How many ideas are so ridiculous that contemplating them can make ones head explode?

I know of one: the idea that the Houston Astros would trade anyone with talent and tenure.

I've been saying for a while that the Astros need to blow the roster up and start over. The farm pipeline is pretty barren, they aren't winning on the field, and the roster is in shambles. In the past few days the name Roy Oswalt has been floated as a possible trade candidate.

Roy Oswalt has even commented that he would likely not accept a deal to the AL.

Who cares? I'm here to squash this rumor right now. Drayton McLane will simply not move Roy Oswalt. Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee can be lumped on that list too. That isn't how the Astros operate. They find talent and cling to it. The premise isn't necessarily a bad one, but they tend to do it to a fault.

When you are in a funk like the Astros things need to change. The organization that uses Brian Moehler, Mike Hampton, and Russ Ortiz as patchwork starters in a failed faux playoff attempt isn't about to dump one of the best starting pitchers in baseball mid-season. I'd bet anything I own on it.

So can we please stop talking about Oswalt?

Derek Hollands electric first career start looked to be on cruise control for a while. The Astros decided it would be a good idea to go down 5-0, but the Rangers young left hander hung a changeup to Lance Berkman in the 5th with 2 men on that he deposited in the Gulf of Mexico to make it 5-3. He was fearless though. He knew what he needed to throw, but he didn't execute.

Here is the problem though. The Astros pitchers do one thing over and over…they pitch down. I'm not arguing against the practice of pitching down or down and away. What I'm arguing is that you have to be able to do SOMETHING else. Derek Holland was making his first career start and he was pitching. He trusts his defense and his stuff. He made his pitches. The Astros didn't.

I should have charted the pitches from the bullpen, but I didn't think about it. All I know is that when Paulino left the game I remember 2 pitches that got up. The first was a Jarrod Saltalamacchia homer. The second was Nelson Cruz's game winning blast, which I called as soon as I saw the pitch. 

The Rangers offense hasn't been that great thus far this year. I know you don't want to put the ball in someones wheelhouse, but you have to pitch inside a little. Mike Young smashes balls to the opposite field. Josh Hamilton is hitting .240. Do I even need to point out that Hamilton is a lefty and they were giving him plenty of shots to hit opposite field homers to a shallow Minute Maid left field wall? He damn near dropped one over the wall too. Elvis Andrus and Ian Kinsler will run you to death when you put them on base. You have to have some guts to win games. Pitching away from contact is what has made the Rangers pitching terrible for almost 40 years. The Astros appear to want to replicate that futility.

If the Astros want to rechart the course of this season it's going to start with a new approach. Pitch to contact.

Well it's mid-May and the Astros are improving. With a 6-4 record in the past 10 they're having trouble making up ground though. The competition is stiff in the NL Central. The Brew Crew, Cardinals, Cubs, and Reds are al performing admirably. Even the Pirates are near .500.

The fact that the Astros are even sniffing .500 is simply amazing. The main hero has to be Wandy Rodriguez at this point. The Astros may have hit on a late bloomer here, and if they have they have only god to thank.

Wandy was pretty solid last year, but his peripheral stats didn't suggest a legit pitcher. In 2009 Wandy has really stepped it up. He has a 1.90 era in 52 IP, and a dominant K/BB ratio of 48:15. Yes folks, thats 3:1. The 37 hits allowed are pretty steady as well.

The Astros are still sub-.500 at home, Roy Oswalt still has a 4.50 era, and Lance Berkman is still slumping. The fact that they're only 2 games under .500 is simply magical. Things should even out some over the next couple of months, but they play in a pretty tough division so anything can happen. If it does, Wandy will be involved.

We're approaching the middle of May, and Roy Oswalt just picked up his first win of 2009. What is more remarkable is that the Astros are still, STILL, only 5.5 GB of first place. After picking up the sweep of the Buccos, who have lost a sparkling 8 games in a row, the 'Stros are finally gaining some momentum.

