This is the game you look at, as a fan, and circle as a win. They’re the lowly Dolphins. They haven’t won a game. Their coach is on the hot seat. They just collapsed epically against Tim Tebow! Tim Tebow! How can the Giants possibly lose this game?

Simple

The Giants haven’t played a complete game this year. The offensive-line is still inconsistent. The pass rush is inconsistent. Aaron Ross is inconsistent. They still have warts.

Meanwhile the Dolphins might not be playing well as a team but they have individual players, especially on defense, who are having solid seasons. Cameron Wake is a great pass rusher; Kao Misi and the Dolphins defensive line have played much better football than you probably realize.

If the Giants lose this game it’ll probably look similar to the Seahawks game. A combination of mental mistakes, the Dolphins defense playing stellar and a little bit of bad luck.

Here are the key match-ups for the Dolphins/Giants game:

Giants Vs. The Bye Week

The new CBA changed rules about team contact during the bye week (a team now must give four consecutive days off to its players during a bye.) The bye week was always looked at as a positive. It was time for the players to get healthy and get on the same page. The coaches, and players, could study film for two weeks to devise a game plan for a specific opponent.

It’s too early to make a definitive ruling but the teams coming off a bye last week didn’t look particularly great. The Browns, at home, barely beat an injury riddled Seahawks team. The Chargers lost to the Jets and looked particularly befuddled when it came to timing and game management. The Titans got decimated by the Texans at home.

Will this crop of bye week teams, Giants included, show the same kind of rust?

Cameron Wake/Misi Vs. The Giants O-Line

As alluded to earlier the Dolphins defense is better then you think. Wake and rookie Misi have graded out well, with Wake grading out as one of the NFL’s best pass rushers by Pro-football Focus’s grades.

Meanwhile the Giants offensive line has been inconsistent at best. David Diehl, returning to guard this year, has had a particularly nightmarish season.

Prediction: Giants make their fare share of mistakes but are simply too talented a defense to allow the Dolphins to pull away. Giants win ugly.  20-6

Is there a tougher division in football to figure out then the NFC East?  The 4-2 Giants sit atop the standings without ever playing a complete football game all season.  Below them are the 3-2 Redskins
who are contemplating a QB change.  Rounding out the division are the 2-3 Cowboys and 2-4 Eagles who might have more talent on their teams then half of the NFL.

Of course the good news for the injury ridden Giants is they have a bye week this week and it couldn’t have come at a better time.  Chris Snee should be back following the bye as should Brandon Jacobs, Justin Tuck and Prince Amukamara.  Maybe the reason the Giants haven’t played a complete game this season is they haven’t had a complete starting lineup all season.

What went right vs Buffalo:

1)  Eli Manning

Although Eli didn’t find the end zone through the air he had a stellar game.  Going 21/32 for 293 yards and most importantly no interceptions.  He spread the ball around nicely finding Jake Ballard
and Mario Manningham five times each.  Hakeem Nicks had another big game falling just short of 100 yards.

2) Bradshaw and the O-Line

Bradshaw had his best game of the season crossing the 100 yard mark and scoring 3 touchdowns. What’s more impressive is this came with right guard Chris Snee missing the game.  You would like to see Bradshaw improve upon his yards per carry (4.1) but this game was definitely a step in the right direction.

3) Corey Webster

Webster has always been a physical bump and run corner lacking top end make up speed.  Luckily for him Ryan Fitzpatrick had trouble throwing a deep ball this game.  Fitzpatrick under threw two passes that allowed Webster to make critical interceptions to stop drives.

4) Pass Rush

Jason Pierre-Paul had another sack and now finds him self amongst the league leaders.  Not bad for a guy who isn’t an every down player. Umenyiora and Mathias Kiwanuka added sacks as well, the Giants finished with three as a team.

