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Apologies for the late post…

The Flames won their first season opener in six seasons Thursday with a 5-3 win over the Canucks at home. After a sizzling start led to an early 3-0 lead, the Flames slowed down the next two periods, and eventually Miikka Kiprusoff had to bail out the team in the third period to preserve the win. Nevertheless, there were some good things to take away from the Flames’ win. But since it was the season opener, these can only be called general observations, or knee jerk reactions.

Miikka Kiprusoff was the first star and saved the game for the Flames. When the third Vancouver goal went in – a very weak goal from the side of the net that somehow squeezed through his pads – I fully expected the Flames to lose, as it fit the formula of so many other collapses I had seen. But he managed to rebound from this bad goal, like vintage Kipper. Kiprusoff is a notoriously slow starter, and though I obviously won’t go so far to say he won’t be this year based on this one game, he did look in midseason form tonight. While this wasn’t necessarily a steal of a win, I don’t remember him being this important to a Flames win since he single handedly beat the Kings 2-0 last February – a win that was one of the few he outright stole last year. He made a diving stick save on one of the Sedins that was reminiscent of his TSN Play of the Year save last year on Kyle Wellwood (incidentally, the Wellwood save happened in late February). He was helped, I thought, by the fact that while the Canucks outshot the Flames through two periods, they did not start getting rapid, real scoring chances in succession until the third. I don’t know how long Kipper can keep this up, but I haven’t seen him play this good, this early, since Jim Playfair was coach.

Other notes on the game. Something I’d been curious about – especially since Anton Stralman was traded at the end of training camp – was who would be the second defenseman on the second powerplay with Mark Giordano…tonight it was Robyn Regehr….filling in for Cory Sarich was 7th defenseman Staffan Kronwall, and he might be my early candidate for the Anders Eriksson Memorial Defensive Scapegoat Award…Dion Phaneuf looks like he’s got his legs back after his hip injury derailed him last season; his open-ice hit on Daniel Sedin to end the first was one of my favourite moments of the game. He played 23:21, a far cry from last season when he was competing with Jay Bouwmeester for highest ice time in the league…Bouwmeester himself was a +2 with 29 minutes. Though his offensive contribution amounted to 1 shot and 1 missed shot, his speed and quiet defensive play was apparent…Rene Bourque got two powerplay points after just one the entire 2009 season, and Adam Pardy and Brandon Prust also scored after just two goals combined from the two last season with the Flames… The Flames were 2-for-3 on the powerplay, but 2-for-4 on the penalty kill. The first Vancouver powerplay goal went in off Fredrik Sjostrom’s stick (a player I’ve been told is an excellent penalty killer). Perhaps this is the story of this opening game as it applies to the bigger picture: a promising start, with some very positive signs, but still obviously some kinks to work out. Which is generally what was to be expected, but still better than the usual opening season rout I had expected.

–Alex Hamilton

(Because “season preview” was too generic)

I will only make one “bold” prediction before the Flames open their season – they will lose their opening game Thursday night at home against the Canucks. Why? Simply because I can’t remember the last time the Flames won their opening game, and they have had a great deal of frustration the past few years with the Canucks, who have taken the mantle of true #1 rival from the Oilers. But beyond tomorrow night, the season is a mystery to me; I expect the Flames to be improved generally, and be at least second in their division, but beyond that I just don’t know. As I detailed in my previous blog, 2010 is a bit of an enigma for the Flames: on the surface it appears to be a “go for it” year, but looking at the roster it doesn’t seem to fit, and Darryl Sutter may be thinking more long term than people think. Nevertheless, here’s my obligatory general look ahead at the Flames, for the year ahead. As it is opening day, I’ll simply look ahead to the coming year, and deal with the long term when it’s appropriate.

The Flames’ two major offseason moves – the long overdue complete revamp of the coaching staff and the coup of signing Jay Bouwmeester – plug the Flames’ two biggest holes from last season – coaching and defense. However, in my mind there are two major questions that will determine the Flames’ fate this season. These are probably obvious to anyone who has followed this team even a little but I’ll analyze them anyway. The two questions are whether the offense will be good enough, and whether Miikka Kiprusoff will be good enough.

The first, most obvious question is whether the offense will be good enough. I may have to edit this by the time the puck drops, but this appears to be the opening night lines:

Moss – Jokinen –Iginla

Dawes – Langkow – Bourque

Glencross – Conroy – Boyd

Sjostrom – Nystrom – Prust

*based on Wednesday’s practice lines

This offense may not look like much to a relative outsider, but what has been forgotten or overlooked in every prediction writing off the Flames because of their questionable offense is that the questions really are quite similar, if not basically the same, as the questions which faced the Flames last year. In fact, I might even go so far as to argue that the offense looked worse on paper last year. Go back and read my season preview blog from last season. The questions facing the offense then were whether Mike Cammalleri would be an adequate replacement for one of Alex Tanguay or Kristian Huselius (he did; leading the club in goals meant he accomplished more than either player ever did in Calgary), whether Rene Bourque would be an adequate top six winger (he was, enjoying an excellent breakout season before an effectively season-ending ankle injury in late February) whether Matthew Lombardi could be an effective top-six center (he wasn’t, leading to him being traded for Olli Jokinen), and whether Todd Bertuzzi would have enough gas left in the tank to be a decent enough top six winger (as it turned out, he didn’t; after a hot start his bad back eventually flared up during the stretch drive making him useless, and his complete lack of a defensive game never helped the Flames at any point). The main questions this year are how well Olli Jokinen can replace Cammalleri (shouldn’t be much of a question), whether Rene Bourque can pick up where he left off last February and stay healthy, whether David Moss can continue to make strides to the point he’s a legitimate top six winger (perhaps my biggest question in the offense), and whether Nigel Dawes can stay consistent (I have heard from Rangers fans he is a streaky player.) It should also be noted that the addition of Jay Bouwmeester, in addition to solidifying the defense, also should at least replace Bertuzzi’s point output (Bertuzzi had 43 points in 66 games last year, Bouwmeester 42 in 82). What the Flames offense essentially comes down to is Nigel Dawes and David Moss basically replacing Rene Bourque and Matthew Lombardi as the two biggest question marks on the top six. (Here are some more statistics worth considering regarding this situation. Prior to 2009, Lombardi and Bourque were primarily bottom six forwards, just as Moss and Dawes have been prior to their opening night slotting in the Flames’ lines. Prior to 2009, Lombardi had 137 points in 297 games for a 0.461 PPG, and Bourque had 75 points in 183 games for a 0.410 PPG. Moss has 68 points in 163 games for a 0.417 PPG, and Dawes has 51 points in 133 games for a 0.383 PPG.) However, even if my optimistic predictions of these players are off the mark, the second hope is that the defense will be improved enough that the Flames will need less goals a night to win.

The hope with the defense is also that they are improved enough to take heat off Miikka Kiprusoff. In my mind, the Flames still live and die with Kipper. It is an absolutely critical year for Kipper. I have given him the benefit of the doubt; as Mike Keenan criminally overworked him the past two years and it became clear he could no longer handle a workload over, say, 65 games. But if he once again cannot be a $5.8 million goaltender in crunch time, the Flames will not achieve anything substantial. (And it would raise a critical problem: the Flames would then have a goalie contract arguably just as bad, if not worse, than Cristobal Huet’s in Chicago.)

Some general thoughts on this year. I fully expect the Northwest Division to be won by either the Flames or Canucks. I must admit I think the Canucks are better overall on paper. I think the time is ripe, though, for another Flames-Canucks first round playoff series (reminder: the last three times this happened, it went to Game 7 overtime and the winner went on to the Stanley Cup Finals.) Though the Oilers might still be a bubble team, and the Canucks have taken their spot as the Flames’ true bona fide number one rivals, I dread facing them now that Nikolai Khabibulin is their goalie – he owns the Flames and has beaten them in two playoff series. Back to goaltending, I am still doubting the decision to bring back Curtis McElhinney as Kipper’s backup. He did not get enough starts last year to truly judge him, and the defense has a bizarre tendency to leave him out to dry every time he starts, but in the few times I saw him in truly pressure situations I saw him let in truly momentum killing goals. In his preseason start at Vancouver, he looked very shaky. I am quite puzzled as to why they gambled on bringing him back when there were many cheap backup options – such as Alex Auld, Ty Conklin, Scott Clemmensen, etc – out there. Both Brent and Darryl Sutter have said that McElhinney will get 10-15 starts this season, but I wonder whether he won’t be replaced at some point during the season. I was surprised at Staffan Kronwall winning the 7th defenseman spot over Anton Stralman (who was traded to Columbus for a 3rd rounder, rendering the Flames’ original trade of a 2nd rounder for Stralman a waste.) I would have thought Stralman had better puck moving capabilities, which would be convienent as the Flames only have three puck moving d-men. Take my opinions in this paragraph with a grain of salt, though – I never did have the opportunity to watch any of the pre-season games in full.

The slate is clean, my hope in this team is higher than it’s been in awhile, and the puck is mere hours away from dropping. Maybe the Flames can even win their opening game for once!

– Alex Hamilton

(Addendum: some may say the powerplay should also be a major question. However, I am confident that replacing the clueless Rich Preston with Dave Lowry to run the powerplay, as well as having a coach in Brent Sutter who’s actually coached this century and knows that the powerplay is something that should actually be practiced should improve it tenfold. I believe the Flames had one of the most efficient powerplays in the pre-season.)

I figured my last day of summer holidays before I head off for my first year of university was as good a time as any to emerge from my self-imposed hiatus from blogging. I have neglected my duty. My team made arguably the biggest splash of any team this past offseason, and, though I’m more optimistic than I can remember myself being in years, even I cannot answer the simple question of what exactly I expect from them this coming season.

