Last night the San Francisco Giants distanced themselves from the second place Dodgers by seven games, a season high. Things are looking up for the city by the bay as their remaining games are all against division rivals under .500, with the exception of a three game series in LA (74-69) to finish off the season. The Dodgers have a much tougher schedule having to face the Cardinals, then a late east coast road trip to face MLB’s best Washington Nationals and Cincinnati Reds. The Giants look confident and could stroll into the postseason with an NL West title. It’s once they get there that fans can start to worry.

With a national reputation of good pitching and playing small, what was once a strength for the Giants could become their biggest fault. The starting rotation has officially become a concern.

With the exception of Matt Cain, starters Tim Lincecum, Barry Zito, and more recently Madison Bumgarner and Ryan Vogelsong, have shown how inconsistent they really are. Lincecum is obviously having the worst year of his young career going 9-14 with a 5.09 ERA. And while Zito is having his best year as a Giant, which really doesn’t say much, he’s only 11-8 with a 4.33 ERA. However, even with those two struggling, the Giants looked like serious contenders until Bumgarner and Vogelsong (really the Giants’ #2 and #3 guys this year) started showing signs of struggling.

Vogelsong doesn't have much to tip his cap for these days.

Bumgarner can still turn it around, I think, because we all saw him on baseball’s biggest stage, the World Series, in 2010 when he became the first left-hander to strike out Vladimir Guerrero three times in the same game. Give him the chance in the postseason with some pressure, and he can shine. However, fans are starting to think about Vogelsong’s first six years in the big leagues, you know, when he was awful. Many were quick to shrug off last year as a fluke for Vogelsong when he started this season so strongly, leading the NL in ERA by the All-Star Break, but consider that in his last three starts he has given up at least four earned runs all to sub .500 teams. One of those teams was MLB’s worst, the Houston Astros. He’s also lost three of his last five decisions, and since August 8th his ERA has gone from a 2.27 to a 3.40.

Unless Vogelsong can get it going again, the Giants face a dilemma going into the postseason with their starting rotation, and yes, Giant’s fans should be very concerned.

A few days ago I posted my predictions regarding the NL pennant race, giving an edge to the Washington Nationals winning it all. You can find the article here: (http://www.prosportsblogging.com/2012/08/24/from-the-stretch-who-makes-the-playoffs-and-who-wins-it-all-nl/). Today I list my favorites to make the playoffs in the American League while also giving each team their chances of winning the pennant so without further ado:

American League:

East, New York Yankees: They’re the cream of the crop in the American League and even though they have some question marks over their starting pitching, they’re more stable than the AL leading Texas Rangers. They also finish the season against an opponent’s win % of .495 whereas the second place Tampa Bay Rays(4 games back) are up against a .532, one of the toughest in baseball. It also doesn’t hurt that in an offensive-happy American League the Yankees are first in team HRs at 195, more than 25 ahead of second place Chicago at 169. Chances of winning it all: 30%

Curtis Granderson and the Yankees love the long ball.

Central, Detroit Tigers: I know that right now the White Sox are 2.5 games up on the Tigers, but I’d be shocked if a team with big names like, Verlander, Cabrera, and Fielder don’t find a way into the playoffs, and I just don’t see a team from the Central making it through the Wild Card, so it’s either Detroit or Chicago, not both. However, whoever does make it, is also the least likely to win it all. Throughout the season both teams have faced easier and more favorable schedules than their contending counterparts, which doesn’t help them prepare against the league’s best. Chances of winning it all: 10%

West, Texas Rangers: This one, similar to the Yankees pick, is a no-brainer. The Rangers can match the firepower of anyone in the American League(they’re leading the league in AVG and Runs Scored), but also, like the Yankees, they have some questions when it comes to their starting pitching. They don’t even crack the top fifteen in Quality Start, which means they’re putting way too much pressure on their bullpen, and just 12th in ERA. However, a regular season does count for a lot and the Rangers have a history of winning despite their pitching with an AL best 75 wins. Chances of winning it all: 30%

First Wild Card, Tampa Bay Rays: Last weekend we more than likely saw a preview of the AL Wild Card game between the Rays and the Oakland Athletics. The A’s won the series 2-1 but that doesn’t mean we’ll see the same results come October. The Rays’ offense is atrocious. They are batting a dismal .236 AVG yet are still putting pressure on the Yankees to keep winning. Well that’s because they probably have the best pitching in all of baseball, which says a lot considering they pitch against a DH every game unlike NL teams. David Price is having a Cy Young type of season and the team ranks first in WHIP(1.19!) and opposing AVG(.232). Chances of winning it all: No one wants to face this rotation in the postseason, 20%

David Price can carry a team through the playoffs.

