Not even in  our worst nightmares could any Phillies fan have forseen such a fate. The last  place Phillies (16-19) celebrating a series victory over the  even-more-last-place San Diego Padres (12-23).

If not for the efforts of Cole Hamels (5 hits, one ER in 7 IP) and a 3-2 victory, the  Phillies might be trailing the NL East-leading Washington Nationals by more  than six games. So, as of May 13 (Happy Mother’s Day to all of the Moms out there) the 2012 Phillies have a long way to go…in the standings… and this season… before they can live up to the success of Phillies teams of recent years.

Five consecutive NL East titles, two NL Pennants, one World Championship
and a progressively increasing regaulr season win total (89, 92, 93, 97 and
102, which broke the club record set in both 1976 and 1977).

Mike Schmidt, Steve Carlton, Richie Ashburn and Tug McGraw are not walking through that locker room door – and even if they were they will not be part of the active roster. Ryan Howard and Chase Utley are not walking through
that door anytime soon and even when they do, both will be at reduced capacity.

What this means is the current Phillies have two choices. Either win with what
you’ve got or become sellers in July. That’s right. Rumors have begun that Shane Victorino, Cole Hamels and Carlos Ruiz could be on the trading
block should the Phillies fall further out of contention over the next 6 weeks.

Hit the panic button. Change the manager? Might help in the short term, but it makes about as much difference as changing the hitting coach or raising the price of hot dogs at the stadium. Charlie Manuel has been changing the lineup just about every night (23 different lineups in 35 games so far this season) but all that does is rearrange the talent level already in the dugout.

Ruben Amaro has boldly been swapping out fringe players, hoping to catch lightning in a bottle by racking up frequent EZ Pass miles between Allentown and Philadelphia. Michael Schwimmer, Raul Valdes, Brian Sanchez, David Herndon, Erik Kratz, Joe Savery, Jose Contreras, Jake Diekman, Hector Luna, Justin DeFratus, Jeremy Horst, Mike Fontenot & Pete Orr have and will be shuttled back and forth trying to shake things up – not to mention Domonic
Brown. Freddy Galvis was a welcome surprise to start the season – at one point leading the team with 5 RBI but minor league players are not the answer. Changes must occur at the major league level.

Recently, Jake Diekman, Hector Luna and Raul Valdes were brought up from AAA and while they may move the needle a bit here or there, they were in the minor
leagues because they weren’t able to make the major league club in the first place. Diekman comes very highly touted as a lefty with some serious zip but that still doesn’t mean he will supplant Antonio Bastardo as the lead portsider coming out of the bullpen. If he does then Bastardo’s 2011 effectiveness was an illusion and they might as well allow fans to try out for bullpen duty.

Hector Luna has amassed 732 major league at-bats, roughly 100 more plate appearances than a full-time player in a given season. For that effort he has a .265 BA, 18 HR, 86 RBI, 51 BB/145 K and this is over 312 games in parts of 8 seasons. Are we counting on Hector Luna to fire up this offense with his thunder stick, or just
grasping at straws? Why don’t we see if the stadium vendors want a chance to
play? That suds salesmen really has some well-developed forearms from lugging
those frosty brews around. Maybe he can hit a curveball? The cotton candy man
makes change very quickly. Can he turn the double play?

While it is true that 35 games compared to 162 is a mere 21% of the season – but it is
enough of a sample size to understand some very alarming trends. Of the 30
major league teams in 2012, the Phillies rank in the lower half (16^th place or worse) in categories such as Runs scored (19^th), On Base Percentage (22^nd), Slugging (20^th), OPS (22^nd) and of course RBI (18^th). Now if anyone thinks that Ryan Howard and
Chase Utley can bridge that gaping chasm between the Phillies offense and the
scoring output of the MLB elite, more power to you – because you will need it!!
If PECO sent 1.21 jigawatts into Citizens Bank Park, the Phillies might have a
chance but $178 million dollars has to buy you better production than this.

The pitching has been excellent overall (13^th in overall ERA, while the starting
rotation ranks in the Top 5) but the defense has gone south right along with
the offensive offense and the putrid bullpen (aside from Jonathan Papelbon who is 10-10 in save chances).

The positive news is that Joe Blanton (3-3, 3.24 ERA) and Vance Worley (3-2, 3.07) have paired with Roy Halladay (3-3,  3.20), Cole Hamels (5-1, 2.28) and Cliff Lee (0-1, 2.17 in 4 starts) to comprise a formidable starting staff. Without those starters plus Papelbon (2.57 ERA, 10 SV in 10 SVOP over 14 games) this team would be the San Diego Padres, who the Phillies just barely beat in a weekend series.

Actually the Phillies are 3-9 in games started by Halladay and Lee so there is much room for improvement there. The bullpen has been as effective as they Keystone Kops while the Phillies defense has been a comedy of errors. Combine that with an ineffective offense and a collection of creaky old veterans (Jim Thome, Laynce
Nix, Placido Polanco) trying to stave off another DL stint AND the galling
fact that Raul Ibanez (.273, 7 HR, 21 RBI) is playing better than Hunter
Pence and you can see why Ruben Amaro and the Phillies braintrust have been punching walls and pulling out their hair this season.

$178 million dollars sure doesn’t buy what it used to… Maybe it is best to do what the Padres have done? Give up on winning, keep payroll low, play second-rate talent and hope that the fans show up to the ballpark anyway. Or… in translation the period of time between 1985-1992 at Veterans Stadium. For fans who don’t remember those days it was like attending a funeral 81 times a year and knowing that the pallbearers were being paid millions to stink up the joint!

At least when expectations are low and the mood is already sombre there is no hope of winning. Then when you surprisingly break the .500 mark it is reason to
celebrate. Thankfully the Houston Astros (who are essentially a minor league
team disguised in major league uniforms) are up next. If an Astros series
following a Padres series doesn’t fix what ails you then there isn’t much point
of getting up in the morning!

Two choices for Phillies fans… you can either hit the snooze button and wait until September or you can hit the panic button and get worried.

Snooze button? OR Panic Button?

Nobody but nobody gets excited about the standings over the first two weeks of the regular season. Anything before Memorial Day doesn’t seem to have meaning though all 162 games are supposed to count evenly. April is the honeymoon month of the
long Major League season as fans are simply happy to get back to the ballpark
and enjoy the sights and sounds of meaningful baseball. Weather gets warmer,
school lets out and by the beginning of the sweltering summer, baseball is
moving at a full gallop but spring surprises can be as commonplace as MLB snow
delays (not including games in Denver). If you’re not happy with the baseball
season, you need only wait a week and see what changes.

At 5-7 the
2012 Phillies do not resemble their 102-win counterparts from 2011, but even
less so when the starting lineup features names such as Mayberry, Nix, Wigginton and Galvis.
Ryan Howard and Chase Utley have been just about as visible as Pete Mackanin while pitching of the remaining Three Aces have been
the defining characteristic of this young 2012 season. Baltimore (8-5) and
Washington (10-3) lead the American and National League East respectively while
Texas (10-2) and the formerly bankrupt Dodgers (10-3) rule the West. 10 other
NL teams sport better records than the Phillies while 8 AL teams have fared
better. When teams like the Mets (7-5) and Seattle (7-6) find themselves in
second place with 11,000 fans per game, either it is early in the season or
someone has held a mirror up to the standings.

Forecasts of
the apocalypse may have pervaded the Mayan calendar and clouded Philadelphia
media alike but this team had problems before the news that their third and
fourth hitters would be missing from the lineup for half the season. Ever since
the 2011 season ended with Ryan Howard
limping, wincing and collapsing on the Citizens Bank Park turf amid St. Louis
Cardinals odd NLDS celebration the Phillies organization has feared the worst. Chase Utley’s chronic knee and related
issues date back to 2008 and culminated when the stalwart second baseman missed
the first 40 games of 2011. Brad Lidge
and Ryan Madson departed along with Raul Ibanez and Roy Oswalt but the team payroll still ballooned to $178 million. That
financial bubble still doesn’t include a long term deal for Cole Hamels nor does it account for the
future of Hunter Pence or Shane Victorino. Perhaps $25 million
for Howard, $40 million for Roy Halladay
and Cliff Lee plus $12.5 M per year
for the combination of Jonathan Papelbon
and the illustrious alter-ego known as “Cinco-Ocho.”

Some change
and surprise can be a good thing. Who would have expected Freddy Galvis to be the Phillies RBI leader for nearly a week (5
led the team until Hunter Pence took
over the lead with 7, while Raul Ibanez
has 9 with the Yankees)? Who would have expected the Phillies 2012 rotation to
improve with the subtraction of Roy
Oswalt and the re-insertion of Joe
Blanton? Over 83 IP the Phillies starters sport a combined 2.96 and 1.10
WHIP – good for 3^rd place in MLB. Of course the offense has been
struggling to support their pitching staff, netting a mere 35 runs (2.91 RPG)
in 12 games (29^th in MLB). Last night’s 10-inning 1-0 loss to San
Francisco was emblematic of the Phillies season. Cliff Lee throws over 9 shutout innings and the starting eight
looks more like the Dead Ball Era than the five-time NL East champs. Only
Pittsburgh has a less productive offense while the Phillies lag two games worth
of runs behind Oakland (39).

Even the
least observant Phillies fan will tell anyone that may listen that this
Phillies team needs some offensive help. Even when Ryan Howard and Chase Utley
do return to the lineup they will not be at full force, meaning that Hunter
Pence, Shane Victorino and Jimmy Rollins will be asked to power the offense
along with contributions from a collection of Jim Thome, Ty Wigginton, Lance Nix, Placido Polanco and Juan Pierre. What to do? Ride it out?
Mix-N-Match lineup components for an entire season? Have fans take turns
batting cleanup? Domonic Brown looms
in AAA while the Phillies have a lot of personnel decisions to make regarding
Joe Blanton, Cole Hamels and Polanco.