Going Forward:

The Giants are 4-2 playing mediocre football and getting some good luck.  There is reason to believe they will be significantly better after the bye.  It gives Cruz, Manningham, Nicks and Ballard another week to get on the same page with Eli Manning.  It gives the offensive line, finally healthy, another week to gel as a unit.  It gives Perry Fewell another week to create defensive schemes and fix what isn’t working.  Most notably the return of Prince Amukamara and Justin Tuck should noticeably impact the Giants defense. Aaron Ross will slide back into a nickel back role, a role that much better suits him.  Meanwhile the Giants have yet to play a game with all their big pass rushers (Osi, JPP, Tuck, Kiwi) at full strength.  We’ve yet to see the “Cerberus” defensive line package.  That’s a defensive line that will give offensive coordinators fits.

Coming out of bye the Giants get, what should be a very winnable game against Miami.  The best is yet to come from this Giants team.

Do you believe in trap games? I don’t. I don’t believe that sometimes teams just fall asleep and lose to a team that shouldn’t have any chance to beat them. The concept of “trap games” is a nice story but, more often then not if a team loses a game it wasn’t suppose to there was a reason.

Please don’t say the Giants are in a trap game situation this week.

This Giants team is playing great football but they are far from perfect. They’ve had issues running the ball and in the secondary. Returning from a concussion Mario Manningham looked totally lost (and was benched) against the Cardinals and defensive MVP Justin Tuck will miss this game with a neck and groin injury.

Meanwhile the Seahawks are better then you think. Tarvaris Jackson has been far from the absolute train wreck many expected. Coming back from injury Sidney Rice reminded us just how good he. It also might shock you to find out that the Seahawks have the fifth best run defense in the NFL (by Football Outsiders DAVE metric.)

If the Giants lose don’t call it a trap game.

Here are the key matchups for Sunday’s Seahawks/Giants game:

Eli Manning, Hakeem Nicks, Mario Manningham…Do Work

While the Seahawks run defense is better then advertised their pass defense might be worse. Ranked 30th by the same DAVE metric. Brandon Browner has been getting picked on all season and the Seahawks might be without number one corner Marcus Trufant who is questionable this week. If there’s ever a game for Mario Manningham to get right this is it.

So Tarvaris Jackson, Sidney Rice and Cory Webster Walk Into A Bar…

As alluded to in the introduction T-Jax has been sneaky efficient this year. He’s got an 80 QB rating and completing 60% of his passes. Last Sunday, against an Atlanta team many thought was super bowl caliber entering this season, he completed 66% percent of his passed for 319 yards (QB rating of 96.3) Jackson just got his best offensive play maker back in the form of Sidney Rice. In just two games Rice has 11 catches for 188 yards and one TD.

With Aaron Ross likely guarding Doug Baldwin (with Mike Williams out for the game) Webster will draw the responsibility of stopping Rice. The Giants have been middle of the pack against #1 receivers this year allowing 84 yards per game.

Aaron Curry Where Have You Gone?

Aaron Curry was the 4th pick of the 2009 NFL Draft. Linebackers don’t usually go that high but Curry was labeled as a “can’t miss prospect.” The truth is can’t miss prospects don’t exist. Curry has gone from potential pro-bowler to high priced back up. Yikes.

Prediction

Sidney Rice makes a few highlight reel plays, the Giants are unable to run the ball but Manningham, Cruz and Nicks all come up big. Giants win a close game and people talk about how they were looking past the Seahawks.

Giants 23 Seahawks 20

At a pivotal moment in the game Victor Cruz lost his footing, fell and assuming he had been touched or tackled got up without the ball. Whistles blew and the play was blown dead. Replays clearly indicated that Cruz broke a tackle, regained his balance and then fell forward on his own accord. By the untrained eye it should have been a fumble, but of course the NFL rulebook often defies logic. In what has become a very controversial call the referee ruled that Cruz “gave himself up” therefore the play was over (giving yourself up is not a reviewable play.) By the rulebook you can argue the referee made the right call. Giving yourself up is not clearly defined by the two measures we often associate with it; either taking a knee (think kick off returns) or sliding feet first (think a QB on the run.) The subjectivity of this rule has become the games story line and that’s unfortunate.

While the Cardinals caught a bad break it’s important to note that the referee’s decision didn’t force them to give up a go ahead touchdown. While the blown call was a turning point, it’s not fair to ignore Arizona’s defensive struggles, or Manning and Nicks’ ability in the process.