Second Wild Card, Oakland Athletics: Okay, I admit this one has a little bias to it, but how great would it be to see the A’s and Rays reach the playoffs despite having the two worst stadium attendances in the AL? Aside from that, the A’s could be this year’s Cinderella story. I know a lot of people will look to their remaining schedule and point out that they have one of the toughest roads to follow in order to reach the postseason, but let’s be honest, who had the A’s at 69-57 this point in the season? Chances of winning it all: 10%

Heading into the last month of the regular season, it’s time to take a serious look at the National League’s potential playoff teams and see who are the serious contenders to win 2012′s coveted Commissioner’s Trophy. Going by division then the two Wild Card openings, I’ll list my picks to reach the playoffs and their chances of winning it all.

National League

East, Washington Nationals: Since the All Star Break it has become quite clear that the Nationals are no fluke. Their complete turnaround from basement dwellers to feared contenders can largely be attributed to seasoned-manager Davey Johnson’s direction and influence on young stars like Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper, but most importantly, it’s their pitching. While their offense is relatively middle of the pack(12th in the Majors in AVG at .258 is their highest rank among offensive categories), it’s their pitching that has made them a real threat. Granted, their success is largely dependent on what they decide to do with Strasburg once the calendar reaches October, but as of now their pitching staff as a unit ranks first in ERA and quality starts, and second in WHIP and opposing AVG. Chance of winning it all: Again, it’s all dependent on Strasburg getting to pitch, but if he does I’m saying they’re the favorites at 35%

The Nationals' championship hopes depend on Strasburg's availability

Central, Cincinnati Reds: The hottest team in the NL since the All Star Break, they distanced themselves from the Cardinals and Pirates with a 10 game winning streak in July, oh yeah and that was without former MVP Joey Votto who is still out with a knee injury. In fact the Reds are 26-12 without their star first baseman this season. Just imagine what they’re capable of once he returns paired with the league’s best relief pitcher in Aroldis Chapman and one of the league’s best starters in Johnny Cueto. Chances of winning it all: 25%

West, San Francisco Giants: Aside from the race for the final Wild Card spots, the West looks to be the closest divisional race in baseball with the Giants facing the second place Dodgers, who are three back, six more times this season, including a three game season finale in Los Angeles. However the Giants get the edge here because of their remaining schedule outside those six games. The combined winning percentage of the teams they face the rest of the season is at .464 while the dodgers face an opposing percentage of .505. Chances of winning it all: Considering whoever they face in the postseason has to get through a rotation featuring Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner and Ryan Vogelsong, the Giants’ chances are pretty good at 25%

Matt Cain hopes to carry the Giants to another World Series

First Wild Card, Atlanta Braves: Although most of their remaining games are on the road, they still have the third best record in the NL behind the Nationals and Reds. They’re also 2.5 spots ahead of the second place Wild Card Cardinals and 3.5 over the Pirates. I think it’s safe to say they’ll reach the postseason as the Cardinals or Pirates are likely to knock the other out of contention in the coming weeks. Chances of winning it all: Both Wild Card teams will face a new uphill battle this year as they essentially play an extra one game series in the postseason while the divisional winners get the day off. 10%

Second Wild Card, St. Louis Cardinals: Consider history, it’s too hard for me to really believe the Pirates can sneak into the playoffs. Sure they have the NL’s best player and potential MVP Andrew McCutchen, but having to pick one, I’m taking last year’s World Series winners over a team that hasn’t reached the playoffs since 1992. Chances of winning it all: 5%

The Cardinals struck early on Wednesday afternoon, and that’s all they needed after a two run shot to the bleachers from Carlos Beltran gave them a 2-0 lead in the first inning. Less than 24 hours after the Giants came up with a franchise-best 15-0 shutout against the Cardinals, the red and white came back with a 3-1 victory behind a strong performance from pitcher Adam Wainwright. The series ended in a 2-2 draw between the two previous World Champions. It also brought the two clubs to identical record in the season standings at 61-51.