Could a
trade be possible? With whom? What self-respecting team would want to swing a
deal now that a second wildcard has been added? There may not even need to be
any deals made before the July 31 trading deadline because 20-25 teams will
have a realistic shot at postseason play. This means that trade partners will
be limited to teams such as Baltimore, Kansas City, Houston, Pittsburgh and
Oakland – and even then the needs have to match up. Will one of those teams
deal a slugger for Domonic Brown or
will it take a slew of the Phillies remaining few prospects to land yet another
Joe Blanton or Roy Oswalt? Would Jeff
Francoeur or Ryan Ludwick or Josh Willigham be enough to bolster
this lineup? That plan works one year or maybe two but eventually it depletes
the farm system and creates a team of well-paid aging veterans. Sound familiar?

The season
is long and the offense will get better. Thankfully the Phillies head for Petco
Park in lovely San Diego. Not only have the Phillies gone 15-2 in Petco’s
luxurious confines since 2007 but their starting pitchers have the best ERA
there of any visiting staff over the same period of time. Look for the Phillies
to rebound from a tough San Francisco series by teeing off on the Friars over
the long weekend series.

More than ever, it seems anyone’s guess about who will be winners and losers for the upcoming 2012 MLB season. Injuries, weather, schedules, surprise prospects, new stadium effects on statistics, El Nino or barometric pressure indices all have an effect upon whether it becomes a year for pitchers, hitters, baserunners or mascotts. What is certain is that baseball still boasts the longest, most grueling and most relevant proving ground to determine postseason contenders.

MLB’s 162-game schedule is unmatched but this year an extra wildcard team has been added. More importantly the balance of superstars seems to have migrated to the American League while baseball’s worst team resides in the National League (for now). New stars are sure to emerge while new-look teams debut in new stadiums and surprise teams assert their relevance either within their division or across leagues.

Enclosed below you will find my predictions of candidates for Cy Young, MVP and Rookie of the Year Awards. By midseason we will update these and predict possible winners based on performance.

MOST VALUABLE PLAYER AWARD

American League Contenders:

Prince Fielder, DET  .307 BA, 44 HR, 143 RBI

Albert Pujols, LAA   .300 BA, 38 HR, 140 RBI

Evan Longoria, TBR  .326 BA, 37 HR, 115 RBI

Miguel Cabrera, DET, .320 BA, 42 HR, 140 RBI

Jose Bautista, TOR  .329 BA, 49 HR, 140 RBI

National League MVP Contenders

Joey Votto, CIN   .309 BA, 35 HR, 103 RBI

Troy Tulowitski, COL  .310 BA, 32 HR, 105 RBI

Ryan Braun, MIL  .320 BA, 35 HR, 125 RBI

Matt Kemp, LAD  .325 BA, 40 HR, 130 RBI

Hunter Pence, PHI  .315 BA, 35 HR, 110 RBI

CY YOUNG AWARD

American League Contenders:

Justin Verlander, DET  22-9, 2.50 ERA

Felix Hernandez, SEA  17-12, 3.40 ERA

C.C. Sabathia, NYY  21-10, 3.00 ERA

Jered Weaver, LAA  18-10, 2.41 ERA

James Shields, TBR  17-11, 2.80 ERA

National League Cy Young Award Contenders

Clayton Kershaw, LAD  18-9, 2.33 ERA

Cliff Lee, PHI  21-7, 2.35 ERA

Cole Hamels, PHI  21-10, 2.02 ERA

Roy Halladay, PHI  18-11, 2.37 ERA

Chris Carpenter, STL  17-7, 2.48 ERA

 AL ROOKIE OF YEAR

Yu Darvish, TEX

Yoenis Cespides, OAK

Matt Moore, TBR

NL ROOKIE OF YEAR

Bryce Harper, WAS

Drew Pomerantz, COL

Yonder Alonzo, SDP

2012 FINAL STANDINGS

…and finally… predictions for the 2012 Regular Season Finish. Postseason predictions still to come!

Jason Peters the five-time Pro Bowl offensive tackle for the Philadelphia Eagles, will undergo surgery Tuesday after rupturing the Achilles tendon in his right leg while working out in Texas. Peters, 30, suffered the injury on March 27, the team said in a statement. Apparently the injury occurred while Peters was participating in his usual offseason workout routine and is similar to that suffered by Phillies first baseman Ryan Howard to end the 2011 NLDS.

Peters had  just completed his best season, anchoring the Eagles offensive line and helping  LeSean McCoy to a career season (17  TD, 1309 rushing yards plus 3 rec TD). The Eagles rushing offense also improved  (to 5^th overall in rushing yards) throughout the 2011 season thanks  to Peters influence on rookies Jason  Kelce and Danny Watkins as well  as young Julian Vandervelde. Peters  was selected to the 2011 Pro Bowl as a starter and was a 2010 second team All-Pro selection.

While there is no doubt that the injury to Jason Peters is a crushing blow for an Eagles team that believed its offensive line would be a strength in 2012, this does not fell the Eagles hope to return to the playoffs. Peters’ season-ending injury is a decimating shock, but the impact may be counterbalanced by the odd timing of the incident.

With one month to go before the 2012 NFL Draft and the entire spring and summer to make other roster moves, the Eagles do have a few solid options to recover from such a setback.  They could choose to use their first round (15^th) pick on an offensive tackle or they might find some talent on the waiver wire. This will be determined largely by the long-term prognosis for Peters’ return in 2013…or 2014.

According to medical sources, Peters’ ankle likely would be immobilized for two to four weeks, and he would undergo physical therapy for motion and strengthening over several grueling months. He likely will miss a minimum of four to six months of
football activity. Surgery to repair the tendon is scheduled for the Rothman
Institute in Philadelphia and will be performed by Dr. Steve Raikin. Once completed, the recovery timetable will be determined.

The Eagles acquired Peters from the Buffalo Bills for the 28th overall pick in 2009. The Eagles also sent a fourth-round pick (121st overall) in the 2009 NFL Draft and a late conditional pick (6th round) in the 2010 Draft. Peters has been named to every Pro Bowl since 2007 and has become one of the preeminent offensive linemen in the NFL. He played five seasons for the Bills, 3½ as a starter. Undrafted out of Arkansas, Peters (6-foot-4,  340-pound) is a native of Queen City, Texas. Due to the
dispute with the Bills Peters was traded on April 17, 2009.

On April 17, 2009, the Eagles announced they had signed the newly-acquired Peters to a six-year contract for $60 million to keep him in Philadelphia through 2014. Peters had two years left on his existing contract, so Philadelphia had essentially torn up the last two seasons and given him a new contract. Head coach Andy Reid  (a former offensive lineman himself and long a proponent of the importance of a  strong presence in the trenches) added,

“Jason Peters is the best left tackle in football. He is a powerful and athletic tackle and I have admired his play over the last few years on film.”

While the prognosis for Peters remains to be seen, it was a matter of hours before contingency plans for the Eagles became the fodder of rumor mongers. The first move by the team was to re-sign King Dunlap, which ensures depth on the offensive line but Dunlap has proven that he is not a 16-game starter in the NFL. He is an adequate and oversized backup at several positions.

Evan Mathis had already chosen to return weeks earlier and the remainder of the  starters will return for 2012. Howard Mudd, Andy Reid and Howie Roseman
will likely have their work cut out for them trying to swing a trade when all 31 teams know the Eagles are in need of veteran talent. Quality offensive tackles certainly do not grow on trees and teams tend to hoard offensive line talent as much as franchise QB or rookie contract RB for obvious reasons.

Essentially the Eagles need to determine whether or not the Peters injury will derail their 2012 draft strategy or simply accelerate the search for Peters’ eventual successor. Originally the positions of need had been identified as linebacker, safety, cornerback and then seeking depth at OL, RB, QB or possibly WR. Salary cap and other considerations will all factor in,
but since the Eagles have not made their draft strategy public, this is all pure speculation.

Recent moves such as trading for MLB DeMeco Ryans, re-signing disgruntled DeSean Jackson (who now appears much more gruntled) and inking Trent Edwards to compete with Mike Kafka
replacing Vince Young as a backup QB
have collectively confused the public and media alike.

Free agency is probably the best option for an Eagles
team more afraid over the over 30 crowd than the overseers in Blade Runner. Most of the available options are roughly the same age as Peters but the Eagles seem to be targeting younger. Rumors of Baltimore Ravens Michael Oher being part of a trade involving Asante Samuel is pure speculation at this point, but Samuel’s being on the trading block is concrete reality. Samuel could be involved in a deal placing him in a different uniform for 2012 and should welcome such an opportunity.

Demetrius Bell

Several sources have already identified Bell as he top
option. The Eagles already have a visit lined up with the former Buffalo Bills starting left tackle and have a lot of success plucking offensive line talent from Western New York State. While he’s battled injuries of his own, Bell has started 30 career games and would represent a smart Band-Aid option until  Peters comes back in 2013, not to mention a certain symmetry of substituting  for Peters.

Marcus McNeill

McNeill was cut from San Diego due to injury issues over
the last two years. Philadelphia could certainly offer a chance to prove he can stay healthy and win the job on the left side. McNeill isn’t far removed from
the days when many considered him a top left tackle AND Coaches Reid and Mudd are proponents of the “you-can-never-have-too-many-offensive-lineman” principle.

Barry Richardson

One of the NFL’s least effective tackles the last two years, but Richardson is still just 25 years old and could use a change of  scenery. While no one should expect him to be the ultimate answer, Richardson might be worth a roster invite to see if offensive line coach Howard Mudd can get anything out of the  youngster. He certainly would be the least costly investment of the group.

2012 Draft could offer several very appealing options on
the offensive line. Predicting the NFL Draft past the first 5 spots is like asking a group of quadriplegic lepers to herd cats in a zero gravity environment while wearing blindfolds.

There are so many moving parts, potential deals and surprise picks that we’d be fools to try but we do so anyway because it is fun. Expectations are that Andrew Luck goes to Indianapolis with the first pick, followed quickly by Washington  snatching RGIII second.

Minnesota holds the third pick and could go several different ways, possibly considering help at skill positions (Trent Richardson, Ryan Tannehill, Justin
Blackmon), offensive line (Matt
Kalil) or something entirely departed from conventional wisdom. Following
them are Cleveland and Tampa Bay, who have very real desperation on the
offensive side of the ball and who are very likely to grab Richardson or
Blackmon if available.

