The NFL season can be a lot like losing your V-Card. You wait so long for it to happen, but once you finally get going it seems to end before you can say Denarius Moore. Having said that, we have reached the halfway point of the NFL season, and it seems like just yesterday analysts hypothesized that the Cowboys had declared they are “a team to be reckoned with” on opening night by beating the Giants. A lot has changed in the NFL after eight games, and that is no different for the Broncos. Halfway through the year we have learned:

• Peyton Manning proved that any questions regarding his return to elite status had all the validity of Donald Trump’s election night twitter feed
• Demaryius Thomas looks like the next coming of Terrell Owens (minus the attitude). That means explosive plays and physical dominance to go with asinine drops, boneheaded mistakes, and a general lack of trust
• Von “the Don” Miller continues giving any offensive lineman offers they cannot refuse, generally terrorizing anyone who is unfortunate enough to get in his way
• The Broncos Offensive line is a very good unit that has become elite with the help of Mannings quick release and general saavy
  

So if the Broncos win-loss record cannot tell us if they are a true contender, what can? Midway through the season, the Broncos have established themselves as a very balanced team, ranking in the top six in DVOA in both offense and defense, ranking third in offense and sixth in defense (all stats per Football Outsiders. For explanation of DVOA, read here). Is having a highly rated offense and defense a predictor of postseason success?

I decided to look at all teams who finished in the top ten in DVOA for both offense and defense and see how they did in the postseason since 2003. There turned out to be 25 such teams, but since we are looking for playoff success all teams that did not make the playoffs were eliminated, bringing the total to 20 teams in 9 years.

Top Ten DVOA Offense and Defense and Playoff Results

Out of those 20 teams, 35% made it to the Conference Finals, 20% made the Super Bowl and 15% (3) won the Super Bowl. If you want to go one step further and limit it to only teams in the top eight in both offense and defense, those percentages improve to 50% making it to the Conference Finals, 33% playing in the Super Bowl and 25% winning the Super Bowl (12 teams total). So although the Broncos win-loss record would not suggest a Super Bowl team, their top ten rank in DVOA in both offense and defense suggest they are.

(Note: The other teams with duel top ten ratings this year are: San Francisco, Green Bay, Houston and the New York Giants. Or, in other terms, the legitimate contenders)

The Chargers front seven is nasty. I’m talking foot fungus nasty. The kind of thing you see on Tosh.0 and cringe nasty. Pure, unadulterated filth. With a combination of high draft picks with speed and athleticism, the veteran know-how of Linebackers Shaun Phillips, Takeo Spikes and Jarret Johnson, and the hard-hitting leadership of Donald Butler the Chargers have made life difficult for opposing offensive lines, specifically in the run game. The Chargers have only given up 74 yards on the ground (5th in the league) and 3.7 yards per carry, and they have not been feasting on the Shonne Green’s of the world. They have shut down Darren McFadden, Chris Johnson, Michael Turner, Jamal Charles and New Orleans multi-faceted attack, flying all over the field and producing big plays.

If the Chargers can make the Broncos offense one-dimensional, Denver will be in trouble. The Broncos need to keep the ball away from a fired up San Diego squad in front of a raucous Monday Night San Diego crowd in America’s Finest city, and usually the best way to do so is to run the ball. If they cannot, the Chargers will be sure to take advantage by grabbing hold of an early lead. This will force the Broncos to almost exclusively pass to get the chunks of yards needed to keep up with San Diego.

Peyton can dink and dunk the Chargers all he wants, but with sure tacklers Eric Weddle and Quentin Jammer anchoring the secondary, counting on YAC is not the best way to put up points. This Chargers team can be had deep, but unfortunately that is not Manning’s forte (at least this decade). The Chargers should be able to grab an early lead they can build upon throughout the game, then end it with steady running from Ryan Mathews and Jackie Battle.

Final Score
DEN 20 SD 28

Tom Brady is kinda good. The dude had three Super Bowl rings before he was as old as rookie Quarterback Brandon Weeden. He is on the short list for best Quarterback, and player, ever. So in order to beat the Patriots you have to beat Tom Brady, and over time that has not proven to be an easy task.

So how do you make America’s Golden Boy shake in his Uggs? Bring some pressure. Brady goes from a otherworldly laser-throwing uber-Quarterback to a mere mortal with pressure in his face (albeit a mere mortal who goes home to Gisele). In 2011, Brady averaged only 3.8 yards per pass with pressure in his face, as opposed to 8.9 yards per pass with time to throw. The only problem is that Brady was only under pressure on 20.6% of his passes, which ranked 6th among all Quarterbacks with 250 or more attempts (all stats via Football Outsiders Almanac 2011).