Carlos Beltran continues to roll with his 27th HR of the season.

Both the Cardinals’ Beltran and Giants’ Buster Posey had an impressive series. They each had a pair of home runs while Beltran knocked in three and Posey drove in four. Perhaps most importantly, they both proved to the nation that they are serious contenders for the season’s MVP award. Granted, Beltran has been impressive all season, consistently in the National League’s top five for home runs and runs batted in. Posey, however, has just come on strong as of recent since the All Star Break. He’s fifth in the NL in batting AVG at .329 and subsequently fifth in OBP (.400) and sixth in RBI (73) and leads the first place Giants with 19 home runs. Although Posey is likely the favorite for Comeback Player of the Year, both he and Beltran must continue to roll if they hope to catch up with MVP favorite Andrew McCutchen who is having a monster season.

The Cardinals and Giants both left St. Louis after Thursday’s game. The Cardinals are off to face the NL East last place Phillies in Philadelphia while the Giants return to the bay against the NL West last place Rockies, a team the Giant’s swept just days ago in Colorado.

Don’t let the one earned run fool you, Lincecum continued to struggle today at Coors Field while the Giants’ offense took off for an 8-3 win and sweep over the Rockies. Lincecum, who threw thirty six pitches in the first inning, once again had trouble with his command matching a season high five walks along with five hits. Lincecum gave up his only run in the first and left the bases loaded before getting out of the inning on a caught line drive. The struggling two-time Cy Young winner also only struck out three through six innings against a team that was outscored 35-13 in the series.

Lincecum did benefit from some great fielding behind him. With runners on second and third in the bottom of the fourth and one out, Dexter Fowler hit a fly ball out to left-center where Melky Cabrera caught and threw out Wilin Rosairo tagging up from third to the ending. The throw couldn’t have been any better from Cabrera as Hector Sanchez didn’t have to move at all, he just caught it an held on tight for the collision at the plate. Perhaps more important to Giants fans is that it appears reliever Sergio Romo has found his groove again. He came in to relieve Javier Lopez in the seventh with runners on and proceeded to strike out Matt McBride and Rosario with a pair of nasty sliders to end the inning.

Posey has been on fire since the All-Star break.

The Giants’ offense continued to impress in this third and final game of the series especially from their newest addition, Hunter Pence. Pence went 2-5 with 2 doubles and 3 RBI. In his previous four games with his new club, he was just 2-17. Melky also went 2-5 with his tenth triple of the year, good for second in the National League. Posey was 2-4 with a walk and an RBI single, giving him at least one RBI in his last four games and a total of eight in that span. He also has 26 RBI since the All-Star break which leads the National League.

The Giants head on to St. Louis tonight for a four-game series that starts tomorrow. Although the Cardinals are 7.5 games back in the Central division, whereas the Giants lead the West, they’re only one game behind the Giants in the win column.

Once again Tim Lincecum is out early. The two-time Cy Young winner can’t make it out of the 4th after giving up six earned runs in 3.1 innings. He also left the bases loaded for his replacement, Clay Hensley, with only one out. The final straw came when Lincecum allowed an RBI single to the Pirates pitcher A.J. Burnett with the bases loaded to make it 4-0 Pirates.

The game is now 13-2 heading into the 9th, so let’s just direct our attention to the ever-disappointing Lincecum. Just as it looked like he was starting to get his stuff back after two impressive outings against the A’s then Dodgers a couple weeks ago, his control has disappeared on this east coast road trip. The Nationals battered him for seven runs in another outing that just lasted 3.1 innings.

It might finally be time to send Lincecum to the bullpen and give him a chance to figure things out for a couple weeks where the outcome of the game won’t be so dependent on him. Although Brad Penny gave up his first two runs of the season today and hasn’t been with the Giants at the Major League level very long this year, he has shown great control and durability in a middle reliever role. I say slide him into the rotation for a while and see what happens. There’s really nothing to lose while Lincecum continues to worry Giants fans with every start. The one through five rotation could look like this: Cain, Bumgarner, Vogelsong, Zito, Penny. It’s a great split between the righties and lefties and bumps Vogelsong up from the five spot to the three. He’s been tremendous this year and needs a more prominent role in the rotation. And I’m a big fan of Cain being number one ahead of Bumgarner.