Since the Eagles pick at number 15, any number of possibilities may present themselves. A trade is unlikely but Asante Samuel has appeal to some NFL teams. Most likely the Eagles will wait patiently and take the best available player with that 15^th overall pick. Perhaps this
would be OL Matt Kalil or LB Luke Kuechly, CB Morris Claiborne or even QB Ryan Tannehill. The Eagles did take a long look at all three players during
the NFL Scouting Combine and also did their homework on Robert Griffin III indicating that they may be just as likely to
draft Michael Vick’s successor as
they would to address their glaring needs on defense.

Would DE Melvin Ingram or Qunton Coples be able to start opposite Trent Cole or get lost in the rotation of complimentary pass rushers? Is Riley Reiff a huge
dropoff from Kalil or are both OL blue chip caliber players? Perhaps the Eagles
will wait to see if Dontari Poe falls to them in an effort to shore up their DT situation? Quoth the Eagle…ya never know!

RELATED ARTICLES: http://www.prosportsblogging.com/2012/03/04/serious-safety-issues/

The 2012 Phillies are now a mere one week away from their Citizens Bank Park debut and we’re still not sure who will show up. This team won 102 games in 2011 but
bowed out in the NLDS to the eventual champion St. Louis Cardinals – marking
the third straight year the Phillies have lost to the eventual champions in
postseason (2010 San Francisco Giants NLCS and 2009 New York Yankees World
Series).

In December and January the Phillies made a number of moves to improve their bench and overall team depth acquiring such players as Juan Pierre, Jim Thome, Lance Nix, Ty Wigginton, Jonathan Papelbon and Dontrelle Willis.

Each and every one of those new faces along with some familiar old faces (Thome is technically an old face as a former Phillie and team graybeard) will be needed as this team will use platoons, pitching, defense and smallball to compensate for their lack of run production.

2011 ended painfully in NLDS

102-60, NL East Champs, Lost NLDS to STL

ADDITIONS:

Jonathan Papelbon, Jim Thome, Lance Nix, Ty Wiggington,
Dontrelle Willis, Chad Qualls, Juan Pierre, Jeremy Horst

Papelbon cost $50M to be the new closer

SUBTRACTIONS:

Raul Ibanez, Brad Lidge, Ryan Madson, Wilson Valdez, Ben
Francisco, John Bowker, Roy Oswalt, Joel Piniero, Ross Gload

POSITION BATTLES:

LF-Pierre/Nix/Podsednik/Mayberry;
INF-Galvis/Orr/Martinez/Franzden/Luna

BULLPEN:  Chad Qualls/Scott
Elarton/Jose Contreras/Dontrelle Willis/Joe Savery/Phillippe Aumont/Justin DeFratus/Diekman/David Herndon/ Michael Schwimmer/Dave Bush/Jeremy Horst/Brian Sanches/Rosenberg/David Purcey

ARMAGEDDON: Last year I suggested that barring a  comet hitting the earth, the Phillies would win their fifth straight NL East  Divisional title, which they did (plus 102 games to boot). It’s not a comet but  perhaps an asteroid-sized hole in the right side of the infield and the 3-4
spots in the lineup – both of which will be missing Chase Utley (avg .290, 27 HR, 101 RBI) and Ryan Howard (avg .275, 45 HR, 136 RBI) to begin 2012. Howard is  still in recovery from the hellaciously gut-wrenching left Achillies injury  which ended the Phillies 2011 NLDS in dramatic fashion. Some saw Howard  launching bombs in batting practice two weeks ago and assumed he would be back
early. Others familiar with the injury know that it sometimes takes an entire  year for that core strength to truly return. Utley sat out all of Spring
Training 2011 plus the first 8 weeks of the season due to a chronic knee  condition (chondromalacia) and while  he managed nearly 400 AB in 103 games (.259 BA, 11 HR, 44 RBI) he is a shadow  of his former self.

Utley begins another season on DL

DAMAGE: In fact, now it is Utley’s OTHER knee which has developed complications as a result of compensating for the chronic condition. Utley has
taken infield practice from a chair and has not played one inning of Grapefruit League ball in 2012. All the rest in the world won’t keep Utley from the same fate that eventually felled Mickey Mantle, Stan Musial and Babe Ruth –  Father Time.

Utley’s knees are never going to get better and at age 33, he must
decide the quality of the remainder of his life – especially in light of an
$85M contract through 2013. The truth regarding these two living legends must
lie somewhere in the middle but that means Utley may play three times a week
while Howard could return anywhere between May and September!

STORYLINES: Take your pick. Utley/Howard have dominated the headlines. Jonathan Papelbon (219 SV, 2.33 ERA, 1.018 WHIP and two world  championships) is the new $50M closer while Ryan Madson (Cincinnati) and Brad
Lidge (about $10M combined 2012 salary) toil for other NL clubs.

Lidge has already proclaimed that his new Washington Nationals teammates are finest
collection of major league talent he has ever played with, which is nice of him  to say.

RESCUE ME: Conventional wisdom would suggest that sometime around July, Lidge and  his mediocre mish-mosh of mongrel major league talent will feel like the angry
golfer who chucked his entire golf bag into the lake and then needs to
sheepishly borrow clubs to finish the round so as to avoid wading in to retrieve his $3,000 golf clubs from their nautical fate. Of course, that is merely my opinion and I could be entirely wrong. Brad Lidge may also realize that he was wrong. Ryan Madson could have remained in Philadelphia for $11M per season. Jonathan Papelbon is the Phillies closer and even at $50M this is a very good deal for all parties.

NEXT UP: Other headline-grabbers include Jim Thome playing first base for the first time since 2007, Hunter Pence being the only serious power threat in the lineup and the reduction in force of aces from four to three.

ACES WILD: Will Vance Worley, Joe Blanton and possibly Kyle Kendrick make up for the departure of Roy Oswalt? Could Blanton be trade bait? Most importantly, who will serve as the supporting cast in the 2012 Phillies bullpen?

PLATOON: Not much can be done but develop some sense of patience for Howard’s recovery. Philadelphia sports fans are not known for their patience, but they may be distracted by the cavalcade of platooning contributors including  Jim Thome, John Mayberry, Ty Wiggington, Brian Schneider, Juan Pierre, Freddy Galvis and Lance Nix. Matchups will determine circumstance,
also balanced with the corollary carousel in left field, which could see Juan Pierre, Scott Podsednik, Nix, Mayberry and possibly even Wigginton or Placido Polanco at times. Third base will be shared by Polanco and Wigginton while Rollins remains the stalwart on this infield and leader of this team at shortstop.

FRINGE: Essentially the goal is to keep as many solid bats in the lineup while counter-matching opposing pitchers. Thome and Wigginton will see more playing time in the first half of the season until Howard’s return. Freddy Galvis will prove whether or not he can replace Michael Martinez as the utility infielder while names such as Pete Orr and Scott Podsednik should contribute. This bench is the strongest in Philadelphia since the days of mullets, muscle shirts and Macho Row and this season will be a full team effort from top to bottom.

BLACK HOLE: Second base is a huge void in the wake of Chase Utley, which should be filled by Pete Orr, Kevin Franzden, Michael Martinez (2011’s Rule 5 steal  from Washington) and most likely Freddy Galvis. This reminds Ruben Amaro that he might not have wanted to trade supersub Wilson Valdez this particular offseason.

Galvis has shone in Grapefruit League play, displaying power and grace not often seen in 526 minor league games (.246 BA, 18 HR. 160 RBI over 5 seasons). He has always been a slick fielder, but Galvis has shown that his bat could provide some sting.

Galvis goes from AA to starting on Opening Day

Despite the optimism, Freddy Galvis is no Chase Utley. Martinez (88 games, 234 PA, .196 BA), Galvis and Pete Orr  (.254 BA over parts of 6 seasons) combined don’t measure up to Chase Utley but then again, Chase Utley is no longer  the Chase Utley he once was.

With a $178M payroll, it is very unlikely that the Phillies will seek outside help past Franzden, Hector Luna, Orr and Martinez (broken hand). None of the available open market options (Omar Vizquell, Alberto Callaspo, Macier Izturis) truly make a difference like Tad Iguchi did subbing for Utley in 2008.

OFFENSE: Surely the lineup will still contain 8 regular players plus a starting pitcher, but this team is worlds apart from
the 2008 Broad Street Bombers or even the 1976 Liberty Lumberjacks.

RED: What they will offer is a longer lineup of professional hitters fighting for
opportunity. Shane Victorino, Carlos
Ruiz and Hunter Pence are now
the veteran stalwarts of this lineup while Jimmy  Rollins decides if either he or Shane Victorino would be better served in the familiar leadoff position or  hitting third in front of Hunter Pence.

The rest of the lineup will change daily so don’t look for anyone to know where
they will hit or when they will play from day to day. Juan Pierre or Shane
Victorino may split the leadoff duties while Polanco, Wigginton, Mayberry, Rollins and Ruiz could hit anywhere from 1 through 8 in the order.

POWER SOURCE: Most likely Pence will hit 3^rd or 4^th offering Jim Thome as protection whenever possible. Ty Wigginton should also see some time in the meat of the order along with Mayberry, Lance Nix or possibly Shane Victorino.

With Ryan Howard (140 RBI) and Chase Utley gone until possibly May or June, this lineup has to find offense somewhere. Perhaps Rollins, Victorino and Pierre will be asked to steal more bases or Manuel will be forced to use more hit and run situations toward the bottom of the lineup.

Charlie Manuel does not like to mix and match but he will have very little choice. His “starting lineup” remained intact for fewer than 20 games each of the previous two seasons but 2012 will truly prove whether or not Manuel is a superior manager or exceptionally lucky to have this much talent on one team.

D-TRAIN  DERAILED: Virtually no one seems to be talking about  the release of Dontrelle Willis. The  affable free-wheeling lefty signed to a non-guaranteed $1 million contract,  hadn’t performed well by any standard. While it’s still fairly early in spring  training, the Phillies felt they had enough evidence to determine that he wouldn’t live up to their expectations. This is a far cry from the fireballing sidewinder who caught lightning in a bottle in the 2003 World Series.

