The Bulldogs have advanced to the national title game for the second year in a row by virtue of their 70-62 win over VCU on Saturday night. Their opponent will be the Connecticut Huskies, and the high scoring guards of Kemba Walker and Jeremy Lamb. It will be a game of the “all American All-American’s” against the McDonald’s All-Americans. Butler came out on the losing side in last year’s title game by a matter of inches, and they are looking to change things this time around.

UCONN will present many interesting matchups for Butler. Butler will rotate 5 guards in and out of the lineup, while most likely only using 3 big men. Lamb and Walker rarely leave the floor for UCONN. This could be a key factor in the game. Brad Stevens will have the ability to keep having relatively fresh guards to defend Lamb and Walker. UCONN began to show some tired legs in the game against Kentucky, however I don’t think that will be an issue tonight as all the kids know they have 40 minutes left in their season, win or lose.

 It will be interesting to see how Coach Calhoun and his staff decide to defend Matt Howard. He has a very favorable matchup as he will be able to post up early and then bring the immobile UCONN big men out on the perimeter for pick and pops or rolls to the basket.

 Another interesting matchup will be whether Shelvin Mack and Kemba Walker end up guarding each other. I expect both coaches will want to avoid that to make sure each is fresh at the offensive end of the floor. You should expect Walker to see a lot of Vanzant and defensive stopper Ronald Nored.

 Keys to the Game

 Rebounding: UCONN definitely has a size advantage and should win the rebounding margin off that alone. But their big men aren’t as hungry as Butler’s. So if Butler can stay within 4 rebounds or win that battle it could prove to be huge.

 Foul Trouble: Matt Howard and Shelvin Mack have to avoid foul trouble. Howard got caught in the last game doing a little too much reaching. He has to play a smart game.

 Bench Scoring: Ronald Nored, Zach Hahn and Khyle Marshall have to provide points off the bench. Or create more opportunities through rebounds and steals.

 Prediction:

 It is very hard to pick against Kemba Walker. He has brought this young UCONN team together and they are on a roll. However Kentucky’s defense caused problems for the Huskies, and Butler plays better D than the Wildcats did. Nored will stay in front of Kemba most of the night limiting his penetration.

 Butler 64 UCONN 60

This year’s NCAA tournament has produced two of the more memorable runs in NCAA tournament history. One of the runs will be coming to an end on Saturday in Houston as the two teams who are on the run will face off. The Butler Bulldogs will battle the VCU Rams in an effort to get back to the title game for the second year in a row.

I have followed both of these teams closely throughout the year and I can say Butler’s run doesn’t really surprise me. In late January, early February it would have. But as the month of February progressed you could see the team finally find themselves and create an identity for this year’s team. It all started on the defensive end of the floor as the Bulldogs returned to the 5 guys play as 1 mentality that got them to the Final Four last year.

Led by NBA prospects Matt Howard and Shelvin Mack, the Bulldogs enter the Final Four with by far the most tournament experience. Ronald Nored and Shawn Vanzant play in your face, lock-down defense and are able to do the little things on the offensive end. Vanzant especially can knock down the occasional 3 and knows how to get to the rim. Andrew Smith and Kyle Marshall man the paint for Butler, and like most of the team they do those little things like getting to loose balls and boxing out which has allowed Butler to outrebound teams that you figured they’d have no shot against. Zach Hahn, Chase Stigall, Crishawn Hopkins, and Garrett Butcher round out the group that will likely see playing time this weekend.

While I wasn’t surprised about Butler making their run, I was definitely surprised about VCU. They struggled down the stretch in CAA league play. A league that doesn’t get nearly enough credit. But in the CAA tournament semifinal against George Mason you saw a switch temporarily go on. Just like they have done in the NCAA tournament, they shot the 3 extremely well, created turnovers and got key post presence out of Jamie Skeen. However as quick as that switch went on against George Mason, it went off the following day when the Rams lost to Old Dominion in the CAA title game.

What caused the switch to go off against ODU? And why has no team so far in the tournament been able to replicate ODU’s effort against VCU? The reason ODU created problems for VCU is because they play that zone defense that is extremely long at the top. It makes getting open looks at 3 pointers very hard for the Rams. And open 3’s is the key to their success. Florida St had the length and toughness on defense to give VCU issues. The problem for the Noles was they didn’t have enough at the other end.

Keys to the Game

Tempo: which team will be able to control the tempo? VCU is going to want to use their full court pressure to try and create turnovers. If Butler handles it how they did against Wisconsin in the final minutes they could be in trouble. Butler will want to slow the game down, and methodically run their offense. On defense, Butler will be in your face.

