After a surprising 2007 playoff run the Diamondbacks came out of the gates strong in 2008 and looked like world beaters after the first month of the season.  The young team led by Justin Upton and Chris Young flew through April posting a 20-8 record and looked to be ready for another playoff run.  Up the hill and an even quicker pace down the hill led to finishing the season at 82-80 and watching the playoffs from home.  Last year through the first three months of the season the D-Backs sat at 44-38, in the middle of the pack, before going on incredible run during the second half of the season while winning the division at 94-68.  A steady first half ended with a big spike towards the playoffs.

2012 has added to the roller coaster ride with quite a few more ups and downs.   The first three months of this season included its own share of fast passes for the coaster but let’s look at the last month.  To start July, the D-Backs were swept by the pathetic Padres, beat the division leading Dodgers 3-0, then got swept again by the last place Cubs.  This was followed by 17 games where they didn’t lose a series.  After a blown series against Philadelphia the D-Backs bounced back nicely splitting the series against the wild card leader Pirates.

As many ups and downs that this team has had this season they always find themselves in a familiar position, right around .500.  Impressive series victories always seem to be followed by disappointing losses and vice versa.  The question is, can this team pick a direction or are they going stay on the ride all the way to September?  It seems unlikely that the D-Backs will sneak into a Wild Card spot but they are still only four games back in the NL West.   Battling the deadline busy Dodgers and Giants for the crown it is going to take a big final 50 games to win the division.   A 33-17 record over these games would give them 90 wins on the season, which may get it done.

The best under the radar addition of Chris Johnson at the deadline provides some hope, but it will take much more than just him to ride out the season on that kind of hot streak.  To beat a dead horse, Justin Upton has got to remember how to hit if that kind of run is in the works.  It is hard to believe this team can avoid the bad losses down the stretch in order to get past the division leaders and retain their crown.  Both the pitching and hitting has been good since the All Star break but one group has got to be great to have any chance.  Regardless of how the season ends up there will likely be some big changes in the off-season but the farm is full of arms and the future is still bright.

Prediction:  D-Backs finish 87-75 out of the playoffs

The second half of the season began with the Diamondbacks getting swept by the Cubs and notching only three runs in the process.   The Cubs are going nowhere this season and were looking to be a seller at the trade deadline, so obviously it was a very disappointing series.   However, since then the D-Backs have run off twelve victories while losing only five times to climb back into the race.   This was capped off by a dominating three game sweep of the playoff hopeful Dodgers.  During the series the D-Backs starters went a total of 20 innings while giving up only two runs.  The boys from LA were put on notice that the D-Backs weren’t ready to start thinking about next season just yet.  Paul Goldschmidt and Miguel Montero led the hit parade combining for four HRs and 11 RBIs in the series.

The National League West was busy at the trade deadline, SF and LA were the ones making the headlines but the D-Backs also made some small moves.  The Giants added Marco Scutaro and most notably Hunter Pence from the Phillies.  LA was busier than any other team closing in on the deadline adding three former All Stars to their roster.  Brandon League will shore up the bullpen while Shane Victorino will add some speed to the top of the order.  The wild card was LA trading for Hanley Ramirez, who had appeared to have worn out his welcome in Miami.  Just a couple seasons ago he was one of the best players in baseball.  While he doesn’t bring the dreads to LA that Manny did a few years ago, LA is hoping for a similar infusion of excitement.

The D-Backs, in three separate trades, showed the door to Ryan Roberts and Craig Breslow.  Packing their bags and heading to AZ will be Matt Albers and third baseman Chris Johnson.  Letting go of a solid left handed arm out of the bullpen in Breslow is a bit confusing but the key here is Johnson.  Albers will head to the bullpen where he pitched well for Boston this season logging a 2.29 ERA in 40 appearances.  Johnson should see the majority of the time at 3^rd base the rest of the year and will be looked at to bring some sort of consistency to the position.  The D-Backs probably don’t see him as a long term solution; he is however the best player they have had at the hot corner this season.  After six hits in his first eleven at bats there is reason for optimism.

The Giants now lead the division with the Dodgers nipping at their heels only a half game back.  The sweep of the Dodgers has gotten the D-Backs within two games of the lead and should make for an interesting three way battle the rest of the way.  After their competitors made the big moves at the deadline can AZ hang in the race and which sweep will be more foretelling, the loss to the Cubs or the triumph over the Dodgers?  Only time will tell.

A moment in Diamondbacks history that will not soon be forgotten started with a pitch by the Dodgers Javy Guerra; it ended up in the seats off the bat of Ryan Roberts.  Down the stretch in the 2011 playoff run, D-Backs reliever Micah Owings gave up 5 runs in the 10^th inning turning a 1-1 tie into 5 run deficit.  In the bottom of the 10^th after two quick outs the D-Backs rallied by putting men aboard with an infield hit, a walk, and an error, narrowing the gap to 6-3.  Ryan Roberts then stepped to the plate and smacked a walk of grand slam into the 3^rd row of the of the left field bleachers.  Game over.  A celebration ensued but not before Roberts simulated manager Kirk Gibson’s legendary fist pump.