The Giants will need the most out of Barry Zito if they reach the postseason.

At least for now the Giants are still in contention, even with Timmy pitching but the big concern for the Giants will become apparent once and if the Giants reach the postseason. Where does The Freak fit in?

Although he hasn’t fully proved his worth in the rotation of a real contender yet, Barry Zito is a very realistic replacement for Lincecum when and if the Giants reach the postseason with a four man rotation, and ironic that the man left off the team’s 2010 playoff roster would take the spot of the man who won two World Series games that year. However, unless Brad Penny truly dazzles the coaching staff or Lincecum somehow turns this disastrous season around, it’s likely Zito who will anchor the rotation behind Cain, Bumgarner, and Vogelsong.

Once again Santiago Casilla reminds Giants fans that he is no Brian Wilson. To be honest though, he’s no Romo, Affeldt, Lopez or even a Brad Penny either. With a chance to save the game Casilla gives up two runs in the bottom of the 9th as the Giants get swept for just the second time this season.

The Giants, who wore New York throwback unis, looked at ease and in control through 6 1/2 innings before momentum swayed and they began to fall apart.

After Ian Desmond grounded into an RBI double play in the bottom of the 2nd, the Giants scored 5 unanswered runs over the next five innings which began in the top half of the third. Justin Christian, who started in place of Gregor Blanco for just his seventh appearance of the season, lined a ball down the left field line for a lead-off double. Christian would later score on a Melky Cabrera ground-out to shortstop. After a Posey walk and Sandoval single, Angel Pagan found a gap in left field to bring in Posey.

The Giants then scored in the 4th off a Melky Cabrera RBI double and  again in the 6th when Cabrera brought in Christian on a sac fly to right. Pagan then tripled in the 7th to score a very visibly fatigued Sandoval from first. Then in the bottom half of the inning it all came crumbling down, and the 5-1 lead slowly disappeared over the next few innings. Cain surrendered back-to-back homers to Ian Desmond and Danny Espinosa with one out. After getting Jesus Flores to fly out to center, Jeremy Affeldt came into relieve Cain but couldn’t stop the onslaught and gave up an RBI double to the young Bryce Harper, making it 5-4 Giants, before Romo got the G-men out of the inning.

Casilla blows his fourth save on the season

After a quiet eighth, a cloud of doubt began to form as Casilla warmed up in the bullpen. Casilla, who has suffered tremendously as of late and whose confidence has to be a little shaken, gave up a double to deep left center from Tyler Moore to start the bottom half of the 9th, then mishandled a sacrifice bunt from Steve Lombardozzi to leave runners on the corners with no outs. Manager Bruce Bochy came out to calm him down, and the Giants bullpen immediately got to work. The meeting at the mound didn’t help. Bryce Harper lined a single to right and tied up the game. Casilla walked Ryan Zimmerman to load the bases. After getting the force at home on a ground ball from Michael Morse, the Giants needed a double-play to stay alive. After Adam LaRoche hit a ground ball to Theriot at second, it looked like the Giants might force extra innings, but a ball in the dirt from Brandon Crawford was too much for Brandon Belt who couldn’t hold on to the ball at first. Harper scored from third and just like that the Giants were left dumbfounded after a third straight loss to the Nationals.

Once more, Casilla proved he isn’t the reliable closer Bochy hoped he would be. This was his fourth blown save of the season as well as his fourth loss. It’s time to give Romo a second look.

Last week I came up with a list of who I thought deserved to be in the All-Star Game for the American League which you can find here: http://www.prosportsblogging.com/2012/06/15/from-the-stretch-al-all-star-picks/.

Now it’s time for the National League:

Catcher, Buster Posey, Giants: The former Rookie of the Year winner adds a little star power and raw hitting power that Yadier Molina and Carlos Ruiz just don’t have. Plus, Brian McCann has somewhat disappeared this year, even though his three-run double in the 2010 All-Star Game ended a 14 year losing streak for the National League. Runner up, Carlos Ruiz, Phillies.

First Base, Joey Votto, Reds: In the past month Votto has been on an absolute tear. He just recently surpassed Melky Cabrera for highest AVG in the Major’s and thanks in part to Matt Kemp’s injury problems, Votto is now the favorite for NL MVP. Runner up, Freddie Freeman, Braves (but it’s not even close).

