Batting .200 Milton Bradley is among many Mariners struggling at the plate.

The Mariners finished their 2010 season on a five game losing streak, good enough for 101 losses and 29 games out of first in the AL West.  While winning their first two games of 2011 was a good start it only helped to set up the disappointment to come.  The Mariners proceeded to lose 11 of their next 13, jumping out of the gate at 4-11.  At that point nothing was going right; to put it simply, they couldn’t hit, and other teams were hitting them (not exactly saber metrics, I know).  The first part, while arguably just as troubling, wasn’t exactly surprising.  The M’s finished last season with offensive stats ranked at the bottom of nearly every category in majors.  Here’s the evidence, I warn those who have weak stomachs to skip ahead to the next paragraph; 513 runs scored, 101 homeruns, an average of .236, and a slugging percentage of .339, all rank dead last in baseball.  However, through the first fifteen games what was surprising was the lack of pitching.

During the horrid thirteen-game streak the Mariners staff gave up an average of six runs per game, with their starters holding a record of 1-10.  That’s an embarrassing start for any staff, but when that staff includes the reigning AL Cy Young winner in Felix Hernandez it’s downright confusing.  What else is staggering is how by May 1^st their pitching stats would now rank right down the middle of the road; an ERA of 3.92 and an Opponent Batting Average of .250 (both rank 17^th in the majors).  As of late the Mariners starting five have stepped up, and kept Seattle hanging on. 

Pineda could be the key

The Mariners haven’t lost a series in their last three, splitting four with Oakland, sweeping three in Detroit, and then taking two of three from the Sox in Boston.  It’s a fairly standard rule that pitching wins games, but never more applicable than this year in Seattle.  In the seven wins they have given up just 1.43 runs per game, as opposed to 5.66 in the 3 losses.  With only five pitchers having started this year the culprits are obvious.  Breakthrough prospect Michael Pineda has lived up to all of the hype boasting a 2.01 ERA with a 4-1 record in his 5 quality starts. Felix has lowered his ERA to 3.21 winning his last couple, and the final three, Erik Bedard, Doug Fister and Jason Vargas have combined to win their last four decisions.  Not to mention Jamey Wright, David Pauley and closer Aaron Laffey all holding down sub-two ERAs in the pen.  The result is, as of May 4^th, the M’s sits just two games out in the AL West.

Felix can't do it alone

What have we learned?  When the starters flirt with perfection Seattle will win games, this has been proven.  They also have the ability, as a staff, to put together long stretches of quality starts, but does anyone believe Seattle can be real contenders? No, not really, they simply can’t hit.  They didn’t hit last year, they aren’t hitting yet this year and they won’t hit in the future.  Quite frankly some of the numbers are inflated due to Ichiro being one of the best hitters in the past decade, not to mention he may only be in Seattle until the Marines get the right offer for his services.  That being said, the Mariners can stick around and prove me wrong, but if they do it will be for one reason; pitching.  Top to bottom, one through five, long relievers to closer and back again, the staff is going to have to be nearly perfect, calling upon the numbers that have given them 8 wins in their last 11.

  Rockies Report: Anything but a Rocky Start, but Will it Last?     

Heading into the last day of April the Colorado Rockies sit four games ahead of second place in the NL West; The division which boasts the defending World Series Champion Giants.  The Rockies, at 16-8, are a half a game shy of the best record in the majors (behind the Phillies and Indians).  All of this with their MVP candidate Carlos Gonzalez batting .216 with just a single Homerun and their breakout Ace, Ubaldo Jimenez, sporting a 6.75 ERA in just 3 starts.  Once the Rocks get back to full strength they should be practically unstoppable, right?    

Jorge De La Rosa leads Colorado's staff with a 4-0 record

The Rocks jumped out to a quick start in the National League proving that they are a team that should be taken seriously.  But how good is their start?  Let’s break it down.  Taking 4 of 4 from the lowly Mets,  4-1 against the already under 500 Cubs,  a 2 game sweep over a chaotic Dodgers organization, 3-2 against the worst professional team in North America (Pirates), and a 1-1 split versus the D-Back who win about as much lately as Mark Grace does during their version of the Sausage Race.  The two series the Rockies lost were against the defending champion Giants and the red hot Marlins.  I’m not beating up on Colorado; you have to play who is on your  schedule.  I get it!  But let’s just be pessimist for a second.  Cargo and Ubaldo aren’t exactly the models for proven consistency.  If and when they get going someone else will fall into a slump, that’s baseball.  And is their starting pitching deep enough to  make a run when/if they win the division?  So far that’s the good news with De La Rosa starting 4-0 and Chacin holding a sub-three ERA.  Whether it can be sustained throughout a run into and through the playoff has yet to be proven.   

If there is one thing fans love about April baseball it’s getting to project the way all of the numbers will play out, and which trends with hold up.  With some it is easier than others; Chipper will get hurt and hover around .300, that’s a given, Mariano Rivera hasn’t lost the cut fastball yet, obviously, and Ozzie Guillen will be reprimanded by MLB.  It’s a matter of trusting what you know until you are proven wrong.  The hard part is believing that all of the parts will fall into the right places and form something you know can exist but hasn’t quite yet, that’s the 2011 Colorado Rockies.    

After all coming into the season you would be hard pressed to find a more interesting team than Colorado.  One of the most exciting pitchers in the National League,    

CarGo is off to a rough start batting just .216

Ubaldo Jimenez; one of the best hitters at a position where there is no offense, Troy Tulowitzki; and a breakout multi-tooled threat, Carlos Gonzalez.  The one problem with potential is it inevitable comes with inexperience.  As optimists we like to think these youngsters can only benifit from their early success,  but with expectations inevitably brings pressure, and exposure.  Baseball at its core is a game of streaks and adjustments.  This can work as an advantage to a nieve young hitter, but as we have seen from CarGo this year, it can also work against a upstart batter.  As pitchers learn the holes in a slugger’s swing, the effects can snowball all the way below the Mendoza Line.  I’m not suggesting panic is the way to go, but by lowering the ceiling we set may help to take some of the sting out of “sophomore” slumps.  

All things considered it’s better to be atop the division after April than playing from behind.  Seth Smith and Jonathan Herrera are off to better starts than you would have expected.  Seriously, who had the money line on Jonathan Herrera leading the team in OBP? Not me.  And Huston Street with 9 saves, none blown, and a WHIP touching 1.00!  Not bad either.  It was only last October when Cody Ross, aging Edgar Renteria, and a hint of a “Rage Against the Machine” version of 2010 Brad Lidge, lead their team to a World Series.  Role players are essential for a late run in October, but the Rockies need their superstars to get them there.  The Rockies are feeling comfortable were they are but the expectation have been lifted beyond a nice April.  After all the Rockies are an early postseason exit away from becoming the Capitals or Mavs; a regular season scoring machine that doesn’t translate to the postseason.  Nobody remembers a 16-8 start if your studs don’t begin to lift your team to the next level.