In the midst of all the turmoil that is the NFL right now I choose to stick my head in the sand and still get excited about the upcoming draft. And if the Chargers run on the field come August for pre-season football, it will be with the benefits of having the second-most picks in the first three rounds, only being outdone by the pick-hoarding Patriots. They will no doubt trade some away again this year in order to get better picks next year. They kind of remind me of that neighborhood boy who was annoyingly good with his money and way too frugal; always trading with over-eager youngsters and stocking their piggy bank. But who cares about the dark side represntitives of the NFL? We are here to talk Chargers draft strategy.

In my prior post regarding the draft, I discussed the possibility of the first pick being a 3-4 defensive end, and while I consider that the best course of action, there is no telling what the always unpredictable A.J. Smith will do with the pick. We have seen him trade up with out giving it a second thought, and there have been occurrences of trading down in recent history. We have seen the Chargers decide based on need with their first round pick like last year, and we have seen them simply go with the best available. So without being able to predict whether they will trade up or down and having already looked at their biggest need, let’s look at who will most likely be the best available.

The consistent view among scouts of the top players numbers 10-20 go as followed.

The first thing that jumps off that board is the obvious: Cam Newton won’t be there at pick 18, nor would we want a QB anywhere near the first round. The first player on that list who instantly jump out to me as a “best player available” possibility for the Chargers is at number 11 Tyron Smith the OT out of USC. Smith could be a great improvement over our current RT Jermey Cleary and, if still available, could easily be considered the “best available player’. However, I have a sneaking suspicion that he will be someone who rises up the boards in the weeks preceding the draft. The other obvious one is Julio Jones, the WR out of Alabama, but that would most definitely be too good to be true; and I don’t forsee that happening. There are a few really good corner backs who are not included in this list, but other teams would really have to be drafting based on necessity in order for the likes of Prince Amukamara out of Nebraska to fall to us. The last player on my list that also falls under the “too good to be true” category is Robert Quinn, the trouble DE from Chapel hill. In my mind, he is a player who could have easily been vying for the number one selection had he not been suspended and missed all of last year.

So here’s to sticking your head in the sand and getting a little to excited for April 28th .

When I first heard the news that the Chargers were getting Bob Sanders, my thoughts instantly were of a dynamic force in the Chargers secondary of Eric Weddle and Sanders dominating the opposition. While that is more than a  possibility, and will be the case if everything continues to line up, now being 24 hours removed from the news I have come back to earth a bit.

The news first is that the Chargers are finishing up a deal with former Colts strong safety Bob Sanders, who has been a dynamic force in the past when healthy. Only three years removed from being the defensive player of the year, Sanders is by no means past his prime age, having just turned 30. No, the question with him has always been that of health concerns. While he is incredibly tough while “on”, he has not always been able to display that; missing now more than half of his career being on the IR. In fact if you add it up, he has played the equivalent of 4 years in the league meaning he does not have the normal wear and tear of a 30 year old. By comparison Brian Dawkins is 36 years old and was very serviceable up until last season, and he has played every minute of his career.

The other thing that could possibly stand in the way of the Weddle/ Sanders duo is the fact that Weddle is a free agent. He has stated that he wants to come back to the team  if the offer is not insulting, even going as far as to say that he would be willing to take a little less to stay in San Diego. The problem is you can never guess what is in the mind of the mob boss that is the Chargers GM, A.J. Smith. It was rumored at the NFL combine that up to four or five GM’s have displayed interest in Weddle. Should he become available, upwards of four or five teams would jump at the chance to enlist his services. It is estimated that Weddle will be looking for and getting offers of 5-6 years at a little less than 7 million a year. As far as this Chargers fan is concerned, he is worth every penny.

So here’s to hoping that it all falls in line and the Chargers end up with one of the toughest and the most feared secondaries in all of the NFL. We know this: it frees them up in the draft; so that they can address the front of the defense. Who knows; if they hit on a stellar defensive end, or an outside linebacker who can get in the back field, then we might see one of the greatest defenses this city has ever known.

Let me be honest with you, one of my biggest guilty pleasures is the NFL Draft. To say that I love it would be a drastic understatement. This time of year I eat, drink and breath draft coverage. I don’t know what it is- whether it is the possiblity of snagging that sure thing in the first round like Ndamukong Suh last year, or hitting on an un-drafted player like the Packers did with corner back Sam Shields. I love everything about it, I even love what my wife considers one of the most boring things ever put on TV, the NFL combine.  If I am being this honest I might as well tell you that I even keep a notebook, categorized by positions and I rank each player, since I don’t get to go see the players with my own two eyes, I simply read everything written about them by the helmet head on ESPN’s website and anything else I can find. Then, a week before the draft I throw out all their rankings and come up with my own. That said, I really really love the draft.

