Cavs fans should have known the honeymoon of going .500 would end.  The Cavs were .500 without beating any team that was .500 or better.  In other words, their schedule so far was fairly soft and they weren’t tested.  They will be tested in the coming weeks and if this past week is any indication, it could be pretty ugly.  They suffered their worst loss in the history of the franchise on Friday against the Bulls and Derrick Rose wasn’t even playing.  The next night, on the heels of a back to back, they had another crushing defeat to a playoff team, this time to the Atlanta Hawks.  This team is a go-to scorer away from contending with these teams, but they may as well be 4 pieces away the way they look.

Anthony Parker only played in 3 of the 4 games and totaled 7 points.  Yes, 7 points.  His D was also pretty bad, he got destroyed by Rip Hamilton and Joe Johnson obviously, but he also gave up 24 points to DJ Augustin, who was playing the 2 a good deal.  The one game he didn’t start, Boobie Gibson was able to contain monta Ellis.  On the other wing, Casspi has actually been picking it up a bit recently.  He is scoring over 11 ppg and grabbing 4.5 rebounds, and playing solid D.  He is still a below average scorer for a SF, but he is no longer a huge liability.

The only real consistent position right now has been PG.  Off the bench, Sessions has been good for a solid 8 points every game and around 4-5 assists.  In the starting position, Irving has been the Cavs only consistent scorer and the only scorer who scored at least 10 points in the last 4 games.  During this stretch, he is scoring 18.5 points per game and getting 4.5 assists which is still great, but he has cooled down a tiny bit from his hot streak.  This is still very impressive for a rookie, especially considering he is shooting very efficiently too.

Irving is the only scorer this team can rely upon.  Casspi has been consistent recently, but he isn’t good enough to be reliable.  Jamison can drop 19 one game and drop 4 the next, which is exactly what happened during this streak.  On the bench, Alonzo Gee is a nice scorer but streaky and Tristan Thompson has shown some promise but is still very far away in terms of being a reliable scorer.  The cavs 2nd most reliable scorer may be Anderson Varejao, which speaks to the offensive void on this squad.

Christian Eyenga has been called up from the D-League.  It is worth mentioning as Cavs news, but as a player he is fairly irrelevant now and not likely to help the Cavs.

Their schedule coming up is brutal, with 7 out of the next 8 teams they face being playoff teams from last year and the 9th team they face being the LA Clippers who are a legitimate playoff contender now.  The Cavs are still winless on the 2nd game of a back-to-back, but Byron Scott won’t make excuses.  They have 3 of those in the next 9 games and they face the Heat for the first game in 2 of those 3 (including the game tonight).

I would love to be optimistic, but don’t expect the Cavs to win much more than a couple games in the next 9.

The Cavs have gone 2-4 on this road trip and are 2-3 since the last article.  Considering the expectations of the team, this isn’t too shabby.  Coming into the road trip, they had faced a lot of teams that, like the Cavs, really sucked in ’10-’11.  The combined record of the 3 teams the lost to (Portland, Utah, and the Lakers) is 23-14, winning over 60% of their games.  While they got blown out by Portland, they were able to keep it close in the other 2 and were in both games in the 4th quarter.

The most impressive losing effort (if a loss is ever impressive) was the game vs. the Lakers.  On the 2nd game of a road trip back-to-back after 3 veteran starters had played 30+ minutes, the Cavs put up a valiant effort against one of the best teams in the league and came back to get within a few points of beating the Lakers in The Staples Center.  This was quite a feat considering how poorly the Cavs shot in that game.

 
Wins and losses don’t matter a ton to this team and in fact, some fans wold rather see a loss where the young players play well.  Losing means the Cavs would get a higher lottery pick and a better chance at that go to wing player they sorely are missing.  For Cavs fans, there is no shortage of ways to be pleased recently because the team is competitive and winning and their young players are playing extremely well right now.  Their 2 wins are against teams with an 8-17 record, but you should generally be able to be those bad teams.