What Went Right?

Manning to Nicks

Hakeem Nicks was having a great game before the final play but, with 10 catches for 164 yards there’s no doubt Manning and his favorite receiver are on the same page. What Nicks lacks in height his makes up for in his ability to time jumps and pluck the ball out of mid air. Manning also had another great game going 27/40 with two touchdowns and no interceptions.

Cruuuzzzzzzzzzz

Outside of his bone headed play the past two weeks Cruz has emerged as the third receiving option the Giants so desperately needed. Emerging similarly to Mario Manningham last year, Cruz caught 6 passes for 98 yards.

What Went Wrong?

Justin Tuck

Is it crazy to say that outside of Eli Manning no one on the Giants may be more valuable than Justin Tuck? The Giants defense struggled mightily in games Tuck missed (against the Redskins and Cardinals) but looked great in games he played (against the Rams and Eagles.) In this game Jason Pierre-Paul had trouble adjusting to the left side of the defensive line in Tucks absence. Umeniyoria had two sacks in a strong return to the lineup. When this Giants defensive line is full healthy it’s going to be impressive to see the havoc they can create.

Beanie Man

The Giants defense also missed Tuck in run defense. Beanie Wells rushed for 139 yards (averaging 5.1 a carry) and three touchdowns. He barreled over many Giants in the process and looked like a vintage Brandon Jacobs clone.

Run Blocking

The Giants offensive line still failed to provide running lanes for Bradhsaw and Jacobs. Bradshaw averaged 3.1 a carry and Jacobs 2.0. This is something that needs to improve as the Giants go forward. Center David Baas left with a neck injury during the game and did not return. He is considered day to day.

Looking Forward:

The Giants get the Seahawks at home. The Seahawks are always competitive at home but are dismal on the road. The Giants should win this one with ease.

The Giants are finally getting healthy. The Giants are finally coming together as a team. And everyone who wrote off the Giants based on Eli Manning’s preseason are starting to look very foolish. The Giants stomped the Eagles last week and this week travel to Arizona to take on a Cardinals team they match up very well against.

With the Giants finally being favored to win a game how will they respond? Here are the key matchups for Sunday’s Eagles/Giants game:

Fun With Fancy Stats

How much have the Giants improved since the preseason? By Football Outsiders metrics the Giants are currently the 6th best team in football (7th on offensive efficiency, 9th on defensive efficiency.) Where the Giants have struggled is against number two receivers (also known as whoever Aaron Ross is guarding) and tight ends (also known as whoever Antrelle Rolle is guarding.)

Luckily for the Giants the Cardinals don’t have an elite tight end or second receiver in the passing game. With Webster likely being glued to Fitzgerald all day, Ross will have to contend with Andre Roberts. Roberts has been dismal this season as the defacto number two receiver. The combination of Jeff King and Todd Heap have had nice moments this season but, they certainly aren’t the seam splitting type of tight end that the Giants have struggled against.

Beanie Man

This Cardinals offense does take on a different identity with a healthy Beanie Wells. A statement that was laughable the past few years hasn’t been so much this year. Although he sat out last game with an injury the Beanie Man has seemingly finally figured out how to be a successful NFL running back. He should play and be at nearly 100% this week.

Cerberus

The Giants four headed defensive line monster returns. How will the Giants mix in Pierre-Paul, Tuck, Osi, Kiwanukia and Canty? Having too many pass rushers is certainly never a bad thing. Look for Tuck and Osi to be on a snap count to keep them fresh and injury free.

Prediction:

Giants shut down Fitzgerald, hit Kevin Kolb a ton and emerge victorious.

Giants 21 – Cardinals 13

Not all wins are created equally.  There are blowout wins, comeback wins, close wins, lucky wins, divisional wins and playoff wins.  Some games, and they way in which you win them, sometimes just mean more. For the Giants their 29 to16 thumping of the Eagles had a little bit of everything.  It was a statement game for the Giants.  They beat a divisional opponent, on the road as an underdog.  For the Giants almost everything went right this game.  It doesn’t erase it but this week will help the Giants, and their fans, get the taste of Matt Dodge and DeSean Jackson out of their mouths.