Now onto the Chargers and their draft needs. In past years we have had the luxury of being able to say that we have no real needs and with that, the assumed strategy has been to go with the most talented player on the board, rather than drafting for “needs”. Well that has not exactly worked out. And so now as we come to this year’s draft, to some extent you can say that we don’t really have any needs, you know, real holes, and yet at the same time we kind of need one of everything. From our strongest position to our weakest they can all either use an improvement or a young back up just in case. Even at T.E. where we have one of the greatest to ever suit up at the position, as much as it pains me to say it, he is a bit of a glass man. Don’t get me wrong he is as tough as anyone and will play through the pain but it seems like every year there is a considerable amount of pain to play through.

And so where are the biggest areas for improvement? I would start by saying at the defensive end, while Jacques Cesaire is not a complete liability, he is starting to seem as wimpy as his French name would lead you to believe. He has been serviceable and yet has been no where near a play maker or a game changer. With the defensive end position in a 3-4 you typically either want another defensive tackle who is going to eat up blockers or a guy who is a bit more explosive and can occasionally get to the QB. With Jacques Ceaire you kind of have a guy that can do both and neither at the same time.

Therefore, I would say that the Defensive end spot is our biggest need. There are some great options coming out of the draft and yet there are really only two that I would consider being worth the first round pick and both are named Cameron. The one that I like more because of his upside is Cameron Heyward out of Ohio State, he is 6’5 278 lbs and can definitely wreak some havoc. The two big concerns with him are: whether or not he can give a consistent effort throughout the game, and whether or not there will be any more off the field issues. That said, I think at this point he would be my first choice. The other is Cameron Jordan out of Cal who is listed at almost the exact same size only about a half inch shorter. The truth is that he is higher on most peoples’ boards; but my guess is that it is only because of the two concerns that I listed above about Heyward. Jordan is a great player too. I would not consider him quite as much of a play maker as the other Cameron but in my opinion he still would be a good choice for the position.

If you look at the charts there are some other guys who are listed as early first round possible defensive ends but they are more of a 4-3 end or a 3-4 outside line backer, which might be our second biggest area for improvement.  I think that is enough for today, I will hit on that next time.

The Padres will only go as far as their pitching will take them.  So will the Padres pitching staff be able to match their efforts from the year prior?  The only reason the Padres were a team above .500 last year was in large part due to the strong and unexpected season from Mat Latos, along with the consistent outings from Garland and Richard.  Although the padres used their deep bull-pen to bring in some talent in the off-season, I do believe they will not loose beat and continue to be a dominating group.  The best bull-pen in baseball for that matter.  The core is still intact with Bell, Adamsand Gregerson.  Along with Thatcher who can get out any lefty and Qualls who struggled last year but has had some good years in the past. 

Where the Padres surprisingly have a big question mark is in a couple of spots in the starting rotation.  Mat Latos is a young star, he has very dominating stuff and is a 23 year old beast at 6’6″ 225.  I’m really excited to have this kid as the ace of the staff for hopefully many years to come.  For now my big concern is how we all saw him break down at the end of the season.  The Padres really babied him along throughout the season with missing starts and limited pitch counts, and he still ran out of juice.  Which makes me wonder is it really a good tactic to baby a pitcher who should be able to handle the work load.  Clayton Richard is good and getting better, a very solid guy in the middle of the rotation.  Another obvious concern in the rotation is who is going to pick up the 200 innings and 14 wins that Jon Garland contributed last season.  200 innings is a big number and I don’t think people realize just how important Jon Garland was to the Padres last year.  I have always liked Garland and was happy to see the Padres sign him a year ago, but I was still surprised to see what how he performed for us last year.  I just don’t know if Aaron Harang will be able to do the same.  He is also a guy who I have liked over the years but I think 200 innings and 14 wins out of the “Harangatang” wouldbe very wishful thinking.  If healthy for a full season, Harang will be another great signing for Hoyer.  I would plug Stauffer into the rotation in the four spot hope he can build on last season.  He showed a lot down the stretch last year and I really think he will be the key player for the Padres in 2011.  If the Padres can get out of Stauffer what they were hoping to get out of Correia last year (180 I.P. and double digit wins) it could make or break the season.  Finally the fifth spot in the rotation.  Who will be the Pads fifth starter in 2011;Luebke, LeBlanc or Moseley?  The answer is no one, or all of the above.  What the Padres have done over the past few years is have a revolving door in the fifth spot and over the season have guys moving in and out based on who has the hot hand.  I like Luebke, he has good stuff and I think the kid should get a chance to get the fifth start to start the season.  I don’t know much about Moseley, I only saw him pitch a few times in New York.  I do like the idea of a guy coming from the A.L. and a hitters ball park over to pitcher friendly Petco, that is always a confidence boost.  I would put LeBlanc in long relief and only use him in the starting rotation if someone were to go down with an injury. 