The Flames’ relatively stunning acquisition (or at least to me) of Jay Bouwmeester has to have been the most immediately well-received move of the Sutter era in Calgary. (It’s also probably one of the biggest moves in Flames history. I mean really, the Flames, of all teams, managing to get the single most coveted free agent? And signing him BEFORE he became a free agent? Has this ever happened? I’m still in a bit of disbelief it actually happened.) With the move, the Flames’ top three defensemen are all Team Canada invitees (though Bouwmeester at least should make it, I’d be surprised if more than one did. Point still stands, though, the defense seems to be fixed.) Darryl Sutter spent the vast majority of his budgeted offseason on this one player, after he said his #1 priority this offseason was to improve the porous defense. I’d say mission accomplished, at least on paper. But then comes the big question mark…the other half of the team.

Just as many people, if not more, that have praised the Flames’ defense have questioned their offense. I honestly can’t blame them, it doesn’t look like much on paper. But I’ll defend it. The basic line structure is largely dependent on whether top prospect Mikael Backlund can make the opening day roster (Darryl Sutter has said that it’s either the top six or the AHL for the young Swede.) If Backlund made the team (I can’t give an honest opinion on this matter) the top six would look something like this:

Bourque – Jokinen – Iginla

Backlund – Langkow – Moss

Glencross – Conroy – Dawes

Prust – Boyd – Sjostrom

However, if Backlund failed to make it, the top six is a bit more of a mess. One of Curtis Glencross, Nigel Dawes or Dustin Boyd would have to be the second line LW. I love Glencross but don’t think he should be above the third line. I think Dawes might have the offensive talent to moonlight in top six duty, but am not sure how long he could handle it. Boyd is penciled in for fourth line duty without Backlund, yes, but he has the offensive potential and signed a deal that seems to have “prove yourself” written between the lines (one year and one-way, with a paycut from last year.) And the other two wingers up there, aside from Iginla of course, also have question marks. I’m confident Rene Bourque can repeat or exceed his excellent season last year if he stays healthy (which he did before his season was effectively ended by an unpenalized slewfoot late in February.) David Moss had a career year last year with 20 goals on the third line, but can he do the same on the second line? The only two certainties seem to be Olli Jokinen and Iginla. Jokinen has a ton to prove – though I feel he took a bit too much heat for the Flames’ collapse, he still has to shake his reputation of being a chronic team cancer, among other things. He’s also in a contract year.

The optimist’s view states that Bourque can stay healthy and repeat his surprise breakout year last year, as can Moss, and that if the second line LW spot is difficult to fill, Jay Bouwmeester can at least replace Todd Bertuzzi’s point output there last season, and that additional offense from the backend will be provided by Dion Phaneuf if he rebounds from his fairly awful season last year. (It’s worth noting here that the Flames should, if they hired the right assistants, finally have a powerplay after about six decades – I mean years – of suffering under the chronically inept Rich Preston. I laughed and laughed and laughed when Preston was hired to be the Lethbridge Hurricanes coach AND GM.) That’s the optimist’s view, and I really don’t think it’s unreasonable or unrealistic. But if it turns out to be, and the Flames fall short again this season because of not enough offense, nobody can act surprised. Except that begs the question: what exactly can be defined as “falling short” this season for the Flames?

Without going on a long diatribe/rant, let’s just say that the post-lockout Flames have been disappointing to say the least. Last year’s first round exit might have been the bitterest yet, where a spectacular division-race meltdown converged with a failed attempt to get the team over the top, which converged with the realization that the team was coached by someone whose best-before date was 15 years ago, which converged with the worst possible injuries that came at the worst possible time, which converged with horrid cap management, eventually leading to a first round matchup where winning was never a realistic possibility. So clearly, a repeat of the last four years can’t possibly be desirable. And yet Darryl Sutter has purposefully built a team that appears stacked on defense but questionable at best on offense. With the top line center likely a one year rental just as Mike Cammalleri was, and a salary cap many observers have predicted will fall after this season, one might wonder what exactly Sutter’s long term plan is. In my opinion, last season seemed a much more “go-for-it” season – the season he placed more priority on replacing his scoring wingers than upgrading his defense, and spent so dangerously close to the cap. The knowledge that the defense is solidified long-term is comforting but I’m not sure how it affects my expectations for this coming season, or how it affects my overall long-term outlook.

That being said, I fully expect the Northwest Division to once again be won by either the Flames or Canucks, by a thin margin that could even result in the two teams being first round opponents. Last season, I always felt that the Flames had to win the division to get past the first round, as I feared Chicago more than any other team. Now, I am unsure about who will be in that 4-5 position the Flames could be in if they fall short of the division again. Add it to the list of reasons why my expectations and predictions of the Flames this season are murky overall. Doesn’t keep me from still being optimistic though, and anticipating the season ahead with more anticipation than I’ve had in years.

—

Other, additional notes about the team that I couldn’t manage to fit in elsewhere. Miikka Kiprusoff might have a bit to prove too. With a solidified defense, and a new sane coach who I’m presuming will actually rest Kipper like a normal goalie, I am confident he can return to his old, consistent standard. This actually is possibly the most crucial question facing the Flames. The team’s offseason adjustments can only be good news for him, but if he still is mediocre when it matters, the Flames have a goalie contract on their hands that is on par, if not worse than Cristobal Huet’s in Chicago.