The biggest reason the Cavs are being competitive is Kyrie Irving.  Irving was playing well, but he is playing at a very high level currently.  Over the last 5 games, he is averaging 20.4 ppg and 4.8 assists on 52.6% shooting, 37.5% from 3pt, and 94% from the 3 point line.  In short, his scoring right now is about as efficient as you can get.  It’s even more impressive if you just look at the last 4 games where Irving has scored 20 points in every game and shot over 50% from the field in every game including 64.7% against Phoenix where he posted 26 points, the most so far in his career.

On offense, the team really has been kind of Irving and Antwan Jamison.  Jamison has been really hot and cold, but scored 22 points at least 3 times in the last 5 games.  The other 2 games though he scored less than 10 and is very streaky right now.  The nice thing is that he is rebounding better and even in the game against Portland where he scored 3 points, he still contributed 11 rebounds.

The other Cavs rookie Tristan Thompson has been slower to heat up, but he has still played nice recently.  He has scored at least 7 points and grabbed 5 rebounds in the last 4 games.  He is also been solid at blocking shots and for a young post player, he has really limited his fouls recently, averaging 1.5 fouls a game over the last four games.  No one should have had the expectation that Thompson would come out as strong as Irving, but his offensive rebounding and shot blocking have been a nice surprise.

The rest of the team has been pretty steady.  Guys like Ramon Sessions and Anderson Varejao have been steady members of the team and the Cavs still are getting very little offensively from their wing players of Anthony Parker and Omri Casspi (though Casspi has looked slightly better as of late).  While the void on the wing is frustrated, fans should just sit back and enjoy the great play of Irving.

The Cavs have opened up after the lockout with solid performances and a record of .500.  At 3-3, they are showing some very legitimate promise early on in this young season.  Granted, only one game was against a playoff team from 2011 and all of the teams were under .500 in 2010-2011.  Still, we are talking about a .500 record posted by a team that was very competitive for the worst record in the NBA last year.  Before their recent loss to the Raptors, the Cavs had posted a record above .500, for the first time in 14 months.

The Cavs right now are an exciting and athletic bunch with some interesting pieces.  Their starting line-up features Kyrie Irving, Anthony Parker, Omri Casspi, Antwan Jamison, and Anderson Varejao.  So far on the season, Varejao is back to his old self after the injury and Jamison has recovered from a poor 2010-2011 and is scoring quite well.  Anthony Parker is shooting better than he did last year, but he is still mostly just a veteran leader on the floor who can play some D.  The new starters are a story of good and bad.  Casspi has been disappointing and isn’t shooting the ball enough or with enough efficiency, and he is getting into foul trouble.  On the flipside, rookie Irving is having a great start to the season posting 14.2 pts, 3.7 rebounds, 5.3 assists.  He is limiting turnovers while playing good D and making some highlight plays.

The Cavs are developing a really nice bench right now as guys like Alonzo Gee, Ramon Sessions and Tristan Thompson really come out with a lot of energy.  Sessions has improved his D and is a steady PG to stabilize a bench rotation.  Like Irving, he is limiting the turnovers, playing good D, and his shot is keeping the defense honest.  On his wing, Gee has been a nice complementary scorer and looks improved since his stint last year in Cleveland, especially handling the ball.  Thompson has been maybe the biggest spark off the bench, especially on D.  He is leading the team in blocks with a great 1.7 a game.  He still struggles with jump shots and from the free throw line, but his D has been great and he has been great at crashing the offensive glass.

The first 3 players off the bench are great, but the Cavs, like many teams out there, would severely struggle if they have to rely significantly on their 9th or 10th guys in the rotation.  Samardo Samuels is the best of the bunch and is a great low post scorer, but he is extremely turnover prone (4.5 per 36 minutes) and foul prone (7.3 per 36).  Ryan Hollins is just a big body, Harangody is a decent shooter who can play some D, and Eyenga is a good athlete, but none of these guys look that great.

Last year, the Cavs couldn’t shoot the ball, struggled to score, and couldn’t stop other teams from scoring at all.  This year, they aren’t great but they are shooting better, scoring better, and playing better D.

Surprises So Far:  Tristan Thompson’s energy.  Jamison and Gee’s Offense, Irving’s D, Anthony Parker’s shooting, Sessions’ 3 pt shot, defense and shooting overall

Disappointment’s: Omri Casspi, Christian Eyenga, ball handling and rebounding overall

With Thompson and Irving, this team is really going to be exciting to watch in the future.