SOLE TRAIN: In 2 2/3 innings this spring, Willis allowed 9 baserunners (four BB) with no strikeouts. His ERA soared past sixteen and he looked more like the Dontrelle who struggled upon leaving the Marlins than the lefty-killer from the 2011 Reds.

SOUTHPAW SEARCH: Phillies had hoped Willis could fill  the second lefty bullpen spot to compliment Antonio Bastardo but apparently it wasn’t even worth offering Willis a minor league assignment. Numbers compiled during spring training are generally meaningless,  but it was clear through observation that Willis was struggling mightily. He  couldn’t locate his pitches and had no command whatsoever. As we saw with JC Romero, loss of control is only made worse if the manager incorrectly uses him.

Willis is a volatile performer, and the  Phillies want more consistency from the left-handed  specialist role. Nothing is more frustrating than bringing in a lefty specifically to face one batter, resulting in a walk, wild pitch or moon shot. Unfortunately for Willis, despite his tremendous numbers against same-handed hitters last year, the Phillies had an abundance of potential lefty bullpenners in camp.

The Phillies entered spring training with Dontrelle Willis, Pat Misch, Jake Diekman, Raul Valdes, Jeremy Horst, Joe Savery and David Purcey.  Horst was the return on the Valdez trade. Willis is the first to be released while the rest should see time in Lehigh Valley.

NOT-READY-FOR-PRIMETIME BULLPEN: Jonathan Papelbon leads the way, so we know the ninth inning is nailed down. Jose Contreras is still battling rotator cuff and elbow injuries (a.k.a. “Death and Death Lite” for pitchers. Michael Stutes and Antonio Bastardo are expected to step up and build on their success in 2011 -though both seemed to run out of gas over the final six weeks of the regular season.

With Willis gone the rest of the bullpen should be filled with Chad Qualls, David Herndon, Kyle Kendrick and some lottery winner from the likes of the aforementioned David Purcey, Scott Elarton, Joe Savery,
Jeremy Horst. Joel Piniero was discarded mere weeks after his second failed signing with the Phillies and now has been joined on the free agent market by Dontrelle Willis. Phillippe Aumont, Michael Schwimmer and the rest of the field have been relegated to minor league camp but look for Savery, Horst or Elarton to be among the final cuts once the team heads north.

2012 PREDICTION:

Fewer regular season victories and additions down the stretch (Howard, Utley) should permit the Phillies to finally go farther in the postseason. With this new wildcard format, division winners are finally afforded some reward and in any given
series, pitching generally wins the day. The rest of the National League East has improved but the league-wide talent level has dropped.

ACES PLUS: Look for Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay to have stellar seasons, complimented by Vance Worley, Joe Blanton and Kyle Kendrick. Hopefully Joe Blanton doesn’t get a whiff of the postseason and finds a way to not be the albatross around the Phillies proverbial necks. He may win 10 games with a plus 4.00 ERA and surrender 25-30 homers which is also known as the Joe Blanton Special. Sometimes it is better to know what to expect than be disappointed by failed expectations.

BLACKJACK: The Starting Pitching is the cornerstone of this team but the Phillies may be wise to not bunch their Three Aces together. Perhaps inserting Joe Blanton or Vance Worley into the traditional #3 spot will prove effective because the Phillies will win more series with their aces on the mound. They don’t want to go Halladay-Lee-Hamels in one series and then go Worley-Blanton before getting back to Halladay. This strategy will also break up the two dominant lefties. While Vance Worley proved a solid pitcher in his first full season, the fewer games Joe Blanton pitches the better. Barring a trade of Blanton (who wants him) the pitching staff should look something like:

The starting lineup will be a mix-n-match crapshoot until Howard, Utley and Polanco come back full time but could look like this on Opening Day:

2012 PREDICTION: With a mix-n-match lineup, a shutdown closer and one fewer ace in an overall solid rotation these 2012 Phillies may be the most talented roster of all the recent winning seasons.

Look for a return to the World Series in a weakened National League despite an improved NL East field. 97-65 will be good enough for another Fall Classic.

RELATED ARTICLES:

http://www.prosportsblogging.com/2012/02/26/hope-always-springs-eternal/

http://www.prosportsblogging.com/2012/03/10/clearwater-chaos-or-signs-of-spring/

http://www.prosportsblogging.com/2012/01/28/time-for-nl-to-reconsider-dh/

Working out the kinks and essentially re-learning the game of baseball seems an archaic concept in these days of 24-hour news cycles,  year-round strength training and the modern multi-million dollar athlete. Bygone  days of doughy, rough and tumble big leaguers struggling with medicine balls while working out in long johns and borrowed hunting caps may truly be fodder  for newsreels but there is a natural acclimation for all athletes.

This strengthening and re-acclimation period has always been the purpose of training camp and is essential for baseball players. Believe it or not, even our  modern-day professionals take some time off to tend to their
regularly-scheduled lives during the dwindling offseason and when they report to camp, it may take a week of drills and drudgery before the smell of grass and familiarity of team workouts becomes commonplace again.

Building up those
pitching muscles and re-sharpening that batting eye are done only one way –
through repetitive practice and tireless determination. The best hitters usually take the most BP while the most accomplished pitchers often have the
most arduous offseason and in-season routines to maintain their effectiveness.

These 2012 Philadelphia Phillies are coming off a 102-win
season (team record) and while the team boasts five consecutive NL East titles,
two National League pennants and one World Championship since 2007, but not
even 473 wins (averaging 94.6, but more impressively posting progressively more
wins per season with 89, 92, 93, 97, 102) is enough. This team could have
beaten the Yankees in the 2009 World Series and should have been back to the
Fall Classic had it not been for faltering performances in the 2010 NLCS (fell  to the SF Giants) and 2011 NLDS (defeated by St. Louis Cardinals). Being  defeated by the eventual world champions doesn’t take the sting out of coming  up short. After a 162-game season plus postseason and nearly a year’s effort, the  very successful Phillies did not reach their goal in 2011.

All of that begins with Spring Training. Can the Phillies
win another 102 games or do they want to save some gas in the proverbial tank  for the postseason?

Will the loss of Roy
Oswalt, Brad Lidge, Ryan Madson and Raul
Ibanez be bolstered by the importation of Jonathan Papelbon, Jim Thome, Ty Wigginton, Lance Nix and Juan Pierre? Can Charlie Manuel lead this team to another championship before riding
off into the sunset or did the 2008 Phillies win despite their folksy, stubborn  manager?

Is the core of this proud team too old and injury-prone or do they have another run in them? The 2011 Phillies actually were the oldest overall in
team history (and this was a franchise that once featured Pete Rose, Joe Morgan
and Tony Perez not to mention Jerry  Koosman and Steve Carlton in their twilight years) but the 2012 version has shed Ibanez, Oswalt, Lidge, Ross Gload and Wilson Valdez in favor of Vance
Worley, Michael Martinez, Michael Stutes and Antonio Bastardo.

Jim Thome appears  closer to Charlie Manuel’s age than  some of these baby-faced hopeful big leaguers but it does take a roster of  role-players to make a successful major league season. Let’s hope this bunch has the right ingredients for a championship gumbo!

Spring Training is a difficult time to judge the overall strength of a baseball team but that is why they play the
Grapefruit League gamesHere are five burning questions the 2012 Phillies face
as they head into their second week of split squads, PFP, two-a-days and spring
flings.

1. How
healthy are they?

The big question mark is the Big Piece. For
the first time since Ryan Howard
ruptured his Achilles’ tendon while making the final out of the 2011 season, we
will get a chance to see the star slugger’s rehabilitation in action. Last we
heard, general manger Ruben Amaro Jr.
was saying that he would be happy if Howard returned sometime in May. Early BP sessions proved promising as Howard’s Herculean swings made fans ooh and ahh like the old days. The reality is, nobody knows when Howard’s body will allow him to endure the rigors of regular-season baseball. His
complications from scarring required a rush trip back to Philadelphia and Howard has not been seen in BP since. Some athletes have returned from Achilles’ injuries in just over 6 months.

Other recoveries have taken closer to a year. Rehabilitation is a day-by-day process, one that requires careful progression, monitoring of results and patience.

The last thing the Phillies want is to rush their $25-million-a-year first baseman back onto the field before the injury is fully healed – and risk losing him for the rest of 2012. Truth is, this team might leave Clearwater without a clear idea of when to expect Howard back and with hopes of a mid-season debut.

Howard isn’t the only question mark. Last year at this time, none of us knew just how bad Chase Utley’s knee was hurting him. The Phillies gave no indication this offseason that they were concerned about the condition of the knee, which required rigorous treatment throughout the season to combat tendinitis. Utley’s health certainly bears watching and he
would benefit from reduced playing time (2 days off per week).

The same is true
of RHP Joe Blanton, who missed most of last season with elbow soreness that at one point prompted a trip to renowned surgeon Dr. James Andrews. Reliever Jose Contreras is still working his way back from elbow surgery with no timetable whatsoever.

No one is talking about Cole Hamles one-year settlement and contract negotiations could be in the ballpark of 5 years $110 M but for now, Hamels remains a Phillies.

2. How will
Domonic Brown rebound from his next big test?

While it may seem years that Brown has been regarded as the next Willie Mays (or is it the next Von Hayes?), Brown is only 24 years old.

It is easy to forget that Brown entered last season as one of the
top prospects in baseball, or that he at least held his own in 210 major league plate appearances, hitting .245 with a .333 on-base percentage, .391 slugging percentage and 5 HR.

By the end of the year, Brown was mired in the first extended slump since he burst onto the radar, the trade for Hunter Pence having left him with a
stinging demotion to Triple-A and the sudden need to learn a new position. Make no mistake: Brown is still highly regarded around the league, and enters this spring with far less external pressure than he did a year ago, when he was in the mix for an Opening Day roster spot before breaking a bone in his hand. Don’t be surprised if, 6 weeks from now, we are once again talking about whether he deserves a spot in the majors.

