries will only tell, but if Gronk & Jimmy can return to that 2011 form, they will indeed justify a 2nd round selection in this years draft.  Especially if you make the correct choice at RB with that next pick.

 

Don’t be afraid to wait for a QB, because there will be plenty of talent still left on the board for quite some time.  The NFL has been churning out fantasy beasts at this position, and there will be many QB’s racking up solid fantasy points week in and week out, especially with so many double-threats now.

 

A QB doesn’t have to throw for 300 yards when they are getting 80 yards on the ground.  This new pistol offense adoration should rack up more rushing yards by quarterbacks than ever before.  Expect plenty of yards on the ground from RGIII, Newton, Wilson, Kaepernick, Vick, Locker, Rodgers, Luck, maybe Geno Smith, or even Tim Tebow if they actually gave him a chance.  Hell, the Bears are even planning on letting Jay Cutler tear it up on the ground this season!

 

And keep in mind that eleven QB’s threw for more than 4,000 yards last year.  And that doesn’t include RG3, Newton, Wilson, Vick, or Kaepernick, who did most of their damage by keeping the ball themselves.  Sure Brees or Rodgers could toss for 5,000 yards and 40 TD’s, but that’s not to say that you couldn’t find a QB later on that could produce similar numbers.

 

You don’t want to pass on a solid RB or an elite TE early when you know that guys like Brady, Manning, Ryan, Stafford, Romo, Luck, RGIII, Newton, Wilson, and Kaepernick will be on the board for awhile.  It’s a running back world these days, so that being said…

 

Don’t be afraid to wait for a WR, because there is gold to be found at this position late in the draft.  Last season, 19 WR’s went over a 1,000 yards.  Most of those guys could’ve been selected well after the 5th round.  Now if one of the studs falls to you in the 3rd round and you’ve already locked up two RB’s (and Jimmy & Gronk are off the board), don’t hesitate to grab them.  With so many RB’s back being snatched up early, who knows what WR might fall to you with that third round pick?  But do keep in mind, there will be plenty of WR talent left on the board for rounds to come.

 

And last but not least, always target a solid back-up QB and the back-up to your #1 RB.  With so many good QB’s on the board this season, you should be able to find a reliable one and stash him on your bench.  There’s nothing that will ruin the chances of you winning your league quicker than having to search on the waiver-wire for a QB during the playoffs.  And that goes for your #1 RB as well.  Save spots on your bench for these two insurance players and it could pay off big in the end.

 

DRAFT STRATEGY BREAKDOWN

 

(BASED ON A 12 TEAM LEAGUE)

 

DRAFT ORDER PICK #1 – #4:

 

1ST  RD – RB

2ND  RD – GRONKOWSKI OR GRAHAM (IF AVAILABLE or #2 RB)

3RD RD – #2 RB OR #1 WR (IF YOU DRAFTED #2 RB IN 2ND RD)

 

DRAFT ORDER PICK #5 – #8

1ST RD – RB

2ND RD – GRONKOWSKI OR GRAHAM (IF AVAILABLE or #2 RB)

3RD RD – #2 RB OR #1 WR (IF YOU DRAFTED #2 RB IN 2ND RD)

 

DRAFT ORDER PICK #9 – #12

1ST RD – RB

2ND RD – #2 RB (OR GRONKOWSKI OR GRAHAM, BECAUSE THEY WILL MOST LIKELY BE GONE BY YOUR NEXT PICK)

3RD RD – #2 RB (IF YOU DRAFTED GRONKOWSKI OR GRAHAM) OR #1 WR (IF YOU DRAFTED A #2 RB IN THE 2ND ROUND)

 

FROM THE 4TH RD TO THE 8TH RD:

(FOR ALL DRAFT POSITIONS)

 

DRAFT THE BEST AVAILABLE OF:

(in any order)

TWO QB’S

TWO WR’S (OR A ‘TE’ IF YOU DIDN’T DRAFT GRONKOWSKI OR GRAHAM)

#3 RB

 

FROM THE 9TH RD ON:

TARGET:

 

SOLID DEFENSES/IDP’S

THE BACK UP RB TO YOUR #1 RB

FILL ROSTER IN BETWEEN WITH THE BEST AVAILABLE RB’S AND WR’S

AND FINALLY, DON’T FORGET A KICKER

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

About the Author Subscribe to author's RSS feed [1]


Article printed from Pro Sports Blogging: http://www.prosportsblogging.com

URL to article: http://www.prosportsblogging.com/2013/04/02/fantasy-football-2013-draft-strategy/

URLs in this post:

[1] Subscribe to author's RSS feed: http://www.prosportsblogging.com/author/joshsouder/feed/

Copyright © ProSportsBlogging.com. All rights reserved.