It’s been a couple months, but it’s time to look back on the Indians season and review how they did and by doing so, be able to figure out what this team can do in the future.  Sometimes its nice to take a little while to let the results sink in.  If you set your expectations in the first couple months in the season, this was a disappointment, but no one was predicting this team getting this close to .500.  The more optimistic predictions were something around 76-86.  Despite long injuries to Shin-Soo Choo, Grady Sizemore, and Travis Hafner, this team was able to compete in the division for most of the season.

The Indians had a lot of questions coming into the season involving many players such as Asdrubal Caberera, Justin masterson, matt LaPorta, and Carlos Santana.  Overall, there were some very mixed results, but there is a lot of room for optimism around this team.

Between Cabrera and Choo, the Indians have a pair of legitimate sluggers for the middle of the order.  They both hit 25 home runs and answered questions about their ability to come back from recent injuries.  They are going to be staples of Indians line-ups to come, but the same will not be said about LaPorta.  This was LaPorta’s breakout year and like the others, he was supposed to be healthy.  He was banged up a lot this year and even when healthy, he struggled at the plate.

The Indians’ biggest problem on offense was injuries.  They lost their top 4 outfielders (michael Brantley, Choo, Sizemore, and Trevor Crowe) all missed significant time due to injury.  Sizemore will always be a question mark, but an outfield of Brantley, Choo, and Kosuke Fukudome with Crowe as the 4th OF would be acceptable.   Injuries also took the season of Travis Hafner.  The offense seemed to have more of a spark when he was in and he gave the Indians a bat pitchers respected.  The Indians desperately need offense from the corner infield, because Hanahan and LaPorta just don’t cut it.  Lonnie Chisenhall showed a lot of promise late in the year, but the Indians are going to need more than relying on a 23 year old who is essentially a rookie.

The Indians pitching staff also so a lot of turnover due to injuries.  Fausto Carmona, Josh Tomlin, mitch Talbot, and Carlos Carrasco all were injured at some point.  Through all this turmoil, the Indians bullpen stayed strong and Justin masterson proved he could be a front of the rotation arm.  Bullpens are very hard to predict, but the young arms the Indians have look good and a few (Tony Sipp and Chris Perez) had success in 2010 too.  Carrasco will miss all of 2012 with Tommy John surgery, but the Indians fortunately were able to find solid back of the rotation guys in David Huff and Jeanmar Gomez.  They both stepped up nicely when the starting pitchers started to fall.

The reason injuries hurt the Indians more than any other team really is their lack of depth.  They had nice players on the major league roster, but your margin of error is low when you have little depth.  Huff and Gomez stepped up in the rotation, but the depth hitters such as Travis Buck and Austin Kearns provided little.  The only depth hitter who showed something was 2B Jason Kipnis who came up to the majors with a spark and was knocking balls out of the park.  He quickly was another victim of the injury bug, though he  will likely start alongside Cabrera in the infield in 2012.

The Indians figured out a lot of things that worked and some things that didn’t.  They figured out a healthy Asdrubal was a great offensive weapon now that he translated his gap power into big bombs.  They also found good players for 2012 at catcher, 2nd, 3rd, and in the corner OF (Brantley).  masterson showed he could be an ace and Tomlin proved he deserved to be in the rotation.  Considering the situation, manny Acta also did a heck of a job keeping this team together.

Part 2 will go over Free Agent acquisitions and hash out the roster & maybe a prediction or two…

Whatever happened in the Browns game on Saturday was going to be a win-win for me.  Obviously, as a Browns fan I want the team to win every game, especially those against the Steelers and the Ravens.  At the same time, I really want a Quarterback in this draft and  if the Browns won out, that would severely limit their chances at being able to take Robert Griffin III without trading up.  It sucks that the Browns lost, but they definitely gave a better effort than many people thought.  People were really down on this team and with a line that was almost 2 TDs (-13.5), 75% of the money in Vegas was on the Ravens.  Even with some bad miscues, the Browns had a shot to win it at the end of the game, but just couldn’t execute.