I have not mentioned the hire of Brent Sutter nearly enough. It is possibly just as important as the signing of Bouwmeester. All Sutterite Colony jokes aside, I really believe that Brent was the best coach available, and replacing one of the league’s worst coaches with him can only be an improvement.

Only three weeks left!

–Alex Hamilton

(If anyone’s still reading at this point, I’d like to apologize for pulling an Eklund and promising a blog which never came – Part 2 of my post mortem on the Flames back in May. I got very few comments for the entire playoff series, and quickly got sidetracked by homework and other things. By the time I got around to it, it was a bit late for a post mortem).

There isn't much to be said one way or another about the Flames' loss last night, which eliminated them in the first round for the fourth consecutive season. As an individual game it was completely frustrating for the Flames. But the fact is that losing in the first round again this season was completely unacceptable. It was completely unacceptable before the season, it was completely unacceptable when the Flames had a 13 point lead on their division with two games in hand at the start of February, it was completely unacceptable when Darryl Sutter decided to go all in at the deadline, it was completely unacceptable when a perfect storm of an epic collapse in their pennant race and a series of crucial injuries down the stretch led to the Flames being completely written off for the first round, and it wasn't excusable when Nikolai Khabibulin finished off the Flames last night by taking over Game 6. The Flames have a long offseason ahead, with more crucial decisions and questions about the overall state of the team since before the Darryl Sutter era began in Calgary.


I'll start off with my simple autopsy of the Flames' season. The official cause of death is too many crucial injuries. Robyn Regehr's MCL, Cory Sarich's broken foot, Daymond Langkow's two broken hands, and Dion Phaneuf's fractured ribs, wonky hip and other injuries were simply too much to overcome. But the injuries, in my mind, all have an underlying cause: the collapse in which they blew a 10 point lead on the division after the trade deadline. It is true that even before the meltdown accelerated after the deadline, the Flames' entire second line was injured. But was that really the reason the Flames lost to Tampa Bay, Atlanta, and Toronto, among others, in their two week road trip to start March? Was it the reason Miikka Kiprusoff looked burned out in these games and others? Was it the reason the Flames' indescribably awful powerplay strategy finally starting costing them crucial games? And yes, was it the reason Olli Jokinen, Michael Cammalleri and Jarome Iginla disappeared when they needed them the most? These were the true reasons for the collapse. Most of these reasons have fairly simple explanations. I believe that if the Flames had not been desperately trying to gain back the division they outright gave away, the injuries that ultimately happened in the final regular season games – Robyn Regehr's MCL being the killer – would not have happened the way they did.

The second part of my autopsy – a detailed look forward at what will be a long offseason for the Flames – will come sometime later this week (I'm aiming for the next two days). But let me just say some general things the Flames have to do. The first thing they have to do is to fire Mike Keenan AND assistant Rich Preston. It may be seen as a scapegoat, but the simple fact is that Keenan has proven himself to be an outdated coach who is not right for this team. Two of his key coaching strategies – riding his top players to the point of exhaustion, and not practicing the powerplay – were detrimental to the team's success. After a year where I thought he was too harsh on Miikka Kiprusoff, he wasn't harsh enough, refusing to play Kiprusoff a human amount of games, resulting in the goalie burning out for the second straight season. In Preston's case, the man is a little-known assistant (outside of Calgary) who has done an incredible amount of damage to the Flames organization for years with his absolutely abysmal powerplay strategy. It is absolutely ridiculous that an NHL team should have its players standing in one spot for entire powerplays, and unless he changes it to something drastically more modern he is stealing money from the franchise.

The general consensus seems to be that it's high time for the Flames to finally take a good hard look, from top to bottom, at the organization's management. Nobody is safe, nor should they be. After a season where management made it clear another early exit was unacceptable, a season where they had one of the highest payrolls in the league, and a season where the general manager swung for the fences at the deadline, there has to be some accountability. In part two of this blog I will take a more detailed look at individual players, the general manager, team philosophy, and what the long offseason will hold for the Flames.

Though I'm already repressing memories of this season and series, here's some general thoughts on the season:

- The Flames' best defenseman this series was Cory Sarich. After questioning his contract for two years, I finally understand his importance to this team.

- Positives to be taken from this season are the development of Eric Nystrom, David Moss and Rene Bourque. Nystrom is developing into a great role player; he was the Flames most consistently good forward in the final two months of the season, including playoffs. Moss broke out with 20 goals, was a valuable secondary scorer and is now signed to a great 3 year contract worth a bargain price of $1.3M per. Bourque was the most pleasant surprise. He was one of the big question marks going in when it was clear he would be the second line left wing, but couldn't have delivered more with a great two way game. I only wonder if he is injury prone, because next season he may be the top line LW.

- Though the Olli Jokinen trade indisputably failed, I still think it was a risk that had to be taken because I still don't think Matthew Lombardi would have been a good enough top line center.