Ball screens: Butler and VCU traditionally hedge the high ball screen. However with the ability to shoot the 3 that both Matt Howard and Jamie Skeen possess, it will be interesting to see how Brad Stevens and Shaka Smart adjust or if they just play it how they have all season. You might see both teams trap on the high ball screen rather than just hedge it to make the pick-and-pop pass more difficult for the smaller guards.

3 Point Defense: Butler defends the 3 point line better than any team VCU has faced all season. The Rams are unlikely to get as many open looks as they have. Butler takes open 3’s in the rhythm of their offense and VCU’s defense can fall asleep at times. For most teams defense dictates offense, but for VCU it is their offense that dictates how their defense performs.

Prediction:

I have seen a lot of people picking the Rams this week, however I will not be one of them. People expect a close game, but in the end I think the experience Butler has from last year’s run and their ability to defend the 3 point line will allow them to create a comfortable winning margin.

Butler 68 VCU 58

The Butler Bulldogs have done it again. The third time was the charm for the Bulldogs as they beat the Florida Gators on Saturday 74-71 in OT, to advance to the Final Four in Houston next Saturday.  It is a remarkable achievement for the little school in Indianapolis. To do it one time was astonishing. So to do it in back to back seasons after losing their best player to the NBA and two seniors to graduation makes the moment even more unfathomable.

For the first 30 minutes of the game against Florida, the Bulldogs were getting beat up in every way possible. The Gators were abusing Butler inside, were making their foul shots and getting the bounces. Then inexplicably with Butler down 11 with a little over 9 minutes remaining everything began to change.

The loose bulls were no longer 50/50 balls, they were 100% Butler. It all started when Coach Stevens put seldom used guard Chrishawn Hopkins into the game. In the 4 minutes he played, he made a key assist on a Howard basket and followed that up with a huge 3 pointer which began to give all the momentum to Butler. Then Khyle Marshall started to feed off of the energy and picked up a couple of his 7 offensive rebounds down the stretch. Every loose ball and key play was going Butler’s way.

As they continued their comeback they found themselves down by 1 with about 35 seconds to play and they had the ball sideline out of bounds. In typical Butler fashion they called a play that would go to their senior and MVP Matt Howard. Howard took the ball and went right to the basket, he missed the shot but was fouled. He made the first to tie it at 60, but missed the second. Florida failed to score on its final attempt of regulation so we were headed to OT. Through four tournament games, Matt Howard has had the final points in regulation time in each game for the Bulldogs.

In OT, Butler’s hard work, will and ability to get to all the loose balls were the difference. Ronald Nored continued to shut down the Florida guards in OT and added 4 critical free throws. But a huge Shelvin Mack 3 pointer gave the Bulldogs the lead for good with 1:20 remaining. He added two free throws for the 74-71 Butler victory.

If you looked at the stat line for the game, one would wonder how Butler won this game. They did not shoot the ball well at all, they committed double digit turnovers, shot the ball from the foul line poorly until the final 3 minutes of regulation and in OT. Everything looks like Florida should have won the game. But you can’t keep stats on hard work, heart and will. Those key intangibles would not allow Butler to lose the game and are sending this group to the Final Four in Houston, where they will face the VCU Rams out of the CAA.

Final Four Schedule:

Butler vs. VCU at 6:09                                  

UCONN vs. Kentucky at 8:49

The Butler Bulldogs and Florida Gators have battled in the NCAA Tournament two times since in the last 11 years. The first came in 2000, when Mike Miller hit a runner in the lane at the buzzer to give the Gators a victory. The second time game during the Gators title run in 2007, as the Bulldogs gave them their toughest test of the tournament but just didn’t have enough down the stretch. Now here we are in 2011, and this version of the Butler Bulldogs is hoping this third matchup will end differently. But why should it?

I’ll be honest, the Florida Gators did little to impress me all season long. I thought the SEC was fairly weak, but here they are in the Elite 8. They have plenty of height and depth in the front court, with Chandler Parson and Alex Tyus leading the way. Their backcourt is quite the opposite, while the starters Erving Walker and Kenny Boynton lead the way, yet there is not much beyond them.

In Florida’s first three games of the tournament, they haven’t really faced a defense as good as Butler. Florida’s guards have been able to get into the paint and dish it off to a big or kick it out for the 3. Something tells me that Nored, Vanzant and Mack will not be letting this happen. They have too much pride at the defensive end of the floor to let that happen. How will Florida make adjustments to this? Or how will Butler adjust to it if Florida’s guards are successful?