Roberts was an 18^th round draft pick in 2003 that had only 27 career MLB at bats prior to playing in 110 games for the D-Backs in 2009.  Tatman has been a fan favorite ever since.  His best season was in 2011, when at age 30 he scored 86 runs, had 19 HRs, and was highlighted by that dramatic home run.  Less than a year after his most memorable moment as a Diamondback, he is now a Tampa Bay Ray.

It is doubtful that the D-Backs ever considered him a long term option at the hot corner but he was a fun stop gap to watch while he was there.  His hustle and enthusiasm couldn’t help but wear off on his teammates.   It seems unlikely that Tatman will obtain another every day third base job, but he has landed in the perfect spot for his skill set.  Tampa Bay manager Joe Madden loves to move guys around the field playing them at different positions, which is perfect for a guy who has logged time this season at 2^nd, 3^rd, and OF.

The D-Backs have moved on after a solid few years but most fans in AZ will look back and remember the way Ryan Roberts played the game.  I think those same fans will still be rooting for him and in typical Tatman fashion, he hit a HR in his 1^st game as a Ray.

The trade deadline is nearing and just like a Whack-A-Mole, Justin Upton’s name keeps popping up.    When he recently said “I don’t care anything what the fans think of me “, it may have alienated some fans and only sparked more speculation as to what the Diamondbacks may do before the July 31, 2012 deadline.  Let’s dig into the past, present, and future of Justin Upton.

Right Now:  First things first, who is Justin Upton right now?  At this point in his career he clearly isn’t the superstar many had projected him to be when he was drafted first overall in 2005.  He has had flashes of solid play throughout the current season but for the most part has struggled to find a consistent stroke at the plate.  After starting the second half of the season 0-10 his AVG fell to .264 and he has only 7 HRs to go along with that mediocre average.  The trade speculation obviously has Upton frustrated as he can be seen angrily muttering to himself after each strikeout.

Past:  Last season he was the centerpiece of a total team effort leading the D-Backs to the playoffs.  His 105 runs, 31 HRs, 21 SBs, and .289 AVG was good enough to earn him 4^th in the NL MVP voting.  In 2009 his 26 HRs and .300 AVG were also quite impressive for a 22 year old.

Future:  This is where the argument begins, will he ever be the superstar he was touted to be when he was compared to the likes of Ken Griffey Jr?  He still has all the talent necessary to be a dependable 35 HR hitter, but does he have the head to do so?  Some look to his brother BJ, who also never lived up to his own lofty expectations, as a blueprint of what to anticipate.  BJ is a career .255 hitter who has never sniffed a 30 HR season.

Hold or Fold:  Support continues to grow to cut ties while the D-Backs can still get good value for Upton.  Their argument is that he will always be a streaky hitter, a run-of-the mill outfielder, and never be the perennial all-star D-Back fans were hoping for.  While a short memory for a hitter may be a positive, I would caution the management to have that same mentality.  Undoubtedly Upton has struggled this season but don’t forget that he was barely 24 years old when those MVP votes were cast in 2011, ‘o the good old days.  It’s fair to find out what a trade would return and he wouldn’t be doing his job if GM Kevin Towers didn’t at least listen to offers.  If the D-Backs are blown away with a deal that includes high end prospects as well as a Major League ready 3^rd baseman it might be tough to reject, however I don’t think the offers will get that high.   Upton is never going to win a Gold Glove, he may not win an MVP, but he can still be a great player.  He is having a disappointing season but I believe he will bounce back and make a handful more All Star games.  The talent and possibilities are too high to give up on him now and nothing would be worse than seeing him wearing a different jersey when he figures it out.

Only four games out of the division lead the Diamondbacks have high hopes for the rest of the season.  Rumors of trading Justin Upton swirl but the D-backs management is too smart to give up on a 24 year old former number one overall pick, so it is highly unlikely he will be dealt.  He will however have to pick up his play in the second half if another playoff run is going to happen.  This leads us into the most important factors in the Diamondbacks getting back to the playoffs.