Brady, I will find you. And I will kill you.

Final Score
DEN 34 NE 31

So the Broncos took care of business against the Raiders. They torched a team missing both starting cornerbacks through the air and gashed a team without much starter level talent at linebacker on the ground. The defense made big plays, with Von “the Don” Miller making many offers Carson Palmer could not refuse, with partner in crime Elvis Dumervil firmly in tow. McGahee offered his usually mix of effective running without much excitement or explosion, and Peyton has proved he will show enough flashes of brilliance to induce an epileptic seizure.

However, the Broncos beating the tar out of a team whose main bragging rights consist of having good kickers and a great makeup crew for their fans does not tell us a whole lot about this team. Where do the Broncos stand in the NFL? 4 weeks in, a quarter of the season in the books, it is time to rank the top 15 teams in the NFL.

1. San Francisco 49ers
Yes, they are 3-1. But look at their schedule: they won at Green Bay, home against the Lions, lost at Minnesota (who is 3-1) and demolished the Jets in New York. They play fantastic defense, avoid mistake on offense, and should cruise to 12-14 wins.

2. Atlanta Falcons
Explosive offense and gritty defense that can win any style of game. If they can get an early lead with the passing game, Turner and the defense can finish. Oh and by the way: Matt Ryan is on pace over 4600 yards, 44 touchdowns and 8 picks. So they got that going for them.

3. Houston Texans
Their only flaw thus far is they have had a pretty easy schedule, but boy have they responded. Outscoring opponents 126-56, they have a big test against the Jets. if they cannot grab a lead early and let Foster and Tate finish the game, can they put teams away?

4. New England
New England stands right now at an incredibly unimpressive 2-2 (losing to two 3-1 teams), yet this has the makings of the best team in football. We know they can pass, and that should only get better when Aaron Hernandez gets back. But if they can run with Ridley and Bolden, and play defense? Uh-Oh.

This guy is winning a Super Bowl?

6. Arizona Cardinals
They are 4-0, with three wins against quality opponents (New England, Philly and Seattle). However, you do need to play offense to win games, and this team is dreadful on that side of the ball. When the fate of your season may come down to Kevin Kolb driving down the field, I am going to be a bit pessimistic. Having said that, 12 months ago if you sub Cardinals for 49ers and Kolb for Alex Smith, and this would read exactly the same…

7. Philadelphia Eagles
You know about the turnovers, Andy Reid kinda sorta saying Vick might get benched, and the consistently erratic play, yet despite all of that they are 3-1. Probably the most balanced team in the NFL, they are some smart QB play away from jumping 5 or 6 spots.

8. Green Bay Packers
The defense looks better this year, the offense looks considerably worse. Granted, they have gone up against three of the best defenses in football so far, but they just are not clicking like they did last year. If Greg Jennings can stay healthy and the line can give Rodgers time, they should be just fine.

9. Chicago Bears
This team is nasty. Nasty on defense, nasty to watch on offense. I know Jay Cutler just had a great night against the Cowboys, but he is not a great Quarterback. His highest QB rating came in his rookie year (88.5), and he generally makes decisions that can only be described as Grossman-esque. They will struggle against great teams and beat up on bad teams.

10. Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are basically copying Jim Harbaugh’s strategy from last year. Diesel running game. All Day. Incredible returner/special teams. See Harvin, Percy. Defense that can get after the QB and stop the run. Jared Allen will hunt me down and murder me if I say no. Quick, athletic quarterback who runs a great play-action. Let me think, or better yet, let me Ponder. They may not be as talented on defense as the 49ers, but they are doing a good impression.

Ryan Mathews, AKA Mr. Glass

11. San Diego Chargers
They have a fast and physical front seven that will be very difficult to run against, and an offense that always can put up points. If Ryan Mathews could only stay healthy this team could be dangerous. Also, if I could only increase my vertical by 30 inches, grow half a foot, become really really fast and develop great hands I could be a Wide Receiver in the NFL. I don’t think either will happen any time soon.

12. New York Giants
There line is not very good. Gone are the days of the Giants being a hard nosed football team that won with a power rushing attack and a strong defense. They are a finesse team that hopes to outscore teams, then unleash the hounds (Tuck, JPP and Osi). This is a team that will play well against teams with a strong passing attack and will struggle against defense-first teams.