The Game certainly looked ugly for a while even though it ended up being close.  By about 9 minutes to go in the 2nd quarter, the Browns were down 17-0 and the Ravens had scored on each of their first three drives.  The Browns D wasn’t playing great, and the Ravens got a couple good breaks in the way of a 60 Pass Interference call on mike Adams that was somewhat questionable and a poor throw by Senca Wallace that led to an Interception.  It’s a wonder the Browns even covered after watching their 1st half play.

Just a luck would have it, the one time during the first half the Browns got a drive going, it was blown by mis-communication.  Evan moore caught a pass that everyone thought took him out of bounds, but not everyone realized the clock was still going.  Pat Shurmur was trying to signal to Seneca to spike it and stop the clock but Seneca tried to catch the defense off guard and called a running play.  Needless to say, it failed and the Browns didn’t score.  Some were blaming people in the organization from Shurmur all the way to Holmgren but this lies with a veteran backup outsmarting himself into stupidity.

The Browns 2nd half turned out much better and they showed that there is still some reason to have hope in this team.  Ray Rice ended up not having a great game against the Browns, partly because the Browns held him to 7 rushes for 16 yards in the 2nd half.  The Browns big break came when Josh Cribbs returned a punt 84 yards for a Touchdown, his first return TD in over 2 years and his first punt return TD since week 1 of 2009.  This clearly was the big play they needed to energize them as the D stepped up and picked off Flacco in the end zone.  The Browns took that momentum, with a nice big play by Cribbs again (this time in the passing game) and led the team all the way down the field for a TD.

After that, the game stayed where it was.  The Browns forced a 3 and out and were getting close to FG range, but didn’t convert on a 4th and 5.  They had a minute shot to get the ball back with a tiny bit of time, but Phil Taylor was drawn offsides and blew that minute chance.  It’s a rookie mistake, but in all likelihood did not cost the Brown the win.

The Browns didn’t give the fans a Christmas miracle, but beating the spread on the road against the Ravens and almost winning is a nice Christmas present.

The Steelers are clearly a better team than the Browns.  If the  talent levels were even in this game, the Browns definitely come away with a win.  The Browns played with the type of heart we have rarely seen from them since the firing of Eric Mangini.  Yet, they are still at least a couple drafts away from seriously competing with the Steelers and the Ravens on a regular basis.  The D had a great game but the offense, which got good field position at times, could not execute after their first score.

A lot of that rests on the Colt McCoy.  He did not do poorly when healthy, but he did not have a great game.  It didn’t help that there were a couple key drops by WRs and the running game was non-existant.  The Browns clearly didn’t have the talent to move against this D

Considering the circumstances, the defense had a solid game.  D’Qwell Jackson had another amazing game, racking up double digit tackles and making several plays behind the line of scrimmage.  Other veterans such as Adams, Chris Gocong, and Scott Paxon made some big plays.  The big thing on D for the day was forcing turnovers, something they have struggled to do all year.  The Browns D was able to force 3 turnovers. They also held Rashard Mendenhall in check and had a big goal line stand with great play from Gocong.

If you saw the game, you probably know that James Harrison had another egregious hit on a Browns player.  This one on Colt and probably the worst.  If you watch the play, it is a clear roughing the passer call without the helmet to helmet hit.  Harrison is clearly out for blood and has more than ample time to change his direction and not hit a QB who has gotten rid of the ball, and not hit the QB with his helmet.  The thing is, Harrison just doesn’t care, that’s not his M.O.  Concussions are why the league takes these hits so serious and Colt sustained one from this.  That definitely explains why Colt looked “off” afterwards.  Fines aren’t doing it to stop Harrison, they should start levying suspensions.

On an even more important issue, Pat Shurmur should never have allowed Colt to re-enter the game.  There is a lot of rumors about what actually happened on the sideline but a few things are clear.  Reports are that Colt complained of concussion-like symptoms, Colt is confirmed now to have a concussion, and he was left in the game.  During the game, the claim was that Colt came out because of an issue to the hand (which also may be an issue).  Later on, it was reported that during the 2 minutes Colt sat on the sideline, they did concussion tests, though its questionable whether they had time to do so.  He was back in the game within two minutes and the claim by Shurmur is that he didn’t know about anything concussion related until after the game.

