The Hershey Bears won their second straight Calder Cup (it’s real hard not to call it the Calder Trophy) and third in five years last night.  Their playoff run included half of their 16 wins coming in overtime, Beamoning the previous AHL playoff record of six overtime wins, with an 8-1 record in overtime.  I would walk through fire to assure the Capitals went .500 in overtime in the playoffs, so hopefully this is a sign of things to come.  My desire to watch a sporting event that was neither soccer nor baseball overcame my desire to watch a sporting event played in high definition or at the highest level of competition, but it also provided an opportunity to see next year’s reinforcements and what a playoff beard looked like grown over a period of time longer than the two weeks I’m used to.  Chris Bourque and John Carlson were clearly the two most dominant skaters in the Finals, and Bourque took home playoff MVP with his Hall of Fame father in attendance.  Carlson started off slowly in the playoffs, then took over the Calder Cup Finals after the Bears fell behind 2-0 after two games at home in the 2-3-2 format (the Bears were the first AHL team to come back from such a deficit).  Captain America, as they Hershey Announcers repeatedly called him, went 2-2-4 +5 with two game winners during the Bears’ four subsequent wins, and along with Karl Alzner shut down Texas Stars top scorer Jamie Benn.

So Carlson is a mortal lock to make the big club next year, while Alzner and Michal Neuvirth will likely join him.  It’s safe to say a big reason Carlson finished his year in the AHL was to get more experience playing along Alzner, and the lack of discussions between Washington and Jose Theodore is a pretty good indicator Neuvirth will be at least the backup goalie next year.  After that, in order of likelihood of making the team out of training camp, I’d say it goes Mathieu Perreault, Chris Bourque, Andrew Gordon, and Steve Pinizzotto.  In particular, it figures Washington would like Perreault to add some lower body strength to become stronger on the puck and provide depth at center.  Braden Holtby will take over the reins between the pipes at Hershey and possibly emerge as the Capitals’ next blue chip prospect, because while the cupboard is far from bare, it looks like this will be the first time since the fire sale of 2004 that Washington won’t have a glut of NHL ready prospects.

All’s Fehr: It’s all but certain Jose Theodore, Brendan Morrison, Joe Corvo, and Scott Walker won’t be back.  Eric Belanger’s return is less than 50/50 but there’s been discussion.  But I truly believe now that Backstrom is locked up the top objective, even ahead of adding another center, is resigning Eric Fehr.  So hearing Fehr’s agent sound positive regarding discussions is great news.

It’s been a few weeks since I could talk about the Caps and not be near tears, but locking up one of the league’s premier pivots for the next decade has cured my case of the Mondays.  There exists a school of thought that Backstrom would be ordinary were he not centering Ovechkin, but March 14th against the Blackhawks he was clearly the best player on the ice once Ovechkin was ejected for boarding Brian Campbell.  A goal and an assist in the third, and a gorgeous game winner where he undressed Seabrook in OT.

So what are Backstrom’s totals this year without Ovechkin?  The captain missed ten games – in those games Backstrom went 3-11-14 0.   Including the game against Chicago, Ovechkin got less than ten minutes of ice time in three games this season.  In those games, Backstrom went 5-2-7 +1.  Combined: 13 GP, 8 G, 13 A, 21 P, +1.  These numbers don’t tell the whole story – the attention paid Ovechkin defensively makes things easier on everyone, and you’d rather have him on your line than not – but it supports the argument that Backstrom would have had around the same point total if he centered, say, Semin and Laich.

So where does Backstrom rank among NHL forwards?  I’ve got a tough time saying that Backstrom is better than Henrik Sedin right now, but if you had to pick one or the other for the next decade, I’m confident nearly every GM in the league would take Backstrom.  Taking it to the next step, outside of Crosby and Ovechkin, who would be more valuable than Backstrom over the course of a 10 year deal?  I’d say Stamkos and probably Malkin.

After Ovie, Crosby, and Malkin, Backstrom was the league’s most productive player in his first three years since the lockout.  If Backstrom had waited for an offer sheet I think it’s likely he would have gotten more than $7.5 million a year on a deal of whatever length he preferred.  He’s far more accomplished than potential restricted free agents who have recently signed extensions in $5-7 million yearly range. which include the next five most productive forwards in their first three seasons after the lockout and Mike Richards.  The only guy in any of these lists that made it to restricted free agency is Thomas Vanek, the league’s 10th highest scorer in his first three seasons since the lockout.  Edmonton signed him to a 7 year, $50 million offer sheet, basically signaling the end of reasonable second contracts.  Or he could have signed a shorter deal and been an unrestricted free agent in a hopefully stronger economy.