Joey Votto is making a run for a second MVP Award

Second Base, Dan Uggla, Braves: This is easily the weakest position in the NL, and Uggla just barely beats out Brandon Phillips of the Reds for the spot. Uggla has the power while Phillips has the AVG, but ultimately it comes down to who gets on base more, and Uggla’s .376 OBP beats Phillips’ .330. Runner up, Brandon Phillips, Reds.

Shortstop, Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies: This position is actually pretty competitive with the likes of Tulowitzki, Rafael Furcal, and Starlin Castro. Ultimately it’s not so much what Tulo does better as it is what Furcal and Castro are missing. If the All-Star Game was played in late May, Furcal would have been the hottest hitter on the NL roster, but since the first of June his AVG has dropped dramatically. As for Castro, his AVG is exceptional but his OBP is only .013 higher which means Castro swings at everything. He’s not taking any pitches and not making pitchers work for their outs. Plus, he doesn’t seem to pay much attention while out in the field: http://www.csnbayarea.com/sportsnetBayArea/search/v/57292126/starlin-castro-mental-error-is-embarrassing.htm. Runner up, Starlin Castro, Cubs

Third Base, David Wright, Mets: It’s hard to say what might have been if Pablo Sandoval wasn’t forced to sit out a few weeks with another broken bone in his right hand, but the reality is that David Wright has kept the Mets’ offense relevant and reliable behind the career year of R.A. Dickey. He led the Major’s in AVG at the start of the season and is still hitting over .350. Runner up, Pablo Sandoval, Giants.

Left Field, Melky Cabrera, Giants: What an off-season steal Cabrera has been for the Giants, he leads the Major’s in hits with 101 and Michael Bourn of the Braves, coming in second, is only at 91. Up until recently he led the league in AVG and is now in second with .363, which is good enough for second. Plus his arm in the outfield has saved runs from scoring against the Giants.

Center Field, Matt Kemp, Dodgers: Assuming he’s healthy when All-Star weekend begins, Kemp is a no-brainer for the NL Roster. He’s probably the most athletic and exciting player to watch in baseball. He hits, runs, fields and throws better than most.

Right Field, Carlos Beltran, Cardinals: Anyone who thought Beltran’s career was winding down were sure in for a surprise this season. With a new team, Beltran has found his swing again and is playing like his days in Houston. He’s in the NL top 5 for HR and RBI.

Outfield Runner ups: Ryan Braun, Brewers; Andre Ethier, Dodgers; Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies.

At 37, Dickey is having his best year in the MLB

Starting Pitcher, R.A. Dickey, Mets: It was really hard for me not to put Matt Cain here, but after Dickey’s second straight one-hitter, it’s impossible not to have him start for the NL. After two great starts, Dickey also leads the Major’s in ERA and Wins. However, here’s hoping Cain’s perfect game and career season make him a serious contender for the NL Cy Young. Other pitchers: Matt Cain, Giants; James McDonald, Pirates; Johnny Cueto, Reds; Stephen Strasburg, Nationals; Gio Gonzalez, Nationals.

Closing Pitcher, Craig Kimbrel, Braves: Leads the NL in saves. Runner up, Santiago Casilla, Giants.

Photo Credits: NY Daily News, SportsIllustrated.com

Considering how close we’re getting to the 2012 All-Star game, I figured it was time to make a case for all those I’m picking to represent the American League(National League will come later). Let’s just jump right in:

Catcher, Mike Napoli, Rangers: Other than Joe Mauer’s ability to hit for contact, no one behind the plate is more productive at the plate than Napoli. Runner up, Joe Mauer, Twins.

Designated Hitter, David Ortiz, Red Sox: All he can really do is hit, but once he’s on base, they got to take him out. Runner up, Michael Young, Rangers.

First Base, Paul Konerko, White Sox: As of this morning he’s got the highest AVG in baseball at .364, oh yeah and he’s 36. Runner up, Prince Fielder, Tigers.

Konerko is only getting better with age

Second Base, Robinson Cano, Yankees: This was a tough one between Cano and Kinsler, but ultimately Cano does more for the Yankees as a power hitter than Kinsler does as a lead-off man for the Rangers. Plus, Cano is the reigning Home Run Derby Champion, so he’s already a natural during the All-Star break. Runner up, Ian Kinsler, Rangers.