Butler comes into the Florida game after handling Wisconsin with relative ease, minus the last 5 minutes of the game. The big question mark will be whether Sophomore Andrew Smith is ready to play. He sprained his ankle on Thursday night and was held out of practice on Friday. Coach Stevens expects that Smith will be ready to go. Even if he is, Kyle Marshall better be ready to play a few more minutes than normal because they will need him to keep Smith and Howard fresh down the stretch.

The one area I think Butler can exploit is the size of their guards versus the mini mites of Florida. If I were Brad Stevens I’d try to get Mack and Vanzant to post up some early and have Howard be out along the 3 point line for the inside-out play.

I had Butler getting this far in my own bracket before the tournament. I had them losing to BYU. Something tells me they might be happy that Florida won. Both these teams have played very well the last two weekends and it is unfortunate that one of their seasons will be coming to an end around 645 this evening. But that is essentially the beauty of March Madness, one of these teams will be heading to Houston in just a couple of days.

Keys to the Game

Butler’s front court staying out of foul trouble, Matt Howard has to be able to play the majority of the game. Much like the game against Pitt, Butler must minimize their turnovers and force double digit turnovers from the Gators.

Prediction

Butler 66 Florida 63

The Butler Bulldogs continued their successful tournament run last night as they dismantled the Wisconsin Badgers and won by a final of 61-54. Just like the first two games, the final points of the game were scored by Matt Howard, who clinched the game with an offensive rebound off a Shelvin Mack miss.

 The final score doesn’t indicate the damage Butler did. They smothered Wisconsin from the opening tip. Their tight defense forced Wisconsin into poor decisions with the basketball, forcing the Badgers to more turnovers in the first half than their season average.  The Bulldogs pressure took the life out of the Wisconsin players and their fan base.

 Matt Howard finished with 20 points and 12 rebounds to lead the Bulldogs. Shawn Vanzant jumped out of the gate quickly helping Butler build its lead, but only finished with 10 points. The Bulldogs had a 9 point lead at half, and quickly turned it into a 20 point game in the first 10 minutes of the second half.  The Badgers made a late push with a full court pressure D, but the Bulldogs managed to hold on.

 Two things which were impressive about the Bulldogs victory, they won the game and didn’t shoot the ball well from 3 point range or from the foul line. And their defense was just unbelievable, holding the Badgers to 30% from the field and forcing double digit turnovers.

 Next up for Butler is the second seeded Florida Gators. Butler will clearly be the best defense Florida has faced all tournament long, and they will also be the most patient offensive team the Gators have played.  It will be interesting to see how Andrew Smith is feeling, after suffering what appeared to be a sprained ankle. He did return to the game last night but definitely looked as if he was a step slow and in some pain. Hopefully for the Bulldogs his ankle doesn’t get too swollen and he is able to go on Saturday with a chance at back to back Final Four’s on the line.

 I will be back tomorrow with a full preview of the Elite 8 matchup. I have basically been spot on with my previes for the first 3 games, here is hoping I can do it again.

The Butler Bulldogs and Wisconsin Badgers are set to battle on Thursday night to see who will have a chance to play over the weekend for a chance at the Final Four.  These teams are almost mirror images of each other. They both get in your face and defend, they have an inside out presence, shoot the ball well from 3 point land and the foul line and don’t turn the ball over. All signs are pointing to a game that will go down to the wire, but will it?

Wisconsin’s top two players, Jon Leuer and Jordan Taylor, average 18.7 and 18.0 ppg respectively. Jordan Taylor is one of the most dynamic guards in the country. He shoots 85% from the foul line, 43% from the 3 point line and has a 4:1 assist to turnover ratio. Leuer is your typical Midwestern big man. He has solid post moves but doesn’t wow you with his athleticism.

Butler enters the game after their two dramatic games the first weekend. Matt Howard and Shelvin Mack are playing at a very high level. Ronal Nored has been a great defender through the first two games and will be asked to shut down Jordan Taylor. Right now Butler appears to be on the same role they were last season at the same time where everything seemed to break their way. Now as the sweet 16 is on the Horizon they are set to face yet another team that plays a similar style to them.

Down the stretch this season every time Wisconsin put two solid offensive performances together, the game following them has not been very pretty. Some they have still managed to win; others they have not. That doesn’t seem to be a good sign as they are set to play a team that currently has a great defensive rhythm.