Kudos to Backstrom for not squeezing every dollar he could out of this deal so Washington can resign their restricted free agents and address their biggest need: a second line center.  They’ve got over $13 million in cap room, and from what I’ve heard their RFA most likely to sign an offer sheet is Eric Fehr.

Why would I be surprised?  Every playoff series Washington has been in since 2003 has gone seven.  Halak apparently turns into Patrick Roy when he sees 40+ shots and Corey’s mom turns into Nostradamus when Vegas likes the Caps.  I cannot overstate the feeling of negativity in Washington right now, because this is like Groundhog Day for Caps fans.  An NHL record three 3-1 leads blown.  A flaccidity inducing 2-6 in game 7s, three of those losses in overtime.  It’s so bad the Capitals turned off their official message boards to escape the negativity.

Tonight’s game 7 is a turning point for the franchise.  Backstrom might be able to escape the funk of defeat, but Ovechkin’s reputation will suffer no matter how eye popping his postseason numbers are.  The goalless Mike Green and Semin will deservedly get heaping shares of blame.  After making the playoffs in Boudreau’s first season and the second round last year, any step backward would make this record breaking season a disappointment and for the first time there will be talk within the beltway about whether Boudreau is the right coach for this team.  Now if the Capitals win there’s no guarantee they beat Philadelphia, or the winner of Pittsburgh and Boston, or the winner of the West, but I maintain they should be favored in each one of those potential matchups.  So maybe I’ll be looking back at all of these doubts and anxieties and laughing in a couple of months, or maybe I’ll be counting down the days until the NFL preseason starting tomorrow.

Analysts boil tonight down to the Caps getting to the net.  Usually I’m dismissive of such simplistic solutions, but when Washington was unleashing the Kraken on Montreal Knuble was bumping the Habs’ goalie at every opportunity and it clearly had an effect.  The other obvious key is the Capitals’ power play, currently an impotent 1 for 30.  Their one goal was in transition – once they get in the zone it’s like they expect their shots to be blocked.  I think they need to be more aggressive with their cross ice passes a man up, because Montreal was taking that away early in the series but they were there the last two games, certainly in game 6′s 5 on 3.  Poti’s loss can be overcome, but naturally he’s been statistically the Caps’ best defenseman in the playoffs.  It sounds like Alzner is taking his spot next to Carlson tonight, a move I agree with instead of Sloan or Erskine.  I think talent wins out tonight: Washington 4-2.

The Washington Capitals have been up 3-1 in playoff series nine times and are a nausea inspiring 6-3 in those series, three of those wins coming in their Stanley Cup Finals run of 1998.  Take away 1998, and they’re 0-2 at series with home ice up 3-1.  With the Caps it always seemed to come down to game 5.  If they lose that with home ice, they go on the road and the other team has the momentum, then they come home and all the pressure is on the Caps.  I was pretty confident Washington was coming home up 3-1, but game 5 is a bit of a bugaboo for me.  If Montreal can force a game 7, I’d make it a pick ‘em and all bets are off.  I think the Caps finish the series tonight but I’m nervous about it.

One reason for confidence is the fact that the Capitals are seemingly in the heads of the Habs and their fans.  After Ovechkin called Halak out for looking nervous in game 2, Carey Price committed two unsportsmanlike conduct penalties in game 4.  And much has been said about the spraying Ovechkin gave a kid waving a Canadian flag, and not autographing a Canadian flag while trying to buy tickets from a scalper.  I got a chuckle out of seeing the kid get sprayed and the idea of a superstar buying tickets from a scalper for a game in which he’s playing, but needless to say there are some pissed off Canadians fans.

When Bruce Boudreau got the interim head coaching job with the 6-14-1 Capitals in November 2007, his chances of holding on to the job were predicated on two objectives: developing the young talent and winning as many games as possible.  The Caps won 11 of 12 to end the season to make the playoffs by two points and win Boudreau the Jack Adams.  He entered the league with no job security and before he had a training camp his team needed to end the season on a seven game win streak to make the playoffs.  So when he says he’s going to start the guy who he thinks gives the Caps the best chance of winning, you’ve got to take him at his word.  I have to admit I thought Boudreau would go back to Theodore, but that’s why he’s one of the top coaches in the league and I am a dumbass.