It all smells like covering their behinds.  2 minutes is not enough time to test for a concussion and if Colt wanted to go out there, it is up to the coaching staff to look out for his safety in that situation.  If Shurmur didn’t know about the possible concussion, then there is a clear lack of communication in that locker room.  If he did, he clearly is covering his ass and trying not to get fired for sending a concussed QB out on the field to try to get a win.  Getting the win is respectable, but not if you break the rules put in place for player safety.  Someone is going to get canned for this and I’m starting to hope it’s Shurmur.

Random Thoughts:

D’Qwell Jackson should get Pro Bowl consideration. The guy has always been a tackling machine but in this 4-3, he has become a playmaker, with 3.5 sacks, 3 fumbles recoveries, & about 10 other hits on the QB and TFLs.

Brad maynard is having a great season. While he doesn’t punt the ball far, but is the best directional punter in the league right now with a ton of punts inside the 20 and no touchbacks.

The Browns are facing off against the divisional rival Ravens who sit at 8-3.  While the Browns are 4-7, this is not going to be a blowout as some people are predicting.  People are sleeping on the Browns and the Ravens may be in that group.  The Ravens have proven this year they are a team that will often play to the level of their opponent.  While they beat the Steelers twice, they also have lost to the Jaguars and Seahawks and it took a last second field goal to beat the Arizona Cardinals.  Divisional games are always closer than they look on paper and a lot of people (including Vegas) forget that.  The line against Cincy was Bengals -7.5 and the line against Baltimore is Ravens -6.5.  It’s likely that this game too will be much closer than Vegas says.

The big reason to think the Browns may be able to win is Peyton Hillis being healthy.  Hillis had the Ravens’ number last year and his 144 yard performance was the last time the Ravens gave up 100 yards to a running back.  In the Ravens’ losses to the Seahawks and the Jaguars, teams had success running against them.  While the Bengals’ rush D is good, it is predicated on linebackers at the 2nd level.  Their D-Line doesn’t get a lot of penetration into the backfield and the Browns have been good at limiting that penetration.  They also struggle in short yardage situations, where Hillis shines.  If the line can keep the LBs at bay, Hillis should have a good day.

The Key to this game overall is going to be who will win in the trenches.  The Ravens should do well if they can get into the Browns’ backfield against the run and against the pass.  Colt McCoy is actually an okay QB when he doesn’t have guys in his face.  His Accuracy Percentage (a stat that takes away WR drops, spikes, throwaways) is almost 73%  when he isn’t pressured but less than 54% when he is.  Joe Thomas and Tony Pashos will have a tough day, but they are one of the best Tackle duos in the league.  The big question mark will be the interior guys.  They are going to have to contain Paul Kruger and Haloti Ngata.  The interior pressure the Ravens bring is almost more than the pressure from edge rushers.

On the flip side, the Browns could win if they have success in the trenches on the defensive side.  While Ray Rice is a good running back, he isn’t exactly getting great running lanes by his offensive line.  The Ravens are 22nd in the league in their ability to gain positive yardage on running plays.  The Browns are going to have to dial it up and be aggressive, because overall they are not particularly good at stopping RBs in the backfield.  If the Ravens do try to run it in short yardage situations, it would work out in the Browns favor since they are solid in those situations.

Like Colt, Joe Flacco isn’t as good when he is pressured.  He hasn’t been that good period this year and his stats aren’t appreciably better than Colt’s.  That being said, he is clearly the better QB, just on a down year.  The Browns secondary is solid enough, but the D-Line needs to dial up the pressure and get in Flacco’s face.  The Browns could really use a key turnover by a guy who has been very turnover prone in Flacco, especially when pressured.

Prediction: Ravens 20, Browns 16

Whenever I pick them to win, they blow it.  Whenever I pick them to lose, they find a way to win we’ll see…

This game was a close one and was hotly contested, but someone had to lose and this week, it was the Browns.  The Browns had another valiant effort, but fell short when making crucial mistakes in key situations.  Again, there was a bad Ryan Pontbriand snap for a 4th quarter field goal and again, that field goal was missed.  In the course of 30 seconds, it went from looking like the Browns would secure the lead to just hoping that Cincinnati doesn’t score.  The Browns had chances to win this game, but they should not be too upset at the loss.  They played a tough game on the road in the division and almost came out of it with a win.  The crowd was raucous and they definitely played a factor into how the teams played after the Colt mcCoy interception.