Brown will benefit from a full season in AAA and the reduced pressure from not having to perform at the major league level. Long term, this benefits everyone as it will give the organization a true sample of what Domonic Brown might become!

This Spring 2012 Brown has managed to go 2-8 and injure some part of his right hand for the fourth time since 2009. This thumb sprain should not be prohibitive, but it comes on the heels of another bd defensive play predicated upon poor fundamentals (in this instance taking a bad route to the ball and then diving futilely).

Calling Brown “a raw talent” is glossing over the fact that he is an average feast-or-famine hitter with a long swing and terrible defensive tools. While Brown may someday be a five tool player, right now he has proven that he can hit (though way too many strikeouts and still hasn’t mastered breaking pitches), hit with power, run and… well… dive all over the place trying to make up for an iron glove, a weak arm and absolutely no sense of direction in the outfield.

Brown can’t read a ball’s trajectory off the bat, has not yet mastered taking the proper angle on a ball and doesn’t seem to have better depth perception than your average pirate (that’s the eye-patch scurvy variety rather than a Pittsburgh ballplayer). Critics say he will never learn while fans say he needs more time. A full season in AAA
would make Brown a mid-level prospect but comparisons to the likes of Jason
Heyward or Bryce Harper are borderline delusional.

3. Can Jim
Thome play first base?

The odds would seem to be against the
41-year-old veteran contributing much in the field. Jim Thome is a true team player and has said he will try his hardest to get his body into shape to play first once a week or as much as he can. The future Hall of Famer hasn’t played at all in the field since 2007 and has done so only four times at first
base since his first stint with the Phillies ended in 2005. At this point, Ty Wigginton, John Mayberry Jr. and even Laynce Nix seem like better shots to fill in for Howard.

Thome’s progress will be interesting to watch this spring and do not count him out of the mix.

4. How much better is the rest of the National League East?

The Phillies do not play the Miami Marlins or the Nationals during Grapefruit League play. Even if they did, those games would provide a poor
barometer for the upcoming season with split squads, minor league talent and games
dominated by guys wearing number 73. That being said, it will be fascinating to
monitor the buzz surrounding both teams.

National baseball writers from various
outlets make their spring training rounds and do enjoy infusing some life into
morobund teams. Hope springs eternal for the Pittsburgh Pirates or Houston
Astros but that hope is usually dashed long before Memorial Day for such perennial
pretenders. How healthy is Marlins ace Josh Johnson, who missed most of last
season with a shoulder injury? What about Nationals ace Stephen Strasburg, who
returned from Tommy John surgery with a strong performance late last season?
Both teams made significant splashes in the offseason via free agency – not to
mention new stadium deals and other cosmetic changes. After seeing their new-look rosters on their respective new-look fields together, will any brave souls predict a power shift in the NL East? Most likely not but the Phillies should expect more competition from their historically punching bag brethren. 102 wins may not be in the cards unless the Mets really stink.

5. Is this Bullpen Not-Ready-for-Primetime?

Jonathan Papelbon signed a $50M deal but leads a corps of essentially unproven save artists. Last year, Michael Stutes played his way into an early-season call-up with a strong spring. The same occurred in midseason when Antonio Bastardo overcame his historical struggles to blossom into a first-rate
lefty reliever. Others followed but none were as effective as Stutes and Bastardo. Could a well-regarded righty like Justin De Fratus do the same in 2012? What about lefty Joe Savery, who re-invented himself as a reliever last season after first moving from the rotation to the field and
then back into the rotation? There are other intriguing names in camp, including Arizona Fall League all-star game participant Jake Diekman, as well as MLB veterans like Scott Elarton and Joel
Piniero.

Should Joe Blanton and Vance Worley round out the starting
rotation, Kyle Kendrick would
re-assume the role of longman/spot starter but David Herndon, Piniero, Elarton, Dontrelle Willis, Jose Contreras, Chad
Qualls, Phillipe Aumont, David Purcey, Brian Sanches, Dave Bush and
possibly Jeremy Horst could all have
a say in this. At some point this season, most or all of them will be asked to fill a role at the big league level. Some will be diamonds in the rough while others will prove excellent trade bait.

RELATED ARTICLES: http://www.prosportsblogging.com/2012/02/26/hope-always-springs-eternal/

http://www.prosportsblogging.com/2012/01/28/time-for-nl-to-reconsider-dh/

Much of the offseason talk in Philadelphia has been regarding the likes of Peyton Manning, Plaxico Burress or the possibility of trading up to draft Robert Griffin III – but no story has been more overhyped than that of DeSean
Jackson. While it is Jackson’s way to be divaesque, self-centered and
generally a royal pain in the ass (as most of Drew Rosenhaus’ clientele) there
is a more compelling interest for Eagles fans – the defense.

Fans generally like to play fantasy football by getting excited about Reggie Bush, Plaxico Burress, Albert Haynesworth or even Peyton Manning but usually these same fans become disillusioned with the performance garnered from Ronnie Brown, Vince Young or Steve Smith. Cullen Jenkins was the crown jewel of
the Eagles 2011 free agent frenzy, followed closely by Nnamdi Asomugha (though Nnamdi was misused in 2011 and will once again prove himself a shutdown corner in 2012 when paired with Dominique Rodgers-Cromarte).

The 2012 NFL Draft is approaching quickly and many experts project Boston College LB Luke Kuechly as the blue chipper of this defensive class. Kuechly  impressed most at the NFL combine in Indianapolis, including the Eagles brass.
Kuechly quietly got in his stance on the turf at Lucas Oil Stadium and took  off, running a 4.58 40-yard dash and matching the best time he had posted
during training.

NFL Network’s Mike Mayock stated previously that Kuechly needed to run a 4.7 or better. Anything slower than that would lead to doubts about his speed and athleticism. When Kuechly set up for his second run and clocked in at 4.78, the questions from the first time around resurfaced – at first…

“On the first one, I ran real well. Everything went smoothly,” Kuechly said. “On the second one, I didn’t have a good start and slipped coming out. The footing’s not that good at that point since a bunch of guys have already been through it.” Because of the
discrepancy, scouts asked Kuechly to run a third time. He ran a 4.59. Questions?

Three days earlier, Kuechly woke up at 4 a.m. to catch a flight and take part in the NFL’s annual job fair for college prospects. While the workout portion of the combine is televised, the interviews and medical checks are a major part of the process. Kuechly, who measured in at 6-3, 242, estimates he talked to 18 to 20 teams, including the Eagles. The interviews, which took place Saturday and Sunday nights, lasted 15 minutes each. Kuechly said Andy Reid, Juan Castillo and linebackers coach Mike Caldwell were in the room when he met with the Eagles - an interview that was especially straightforward.

Kuechly said coaches would show him a play – either on tape or on the board – and ask him what the responsibilities were of specific defenders. Kuechly, who prided  himself on watching a lot of film at BC, felt comfortable providing answers. Early prognosticators forecast Luke Kuechly to either Seattle (12) or the Eagles (15).

Naturally this could all change should the St. Louis Rams (who also value Kuechly) open up the bidding for the second overall pick and the rights to draft Robert Griffin III. Trades involving Miami, Seattle, Kansas City, Washington or Cleveland would derail the chronology of the draft – and add more teams into the linebacker mix mid-first round. That doesn’t account for Peyton Manning’s situation which would ensure one of those teams rescind their interest in the RG3 Project in favor of the Peyton Manning Experience.

If indeed yet another rookie linebacker (Chaney, Foku, Matthews, Rolle) seems like more of the same, then it would be advisable to watch Kuechly on tape. Combine drills may be valuable on some level but his play on the field (even against collegiate competition) is what bears scrutiny. Meanwhile, the rest of the draft will likely be used to accumulate quality players to fill out the depth chart – specifically at skill positions, special teams and of course… safety.

The Eagles are deep at cornerback (pending Asante Samuel’s fate), but need to upgrade at linebacker and get younger on the defensive line. Both of those positions would be bolstered by a significant upgrade at safety, where the historical precedent has been to keep Brian Dawkins one more year or simply hope that no one notices the gaping void since his departure.

Are the Eagles in the market for safety help or will they stick with their early round picks the past couple of years?

As with linebacker, the Eagles don’t place a premium on the safety position. Their
three best safeties since Andy Reid became head coach in 1999 – Brian Dawkins, Michael Lewis and Quintin Mikell – have all left via free agency. They have signed only one unrestricted free agent to a contract longer than one year – Blaine Bishop for three years in 2002 – but that proved a one-year rental until Lewis was ready.

Dawkins, for the most part, afforded the Eagles the luxury of not having to chase free agent safeties or select one high in the draft. When Dawkins walked in 2009 (not entirely of his own volition) the Eagles failed on a series of mid-round replacement  picks – Quintin Demps, C.J. Gaddis, Sean Considine and J.R. Reed.  Finally in 2010 and 2011 they expended second round picks on Nate Allen and Jaiquawn Jarrett, respectively.

Consider if you will one Nate Allen. The Eagles must gauge their confidence in the
third-year safety for 2012 prior to undertaking an expedition in free agency. Do they believe in the Allen that aggressively made tackles all over the field at Buffalo and finished last season on the upswing? If so, the Eagles can proceed with Allen as their defensive backfield anchor while Kurt Coleman and (2011 Temple product) Jaiquawn Jarrett battle over the other safety spot.

Or do they believe that it wasn’t Allen’s return from a knee injury that led to a preseason benching and that Allen is always susceptible to shaky performances like the one he delivered against the Patriots in late November?

Neither has solidified himself as a slam-dunk starter, although both have legitimate excuses. Allen tore the patellar tendon in his knee in December of his rookie season, and Jarrett was obviously stunted by the lockout last year. Excuses like good intentions don’t win football games – but they often lose them.

In Allen’s case, it’s difficult to determine how much the bad knee hampered his play. He did not openly gripe about his injury but maintained that it was never 100 percent. Despite that, by the fifth game of the season he looked completely healthy, recording a team-high 13 tackles against the Bills. A month later, Allen had regressed and by the New England game was embarrassingly poor in pass coverage. Allen was actually much better in run support than he was against the pass during the season, which is contrary to how he was evaluated coming out of college.