For Butler they need to try to go inside early and get Andrew Smith and Matt Howard going in the post. This will make things easier for their guards to get off shots from the outside. Defensively they have to stop Jordan Taylor, not only from scoring but from having the ball in his hands. They need to force the offense to start with someone else.

Keys to the Game

The two keys for the game will be getting Andrew Smith to put up more than 10 points and to limit Wisconsin to less than 12 free throws made.

Prediction

Butler 63 Wisconsin 54

On Saturday in Washington, DC, the Butler Bulldogs and Pittsburgh Panthers played in one of the most memorable games in NCAA Tournament history.  The game was played at such a high level by both teams, Butler shot 46% from the field, hit 12 3 pointers, shot 78% from the foul line and only turned the ball over 6 times. While Pittsburgh shot 57% from the field, hit 6 3 pointers and outrebounded Butler by 10.

Butler came out in the first half and jumped out to an early double digit lead as Shelvin Mack and Matt Howard were on fire early. Pitt began to chip away and cut it to 8 at halftime behind a great game from Gilbert Brown, who finished with 24 points.

The second half had the Verizon Center crowd going crazy. There were ups and downs for both fan bases. Pitt came all the way back to take the lead, and then Butler fought back and reclaimed the lead. Shelvin Mack who started the game hot, hit clutch shot after clutch shot in the 2^nd half on his way to 30 points.

The great games by Brown and Mack had the game tied at 67 with just under two minutes to play when Brad Wanamaker was fouled by Andrew Smith as Butler attempted to try and hedge the screen. Wanamaker made both free throws to give the Panthers a lead with 1:58 remaining. On the following Butler possession Andrew Smith was fouled in the paint, but was only able to make 1 shot, so Pitt had the lead 69-68 and that set the stage for one of the wildest endings ever in the NCAA Tournament and probably basketball in general.

Butler missed two chances to take the lead with around 50 seconds to go and the Panthers had the ball with the lead by 1. On Pitt’s next possession they ran a high ball screen like they had done much of the day. However this time instead of just hedging the screen, Butler hedged and then trapped the basketball.  This trap caught Pitt by surprise and no one moved to get open. They finally found the open man, but he released the shot just after the shot clock expired. Butler had the ball back with 9 seconds left down by 1.

The Bulldogs advanced the ball just over half-court and called timeout with 7 seconds remaining. Butler is one of the best teams at scoring out of timeouts. Unsure of what defense Pitt would come out playing, coach Brad Stevens said he called a play that would work against both. The first part to the play he called, a Matt Howard high ball screen, wasn’t there so Vanzant saw an opening and went the other way. As he drove Pitt helped off of Andrew Smith to stop the ball, so Vanzant slid the ball to Andrew Smith for the layup to give the Bulldogs a one point lead with just under 3 seconds left.

That is where the great game should have ended. However the next 2 plus seconds were filled with some basketball stupidity. Pitt had no timeouts remaining so threw the ball down the sideline. Mack went after it and in doing so hipchecked Gilbert Brown out of bounds and was whistled for the foul with 1.4 seconds left.  After the game Mack said of the foul, “It was the dumbest mistake of my life.” Two shots for Brown. He made the first giving the Panthers the tie game. Inexplicably Jamie Dixon left his players on the lane for the second shot. Brown’s second shot rimmed out, and Matt Howard was able to grab the ball as Pitt F, Nasir Robinson came down on top of his arm. The whistle blew.  Moments after the Butler crowd was in stunned shock thinking the game was lost, it was now the fans of the Panthers turn. The foul on Robinson sent Matt Howard to the line for 2 shots.

Two days after the ball left his hand with 0.1 seconds left for the victory over Old Dominion, Howard now stood at the line for 2 shots with 0.8 seconds left. He calmly drained the first, causing the Butler fans to go crazy as victory was all theirs, as long as nothing crazier happened. Butler had all their players off the lane and Howard intentionally missed the second and as Pitt grabbed the rebound time expired.

Butler wins 71-70.

I mentioned they key to the game would be turnovers and Butler won that battle.  This game basically had everything a college basketball fan could want. The ups and downs, the excitement and the Madness that is March. While I was sitting there with the Butler fans celebrating, your heart has to go out to those players from Pitt. They battled hard and played a great game. To see the raw emotion at the end of the game from both teams sums up what playing in the NCAA tournament is all about.

The Bulldogs will take on Wisconsin on Thursday night at 9:57 PM EST in the Southeast Regional from New Orleans, La.