- I'm still waiting for the injury Jarome Iginla has been battling all year to be revealed. It's either that or he's on the decline.

- My opinion of Dion Phaneuf has improved now that it has been revealed that he has been battling a bad hip all year (requiring surgery), and has played since March with broken ribs. Oddly, he was playing his best hockey of the season in the final games and playoffs.

- You can wait for Part 2 for me to elaborate but I am on the fence about Sutter.

- The only memory from this season that I might not repress is being in attendance for the game where Iginla became the Flames' all-time points and goals leader, March 1 against Tampa Bay. Unfortunately, it was one of the Flames' ugliest defensive games of the year and, in retrospect, was the beginning of the end.

- For all the attention given to Iginla's struggles this playoffs, not enough credit was given to Chicago's shutdown duo of Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook. I feel the pair might be two of the most underrated defensemen in the league. And it is just ridiculous to even have Iginla and Joe Thornton in the same sentence when discussing playoffs. Iginla had one bad playoffs this year, Thornton's had several.

- I think that's about it for Part 1. If you made it through this wall of text, please leave a comment to commemorate your achievement.

–Alex Hamilton

(Round 2 Predictions:

Canucks in 6 – Luongo isn't burned out, unlike Kipper was, and so can match whatever Khabibulin's got or better it. And the Canucks can also match the Hawks' speed, unlike Calgary.

Wings in 7 – I dunno, it seems the Wings are on again, if they weren't before. Could be easily wrong.

Caps in 7 – Cannot wait for this, though I dread the Crosby vs. AO vs. Malkin debate to end all Crosby vs. AO vs. Malkin debates. The Caps are who I'm pulling for right now, they're fun to watch and I'm a huge fan of AO and Mike Green.

Bruins in 6 – I probably shouldn't pick against my Cinderella team but I'll do it anyway.)

No matter what adjective you use to describe the Flames' effort last night, there can't be any excuses or anything positive to come from their Game 5 pasting by the Blackhawks.

Mike Keenan admitted after the game that his team was not prepared, and took the blame for it. This game was certainly the same as every other game I have seen where I have been shaken my head at Keenan's coaching. Falling behind by three goals early and quickly? Check. Getting outplayed in every facet of the game? Check. Not calling a timeout? Check. His only coaching answer being to pull Miikka Kiprusoff? Check. I have seen this game too many times, and there is absolutely no excuse for keeping the outdated Keenan behind the bench if the Flames do not win Games 6 and 7. I could only laugh at the futility of Keenan calling a timeout in the third period, down 5-1 with a two man advantage. They followed the timeout with the powerplay which managed to disgust me a little more again, as they do every game. I would pay to see what horrific strategy Rich Preston maps out during these timeouts.

In all fairness, Kiprusoff was not good last night. He seemed slow on the second goal (may have been the third goal, correct me if I'm wrong) picking up a rebound bounce from the boards, and the fourth goal he allowed, which came just after Dustin Boyd had gotten the Flames within two, was an indisputable soft goal. But just like almost every other bad game by Kiprusoff, the team in front of him did absolutely nothing to show that they deserved the win either. 

The Flames go into Game 6 at home with their season on the line. Losing this series means a lot of very serious questions in the offseason. One of them that should be addressed if they lose – the outdated and inefficient coaching – was highlighted tonight. It was the worst playoff game I have seen the Flames play since the slaughter that was the 2007 first round series against Detroit.

–Alex Hamilton

(It's not that I think the players are blameless. Jarome Iginla also admitted he was awful – 1 shot on goal and a -3 – and next to no players on the Flames could brag about their performance. It's just that, as I've said, I've seen this game too many times for me to blame it completely on the players. Mike Keenan's knee jerk reaction of yanking his goaltender, which has successfully rallied the team ONCE in two seasons – in that situation it was more a gigantic hit than a goaltending switch which turned around the game – is emblematic of his outdated coaching style, as is, in part, the fundamentally wrong power play. I wish Keenan could elaborate on how the team was unprepared for this game, considering the momentum they had going in. ) 

The Flames never make it easy on their fans. They managed to blow a 4-1 lead in the space of seven minutes, and were one bad period away from virtually guaranteeing another first round exit, but on the backs of a new top line of Eric Nystrom, Olli Jokinen, and Jarome Iginla, they have made this series up for grabs. It may have been a wild game but the Flames did what they had to, and now it's anyone's series.

The new top line – formed when Rene Bourque was a last-minute scratch – was the number one reason Calgary won this game. Who to start on though? You have Eric Nystrom, who's starting to channel his dad with his knack for big goals (Eric has also been the most consistent Flame in my view for awhile now.) There's Olli Jokinen, who is finally looking a bit like the player he did in the games immediately following the trade. I had said Game 3 was his best as a Flame when he set up Bourque's important goal late in the second; tonight he blew that game out of the water. And of course Jarome Iginla, who channelled his anger from the end of Game 3 in the exact way the Flames needed. He tied the game up on the powerplay, assisted on Jokinen's second goal, and stripped Brent Seabrook of the puck to seal the deal with an empty netter. All three players were gargantuan tonight.