What Went Right?

Hit Vick

The blueprint is out there.  The best way to contain Vick is to knock him out of the game.  Vick came into the game with a concussion and left it with a right hand injury (non-throwing hand.)  Vick is questionable for next week.

Jason Pierre-Paul had two sacks (fun JPP fact: JPP has nine career sacks and four career two sack games) and while the Giants only recorded two other “official hits” on Vick something tells me the NFL game charters got that one wrong.  Vick was taking a beating all day.

Eli Manning

Time.  The Giants offense just needed time to figure out how to play as a unit.  This is the strongest indication so far that the Giants offense will be a force to be reckoned with by years end.  Eli Manning was 16/23 for 254 yards, four touchdowns, no interceptions and a near perfect (145.7) QB rating.

Play Calling

Kevin Gilbride can get off the hot seat for one week at least. Gilbride called a near perfect and creative game.  The Giants for the first time had their screen game working.  Bradshaw had five catches for 53 yards and a touchdown.  Jacobs had two catches for 42 yards, including a long TD on a wheel route.  The screen game should be one of the strengths for this Giants team.  Everyone besides Kareem McKenzie on the offensive line is a very athletic lineman.  Pulling and blocking down field is something you will see the Giants offensive line doing very often.  The running game also found it’s rhythm as Ahmad Bradshaw averaged 5.8 yards a carry.  Another bright spot for the Giants, Victor Cruz (stepping up for the injured Mario Manningham) caught three passes for 110 yards and two touchdowns.

What Went Wrong?

Shady, Aftermath

LeSean McCoy was an absolute monster.  Running behind a patchwork offensive line McCoy rushed for 128 yards (on 24 attempts averaging 5.3 per carry) and a touchdown. The Giants plan was to clearly blitz and bring pressure however they were very susceptible to McCoy’s cut back ability and displayed very poor fundamental tackling skills at several points during the game.

Looking Forward:

The Giants go on the road next week to meet the 1-2 Arizona Cardinals in a game they will be favored to win.

The Giants go on the road this week to take on the self proclaimed “dream team”, the Philadelphia Eagles. One week I’ll be able to start these previews without talking about injuries, but, it won’t be this week. Another ACL was claimed by whatever deity the Giants seemingly made angry this off season as Dominick Hixon tore his and is done for the year. Mario Manningham is also listed as doubtful this week with a concussion. That means the Giants top receivers are going to be Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz, Brandon Stokley and some combination of Devin Thomas and newly signed Michael Clayton. Yikes.

For the Eagles the big injury question is; will Vick play? The answer right now is yes. Although he is formally listed as questionable Vick has practiced the past two days and is looking like a go for Sunday.

Speaking of Michael Vick here are the key matchups for Sunday’s Eagles/Giants game:

Stop Michael Vick.

Remember those “Mike Vick experience” commercials when he was in Atlanta. The funny thing was he often didn’t do that on the field when he was in Atlanta. Vick didn’t really blossom as a passer until his first year under Andy Reid in Philadelphia. On top of his physical abilities as a runner he can really throw the ball with accuracy both short and down the field.

The Giants last year provided a recipe to stop, or contain, Vick. Hit him, hard, early and often. The Rams did this with some success in week one, the Falcons did this in week two (knocking him out of the game) and the Giants will surely do this in week three. Even if Vick throws a bomb make him pay for it. It will be interesting to see if the Giants can knock an already banged up Vick out of the game.

Run The Ball

The Giants need to be able to run the ball this week. With their limited reserves at receivers running out, Bradshaw and Jacobs will be relied on this week to carry the offense.

Prediction:

Giants injuries catch up with them. Nicks, Cruz and Stokely get shut down by Namdi, Samuel and DRC. The Giants can’t get the running game going and Mike Vick makes Aaron Ross look silly five times.