Shortstop, Derek Jeter, Yankees: Considering he’s practically owned the starting gig for 15 years, I don’t see anybody else in the AL’s weakest competition taking it from him. Runner up, Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians(for his fanatical defense).

Third Base, Adrian Beltre, Rangers: Since 2010 Beltre has just hit the ball harder and harder as his career goes on. He’s had more than 100 RBI in each of the past two seasons and is slowly making even Yankees fans question Alex Rodriguez’s supremacy at the position. Runner up, Miguel Cabrera, Tigers.

Left Field, Josh Hamilton, Rangers:Triple Crown Contender and leading candidate for the AL MVP.

Adam Jones is on the brink of becoming a superstar

Center Field, Adam Jones, Orioles: His athleticism and big play ability in the outfield and at the plate rivals Matt Kemp’s, and since signing that lucrative $85.5 million contract, his production hasn’t really faltered.

Right Field, Curtis Granderson, Yankees: Ever since leaving the Tigers a few years back, his regular season AVG has suffered some, but his transition to a power hitter has been off the charts. Remember what he did last year? 41 HR and 119 RBI.

Outfield runner ups: Nelson Cruz, Rangers; Jose Bautista, Blue Jays; Austin Jackson, Tigers.

Starting Pitcher, Chris Sale, White Sox: This young guy really came out of nowhere this season. He’s leading the AL in WHIP, but the biggest surprise is his 2.05 ERA. The fact that an AL pitcher is that close to a 2 flat ERA halfway through the season is amazing. He doesn’t pitch to other pitchers, he literally pitches to guys designated to only hit the ball. Other pitchers: Jered Weaver, Angels; Justin Verlander, Tigers; Jake Peavy, White Sox; C.J. Wilson, Rangers; Brandon Morrow, Blue Jays.

Closing Pitcher, Chris Perez, Indians: Leads the league in saves. Runner up, Fernando Rodney, Rays.

The first perfect game in the history of the Giants

Well what a night to start. I’m still trying to digest what I just saw.

Where do I even begin when every Giants fan was watching this game so intently? Well when I started watching the game and got a couple innings in, I thought it would be all about the Giants offense. Let’s see, we scored two in the first, then three in the second, and another rally in the third to score two more, was anybody really thinking about Cain pitching? By the middle of the seventh, I didn’t want to see the Giants offense at all. I wanted quick outs if it wasn’t a Giants home run. I wanted to see Cain throw nothing but strike outs and be quick about it. When you talk about Giants Torture, this was a prime example.

Anyway, after the incredible perfect game thrown by Matt Cain and caught by Buster Posey, I had some quick thoughts that sprung into mind right after out 27.

First I thought, “That’s a Cy Young,” and why shouldn’t he be? He’s definitely been the hottest pitcher in the National League that doesn’t throw a knuckle ball. He’s got the second lowest ERA behind the Brave’s Brandon Beachy and it’s just been going down since the start of the season. He’s also now won seven of his last games, not decisions, but games started. This game also puts Cain in position to compete for the starting pitcher in the All Star Game coming up and also helps boost Posey’s popularity for catching a perfect game. But I think it’s pretty clear R.A. Dickey of the Mets will lock that up. He’s tied for the lead league in wins and is third in ERA right behind Cain. And beside one hitting the Rays tonight, he’s the only guy in the league with a knuckle ball, that’s pretty cool, everyone wants to see that in an All Star Game. Regardless of that though, Cain threw the league’s 22nd perfect game tonight in an already career season. He’s definitely in the running now for the Cy Young.

On the flip side I kind of laughed a little that Cain’s perfect game completely took attention away from Cain’s main competition in Dickey’s controversial one hitter. In the bottom of the first of the Mets and Rays game, David wright mishandled a bare handed attempt at a ground ball. It was ruled a hit, and it’s hard to disagree with that after seeing the replay again and again. Still, the Mets are going as far as appealing to the league that it should have been ruled an error. They even admitted it was a long shot, but after Cain’s historic game, the league isn’t going to bother with Dickey. It’s going to be all about Cain tomorrow. This might have been the best ever.