The downside to this is undoubtedly the injury to Berkman. It apparently isn't serious enough to warrant a DL trip, but Berkman has missed the past few games regardless. This little delay might be just what Lance needs. He's still stuck in his season long funk, but maybe a little break will help clear his head.

Things are looking up folks. The Astros have won 3 in a row, but are still under .500 at home. That won't last. Things will even out and the 'Stros could still have that solid season we all expected.

“Our big horses have got to hit. If they don't hit, the wagon don't move!”

That's a weird way to put it Cecil Cooper, but the point is legit. If the Astros hitters don't begin to hit the team must acquit. I think I said the same thing a few days ago. Cooper must be reading.

Lo and behold the Astros did win today. Lance Berkman, keeping his .200 batting average in tact, managed to hit a homer.

If you didn't watch the game and are concerned….RELAX. Roy Oswalt didn't get hurt. He left the game after the first because of the rain delay. The Astros should be able to shuffle up the rotation a bit to get him in a game soon. Otherwise we may foolishly be waiting 4 days to see him again.

Tomorrow the Astros finish their series with the Braves when they face off with Jo Jo Reyes then its off to Washington. Theoretically they should beat Washington….but the Astros are rolling out Brian Moehler and Russ Ortiz.

God only knows what is going to happen.

Now I realize the season is still young, but the Astros are sitting in the cellar of the NL Central.

Yes, behind the Pirates.

Most remarkable though is that they have the 2nd most losses in the major leagues, tied with Cleveland at 11, behind the Nationals.

Why, you may ask, are the Astros in the cellar? I'll give you two numbers: .320, .387. These respectively are the Astros team OBP and SLG. You can't win with singles hitters that have no patience. They don't have nearly enough pitching to make up for it either. They're in the middle of the pack pitching wise which is serviceale. Not good, but serviceable.

For good measure the Astros are also 2nd in the senior circuit in fielding percentage. If Roy Oswalt comes back around they won't finish in the cellar, but without an offensive improvement they'll be looking at a top 10 pick 14 months from now.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4084962

ESPN posted this article earlier. Apparently Lenny Dykstra is a scam artist. This is one of the most amusing articles I've ever read. You're welcome.

We sit here on April 18th, and the Astros are 4-8. Not exactly the start I anticipated, but what can you do? The fact that the team has won 4 games while getting nothing out of Lance Berkman is remarkable enough. So here are a few Astros quick hits for you on an exhausted Sunday evening. 

 *Speaking of Berkman, he's hitting a sparkling .189 on the year with a couple of homers and no stolen bases. I think he'll be alright. Considering how low his average is, his 189/362/405 line is actually pretty respectable. it should be noted though that he is 33 and his home run total has dropped for 3 consecutive years. It may just be coincidental, but it's worth noting.

* Mike Hampton. I just don't know what to say about him. He hasn't been useful since 2004. I don't know how he ever got that truckload of money from the Rockies with his mediocre k rate and WHIP, but thats beside the point. He's thrown 2 more productive starts than I expected already. His seasons worth of production to this point is significantly better than his career production. At 36 and having pitched less than 80 innings every year since 2004 (when he was able to pitch of course) I can't imagine him sustaining this. 

* Felipe “I need to stop calling him Ronny” Paulino might have something. He has a pretty live arm and outdueled 2008 all star Edinson Volquez through 6 innings issuing only 2 walks versus 6 strikeouts. He missed most of 2008, but in 2 starts for AAA Round Rock he was dealing. Keep an eye on him. He's only 25.

The Astros meet up with Bronson Arroyo tomorrow to conclude the series with the Reds then have 3 and 3 versus the Dodgers and Brewers to finish the homestand. I would've said they might want to get on track so Cecil Cooper doesn't get fired, but since they randomly picked up his option that point is moot.  This is a pretty critical week. May brings a lot of road games and some tough home matchups. If they piss this week away they could get burried early. 