The Butler Bulldogs continued to show the magic touch in the NCAA tournament in their second round game with a 60-58 victory over Old Dominion.  Butler’s team MVP Matt Howard put himself in the right position for a put-back as time expired to give Butler the victory.  As I pointed out the key stat of the game would be how Butler would handle one of the top rebounding teams in the country, and they handled themselves quite well. The Bulldogs ended up outrebounding ODU by a 32-29 margin and will now move on to take on another top rebounding team in Big East power Pittsburgh.

Butler vs Pitt

Pittsburgh comes into the game after taking care of business against UNC-Asheville rather handily.  Ashton Gibbs led the Panthers with 26 points, however Brad Wanamaker was very quiet.  The scouting report on the Panthers focuses on Gibbs and Wannamaker.  They do not have much offensive talent in the paint. Most of their points in the paint will come from offensive rebound put backs.

At the defensive end, Pitt plays a very tight, physical man to man defense.  If the game tonight is called how they were on Thursday afternoon in DC, Pitt could have a lot of players in foul trouble. Pitt needs to not over pressure and expose themselves to back door cuts which Butler will run on you all day if the opportunity presents itself.

Key Stat For the Game

Butler has to keep its turnovers under double digits and force Pitt to commit double digit turnovers.

Prediction:

Much like Butler’s game against Old Dominion I expect a very tight, back and forth game.

Butler 64 Pitt 59

As the NCAA Selection Show unfolded on Sunday night, two of the most successful mid-major programs in the country had yet to be announced with one region remaining.  Then the dreaded 8 verse 9 matchup, in the Southeast region, was announced.  The Butler Bulldogs will take on the Old Dominion Monarchs. 

Both teams enter the NCAA tournament on nine game winning streaks. But both coaches, Butler’s Brad Stevens and ODU’s Blaine Taylor are well aware that those streaks mean nothing now. They know that one of their seasons will be over after the next 40 minutes of basketball.  Blaine Taylor said of the matchup, “It will be a great game, a classic tournament game in that both teams play pretty solid basketball and don’t beat themselves.”

Taylor’s point that both teams “play pretty solid basketball” is a very key point.  These two teams pride themselves on fundamental basketball, team defense, and giving 100% effort every time they are on the floor. This will be a game where basketball is showcased in its purest form and should be one of the best games played on Thursday.

Scouting Report

Butler

Led by Matt Howard, 16.7 ppg and 7.8 rpg, and Shelvin Mack, 15.2 ppg, the Bulldogs have a great 1-2 punch.  Howard has added an outside shot to his great interior play, while Mack has had a solid season and if you look at his season stats, he is due for a big game.

Butler plays a high pressure man to man defense, where all five players play as one. The communication and help side awareness they show is beautiful to watch.

Old Dominion

Much like Butler, ODU has two players that average double digit points. Frank Hassell, one of the most underrated interior players in the country leads the Monarchs with 15.0 ppg and 9.6 rpg. Their other leader is a slashing wing, Kent Bazemore, who averages 12.5 ppg.

ODU tends to rely on a very long 2-3 zone, very similar to that of Syracuse. They are one of the top rebounding teams in the country and do an unbelievable job on the offensive glass creating second chances for themselves.

Keys to the Game

Butler

Matt Howard and Ronald Nored must stay out of foul trouble. If Howard gets into foul trouble this game could get ugly. When Hassell gets the ball in the post, Butler most do its best to double down on him immediately and get it of his hands.  On offense the Bulldogs need to get their x factor, Zach Hahn going early. If he can find his stroke from the outside, that could cause ODU to potentially come out of its zone. For Butler to have the most success against the zone they must attack the gaps and screen Kent Bazemore when he is playing at the top of the zone. This will open up lanes to penetrate as well as create space for shooters to kick the ball out to.

ODU

Offensively they need to feed Hassell the ball early and often. Hassell has to be ready for the double team, as do the ODU shooters Ben Finney and Trian Iliadis. Ball side shooters must slide to the corners and weak-side shooters must slide towards the opposite wing and be ready for the skip pass. Darius James and Bazemore must protect the basketball as Butler will be one of the better defensive teams they have faced all season.

A key stat to watch will be rebounding. ODU is one of the best in the country, but Butler can be sneaky good at getting to loose balls.

Prediction

I think this game will be very close and will most likely come down to the final possessions. In the end I think Butler’s experience from their tournament run last year will pay dividends.

Butler 59 vs. Old Dominion 56

I will be back with a recap of the game on Friday, and a look ahead to the winner’s game against Pittsburgh(most likely).