If Allen is indeed better suited to play closer to the line (vs. run), the Eagles lack a true centerfield safety. Neither Coleman nor Jarrett are cover men. Allen and Jarrett, because of their draft positions, will get first dibs at starting. Coleman will return because, despite his physical limitations, he has a better understanding of the position. The question would be whether or not to make this a free agent priority or to simply take whatever scraps may be left over after the multi-million dollar fur has stopped flying. Scavenger free agency if you will.

It also might not be a bad idea to sign not only an insurance policy but a
seasoned mentor for the entire group of young bucks. If so, the Eagles will
need to add more of an impact free agent. Anyone who is brought in to compete, will unquestionably be through free agency or via trade rather than through a high draft pick. This is not a safety-rich draft and the Eagles are already teeming with young potential at the safety position.

While the Eagles will likely target a second- or third-tier safety with a one-year contract, there are several attractive free agents if they decide Allen and company won’t suffice. The pool diluted some when the Raiders and 49ers placed their franchise tags on Tyvon Branch and Dashon Goldson, respectively. There are some appealing safeties expected to be on the market:

Michael Griffin,
Titans. Griffin, a two-time Pro Bowl safety, often gets
labeled enigmatic. In other words, he’s inconsistent. Tennessee could franchise
Griffin since they decided not to tag cornerback Cortland Finnegan. But the
27-year-old looks bound for free agency – perhaps a solid B. Griffin sometimes
gives up big plays and doesn’t always finish strong. Enigmatic means sometimes he can be brilliant.

LaRon Landry, Redskins. Washington franchised TE Fred
Davis, so Landry should be available when free agency opens on March 13.
He’s only played in 17 games over the last two seasons and still has an
Achilles tendon problem. But he’s as feared as any safety in the league. He’s
been working out like he’s He-Man recently which is not likely to help the foot
problem. Beware damaged goods!

Thomas DeCoud,
Falcons. A three-year starter, he isn’t likely to command
Atlanta’s attention with unsigned CB Brent Grimes and LB Curtis Lofton (Grimes
was franchised Friday). DeCoud will probably walk. Classified as “adequate,”
by scouts, DeCoud has good instincts
against the run.

Reggie Nelson,
Bengals. Nelson had his finest season, but he faded some down
the stretch in 2011 and could be a risk to sign – or he could have suffered
post-lockout fatigue syndrome (PLFS). Nelson blitzed a decent amount and came
up with a number of “plus-plays” (4 INT, 2 sacks and 2 forced
fumbles) last season. Nelson can be the engine of a defense and may very well
be the right fit for Philadelphia.

SAFETY FREE AGENT OPTIONS

Michael
Griffin Titans 6-0 203, 27 Former first rounder is inconsistent. Enigmatic is another word.

LaRon Landry Redskins 6-0 220, 27 Still a big hitter, but injury prone. Beware damaged goods.

Thomas DeCoud Falcons 6-2 192, 26 Above average run stopper – with questionable cover skills.

Reggie Nelson Bengals 5-11 206, 28 Wants to stay in Cincinnati – but fits in Philadelphia.

Brodney Pool Jets 6-2 214, 27 Already has 7 seasons under belt entering his prime

Dwight Lowery Jaguars 5-11 198, 26 Has only 29 career starts in 4 seasons.

Jim Leonhard Jets 5-8 188, 29 Tore his patellar tendon in December. Not known for run-stopping

Mike Adams Browns 5-11 200, 30 Getting extremely long in what’s left of the tooth for football years. The NFL does offer an AARP discount over 30.

RELATED ARTICLE: http://www.prosportsblogging.com/2012/02/25/does-trent-edwards-tip-eagles-hand/

It has been 130 seasons – the longest tenure of any franchise in professional sports playing in one city, under one team name. Since 1883 the Philadelphia Phillies have started a season with hope and optimism and in those 130 seasons there have been a grand total of two championships, 7 NL pennants (with World Series losses in 1915, 1950, 1983, 1993 and 2009) as well as having the distinction of becoming the first professional sports team to register 10,000 losses.

Despite seeing fewer years of triumph than sadness over most of the mid-20^th century, there were five MVP Award winners (Mike Schmidt 1980, 1981 & 1986; Chuck Klein 1932; Jim Konstanty 1950; Ryan Howard 2006; Jimmy Rollins 2007), four Cy Young Award winning Phillies (Steve Carlton 1972, 1977, 1980, 1982; John Denny 1983; Steve Bedrosian 1987; Roy Halladay 2010) and four Rookie of the Year Awards (Jack Sanford 1957; Dick Allen 1964; Scott Rolen 1997 and of course Ryan Howard 2005). Thirty five Hall of Fame players have been Phillies – though six players (Richie Ashburn, Steve Carlton, Mike Schmidt, Chuck Klein, Jim Bunning and Robin Roberts) were inducted as Phillies. Pat Gillick (GM) Harry Kalas and Byron Saam (broadcasters) were inducted to their respective wings of the Hall of Fame as well.

This is all past. Hope springs eternal as pitchers and catchers have reported to Spring Training 2012 and soon the Carpenter Complex at Bright House Field will be buzzing with the sounds and smells of 75 players and coaches gearing up for the season ahead. Considering this team has won five straight division titles and is the prohibitive favorite to match their 102 wins from 2011, there are still a lot of questions facing the 2012 Phillies. While the window of opportunity may be closing on this current crop of talented players, both the payroll and management would indicate this organization plans to make at least one more addition to the trophy case.

NEW PLAYERS: Jonathan Papelbon has been brought in with a $50M price tag to be the team’s new shutdown closer (Madson turned down 4 years $44 M for an $8M one year deal with Cincinnati) and while his statistics over 8 seasons are impressive (23-19, 2.33 ERA, 296 G, 219 SV in 248 SVOP, 322 H in 430 IP, 115 BB/519 K, .207 OBA and 1.02 WHIP) it is his proven postseason experience that drove his market price so high. Jim Thome (.256 BA, 15 HR, 50 RBI in 93 games as a DH in 2011) also returns for a final season’s tour hoping to lend a valuable bat and help balance the Phillies bench.

While Thome won’t be putting up monster numbers as he did in his salad days (16 seasons with 25 or more HR with 6 of 40+ from 1997-2006, 604 career HR) he leads a much-improved bench corps, which was the focus of their offseason maneuvers. Ty Wiggington (.242 BA, 15 HR, 47 RBI in 130 games with Colorado last season), John Mayberry, Lance Nix (.250 BA, 16 HR, 44 RBI in 124 games with Washington) and non-roster invitee Juan Pierre (.279 BA, 2 HR, 50 RBI, 27 SB in 158 games in 2011) will each play a role in spelling the starters, hopefully saving something for the elongated postseason run. Most forget that Hunter Pence (.314 BA, 22 HR, 97 RBI) is still new to Philadelphia, having come over in a 2011 Trading Deadline deal but then having his first ever postseason run cut short by the Phillies very painful and premature NLDS exit.

AGE/INJURIES: Every team must deal with the injury bug and Father Time but it seems that the Phillies recent spate of Trading Deadline deals, free agent signings and depletion of the upper levels of their minor league talent has locked them into a one way ticket reading “World Series or Bust.” Some say that is not a good plan but they haven’t seen how much talent is on this roster. Sure Jayson Werth, Geoff Jenkins, Brad Lidge, Ryan Madson, Roy Oswalt, Pat Burrell, Jamie Moyer and Aaron Rowand have become names of Phillies past and former Phils prospects such as Kyle Drabek, Michael Bourn, Lou Marson, Carlos Carrasco, Michael Taylor, JA Happ and many others (15 in total) have been involved in trades to garner Joe Blanton, Brad Lidge, Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Hunter Pence. If anyone can point to one of these deals and prove to me how they did not significantly improve the Phillies as a team I will turn in my credentials and hand you this weekly column!

Chase Utley (34), Ryan Howard (32), Jimmy Rollins (34), Shane Victorino (32) and Carlos Ruiz (33) now comprise the dwindling nucleus leftover from the 2008 championship team but the addition of Wigginton (34) should help spell Utley and Placido Polanco (37). The average age of the Phillies is closer to 35 than 25 (just two players on 40-man roster born after 1989) but match this team up with any in either league and I’d bet hard-earned money the 2012 Phillies match or exceed their 102 wins (and definitely win more postseason games).

STARTING LINEUP: Once Ryan Howard completes his rehabilitation and returns from his excruciating season-ending Achillies injury and offseason surgery, this starting lineup will once again be formidable. Until then, it is a lineup without a legitimate third or fourth hitter, using patchwork and platoons to fill the gaps. Despite a seroma from the surgical stitches, Howard has been wowing onlookers in early batting practice sessions. He still is scheduled to return in mid-May and the team will wait to ensure that once Howard does return he will be in no danger of re-aggravating the injury.

Placido Polanco and Hunter Pence both finished the 2011 season battling sports hernia injuries but expect to be at 100% to begin 2012. Chase Utley’s perpetual issue with knee tendinitis (chondromalacia to be specific http://www.prosportsblogging.com/2011/03/09/utleys-heart-at-wounded-knee/) was the talk of Spring Training 2011.

It will always affect him and caused him to miss 40 games in 2011 after sitting out the entire Spring schedule. Rest is the usual treatment but usual people aren’t asked to turn the keystone double play while leaping over an attacking baserunner and completing the throw to first. Sharing his days off while offering Wigginton or Michael Martinez additional playing time can only help keep Utley upright through the postseason.

The rest of the starting lineup remains intact. Jimmy Rollins tested the free agent waters only to find that his best option was to remain in Philadelphia. Placido Polanco returns with some support from Ty Wigginton, which may mean Polanco could spend time at second base as well as third. Carlos Ruiz is a stalwart behind the plate and seems to improve with each passing season and Shane Victorino has gone from being a Rule 5 draftee (twice) to one of the best centerfielders in the game (two Gold Glove Awards and two All-Star games).

STARTING ROTATION: Three of the Four Aces return (Roy Oswalt has not been asked back) meaning that Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee will now be supported by Joe Blanton, Vance Worley and Kyle Kendrick. Blanton you may recall was the “other” member of the Four Aces rotation, appearing at photo shoots but not doing much on the mound.