Outside of his one interception, Colt was solid in the game.  His completion percentage left something to be desired, but a lot of that is due to 9 drops on the offense, many of them easy passes and many of them dropped by Greg Little.  The interception however cost the team dearly.  While it only led to 3 points, it changed the momentum in the game in the Bengals’ favor.  It fired up the fans which in turned fired up the Cincy D.  Before everyone wants to come down and blame Colt, the pass was not an errant throw to a defender, but an attempt to throw it out of bounds that went awry when he was hit.

Outside of Colt, the offense was pretty hit-or-miss.  Jordan Norwood had a great game, but there were many drops by the receivers.  Hillis had a nice game for his return, but still doesn’t have that burst back.  The line also struggled at times to block the Bengals front 7.  Overall, the offensive support cast was fine, but could have done better.

The Browns for some reason have had trouble with Cedric Benson historically.  He is not a good running back and has averaged under 4 ypc the last 2 years but in that span, he has run for 109 yards per game on 4.75 yards per carry.  Both times I predicted the Browns would shut Benson down, but both times they bizarrely have struggled.  Echoing Jamal Lewis, Benson really has had our number which is puzzling because generally he isn’t good.

While the Browns have had a solid pass D, Dalton was able to have a decent game.  The secondary right now is very banged up with T.J. Ward out and Joe Haden not playing at 100%.  Even if Haden was at 100%, AJ Green is a serious force to be reckoned with.  He is 6’4” with a great wingspan and incredible leaping ability.  When a QB can throw a high pass and Green can go up to get it, the defender has no chance.  Green beat Haden a couple times with great leaping catches which Haden had little chance at.  Dalton to Green is going to be a QB-WR tandem that will rival Stafford to Johnson.

The Browns played a good game against a good team and lost.  Its painful in that it’s a close loss to a divisional rival, but this game showed progress.  Peyton Hillis is back and the running game is looking better.  The Browns were ahead or tied for most of the game and led for 39 minutes while only trailing for 38 seconds.  Jabaal Sheard is a monster and the D has nice pieces.

The Browns and Bengals are similar teams in many ways.  They both have had ball-control offenses so far with a poor rushing attack.  Both rely on a solid D to win them games.  Cincinnati is better and has overall had better QB play though, but they are not the team people thought they were 2 weeks ago.  The Bengals have since had to face teams who win with some consistently and have lost 2 in a row.  The Browns are getting back on their feet against bad teams and recently broke a 3 game losing streak.  The Bengals and Browns have faced 5 common teams so far and the Bengals are 4-1 and the Browns are 3-2 against those teams.  This is a big game for the Browns and Pat Shurmur to show that their success in recent weeks isn’t a mirage.

While Colt mcCoy has looked better, he hasn’t been exactly a worldbeater and hasn’t faced the stiffest competition.  While the Rams and Jaguars had very solid pass Ds, both teams had recently lost their #1 corner.  Its hard to say whether these Ds just suck or Colt is just good, but Tavaris just faced the Rams and looked flat out awful, even for Tavaris.  Thankfully, Leon Hall is also out for the year so this trend continues and the Browns hope Colt’s trend will continue.  Good news for Colt is the running game will not have to rely on Chris Ogbonnaya because montario Hardesty has been practicing  & Hillis practiced on Friday.  Both are questionable & either one playing can give a boost to the running game.  The Offensive Line has also been blocking better for the run game and pass blocking.  This is good, because the Browns are going to need all the help they can get up front blocking the Bengals front 7, which is 2nd in opponents’ yards per carry.

On Defense, the Browns should be able to stop Cedric Benson.  They have struggled at times this year stopping the run, but they have faced multiple Pro-Bowl caliber running backs.  Pro-Bowl caliber, Benson is not.  He is having a bad season, but it’s just normal.  He is rushing for 3.8 yards per carry, but his career ypc is 3.7.  Its an improvement over last years horrendous 3.5 but he still sucks big time.  Andy Dalton is putting together a solid season right now, but the Browns passing D has been even more stingy than the Bengals.  They are 4th best in opponent’s net yards per attempt and QBs struggle to score through the air.  Joe Haden should also be able to shut down A.J. Green as he did in the first meeting.  While the Browns don’t force many picks, Dalton has struggled in recent weeks at turning the ball over.