Had things turned out differently in the third, I'd probably be writing a 1,400 word rant right now instead of a 630 word, optimistic blog. It is no mystery to me why the Flames managed to blow a 4-1 lead in the space of 10:11 in the second. It was simply the same reason they blew leads in Games 1 and 2: they let up. This time was undoubtedly the worst, and reiterated a few of my talking points. The Flames stopped hitting the Blackhawks after the 4-1 goal, and couldn't keep up with Chicago's speed as a result. And on the few chances they had to make up the lead they were losing, they tried to get too pretty, attempting difficult passes when they should have just been shooting and crashing the net when trying to go for the jugular. If the Flames can fix these problems, I will like their chances a lot more. And as hopeful as I am right now, the problems clearly still exist and will be a key factor in what is now a three game series.

Those problems aren't the only key factors. Another one in my mind is, can Olli keep it up? He has been great in select games – the last two being his best – but the problem has been him disappearing following these periods of dominance. If he keeps up this play for the next few games, he could well end up being THE difference maker in this series. Another thing becoming a growing factor is the Flames' injuries. Two more hit the deck tonight, with Craig Conroy going down after just 4:38 in ice time, and Daymond Langkow leaving after a nasty looking blocked shot to the abdominal region. The good news is that the Flames have an extra day to rest before Game 5. I can only hope these are day to day.

Having time to nurse injuries is the positive thing for me about Game 5 being not until Saturday. The negative thing is the delay in one of the top three series so far in the playoffs. I truly believe now that it is a new series. 

–Alex Hamilton

(Unrelated note: I don't know how many people have read my last few blogs, I would appreciate comments if you do read this one though. Just a favor.) 

The Flames successfully got back in the series at home tonight with an energetic 4-2 win over the Blackhawks. It was not a perfect homecoming, but it was the Flames' most complete effort to date in this series. Ultimately the Flames won primarily because they got their best effort yet from Olli Jokinen, because they finally got some luck, and because they brought their A game in the third to blow the game open.

In all honesty, I wasn't that impressed by Calgary's offense the first two periods. Eric Nystrom managed to get a huge tying goal after the Blackhawks' early powerplay goal, and Miikka Kiprusoff preserved the tie with some huge saves. The Flames' ludicrous (I love coming up with new adjectives to describe it every game) power play was on display twice. The passing game looked at its worst. Yet, the big play came from Jokinen. His check behind the Chicago net created a turnover to the stick of Rene Bourque, who threw it at Khabibulin's pads, where it somehow eluded him from the right post.

The Flames finally had some luck, and here's where I have to give the Flames credit for how they kept their lead in the third period. David Moss banged home Adam Pardy's rebound early, then crashed the net to deflect a Curtis Glencross shot to make it 4-1. This type of offense was the kind the Flames have needed, in my opinion, to strive for instead of the prettier style they seem to have thought they are capable of. The Flames were at their best during the third period, unlike the previous two games where the third killed them. 

I cannot complain about the way Jokinen or Miikka Kiprusoff played tonight. When Michael Cammalleri and Jarome Iginla virtually disappeared (more on Iggy later), Jokinen had to be the one to step up among the Flames' top players. Kiprusoff, meanwhile, made 36 saves on 38 shots, including some big saves when the game was tied. An unheralded star for the Flames was also Cory Sarich, who was the Flames' best defenseman and made the sort of intangible plays that make a shutdown defenseman. 

The Flames' hitting game was what most impressed me. It is obvious the Blackhawks have a speed advantage but keeping up physical play will be crucial if the Flames want to win this series. 

The stage was set for Game 4 in dramatic fashion when 64 penalty minutes were handed out during two scrums in the final minute. Adam Burish, after three games of egging on Jarome Iginla, finally got to the Flames captain when he dropped his stick to go after Rene Bourque, prompting an unwelcome response from Iggy. How Iginla responds to this will be a key subplot going forward. He is obviously angry now; Pierre McGuire said during the game that the Blackhawks trash talk to Iggy was the worst he has ever seen to a star player. After being almost completely shut down by Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook, one must wonder whether Iggy is ready to break out. Making Iginla angry typically hasn't been a good thing for opposition in the past.

Unless the Flames continue their inconsistent ways, Game 4 should be fantastic. If the Flames win it is a new series, if they lose, well, you know me.