Starting Rotation Prediction-  1. Mat Latos  2. Clayton Richard  3. Aaron Harang  4. Tim Stauffer  5. Moseley

Since the Aztecs received their first loss of the season at BYU, they have rebound and played quit well of late.  The Aztecs have now won four straight games in conference play, including a 56-54 thriller at CSU, in a very good game against a good team.  D.J. Gay made a jumper with 1.6 seconds left on the clock, which sealed the deal for the Aztecs.  If the Aztecs want to go far in the NCAA tourney, Gay will need to make a couple more clutch shots like that in the near future.  Leornard is the Aztecs best player but, when it is time to put the ball in a players hands and have him create his own shot, the Aztecs will need to turn to their senior point guard D.J. Gay.  The one thing the Aztecs may lack on this great team is a true scorer.  They play great defense and share the ball well on offense, using many different weapons.  So when a game is close and we need a big shot, I think it will come down to Gay making it happen, or not. 

In a true thumping against Utah last night, the Aztecs sent the Utes off to the Pac-10 in good fashion.  This was the last game the Aztecs will play against Utah in the MWC.  The Aztecs played a flawless game, with a season high 50 rebounds and only 4 turnovers to Utah’s 15.  The best part about the game last night is, that in a blowout us fans got a glimpse into the future of Aztec bball.  Freshman guard Jamaal Franklin looks like an absolute stud, with an all around game.  He will be very fun to watch.  Also Freshman point guard LaBradford Franklin looks like he will be a great passer and a leader on this team in the future, continuing the great point guard play at SDSU in the past years of  Williams, Gay, and now Franklin.  With Rahon and Tapely coming back and surely some transfers wanting to come to SDSU, the future is bright in San Diego.  I’m sure after this great run the Aztecs have had so far they will have many options of players to come in next year.  Surely the Aztecs will be able to get almost any Junior College player they want and probably a very nice freshman class will role in.  If Kawhi Leornard decides to stick around, which he won’t, but he should.  The sky would be the limit for this team next year.  

Next up for the Aztecs on the schedule is four tough Conference games.  They will be at UNLV, home against New Mexico, at Air Force, and then home against BYU in the showdown of the year.

 The Aztecs have relied on coming out strong in the second half of their games many times this year, to either come from behind and win or put teams away down the stretch with a huge second half run.  This was not the case for the number four ranked Aztecs yesterday.  In the biggest game of the year, when they needed it the most and  after a strong performance in the first half the boys failed to close the game out.  The Aztecs looked tired and drained.  Something that is easy to have happen when playing in Provo and against Jimmer Fredette.  In every big game this year Malcom Thomas has shown up and played a large role for the team.  He has really been the key player in a lot of the big wins like against St. Mary’s, Gonzaga and Cal.  Thomas did not have his best game on Wednesday, he was 4-11 shooting and missed some easy buckets around the hoop.  Not to put it all on Thomas the glue that holds the team together in D.J. Gay had his worst game of the year going 0-7 from the field and scoring just two points.  All around the team did not play well in the second half, Kawhi Leornard (who looked fatigued most of the game) had six turnovers and Billy White missed two key free throws down the stretch that sealed the loss.  The good news is that the SDSU Aztecs get a second shot at the Cougars this year and it will be at home and I will be expecting a different outcome.  Also a possible third matchup in the Conference tournament would be another great game that people would love to get a chance see. 