Varlamov kept the game tied after a first period in which the Habs outshot the Caps 10-7, the second period this series where Monreal has done so (the second period of game one), and in the second period the floodgates opened.  Boudreau’s other significant lineup changes included dropping Laich to the third line and going with Gordon and Bradley on the grit line instead of Steckel and Walker.  So Gordon went 13-2 in faceoffs, Gordon and Bradley scored the game’s first and last goals, respectively, and Laich scored and had a primary assist in between.  With the Capitals having now outscored the Canadians 10-2 over the last 82:08 of game time, Boudreau has released the Kraken.

Boudreau went to Varlamov in game two of the playoffs last year so Theodore’s three month unbeaten streak bought him eight more minutes of leash.  I cannot think of another example of a coach switching from a veteran to a rookie in the playoffs consecutive years at the sports’ most important position, basically after the first game both times.  And both times it turned out to be the right call.  It almost seems like it’s either part of some master plan to get Varlamov playing his best hockey in the playoffs or that Boudreau is just messing with Theodore.

I imagine outside of the Verizon Center she’s quite nice.  Inside, the little old lady who sits across the row from me and screams bloody murder at every play that goes against the Capitals is pound for pound the most intense fan I’ve ever seen.  With 38 minutes gone in Saturday night’s classic and Montreal having built a 4-1 lead without having committed a single penalty she had seen enough and decided to beat the crowd.  Eight-one minutes later Backstrom capped off a hat trick to give the Caps their first home overtime win since their finals run in 1998 in the fifth postseason game in which a player from each team scored a hatter, though the second in the building in a calender year.

Things looked bleak early as Theodore whiffed on Montreal’s first two shots and Boudreau wisely went to Varlamov eight minutes in to keep the crowd in the game and jolt the bench.  Washington’s best defenseman in game one, Carlson, had a giveaway that resulted in a 1-0 deficit a minute in, but both goals were on the soft side.  Fehr got one back, but when Andrei Kostitsyn capped off a hat trick at 17:44 in the second, I had the feeling if the Caps can just get one more in the period, they can finish the job in the third.  Backstrom got his first of the game, second of the playoffs, less than a minute later to start the snowball rolling, Carlson drew the Caps first power play about a minute after that, Ovechkin knocked in a Carlson rebound about a minute after that power play expired, and then tying it up seemed inevitable.

Thirty-four seconds later Poti gave Scott Gomez a facewash after he taken liberties with Ovechkin.  Gomez responded with a small flurry of gloved jabs, Poti dropped his gloves, and Montreal’s best center and arguably Washington’s worst defenseman were off the ice for five minutes.  Less than five minutes of game time had passed since it was 4-1.  The Habs got their third and final power play less than a minute after that and looked disorganized without Gomez.  Backstrom scored his second off a perfect feed from Ovechkin midway through the third, and as the ice felt tilted during the period I thought the Caps needed to win in regulation or lose in overtime based on their recent history.  When Capitals killer Tomas Plekanec scored the potential game winner with just over five minutes later, I felt the only way Washington would get to overtime was if Ovechkin, who at that point had a goal and three assists, or Backstrom, who had two goals and an assist, could bail them out.  But with a minute and a half left, and Varlamov ready to leave the crease, it was the 20 year old Carlson who drew a penalty, activated on an odd man break, and found the puck on his stick in the slot with the game on the line.

After Carlson converted and the roof came off, I stared at the empty seat to my right and began to write this post in my head.  What more can be said about Carlson, who about 100 days ago was winning the Juniors for the U.S.? He made a veteran play in the third when he knocked a puck that had gone high in the air behind Varlamov out of harms way with his right glove and accidentally dislodged the next with his left, the non-call drawing the ire of Habs fans. With Green’s ineffectiveness it’s easy to see Carlson get a huge bump in minutes in game three.  He’s clearly been the Caps’ best defenseman in the series, and this is just as clearly becoming a pattern for Green.  In his last 18 playoff games he has a goal, eight assists, and is -6, brutal numbers for an offensive Norris finalist.  Last year he didn’t look healthy – there was a rumor he had strep throat – but now he just doesn’t look confident.

Backstrom sent everyone home happy 31 seconds into OT.  He has firmly established himself this season as one of the league’s top six forwards – along with Ovechkin, Crosby, Malkin, Henrik Sedin, and Stamkos – and will be compensated as such this offseason, likely in a deal lasting a decade or more.  Ovechkin has said they’re best friends, Washington would surely match any offer, and he gets to play on a line with the best player in the world. Though with 14 points in his last six games (7 G, 7 A, +9), Backstrom has been the best player on the Caps the last two weeks.