I think Jeff Keppinger may have earned himself some playing time.

It took 24 hours for the Astros to find themselves in an extra inning contest in 2009. Ryan Dempster and Wandy Rodriguez both pitched wellm but neither pitcher was able to figure in a decision.

 One pitcher who did was Neal Cotts. Cotts is a serviceable pitcher no doubt, but when its game 2 of the season shouldn't you have your horses out there? How does Carlos Marmol not enter that game to slam the door? It's possible Big Lou was just feeling Cotts out for the long run, and if thats the case I take my comments back. However…we did have an extra long spring training, and the last time I checked a win in April is as good as a win in September.

Whatever. This isn't about stupid moves the Cubs may or may not have made. This is about Jeff Keppinger ripping the Cubs. I've always admired the pinch hitter. That has to be a rough job. It didn't bother Keppinger though. He smashed that pitch and drove in Pudge. I have to think he'll be able to start over Geoff Blum shortly. We shall see.

When we last met the Astros pitching was solid. Not great, but solid. Everything is fine right? Well….

The Lineup

The Astros are lucky they are in the NL Central. In the American League this lineup is laughed at. In the NL East the Mets and Phillies point fingers and laugh. In the NL Central though this lineup gives the Astros a legit shot. If Carlos Lee and Lance Berkman are healthy the Astros will score a few runs. They need the Kaz Matsui and Michael Bourn tandem to get on base though. Matsui should be able to, but Michael Bourn was atrocious last year. If Bourn even sniffs league average this year he can push this lineup to a B+ overall. If Hunter Pence grows as a player he can push it to a B. This lineup isn't hopeless, and its only opening day. They have time to prove naysayers wrong.

Grade: C+

 It isn't a great lineup, but outside of the Cubs which NL Central lineup is significantly better?

The Defense

Of the things wrong with the Astros this is the least fixable. The Astros are tied into contracts with key components of the team that either can't play their position adequately or are named Lance Berkman. Carlos Lee has been a DH for about 3 years. Hunter Pence is iffy in the outfield. Miguel Tejada? What can he possibly have left at short? 2008 was his best year at shortstop ever statistically at 34. What are the chances of him repeating that? Pudge Rodriguez's age doesn't really even need to be mentioned. Kaz Matsui wasn't even particularly good at secondbase either. The Astros have the track record to be average defensively, but they have the age to suggest they will be appreciably below average.

 Grade: D+   Pitching and defense win championships so the Astros are halfway there.

**********

The Astros begin 2009 against the Cubs tonight in what could be an important series come September. For the Astros to contend they need a strong start. The Cubs are built to bury the NL Central in a hurry if the rest of the competition isn't ready. Roy Oswalt faces off with Carlos Zambrano tonight in what should be a great game.

Ryan Dempster squares off with Wandy Rodriguez in game 2 of the series. Both pitchers had impressive 2008 campaigns. Dempster secured a large contract in the offseason so he will be looking to justify the deal while Wandy is still looking to make his place in the baseball world. 2009 is a key season for both pitchers. This should be quite an interesting matchup. Game 3 could get ugly though. The Cubs are throwing Ted Lilly out to fight Brian Moehler. Yeah. I can't imagine Vegas putting a pretty line on that game.

 More importantly though, where will the Astros finish? I think a lot depends on April. If the Astros can hang in there through April they have as good of a shot as anyone. it all starts today though. They simply have to get out of the gate strong and play the Cubs straight up. One series doesn't make your season, but getting swept by the Cubs would set a bad tone for 2009.

1. Cubs 2. Astros 3. Brewers 4. Cardinals 5. Reds 6. Pirates

 I don't think 1-6 will be seperated by more than 15 games. 1-4 might be seperated by 6-7 games. The Astros should be in it for a while, but ultimately I have them falling short of the Wild Card. I'll go with 84 wins.

 Enjoy opening day, and Happy New Year.