Being a 6’2″ white boy myself, I can really marvel at the game Jimmer Fredette has.  He is like J.J. Reddick with a cross over and a left hand.  This guy is really good.  The Aztecs did a great job disrupting him early and often and the guy still put up 43 points.  The only way Fredette gets stopped is if he has an off night shooting, for whatever reason.  He is super quick, he can knock down a 35 footer and he makes every free throw.  Lets hope he has an off night next time.

With the Padres shipping off all-star first baseman Adrian Gonzalez this off-season, it brings up the question.  Can the Padres offense really be more productive after loosing the best player we have seen since Tony Gwynn?  So much of the Padres offensive production has come from Adrian Gonzalez over the past few years that it is scary to think how the Padres will score runs without him, or is it.  I believe that the Padres offense, in a strange way will improve with the departure of the left handed slugger.  I don’t know if I can say the same about the defense and loosing his gold glove, but I’m not worried about the amount of runs this team will be able to score in 2011.

I don’t think any San Diego fan wanted to see Gonzalez go and nor did I.  Although the way I look at it (always in a positive way).  The Padres offense may really benefit from the absence of Gonzalez in the middle of the line-up.  In previous seasons the Padres relied on Gonzalez way to much to carry the offense and the team for the matter.  Sometimes teams can fall into this way of relying on one player and not performing as well as individuals.  We saw time and time again the offense went as Adrian Gonzalez went.  When he was in a slump the whole team was in a slump.  Also it was easy for teams to game plan against the Padres they would just give Gonzalez a free pass and let the other guys try to beat them.  It really made it hard for Gonzalez to be clutch, when every big situation came up teams would just pitch around him.  I think the offense will score more runs this season with the speed and the numerous additions that will contribute more than one player, even as high of a caliber as Gonzalez, could provide.  Adding three quality bats like Hudson, Bartlett, and Hawpe is not something that Padres fans are accustomed to seeing in the off-season, and I love it.  Also I can’t wait to see what Maybin can do, it may be frustrating at times with the young talented outfielder, but he could really be a perfect fit in Petco. 

My projected line-up; 1. Maybin  2. Hudson  3. Headley  4. Ludwick  5. Hawpe  6. Bartlett  7. Venable  8. Hundley.  With Headley and Venable being interchangeable as the season goes along. With left and right handed match-ups. Or play Denorfia over Venable against LHP.

As the Chargers play their last game of the season, it will be their first meaningless game of the season.  I have already heard some Chargers fan say; “We might as well loose this game and get a better draft pick.”  The fact of the matter is, the team wants to play well and win every game.  They are professionals and they prepare hard every week to try and win every game.  A franchise installs a winning attitude into these players and they don’t know how to do anything else, and that is a good thing.  If teams stopped trying to win games the second after their playoff hopes end, teams like the Raiders would stop trying half way through the season every year.  Also, the one game differential in record would only change a teams pick by one or two in draft order, and that would not be a good enough reason to not care if your team were to win or loose on Sunday.  When it comes to things like this the best case scenario is what the Chargers had a few years back. Where they finished 8-8 and won a playoff game against the Colts, later loosing to the Super Bowl Champion Steelers.  Finishing 8-8, winning a playoff game, and having the 16th overall pick  to select Larry English, is something that will probably never happen for a team again.(Unless the Seahawks or Rams win a playoff game this year)

As for the game on Sunday there is not a lot to say.  The Chargers have been struggling with injuries all year, so any player that comes into the game with a nagging injury that they have been playing through, will probably not suit up.  As for the Broncos it is all about the future right now.  Tim Tebow is getting a chance to prove himself and it will be interesting to see what he can do against our Chargers defense.  Personally I liked Tebow as and NFL QB coming out of College, unlike most of the experts.  I don’t think he will be a hall of famer or anything, just a solid QB that gives his team a good chance to win.  He reminds me of Mark Brunell, and he was a pretty good pro.  Only time will tell to see if the Broncos wasted a first round draft pick on the talented QB out of Florida.