–Alex Hamilton 

It seemed like a virtual repeat of Game 1, only worse. The Flames came out flying and more desperate than the Blackhawks, and came up with the early lead, only to blow it and drop a heartbreaking 3-2 final. It was an even worse finish than Game 1, and now the Flames find themselves in a hole that they have not once been able to come back from in franchise history. 
Much like Game 1, the Flames had more jump than the Hawks to start. Jarome Iginla, after being virtually invisible in Game 1, came out and showed some of his old dominance. The Flames finally converted on the powerplay to take a 1-0 lead – just like most Flames powerplay goals, they got lucky; Nikolai Khabibulin bobbling the puck off a point shot allowed Iginla to stuff it in. The Flames even finally got some good luck to go up 2-0. It seemed like the Flames' night until the second period hit.  The Flames lost their legs in the second period and never really recovered from Jonathan Toews making it 2-1 less than a minute into the second. The Hawks just seemed to want it more, and outplayed the Flames in every important aspect. Whatever first time playoff jitters the Hawks had is probably entirely gone now. Once again, the Flames squandered their opportunity, and blew what I considered a must win game. Now they go home with a series deficit they have never been able to come back from in the history of their franchise. From a practical standpoint, though, the Hawks speed advantage is really showing right now. The Flames just have not been able to match the Hawks' crisp passes, swift attack and well-oiled machine of an offense. The loss of Robyn Regehr is proving every bit as crucial as anticipated. I have to give credit where credit is due here to Toews and the Hawks. Toews is showing why he will be one of THE players in the next decade or more right now. He is showing every bit the kind of captaincy that the Flames used to be able to rely on from Jarome Iginla and are lacking right now. His game winner with less than a minute left in the second could well prove to be the turning point in this series. And it's not only the young forwards that are helping Chicago get to a 2-0 lead. Duncan Keith, who I consider the most disgustingly underrated defenseman in the league, is shutting down Iginla as well as anyone. The Hawks third and fourth line agitators are also doing an excellent job of getting in the Flames' heads. On the other end, Eric Nystrom is the only one on the Flames' fourth line doing anything worthwhile right now. For all the domination Khabibulin is displaying right now, Miikka Kiprusoff is displaying an equal amount of mediocrity. The first goal he allowed in Game 1 was an inexcusably soft goal that killed the Flames' momentum. Toews' game winning goal may have been an atrocious defensive breakdown by the Flames – Toews broke through three defenders to the rebound unmolested – but it was also a terrible rebound by Kiprusoff. Kipper is looking worse than he did in last year's playoffs, when his bad goaltending cost the Flames Game 7. The two games so far have had a common theme for the Flames that pretty well summarizes their season – blown opportunity. The Flames head home down 2-0, a deficit they have never been able to come back from in franchise history. I managed to talk myself into thinking the Flames had some chance before the series, but I'm not sure how much longer I can keep it up. If the Flames manage to win the next two at home to tie it I might be cautiously optimistic, but right now this team looks just as mediocre as every other first round exit team they have had post-lockout.  –Alex Hamilton (The one thing the Flames have going for them is this. Kipper almost single handedly stole two games at home in 2007 to tie their first round series with Detroit, and the Flames were much more woefully overmatched in that series than in this one. They were even a David Moss hit crossbar away from going to Game 7. So I'm not going to say it's impossible).  
   

Twelve seconds is all it took for the Hawks to take a 1-0 series lead on the Flames, and nullify an otherwise decent opening game effort by the Flames. Though managing to lose the game in precisely 12 seconds is unbelievable (though I'll get to the goal later) I think the Flames blew an opportunity here.

I think the Flames likely win this game if one of three things happen:

1. They convert the 4-minute powerplay at the end of the first period. The Hawks looked fairly flat for the first half of the game. Khabibulin was keeping them in it, but I think if the Flames go up 2-0 here they don't look back. However, I said the first half of the game for a reason…

2. Miikka Kiprusoff doesn't let in that terrible Cam Barker goal in the second that tied the game at 1-1. Everything changed after this.

3. Mike Keenan doesn't inexplicably decide to play trap after Mike Cammalleri's goal that put the Flames back in the lead. This was a dumb decision on multiple levels – the Flames had their two best defensive defenseman out and they hadn't really played trap much all year anyway; they had gotten on just fine before in the game. The Flames laying back after Cammy's goal – when even Pierre McGuire, the biggest Flames optimist among the most notable pundits, notes concern almost immediately when noticing Calgary's new strategy, you know you're in trouble – led to not one of three Flames defenders being able to stop Martin Havlat from sending the game to the third-shortest OT in NHL history. Which reminds me of a possible fourth reason…

 If the Flames brought on their own fate, what ultimately happened to kill them tonight was still unfair. Andrew Ladd got away with what I think was blatant goaltender interference on Havlat's winning goal. 

Mike Cammalleri's sucker-punch on Havlat may well get him suspended for Game 2. I estimated going into this series that getting at least a split in the first two games would be crucial for the Flames' chances. Now, I don't want to call Game 2 a must win yet, but it might be.

–Alex Hamilton 

Terry Shilton has beaten me to the punch in being the first to preview the Flames/Blackhawks series, but I'll still try my best to steal his readership. The collapse finally was completed over the weekend, as the Flames officially lost the Northwest Division and now face their most dreaded playoff opponent – the Blackhawks – without home ice advantage. Suffice to say, you can add another person to what looks like a long list of people writing off the Flames for this series. You know how it goes, I'd love to be wrong, etc, etc.