13. Denver Broncos
Only losses are to the teams ranked 2 and 3. They have an aggressive defense that will only get better with experience. If Manning can manage the game effectively, knowing when to be aggressive and when to take what the defense is giving him, this team can be a contender. Given the fact that this is Peyton Manning we are talking about, this team will be contender.

14. Seattle Seahawks
They have the best secondary in football. By far. What was obscured Monday night in the way the game ended against the Packers was how dominant Kam Chancellor and company were against one of the better crops of receivers in the league. They all hit, can cover, and hit some more. Combine that with a steady pass rush, you get the makings of a dominant defense. The offense, well, the offense is terrible.

15. Cincinnati Bengals
Boy is this team fun to watch on offense. A.J. Green looks like the second coming of Randy Moss, Andrew Hawkins is dynamic with the football and Armon Binns shows flashes of dominance. The defense has been bad, but they are young and played really well last year. If they can get a pass rush, look out.

The Broncos have a fast and aggressive defense that prides itself on getting to the quarterback and making hits on running backs in the backfield. When that does not happen they can be exposed, and in the first half yesterday the defense might as well be called Kate Middleton because they were exposed for all to see.

Throughout the season the Broncos linebackers at the snap of the ball tend to lean and take steps toward the line of scrimmage, eager to make a big play. Joe Mays seems to be particularly susceptible, and on some plays actually took off on a run toward the line at the snap of the ball (these were not blitzes because a few times he backpedaled after he read pass). This is a fine strategy if the linebacker is lucky enough for the running back to come right at them, but in pretty much all other scenarios this can lead to the defense getting burned. It seems like the Texans did their homework, as they assaulted the Broncos with play-action passes and exhibited patience in the running game to open up an early lead that they would never relinquish.

You cannot blame the play-action bombs (two touchdowns, two drops by Andre Johnson) on the linebacker not getting into coverage, but you have to think this is more a system wide decision to be aggressive in the run game. This reflects the coaches confidence that the bookend rushers (Dumervil and Miller) can pressure passers so the Quarterback does not have time to take advantage of the Broncos porous secondary. Well, on both of the long play-action touchdowns the pressure did not get there and big plays were for the taking. The linebackers over-eagerness hurt the Broncos on several crucial first-down conversions. On these play-action passes the tight ends were so open no Broncos defender was close enough to shout at Owen Daniels or Garret Graham, let alone defend them. This led to long drives, further extended by Arian Foster and Ben Tate’s willingness to let the first surge of defenders run downfield pass them, leading to one-on-one opportunities on the second level. Neither had any long, explosive runs, but plenty of three to five yard runs that kept Peyton Manning and the Broncos passing attack off the field.

The defense was able to make stops when the Texans took the foot off the gas and played conservatively (similar to last week against the Falcons), but the damage had been done. They had dug themselves into too large a hole and no amount of last gasp heroics could save the Denver Broncos.

The strength of the 2011 Broncs passing attack was the deep ball, and the Broncos two returning receivers, Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas, reflect that. Both stand over 6’3″ and 215 pounds, and have excellent body control for their considerable size. This skill set, combined with the fact that on short passes Tebow had all of the accuracy of a drunk guy aiming for a urinal, led to the Broncos sending both receivers on routes over 16 yards downfield at least a third of the time (Decker: 36%, Thomas: 33%, per Football Outsiders Almanac 2012). This stretched the defense, opening rushing lanes for Willis McGahee to have his best season since Hannah Montana was 15 and not making every effort to become this generation’s Courtney Love.

Obviously, with the transition from Tebow to Peyton Manning the offense needed to adapt, but it is undeniable that his two primary receivers are deep threats. The problem with this is Peyton’s arm is seriously weaker than it was 2010. Through week 2, Peyton can not put the zip on intermediate and deep routes needed to avoid the safeties from flying over and making a play, more resembling Chad Pennington’s noodle arm then the Manning we grew to know and love in the 2000s. Demaryius Thomas has not seen a dip in his production, as his supreme athleticism means he can catch short routes and make defenders miss. Eric Decker is not that kind of athlete and has been a non-factor on offense. The fact that Brandon Stokley is more prominently involved than Decker in the passing game can only be described as troubling.

It should be a frustrating afternoon for Willis

Final Score:
DEN 13 HOU 20