Both teams go into game three unsettled at goalie.  I’m going to predict Washington goes back to Theodore.  My rationale is A) he played better in game one than Varlamov played in game two and B) it would be easier to go to Varlamov in relief in Montreal than Theodore.  I could also easily see Varlamov based on their histories in Montreal: Varlamov is 2-0-0 with a 1.94 GAA and a .930 save percentage while Theodore is 0-1-1 with a 7.42 GAA and a .803 save percentage.  In Montreal there are questions about Halak, who Ovechkin thought looked nervous in the first period.  Carey Price had some success against the Caps in the regular season.  I predict Washington wins the next two at the Bell Centre though I admit I’m a little less confident about game five.

There’s an instant after a playoff overtime loss when the crowd is paralyzed.  The disconnect between what’s expected and the actual outcome and the inability to move on after a loss freezes you in place.  It’s at that instant that the heady fan makes a beeline for their car, for those 3 or 4 seconds equate to 15 or 20 minutes in downtown Washington, DC.  Going into last night, the Capitals were 1-4 in overtime playoff games under Boudreau (1-7 in their last 8 as a franchise), so maybe it’s surprising more people weren’t prepared.

I’ve been trying to come up for a reason for their lack of success after regulation.  They’ve had so many games this year where they’ve started slow and came back to overcome multiple goal deficits, and obviously there’s no coming back in overtime.  But you’ve got to look at the shift lengths of Washington’s top line as a factor, because while the Caps generally own the third period, they’ve looked tentative and tired in overtimes the last few years, resulting in enormous penalties.

On the bright side, the Caps comfortably outshot the Habs 47-37 without Ovechkin putting any on goal and dominated faceoffs 45-26 with Fleishmann as the 2nd center..  Jose Theodore was the Capitals best player, and the Caps aren’t losing too many games when that happens.  John Carlson looked terrific and in his first playoff game.  Home ice is truly meaningless in this series because I cannot overstate the horrid condition of the ice last night at the Verizon Center.  Washington is a skilled team and as it deteriorated over the course of the game it clearly had an effect on their passing and decisions to hold on to the puck.

The Capitals could easily win this series without Ovechkin as his usual, dominant self.  The Canadians are clearly focused on shutting him down.  Ovechkin floating at the edge of the offensive zone brings two or three Habs with him, and once the Caps adjust they won’t get much resistance breaking the puck out of the defensive zone against Montreal’s diminutive forwards.  I’m still confident Washington wins this series.

In one corner: the most points ever by a non-original six franchise.  Two 100 point scorers, two 40 goal scorers, seven 20 goal scorers, all the most in the league.  A starting goalie 20-0-3 with a .922 save percentage in the last three months, .967 in the third period.  In the other: the fewest wins and points by a playoff team since 2003.  Their likely goalie has one playoff start and has given up 11 goals in his last three starts.  I really don’t see this as being much of a series. 

I’ve been scouring the internet for counterpoints, some kind of inoculation for my confidence.  Montreal and Washington went 2-1-1 against each other, 14-14 in head-to-head scoring, the Caps outshooting the Habs 138-111.  Carey Price won both those games for Montreal and isn’t expected to start the series.  Caps’ third string goalie Michal Neuvirth started two of those games, Alexander Semin missed two of them.  The Montreal Gazette trumpets that Ovechkin was held to one goal and three assists in four games, not exactly statistically significant.  And CTV.ca basically turns the Capitals being exciting into two reasons they will lose in an upset that would dwarf Anaheim over San Jose last year.  Seriously – Edmonton was upset in the 80s and Umberger thinks the Caps will go out early, and that’s two of their three bullet points.

The Washington Post cites the unfamiliarity of Jaroslav Halak and the media spotlight of Montreal as negatives, along with the legitimate point that Montreal has the second ranked power play (Caps are first) going against Washington’s 25th ranked penalty kill.  To that point I would like to counter that Montreal drew the fewest penalties in the league during the regular season.  Montreal’s leading scorer Tomas Plekanec (seriously?) had four goals in four games against Washington this year, the same number of goals he has in the postseason in 21 games.

Upsets happen, and they’re far more common in the NHL than the NBA or NFL.  But there’s no way Montreal wins this series.  Hell, Hockey-Reference.com has already given it to Washington.  In my opinion this is the best non-Detroit squad the league has seen in the last 15 years.  Washington is at the top of everybody’s power rankings, and have been for the last two months.  Puck Probabilities makes the Caps the prohibitive favorite.  The Hockey News has Washington in four.  I agree.