The first thing going against the Flames is the fact that the Blackhawks swept them in the regular season, with only one game – a 3-2 overtime loss at the 'Dome in December – being decided by less than 3 goals. It seemed the Flames had trouble all year coping with the speed advantage of the Hawks. Nikolai Khabibulin also continued his lifetime dominance over the Flames. At the start of February, when the Flames and Hawks played their final regular season game (5-2 triumph for Chicago at the 'Dome) I considered Chicago my most-feared matchup, but didn't think it could happen since the Hawks were looking like they'd be in the no. 4 or 5 slot and the Flames had a then-insurmountable lead on the no. 3 position. Now, the nightmare has happened. It would be bad enough if the Flames had not incurred a horrific string of injuries in their failed scramble to try and regain the division. It seems that Robyn Regehr will be out for the equivalent of at least one playoff round. This is the most crucial injury, even without the others it would be absolutely devastating. (In the Flames' most embarrassing loss to Chicago – a 6-1 pounding in November – Regehr was a PLUS ONE.) Also in the sick bay is Dion Phaneuf (day to day; though unfortunately he should still have to play extra minutes). Curtis Glencross is also day to day. The only positive news on this front is that with the salary cap now a nonfactor, the Flames can ice a full roster. Also, it has been reported that Cory Sarich and Rene Bourque will return. Bourque is especially crucial. Ever since his injury in late February, the Flames' chemistry has suffered severely (his presence as the second line RW made Mike Keenan settle on set lines.) He is invaluable on the defensive side of things and was on pace for 30 goals and 30 assists. He also tied for the lead in points in the season series with 3 points (with Todd Bertuzzi).

Perhaps the most crucial matchup is Nikolai Khabibulin against Miikka Kiprusoff. Khabibulin owns the Flames historically and already won one playoff series against them. Khabibulin essentially split Chicago's starts with Cristobal Huet, whereas Miikka Kiprusoff started almost all games and the subject of him potentially burning out was the most frequent debate about the Flames all season. Kipper burned out in the playoffs last year, and his spotty play the final two months can't give anyone confidence.

The dreaded “c” word has been envoked in a front-page Herald sports article already regarding Olli Jokinen. No, not cancer, the other dreaded “c” word – chemistry. It's no secret that the once-highly touted top line of the Flames has evaporated. If Olli Jokinen can't turn it around this playoffs, all the nasty accusations about him will be proven true (though I still won't call him a cancer until it's proven). Mike Cammalleri also has something to prove. His first ever playoffs might be something that proves a factor in how well he cashes in as an unrestricted free agent. (Oh who am I kidding.) Jarome Iginla has always been at his best in the playoffs with the Flames, but this year he's going into the playoffs coming off what can be considered his worst season in seven years. It goes without saying that the top line has to somehow come together.

Ultimately, I am a realist, and I just have to say that the negatives for the Flames (no Robyn Regehr, injured Dion Phaneuf, possibly no Curtis Glencross, no powerplay, a possibly burned out goaltender, no home ice, and obviously, a level of play the past month and a half that couldn't get them close to the playoffs over a full season) vastly outweigh the positives (finally the return of the full second line, a clean slate, finally a full roster, no Mark Lee doing play-by-play – oh wait I guess that last one is more of a positive for me than the team.) I can't really give myself false hope. Blackhawks in 5, because I have a hard time believing that even Calgary could lose 8 consecutive times, in the regular season and playoffs, to the same team. Actually maybe I have a certain obligation to be more optimistic as a Flames fan. Hawks in 6. I'd love to be wrong. Just like last season versus San Jose, if the Flames start this series with a split, I think they could have a chance. That is as optimistic as I can get. Actually, I feel terrible officially predicting my own team to lose like that. There are certain obligations as a fan I must fulfill – even though I know nothing I do or say will have any bearing on the result – and one of those is to, when writing a blog like this, to at least say HOW the Flames can win such a series. Here it is: I think the Flames can win, and should win in seven games, if all the following things happen: if the Regehr-less defense, and/or Miikka Kiprusoff, can keep the Hawks' high flying offense reasonably under control; if the top line – at least two of three players – comes through; if the finally fully healthy second line can be as good as they were before Rene Bourque's injury; if the powerplay isn't a significant factor somehow; and if the Flames can put the last two and a half months behind them. I think these can happen, I really do. Flames in seven. There. Homer obligation fulfilled. And just to show you I mean business, I'll change one of my predictions – I think the Flyers will win now.

–Alex Hamilton

(The rest of my playoff predictions.

East: Bruins in 7 – people are writing off the Habs, and they are probably right, but I have a hard time seeing a Bruins-Habs series being a complete blowout

Washington in 5 – maybe the only series I'm really confident about

Canes in 7 – on the fence about this one. I really like Carolina as a sleeper.

Flyers in 7 – have absolutely no clue what will happen here. Uh oh Doug Maclean just picked the Pens on Calgary radio, maybe I'll rethink the Pens

West: Sharks in 7 – I just can't see San Jose losing in the first round.

Wings in 6 – Another series I'm not sure about, IMO it could easily be an upset.

Canucks in 6 – St. Louis will be good very soon but I don't think they're ready yet.)