Blanton’s battles with injuries and his seemingly endless effort to not look like the dysfunctional semi-literate eyesore of the Phillies Royal Family made it possible for a new kind of Vanimal to emerge in 2011. Vance Worley (11-3, 3.01 ERA in 25 starts) burst onto the scene with a mowhawk, a sports goggles contract and the fearlessness of a ten year veteran pitcher.

Worley even challenged Roy Oswalt for the #4 spot in the rotation for postseason but eventually deferred to the veteran. This year Worley will slot in at either 4 or 5 depending on what Joe Blanton does – or rather what the Phillies do with Blanton. “BBQ Joe” has been trade bait since 2010 but very few teams will even nibble at a 30-year-old pitcher who costs $8.5 M with a record of 73-62 (4.32 ERA, 200 games started in 8 seasons and while averaging 200+ IP, managed just 41 in 2011).

Ideally the Phillies would like to send Blanton anywhere if they could get anything in return, relieving themselves of the $8.5M albatross and slotting Kyle Kendrick (4 years younger, $5 M cheaper and much more willing to start, relieve or mop floors if the team asks him) into that fifth starter’s spot. The other issue remains Cole Hamels long term contract – mainly that he doesn’t have one!

BULLPEN: Believe it or not there is some concern as this group gets younger collectively with some undefined roles. Spending $50 M on new closer Jonathan Papelbon meant that veterans Brad Lidge and Ryan Madson had to join JC Romero, Danys Baez and possibly Jose Contreras as former Phillies. Contreras is still a huge question mark as at age 39 he insists that he can return from a bevy of nagging arm, shoulder and elbow injuries. Meanwhile the team has to move forward with youngsters Antonio Bastardo and Michael Stutes stepping into the setup roles. Chad Qualls, Dontrelle Willis and Joel Piniero have been brought in while Lehigh Valley veterans David Herndon, Michael Schwimmer, Joe Savery, Phillipe Aumont, JC Ramirez and Justin DeFratus would like the chance to battle for the big club. Also in camp will be veteran non-roster invitees David Bush, Scott Elarton, Brian Sanches and lefty Jeremy Horst (from Cincinnati in the Wilson Valdez deal). If Kendrick is not part of the rotation he would be most likely to retain that longman role in this bullpen.

LEFT FIELD: Pat Burrell has retired three years after leaving the Phillies World Series championship team (though he garnered a second title with San Francisco in 2010) and now Raul Ibanez takes his 40-year-old wares to the Bronx to become the Yankees new DH. While it was time to move on, now one foresaw what will be an open competition for the platoon situation. Lance Nix was brought in from Washington to be the left-handed compliment to incumbent John Mayberry. Jr. In addition, Ty Wigginton has offered his services and Juan Pierre was signed to a minor league contract. None of this bodes well for blue chip prospect Domonic Brown who we hope enjoys the local fare in Allentown because Pierre, Mayberry and Nix have all proven they are ready to contribute right now. Mayberry will split time with Jim Thome at first while Wigginton can contribute at 1B, 3B, 2B and both corner OF spots so the left field situation will really be split among Nix/Mayberry/Pierre. Pierre and Mayberry can also spell Victorino in centerfield and Nix has offered to play right field behind Hunter Pence. Despite requiring so many imports to replace one player, the Phillies outfield and bench depth are widely improved over Ben Francisco, Ross Gload and Domonic Brown. Opening Day 2011 Hunter Pence was playing right field for the Astros while the Phillies offered Raul Ibanez, Shane Victorino and John Mayberry.

BENCH: By far this is the most improved area and was the offseason focus (aside from Papelbon). Jim Thome, Ty Wigginton, Juan Pierre and Lance Nix are new to the team. Pete Orr, Kevin Franzden, Michael Martinez and possibly Hector Luna will battle for the utility infielder position now that fan favorite Wilson Valdez is gone. Youngster Freddy Galvis may succeed Jimmy Rollins someday but plans to spend his entire season at AAA Lehigh Valley learning 2B and 3B from manager Ryne Sandberg. Pierre and Scott Podsednik will battle head-to-head for the final OF position but insiders say it is Pierre’s spot to lose between the former White Sox teammates. Podsednik has proven himself a competent AAA players these past two seasons while Pierre is dynamic, reliable and more than willing to earn his spot on this Phillies team. Brian Schneider remains a fixture as Chooch’s backup but Tuffy Gosewich and Sebastian Valle have their eyes on his job – maybe in 2013. Erik Kratz is a 30-year-old minor leaguer with nothing better to do than try to find a way back to the majors but will only do so in the event of an injury to Ruiz or Schneider.

2012 Official Phillies Spring Preview is still about 3 weeks away. Looking for more Phillies news? We’ll be here every week to bring you our take on the subject but you can also feel free to keep up with the Phightins at http://philadelphia.phillies.mlb.com/news/?c_id=phi or find our staff’s best work at http://www.prosportsblogging.com/sports/mlb-baseball/philadelphia-phillies/.

We’ve got baseball and especially your Phillies covered!

RELATED ARTICLE:

Phillies Spring Training Primer http://www.prosportsblogging.com/2012/01/27/spring-training-primer/

OTHER RELATED ARTICLES:

Phillies Future Tense http://www.prosportsblogging.com/2011/10/28/phillies-future-tense/

Phillies Fans Stages of Grief http://www.prosportsblogging.com/2011/10/15/phillies-fans-stages-of-grief/

MLB: NL Preview 2011  http://www.prosportsblogging.com/2011/03/19/mlb-2011-national-league-preview/

MLB Predictions 2011  http://www.prosportsblogging.com/2011/03/26/mlb-predictions-standings-2011/

http://www.prosportsblogging.com/sports/mlb-baseball/philadelphia-phillies/

Front Office Flux Free Agency Flummox Phillies http://www.prosportsblogging.com/2011/11/05/front-office-flux-plus-free-agency-flummox-phillies/

Something Old, Something New http://www.prosportsblogging.com/2011/11/05/something-old-something-new-2/

Phillies Future Tense  http://www.prosportsblogging.com/2011/10/28/phillies-future-tense/

Papelbon Jigs for Phillies http://www.prosportsblogging.com/2011/11/12/papelbon-jigs-for-phillies/

Phillies Seek New Faces http://www.prosportsblogging.com/2011/10/17/phillies-2012-seek-new-faces/

Utley’s Heart at Wounded Knee http://www.prosportsblogging.com/2011/03/09/utleys-heart-at-wounded-knee/

Manning? Flynn? RGIII? No one is saddened that the Vince Young Era in Philadelphia has ended but the Eagles QB position has been a bit of a Merry Go Round following a decade of stability. Less than a year ago the news was that Vince Young was headed into town to replace Kevin Kolb as the Eagles backup QB. Kolb had once been the starter supplanting the departed Donovan McNabb but was sidelined with a concussion to open the 2010 season. Michael Vick’s return to the NFL took center stage and Kolb never really did get his job back. Spending a year (a la Wally Pipp) playing second fiddle to The Human Highlight Reel, Kolb was traded to Arizona where he signed a $60M contract to be a poor man’s Kurt Warner. Meanwhile back on Broad Street, Vince Young was quoted as dubbing the Eagles a “Dream Team” en route to a nightmare season.

Young and third-string Mike Kafka were slated to be the insurance policy against Vick’s $100M propensity for splaying himself all over the field and rarely playing a full season. In 7 games (3 starts) Young managed some seriously sad numbers (66-114 or 58% completion, 866 yards, 4 TD, 9 INT for 60.9 QB Rating) and proved that he was not The Answer (unless the question was “Which backup QB will cost a lot of money and be outplayed by third stringer Mike Kafka?”). Kafka incidentally played in 4 games, went 11-16 (68%) for just 107 yards and managed 2 INT with 0 TD. Despite his performance being “Kafkaesque” by comparison, he made fewer mistakes than Young. The lesson here is that Michael Vick better not get hurt or Doug Pederson (Eagles QB Coach) may be forced to make an appearance under center!

On Thursday, the Eagles announced they’ve signed Trent Edwards to a one-year deal. Edwards mind you who just last season was cut by the Oakland Raiders in favor of Kyle Boller! The former Stanford product and #1-rated QB (USA Today, 2001) may be best known as part of the 2007 Buffalo Bills Willis McGahee trade or for being labeled “Captain Checkdown” during his time in Buffalo.

After being replaced by Ryan Fitzpatrick and waived by Buffalo in 2010, Edwards stood on the sidelines wearing a Jacksonville Jaguars uniform. Eventually he found himself in a game when David Garrard was hurt and the Monday Night Football spotlight proved what most already knew… Edwards performance (14-24, 140 yards, 2 INT, 0 TD) was just about what he was capable of against an NFL defense. In his career 36 games, Edwards has offered about a 60% completion rate, 25 TD to 30 INT (1:1.2 ratio) and 67 sacks. Proof positive to even casual football fans that we have seen what he can and can’t do and what he can do is not very impressive. He sat through all of 2011 after being cut by Oakland despite desperate QB situations in Kansas City, Miami, Washington, Cleveland and Houston.

The Eagles now have three quarterbacks on the roster: Michael Vick, Mike Kafka and Trent Edwards. There is no reason to believe that all three will remain with the Eagles going into next season and in fact the signing of Edwards may prove a theory that Philadelphia is trying to find a way to get in position to draft a QB – which would likely require a blockbuster trade.

Michael Vick is obviously a given, and Howie Roseman indicated to the media at the NFL Combine that Kafka and Edwards will compete for the backup role. It is entirely reasonable to ponder that the Eagles would likely add another veteran quarterback before training camp starts up in about five months.

Considering Edwards couldn’t make an NFL roster last season, he had every reason to take this deal with the Eagles. No one is handing Edwards or Kafka the keys to Philadelphia’s dynamic offense just yet. Kafka has been a bit of an enigma as we should find out what the team really thinks of him this offseason. Andy Reid, Marty Mornhinweg and Howie Roseman have consistently talked up Kafka since they drafted him in the fourth round in 2010 (much as Kevin Kolb has been touted after being a second round 2007 draft find). If Kafka earns the role as Vick’s backup over Edwards, we’ll know they truly believe what they’ve been saying.