Eagles 27 Giants 10

A great pass rush can mask a whole lot of your deficiencies. Last week the Giants had a good pass rush but it wasn’t enough to make up for their lifeless secondary. This week Justin Tuck and the rest of the line brought the thunder and had Sam Bradford running for his life.

Yes, the Giants did get lucky early on in this game. And yes, it’s clear the Giants still have a ton of work to do. However, last time I checked an ugly win still counts as a win.

What Went Right?

Luck

Sometimes it’s better to be lucky then good. Early in the game a muffed punt return cost the Rams, as well a backwards lateral that no one on the Rams considered picking up. In total the Rams fumbled four times and lost two.

Justin Tuck

What a difference one player can make. The Giants pass rush looked absolutely fearsome. Justin Tuck finished with 1.5 sacks and 3 QB hits. Sam Bradford was sacked twice, hit nine times and was under constant pressure. Imagine when Osi gets back.

Hakeem Nicks/Domenik Hixon

Nicks is a beast, plain and simple. Nicks caught a pass (that won’t show up in the stat sheet as the Giants took defensive pass interference instead) on the sideline that he absolutely had no business catching. He also bailed out Eli on a big touch down reception by plucking the ball out of mid-air. It always amazes me how strong his hands are and how easy he makes attacking the ball look. Hixon stepped up after a vanishing act last week. Hixon caught two passes for 29 yards, including one circus catch touchdown.

Figuring It Out

One thing is clear is that the Giants were hurt by the lockout. This is a team gelling on the fly. As the game went on Eli seemed more comfortable making audibles and the receivers and offensive line seemed more comfortable adjusting to them. It’s a work in progress but there are signs of progress.

What Went Wrong

Injuries, Still.

On top of the already documented injury list Mario Manningham left the game with a concussion and Hixon with a knee injury. Neither returned to the game. As of the now the Giants healthy wide outs consist of Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz and Brandon Stokely.

Run Game

The Giants ran more but their 33 carries were in large part a byproduct of being up for most of the game. The Giants averaged 3.1 yards per carry as a team. Bradshaw and Jacobs split carries evenly. While it’s concerning to see the Giants not getting more push it is a good sign that Jacobs is finally running with a lower pad level and using his size more effectively.

Aaron Ross Is Awful

This is pretty self explanatory…moving on.

Looking Forward

The Giants take on Michael Vick or Mike Kafka. Either way expect the Giants to bring the pressure constantly. If the Giants offense of the second half shows up they have a shot to win.

Jake Shields Vs. Jake Ellenberger

Jake Shields is a favorite in this fight, and he probably deserves to be. However, no one should discredit Jake Ellenberger’s chances on winning.

Despite being 4-1 in the UFC (24-5 overall) Ellenberger is somehow underrated. His only loss came to current welterweight championship contender Carlos Condit, in a fight Ellenberger narrowly lost. In the fight vs. Condit Ellenberger, who came in on short notice, rocked Condit twice in the first round and landed 59% of his significant strikes. Condit came back to win as Ellenberger ran out of gas in the later rounds.

Ellenberger is a very effective wrestler. He lands on average (per 15 minutes) 4.17 take downs at a success rate of 74%. Defensively he defends 89% percent of take downs attempted against him.

Ellenberger’s hands have been improving in every fight. As mentioned he knocked Condit down twice, he also battered John Howard at UFC Live 1, and knocked out Sean Pierson at UFC 129 on 17 days notice.

Shields is one of the best pound for pound fighters in the world. Fighting in multiple weight divisions for Strikeforce Shields racked up wins over names like Dan Henderson, Jason Miller, Robbie Lawler and Paul Daley. However, his UFC run has not been as impressive. Shields looked uninspired against Martin Kampman in his UFC debut, winning a narrow split decision.

Where Shields falters in his career is his take down defense. Shields only stops 36% of the take downs attempted against him. However where Shields has a big advantage is the submission game. Shields attempts 1.71 submissions per 15 minutes.

Ellenberger should be able to dictate where this fight takes place. If he feels like he can out strike Shields he can keep it standing. If it becomes dangerous on the feet he can try his luck with Shields on the ground.