1. Justin Upton:  Whether the current rumors are real, a media embellishment, or just a ploy to light a fire, it really doesn’t matter.  Without a doubt he is the most important player for the D-Backs in the second half.  If the strikeouts continue and home runs don’t start flying out of Chase Field then you can put a fork in their playoff chances.
2. Ian Kennedy:  2011 may have been a career year but he still needs to show that he can be an ace and anchor the rotation.  The loss of Daniel Hudson makes Kennedy’s return to form that much more important.  While Wade Miley has been very impressive the rest of the starting staff has been mediocre.  When your number one pitcher hits the mound every five days, confidence that the game will end in handshakes is key for teams gunning for the playoffs.
3. JJ Putz:  One of the biggest reasons for the D-Backs success last season was the improvement of the bullpen, led by JJ Putz.  He was one of the most consistent closers in the league in 2011 but has had his ups and downs this season.  There have been 10 blown saves already this year while the bullpen blew only 13 games all season in 2011.  In his final six outings he didn’t allow a run while lowering his ERA by over a run, hopefully he can use that to get back to elite closer status for the stretch run.
4. 3^rd Base:  The box score for any D-Back starting at 3^rd this year has been an eyesore for those who don’t like zeros.  Most of this can be attributed to Ryan Roberts, but Cody Ransom (who is no longer with the team), Josh Bell, and Jeff Blum haven’t fared any better.  Whether one of these players step up or this is a spot where the D-Backs look to acquire a player through a trade, the hot corner needs a hot bat.
5. Trevor Bauer:  While we may have to temper our high expectations in his first shot in the big leagues there is no doubt he has all the tools to be a front line starter.  Probably the most highly touted prospect in the organization since Upton, Bauer will have to cut down on his walks in order to pitch longer into games and have the success expected of him.  In his final outing before the break he managed to get through 6 innings allowing only 2 hits and a walk.  This is by far the best of his three major league starts and leads to optimism the rest of the way.

After the playoff run in 2011 and the young talent on board, the first half of the D-backs season can only be described as disappointing.  The favorite to win the NL by many, the D-backs needed the final 3 wins over the Dodgers to close their lead to 4 games.   The positives for the season are much harder to find than the negatives but it is a long season and with the new Wild Card rules everyone in the NL, outside of the Cubs, has a chance.  Let’s break down the good and the bad of the first half:

Better than expected:

1. Wade Miley – After spring training if someone told you the D-Backs would have a rookie all-star pitcher, Miley would have likely been your third choice after Bauer and Skaggs.  Skaggs has been solid but not spectacular in the minors and has some work to do to make the 40 man roster later this season.  After Bauer dominated class AA and AAA he has had a rough start to his major league career.  Knocked around in his first two starts he is showing the same propensity as in the minors to give hitters a free pass… now back to the good.  Miley was as dominant as any pitcher in the NL in the first half, sporting a 2.19 ERA through July 24 before a couple of bad outings.  The first 15 starts were likely beyond what we can expect from him but I see him continuing his solid season with a mid 3 ERA for the second half.
2. Aaron Hill – Two cycles in 11 days is pretty unbelievable.  While this is what got him national news it has been his consistency in the two hole that has made him a valuable asset.  As with any player he has had ups and downs but not only has he won games by himself he has also provided important clutch hits and better than expected defense at second base.
3. Jason Kubel – Outside of Melky Cabrera in SF he has been the most valuable new addition in the NL West.  After a slow start Kubel has heated up and doesn’t show any signs of slowing down.  He is the D-Backs first half MVP and it’s a shame he didn’t get any talk about an all-star berth.

What’s Wrong:

1. Justin Upton – He has struggled to get into a groove all season after finishing fourth in the MVP voting last season. The fans have become frustrated and started booing him, Upton’s response was “To be honest with you, I don’t care anything about what the fans think of me.”  An uninspired first half and even worse reaction to your criticism.  His numbers are down, most notably his home runs, but returning to form for a solid month would make those numbers look much better.
2. Chris Young – After a torrid start to the season with 5 home runs and 13 RBIs in the first 11 games of the season, CY crashed into the outfield wall which landed him on the DL for a month.  In the 37 games since he returned from injury he has only 3 home runs and 6 RBIs.   Unfortunately for Young and the D-backs he has been unable to even sniff the success he had early in the season.
3. Ian Kennedy/Daniel Hudson – After Kennedy finished tied for the most wins in the NL in 2011 with 21 and finished fourth in the Cy Young voting, expectations in 2012 became very high.  His ERA has risen from 2.88 to 4.26 and only provided 6 wins in the first half.  Hudson’s season has ended prematurely with Tommy John surgery but even before that he was he was also having trouble duplicating the success he had in 2011.  Prior to the injury, his ERA was four runs higher than last season and was allowing opposing hitters to hit .332 against him.  These two were supposed to anchor the front of the rotation this season but have not lived up to their expectations.

The D-Backs were scuffling and appeared to be heading into the All Star break on a low note after a season high 6 losses in a row.  Down 2-0 against the Dodgers the D-Backs were on the verge of a 7 game losing streak and falling 8 games behind the division leading Dodgers.  A five run explosion in the bottom of the sixth inning was the beginning of what would be a very important final three victories over LA.  In third place and only four games out of the division lead the D-Backs will have some work to do in the second half of the season if they want to defend their division title but they are well within striking distance.   Based on the underwhelming play of their stars I think the D-Backs should be happy to be where they are at in the standings.