Once free agency starts (March 13), the Eagles would be free to make another addition with a wide array of options. No one knows whether or not Peyton Manning may be available but it would be more likely Philadelphia would be targeting from a talent pool of Matt Flynn, Kyle Orton, Jason Campbell and, ironically Donovan McNabb. Several other veterans could become available as teams tweak their rosters due to salary structure and draft results.

As others have noted, perhaps it doesn’t make sense to draft a potential franchise QB with Andy Reid facing an uncertain future and so many glaring needs on defense. Reid’s contract will be up after 2012 and by then the Eagles will be either celebrating their first Super Bowl trophy (1948 and 1960 NFL Championships) or reinventing themselves at the hand of a new regime.

Best to keep major changes to a minimum and make one more run with the talent available. Spending all of that money on Cullen Jenkins, Nnamdi Asomugha and Michael Vick last season was an investment in a championship – but that also came while wasting money on Vince Young, Ronnie Brown and a revamped coaching staff. Perhaps the Asante Samuel, LeSean McCoy and DeSean Jackson contract situations will determine a course of action based solely on finances?

Certainly the Eagles are expecting Reid to have some degree of success next season and trading up to grab talent like Robert Griffin III or Andrew Luck in the Top 5 would mean trading serious talent. It would also mean that Vick would have to be part of any deal to bring back either of those draft prospects or a free agent like Peyton Manning. Those scenarios are far less likely.

If the Eagles do draft a quarterback they expect to make the roster, and Edwards wins the backup job, Kafka could be the odd man out. If they sign another free agent quarterback to back up Vick (and don’t draft one), it probably makes sense to continue to develop Kafka and part ways with Edwards. The Edwards signing carries no risk but also minimal reward. If it indicates the team’s plans moving forward that plan is not evident to this writer. I see a number of very unlikely possibilities with negligible chance of success:

1. Eagles trade Vick, draft picks and Asante Samuel to Indianapolis in exchange for the rights to the first pick in the draft, taking Andrew Luck in the process.
2. Eagles trade Vick, draft picks and Asante Samuel to Indianapolis in exchange for the rights to Peyton Manning, accepting his $28 M roster bonus in the process.
3. Eagles allow Indianapolis to cut Peyton Manning then make a free agent bid for the future Hall of Fame QB, asking Manning to compete with Michael Vick for the starting role. Pending Manning’s health status this could be very high risk or very low risk insurance for a one year Super Bowl run.
4. Eagles assure Vick’s starting job and troll the post-draft waiver wire for veteran QB then allow them to compete with Edwards and Kafka, simply keeping the best of the bunch. This group could include the aforementioned Jason Campbell, Kyle Orton, Donovan McNabb or Rex Grossman. It may also include the likes of any veterans supplanted by draft picks such as Jake Delhomme, Matt Hasselbach, Brady Quinn, Derek Anderson, David Garrard, Charlie Batch, Kellen Clemens, Byron Leftwich or AJ Feeley.

RELATED ARTICLE: http://www.prosportsblogging.com/2012/02/01/peytons-place/

Despite enduring his third neck surgery, Peyton Manning claims that he is not seriously considering retirement. Manning is the face of the Indianapolis Colts (since relocating from Baltimore in 1984) franchise and the reason for the city of Indianapolis hosting Super Bowl XLVI in the stadium that Peyton and Irsay built… and yet… Tom Brady and Eli Manning will square off in the Super Bowl this coming Sunday. Were it not for the most over-hyped, most lucrative marketing and commercial event in the history of evolved mankind, Peyton Manning’s fate would be the lead story.Wait until next week!

Indianapolis Colts Team officials confirmed Tuesday that they had hired Bruce Arians, Manning’s former QB coach (and deposed Pittsburgh Steelers offensive coordinator) to become Colts offensive coordinator as well as Harold Goodwin as offensive line coach. They also fired tight ends coach Ricky Thomas and assistant offensive line coach Ron Prince. This in light of Chuck Pagano (former Baltimore Ravens defensive coordinator) taking the helm as head coach, replacing the deposed Jim Caldwell.

The whirlwind of changes began Jan. 2, the day after the Colts clinched the No. 1 overall draft pick with a league-worst 2-14 record. Jim Irsay has since fired vice chairman Bill Polian, general manager Chris Polian, and dismissed most of Jim Caldwell’s incumbent staff — a series of changes that prompted Peyton Manning to voice his complaints two days after the conference championship games. Two days later, Irsay called Manning a “politician,” fueling a public spat that drew national attention. The two tried to quell that fire but the fallout has continued into this week.

The four-time league MVP hasn’t played in more than a year because of a damaged nerve that caused weakness in his throwing arm. Manning had neck surgery in May, then underwent his third and most invasive neck surgery in 19 months in September. Doctors fused two vertebrae together - a procedure that forced him to miss the Colts entire two-win season.

Since then, there has been rampant speculation about his recovery, the potential risks of a return, whether the Colts will pay Manning a $28 million roster bonus in early March to prevent him from becoming a free agent or whether the soon-to-be 36-year-old might retire. Should that happen, the story would be ended. Manning himself has indicated that he is planning to return to the football field and wants to play in the NFL in 2012 and beyond.

The Indianapolis Colts have not made their plans public but even more rampant speculation surrounds the prospect of retaining the services of Peyton Manning AND drafting heralded Andrew Luck with the first pick in April’s NFL Draft. Thanks to rookie salary restriction revisions under the NFLPA’s new CBA, it is fiscally possible to draft Luck and keep Manning but that $28 million roster bonus seems like a lot of money for a franchise obviously hemorrhaging talent.

Johnny U left the Colts for SD

Peyton Manning a potential free agent? This is a prospect that has at least half the NFL teams drooling over the opportunity and reworking their salary cap to see if it is a realistic possibility. Not since Joe Montana found his way to Kansas City or Warren Moon wound up in Minnesota has a proven, marquee, future Hall of Fame QB been available to the highest bidder.

Manning could have his choice of teams or be traded at $28M

Would Indianapolis really let Manning go for nothing, or would they sign him and trade him for a bounty of draft picks and sorely-needed infusion of talent? This could potentially be either the biggest NFL trade since Herschel Walker or the biggest free agent signing since Kurt Warner. For Indianapolis, signing Manning will cost them $28 million but they could trade him and recoup much of that money as well as a boatload of draft picks and returning players. For teams interested in Peyton Manning’s services, they know there is a March deadline for Manning becoming a free agent. Why would you sit at a poker table holding a good hand and NOT ask your opponents to show you their cards?

No one player is bigger than an NFL team, a truth that is proven with every big contract due to the march of time, the nature of salary escalation, the brevity of the average NFL career and the salary cap. Joe Montana, Dan Marino, Reggie White, Deacon Jones and Walter Payton all had their days in the sun and defined their teams in moments of greatness and defeat. Peyton Manning is the reason there is still a Colts franchise in Indianapolis, is the reason Lukoil Stadium is hosting the Super Bowl and has been the most important player on offense, defense or special teams for those Indianapolis Colts since being drafted in 1998.

How different would the course of this franchise have been had the Colts chosen Ryan Leaf and allowed Peyton Manning to be taken by San Diego? Would Archie Manning have nixed Peyton’s signing with the Bolts as he did for Eli Manning years later? John Elway spurned the Baltimore Colts in 1983 which many say was the final nail in the coffin for the same franchise. Might Peyton have wound up with the Jets or Baltimore Ravens – or might he have been the impetus for a franchise relocating to Los Angeles in begin the new millennium?

Now at age 36, Peyton Manning could have his pick of NFL opportunities. Maybe it is via trade or perhaps it is via free agency. Where would Peyton like to finish his career? Obviously it needs to be a team on the verge of greatness because Peyton has just a handful of seasons left. Rebuilding teams are out of the bidding – or are they? Couldn’t Maestro Manning rejuvenate a moribund franchise? Possibly but without a fortified offensive line and some serious weapons, not even Prince Peyton can conjure a championship out of thin air.

So let’s eliminate destinations such as St. Louis, Cleveland, Minnesota, Tampa Bay, Jacksonville and Carolina. Not only do they have far more needs than one player, most have young, recently drafted QB such as Sam Bradford, Colt McCoy and Cam Newton. Washington (#6 overall pick) and Miami (#8 draft position) have been discussed and an argument could be made for several other teams (Kansas City, Chicago, Seattle, Denver, Arizona, Tennessee). Whether you have a Top 10 draft position or you made the 2011 playoffs, Peyton Manning is someone you want on your team.

Manning and Brady may still square off

The right offense, the right salary structure, the right coaches and the right personnel will be the wildcard factors that will ultimately determine Peyton Manning’s destination. Could Manning co-exist with Mike Shannahan or Pete Carroll? Would Manning be pummeled behind porous offensive lines such as Arizona or Chicago? Would an NFL franchise be foolhardy to restructure their foundation and team composition to accommodate a 36-year-old QB that could be one hit away from forced retirement?

House that Peyton built?

By March we will know what Indianapolis has chosen to do and by April’s Draft we will know much more. Re-sign Manning and try to deal him in order to blow up the team under Andrew Luck, Chuck Pagano and new management? Cut Peyton Manning and move forward? Just as Johnny Unitas was forced to surrender his Baltimore Colts jersey for that of another team, Peyton Manning may have to do the same.

Should he be a Colt, Eagle, Falcon or Cowboy is not the question at hand. Is gambling on Manning worth a $28 million poker chip or cutting one’s losses? Gambling on the NFL is illegal but gambling in the NFL is a way of life.

Retirement? Free agency? Trade? What would your NFL team do?

RELATED ARTICLES:                                                                                                    AFL or USFL II: Electric Boogaloo http://www.prosportsblogging.com/2012/01/22/afl-or-usfl-ii-electric-boogaloo/

NFL Musical Coaches or Symphony of Succession http://www.prosportsblogging.com/2012/01/08/nfl-musical-coaches-or-symphony-of-success/