For this reason I like Ellenberger in this fight. Look for him to out strike Shields on the feet and Shields to have no answer besides attempting to pull guard.

Prediction: Ellenberger by Decision.

All Stats come from the awesome FightMetric.com

Other Fighters to Watch:

Alan Belcher

Belcher makes a long awaited return to the cage after taking 16 months off due to eye problems. Belcher is above average in every facet of the game and his big advantages over his opponent, Jason McDonald, when it comes to size, strength and speed. Look for a successful return to the cage for Belcher assuming he doesn’t have any lasting vision troubles.

Evan Dunham

Dunham was once the hottest prospect in the division. With solid wrestling, above average striking (featuring crisp combos and great footwork) and great cardio Dunham found himself one or two fights from a championship fight. Then things went sour quickly. Dunham lost a razor thin decision to Sean Sherk (that many thought he won) and got knocked out by Melvin Guillard in highlight reel fashion. Look for Dunham to rebound as he outclasses the over matched Shamar Bailey in every aspect imaginable.

Matt Riddle

Riddle has grow up in the octagon. In fact all of his seven professional fights (5-2) have come in the UFC cage. Riddle’s wrestling ability makes him a threat to any opponent and help him maintain prospect status. Expect him to win an unremarkable decision.

Jorge Lopez

Lopez (11-1) a Wand fight team member, is making his UFC debut. Expect him to show of his striking as he a fighter that Wanderlei Silva thinks very highly of.

The Rams visit Met-Life Stadium to take on the Giants in a game that should be played in flags instead of pads. We’ve already detailed the comical amount of injuries to the Giants (to that list you can add Justin Tuck and Hakeem Nicks) meanwhile the Rams haven’t fared much better. In the season opener they lost Steven Jackson (questionable for this week) Danny Amendola (for an unspecified period of time) Ron Bartell (out for the year with two neck fractures) Jason Smith (listed as day to day) and just for good measure Sam Bradford left the game with a finger injury.

Moving out of the infirmary and on to the field here are the key matchups for Monday’s Rams/Giants game:

Wait, We Can Cover These Guys?

The Giants secondary was abysmal against the Redskins. This week they face a much tougher test in emerging star quarterback Sam Bradford. Expect Bradford to pass early and often as the Rams look to exploit Aaron Ross and the Giants secondary.

The cure for an awful secondary is a great pass rush and Justin Tuck may just be the key player in this game. If he plays the Giants should be able to successfully rush the passer giving the secondary a big boost. The Giants would also benefit from the absence of Rams starting right tackle Jason Smith. Smith is an athletic pass blocker who would matchup well against athletic freak Jason Pierre-Paul. Pierre-Paul would likely abuse back up tackle Adam Goldberg.

Slot Machine

Both teams have issues with one of the more underrated positions in football, the slot receiver. After getting no production out of Dominick Hixon and Victor Cruz the Giants signed veteran Brandon Stokley (and in a sign of desperation worked out T.J. Houshmandzadeh.) While certainly past his prime Stokley has proved he can still be productive. In 11 games with the Seahawks last year Stokley caught 31 passes. Stokley should be able to produce immediately, and will help provide Manning the security blanket he lost when Steve Smith and Kevin Boss left town.

For the Rams, Amendola was becoming Brandon Stokely 2.0. In Amendola’s absence Mike Sims-Walker will play the role of slot receiver. While the Rams proclaim Sims-Walker able to handle the slot, he’s more Victor Cruz then he is Brandon Stokley and we all saw how well that worked out.

Look In A Mirror

These two teams might be each others doppelgangers. Both are injury riddled, both have slot receiver issues and both run very similar defensive schemes. Watch out for Chris Long in this game. The former number two overall pick broke out last season with 8.5 sacks. He also led the NFL in hurries in with 41.5 and in total quarterback disruptions with 67.5. Will Beatty, Kareem McKenzie and the entire Giants offensive line are going to need to perform much better this week.

Prediction:

Manning and Nicks have big games against the poor Rams secondary…Justin Tuck sacks Bradford a lot and Aaron Ross only blows two major coverages.

Giants 23 Rams 17