Now’s the time of year where it’s easy for broadcasters to fill the air with year-end awards small talk.  “Do YOU think Henrik Sedin has a chance at the Hart or the Pearson?”  “Why yes, I think he has an excellent chance.”  I mean, what are you going to say?  “Hell no, why would anyone cast a vote for a forward that isn’t Ovechkin or Crosby?  At least if you vote for Ryan Miller at least you can put together a cogent argument.”  Personally, I think Ovechkin has it sewn up, but once you put that argument to rest it’s tough to fill blog posts, so it’s easier to say it’ll go down to the wire.

Let’s start with the argument against Ovechkin.  There’s only one with any legs: Washington is 7-2-1 in his absence, 42-13-10 with him, a slightly lower point percentage (75% versus 72.3%).  Well the Capitals played the Panthers, who currently has the third worst record in the NHL, in four of the ten games Ovechkin missed, going 4-0-0 and outscoring Florida 24-10.  Take away those games and Washington is 3-2-1 without their best player in two games against the Devils, one against the Flyers, and three non-playoff teams.  One can argue that the Capitals are likely a playoff team without Ovechkin, but I can’t imagine they’d have a comfortable lead for best record in the league.

Sidney Crosby has similar stats to Ovechkin (plus/minus notwithstanding) in 10 more games played and is the likely runner-up for the Hart Trophy.  If Crosby and Ovechkin finish with with similar goal and point totals, I can’t imagine Crosby beating him out with 10 fewer games played (Ovechkin is averaging 1.54 points per game, Crosby 1.25), a 30+ points lower plus/minus rating, and a team trailing in the standings.  Ryan Miller is the other legitimate Hart contender.  He leads qualifiers in GAA and save percentage carrying a team that can still win the 2 seed in the East.  If the NHLs two biggest stars weren’t having career type years, he’d have a much better case.  But goalies generally only win the Hart if no one on an elite team has a dominant year.  As for Sedin, come on.  He’s had a great year and maybe he wins the Art Ross.  But would any coach, GM, writer, or broadcaster really take Sedin over Ovechkin or Crosby?  If you replace one the league’s preeminent stars with Henrik Sedin would Pittsburgh or Washington improve?

After Fehr tied it up in Chicago Sunday, Joel Quenneville finally called his timeout.  Prior to the next faceoff, The Imperial March from Star Wars played in the United Center.  I thought that summed it up pretty well.  Ovechkin had injured Brian Campbell, the Capitals had come back from three down without their MVP, and Chicago seemed destined to lose their second heart breaker in under 24 hours.  Playing in their road whites with dark blue trim, the Capitals did resemble the brutally efficient army of the original Star Wars movies.  In the intermission after Campbell was injured, Pierre McGuire actually marveled at Ovechkin’s strength, an adroit way to avoid taking a stance as to whether or not the hit was dirty.  But he did have a point – Ovechkin did seem to let up on Campbell as he went into the boards and his body came off Ovechkin’s push like he was being sucked out of an airplane.

After Ovechkin’s first Hart winning season in 2007-08, he actually finished ninth in Lady Byng voting.  He finished with a career low 40 penalty minutes and zero incidents.  Last season Ovechkin ended Jamie Heward’s career with an unfortunate hit from behind, which he followed with a knee on knee hit on Sergei Gonchar in the playoffs.  When I watch these hits, along with this interference call on Dustin Brown earlier in the season, it just looks like Ovechkin is incapable of a love tap.  Even when he eases up, he hits violently.  Ovechkin doesn’t even look interested in hitting Heward and he gets crushed along the boards, and he just goes through Gonchar and spins him like a top.

This year Ovechkin has been suspended twice and fined for two other incidents.  His boarding on Patrick Kaleta came with a mandatory game misconduct because of the injury.  It’s an even more borderline call than the Campbell boarding since Kaleta gets rid of the puck an instant before impact, but it’s noteworthy because it essentially put Ovechkin on probation for half the year.  He was also fined for a slew foot on Rich Peverley, a categorically dirty play but it’s Ovechkin’s strength that pulls Peverley back and causes the slew foot.  The hit on Tim Gleason is a misjudgment on Ovechkin’s part as Gleason turns away and Ovechkin has committed to contact too early.  He injured himself (as well as Gleason) on this play and was suspended for two games (which he likely would have missed anyway due to injury).  Which brings us to Sunday’s boarding call.

So is Ovechkin a dirty player?  He now has committed enough dirty plays that it’s tough to argue: two knee-on-knees and one slew foot in under a calender year.  He’s certainly not the dirtiest player in the NHL, nor the top five, but at some point you have to get to Ovechkin’s name.  Brute strength can explain away some of these incidents but not all.

Miscellaneous: I used this Complex.com post for the Youtube links as well as a refresher on Ovechkin’s history.