Every year the Chargers play and they don’t end it with a super bowl victory,  I think to myself that it was another lost opportunity and another lost season.  Every year, I expect the Chargers to make the playoffs, win some playoff games, and hopefully make it to the Super Bowl.  This year that will not happen as the Chargers were officially eliminated from playoff contention on Sunday.  The easy thing for a Charger fan like me to say right now is, there is always next year.  Fortunately for us as a Chargers fan we can really say that and mean it, because the Chargers have proven lately they are a very competitive franchise year end and year out.  Also any team that has Philip Rivers at QB would feel confident they could win it all at any time.  Frankly I’m getting a little tired of saying that.  I thought this year was the perfect opportunity for the Chargers to get their Super Bowl victory.  As no team has looked all that great to me this year, the Chargers could have beaten any and everyone.  If the Chargers would have gotten on the same page as a team early in the season, and avoided a few key injuries, they could have really made some noise this year.  The defense that showed up most of the weeks was the best defense we have had since Donnie Edwards was let go.  Our defense was the caliber of defense our team needed to win a Super Bowl along with the offense.  This season really comes down to inconsistent play on both sides of the ball.  I can’t figure out if the O-line needs to make some changes or not but, sometimes they look down right awful.  Also on defense, one week we can shut down a team entirely and another week we get torched by average teams like the Raiders and Bengals.  All in all if your team looses to the Seahawks, Rams, Bengals, and Raiders twice!  They don’t deserve to make it into the playoffs.  Every team in the AFC is very happy today as they will get to play the Chiefs instead of the Chargers in the playoffs as the representative of the AFC West.

There is a lot to look forward to next year.  Although it was a hard game to watch this week, there is two very good things I took away from it.  First thing is I can’t wait to see what Ryan Mathews can do in a full season when healthy and with one year under his belt.  Mathews had his first chance to get a good amount of action after the horrible injury to Tolbert.  Mathews had only 55 yards rushing on the day but on only 12 carries for an impressive 4.6 yards per carry.  Mathews had some runs this year that I don’t see any other back in the league make.  He has the ability to make every run a positive one and stays on his feet moving forward at all times.  Mathews right now doesn’t look like he has the vision like L.T. did with the ability to break off the 30 or 40 yard runs, but the thing I like about Mathews is if you give him the ball 20 times you can count on him to give you 100 yards.  Which is exactly what the Chargers passing offense needs from the running game.  The other thing I really liked to see in the game and all season long is our new pro bowl worthy nose tackle Antonio Garay.  He gives the Chargers a load to block upfront and can single handily stop the run at points in a game.  Benson a solid back that has ran for over 1,000 yards the past two seasons and he was held to 52 yards rushing and a 2.2 avg. this week, in large part to Garay.    

All of us Chargers fans will most certainly have one eye on the Chargers game this week and the other eye on the Chiefs and Titans game.  I am in the finals of my fantasy football league and I need another big performance from Chris Johnson this week, so we can all go ahead and Cheer for him to run all over the Chiefs.  This is one of those times of year when everything is all so enjoyable.  We have the holidays to celebrate and playoff football right around the corner.  Again all I want for Christmas this year is for the Chargers to make the playoffs and make a run at the Super Bowl.  Santa has come through on this Christmas wish for five out of the last six years.  If the Chargers were to win the AFC West this year, they would tie the Raiders for most division titles all time at 15.( If they don’t they will have to wait til next year) 

The match-up between the Chargers and Bengals was taken off of prime time Sunday night football.  Mostly because the 3-11 Bengals have been so poor this year and have not lived up to expectations.  Along with the Chargers, as well not playing the caliber of football they are used to at 8-6 this year.  I guess that the Micheal Vick and Brett Favre media dream was just to much to pass up on, winning over the reality show drama queens in T.O. and Chad I won’t call him Ochocinco Johnson.  Now we can all listen to Chris Collinsworth talk more about dogs, cell phone pic’s, and Brett Favres retirement, more then the football game itself. 

According to the weatherman(my iphone) the Chargers and Bengals will be playing in snow at 28 degrees.  The Chargers are obviously not used to this kind of weather but, I do recall the Chargers playing well in the past under these conditions.  Mostly under Marty ball.  With the weather being what it is, this game will be heavily decided on the running games of these two teams.  As for the Bengals every game is like this because they are very poor at throwing the ball.  With T.O. out and Chad Johnson a shell of his old self, the Chargers can make it a one sided offensive attack for the Bengals.  On the other side the Chargers, even under poor weather conditions could still toss the pigskin around a little.  Look for one or two big plays to come out of the passing game and break this game open for the Bolts.  I like the Chargers in the trenches over the Bengals, along with our run defense being a lot more stout.  If a some what clean game is played by the Chargers it could be a blow out, with a lot of the Tolbert -Mathews combo.  Note that news has come out that Antonio Gates will most likely miss the rest of the regular season.

Weekly Prediction-   Chargers  24     Bengals  7

Season Prediction-   Chargers   10-6