This game may be decided by small margins and trends.  Neither team turns the ball over a lot, but neither team forces turnovers.  It could end up being a game with only 1 turnover and the team who forced it wins.  The Browns won last week in a nailbiter and should have won the week before.  The Browns’ play is overall trending upward, especially at QB while the Bengals’ play is trending downward.  Dalton had 5 picks in the last 2 games and 7 in the last 4.  Regardless of the fact that he just played the Ravens & the Steelers he is trending down.

Prediction: Browns 17, Bengals 13 with a costly pick by Dalton

Casey (“Case”) Keenum is the most outstanding player in Division I College Football.  He’s putting up incredible stats, is nearly perfect (135.2 QB rating on the NFL scale), has led his team to a perfect record, & may not even be in the top 5 for the Heisman Voting.  Why?  The Heisman has changed over the years.  While it’s description is it being for”The outstanding college football player whose performance best exhibits the pursuit of excellence with integrity”, that’s no longer accurate.  If it was accurate, why is a QB who is having an all-time great season be only 5th? Because the award has become a de-facto MVP award for college.  The Heisman is an award given to best player on one of the best teams.

Think this is crazy talk?  9 out of the last 11 Heisman winners have played in the National Championship game and the rest played on teams in BCS Bowls.  7 of the last 9 Heisman winners were picked in the first round and 3 were picked 1st overall.  Outside of Ty Detmer and Andre Ware, they have also all been from big schools or schools in big conferences.  Before them, the last smaller school Heisman winner was Roger Staubach back in ’63.

Keenum is putting together one of the greatest quarterback seasons in college football history.  He is on pace to set the FBS record for highest QB rating in a season.  Not only that, but he is on pace for 43 Touchdowns and almost 4700 yards, and a 73.4 completion %.  Out of the Heisman contenders, Brandon Weeden is the next closest in stats & he is on pace for 6 less TDs and 300 less yards.  Kellen Moore is the most efficient QB after Keenum but he does not throw for the kinds of yardage that Keenum does.

The Arguments against Keenum (versus the front-runner, Luck):

1. He doesn’t play in a big conference and has an easier strength of schedule.  

It is true he plays in the Conference-USA & the Pac-12 is better.  What matters is how these teams stop the pass.  While it may seem that the Pac-12 teams run away with this one, it is not so.  The average D Luck has faced gives up 245.8 yards per game with a completion % of 61.3.  The average D that Keenum has faced gives up 253.5 yards per game with a completion % of 61.7.  Keenum has passed for 1,328 more yards than Luck.  That difference in yardage equals a difference of 11 yards per game for the average D.  The Pac-12 passing Ds are no better than the ones in Conference-USA.

2. He plays in a system designed to fit his strengths.

Houston does run a very pass-happy offense.  However, beneficial systems are not uncommon in college football.  Trent Richardson and Kellen Moore benefit from great offensive line play and Weeden plays in a pass happy offense with Justin Blackmon.  Luck is  in an offensive system that greatly benefits him.  Luck is not the only QB Harbaugh has turned into a success.  Harbuagh put a system around Josh Johnson that launched him into the NFL.  Harbaugh is also working magic right now in making Alex Smith look very efficient. Andrew Luck consistently has tons of time to throw because of the talent up front, which includes two future first rounders.  Houston may not have two draftees total outside of Keenum.

Case Keenum is not getting the recognition he deserves.   Keenum’s aggregate placement when combining some Heisman trackers out there is 5th.   The biggest similarity of all the players in front of him? They all play for bigger named schools.  Moore at Boise State is now in that category because BSU is a perennial powerhouse.  But shouldn’t it say something about how outstanding a player is that he is leading a non-powerhouse team to a 10-0 record?  This is a team that went 3-7 in 2010 once he got injured.

The Heisman trends show that the voters seem to care about how good your program is and how good your project into the pros.  They rarely vote for guys like Keenum who play for smaller schools and in systems that benefit them.  Pro potential seems to be as big of a factor as college production, when  it shouldn’t be.  Luck will eventually win not because of how impressive he has been, but because he will be picked high in the draft.