The 2010 A’s finished 81-81, becoming the first Athletics team since 2006 to not post a losing record. Unfortunately, unlike the 2006 team, they also failed to post a winning record. Though it may not deviate from any other preseason plan, the 2011 A’s face winning expectations they’ve not seen in years.

The 2010 season was plagued by injuries and an anemic offense, using the DL more than any other team in baseball, and finishing 11^th in runs scored. While it may not guarantee a healthy 2011, the A’s did away with Head Athletics Trainer Steve Sayles in place of former Rays Assistant Athletic Trainer, Nick Paparesta. Solutions to the offense required a bit more innovation on behalf of General Manager Billy Beane. Here’s a look at the offseason additions and subtractions taken by the A’s on the offensive side of the game.

This analysis, though not a sure-fire predictor of the future, illustrates a +4.5 WAR – essentially 4 to 5 more wins over the course of the 2010 season using the A’s offensive additions, as opposed to their subtractions. While five more wins would still leave the A’s four games back of the AL Champion Texas Rangers, it speaks volumes to the improvement of the team that took place in the offseason in simply one aspect: offense.

Josh WIllingham is one piece to the A's revamped offense.

Another area of improvement that received attention this winter, albeit attention often coming in the form of raised eyebrows, happened to be the bullpen additions, most notably RHP Grant Balfour and LHP Brian Fuentes. The interesting part of these signings, while most people (including Billy Beane himself) make the claim that the A’s plucked the two relievers off the open market because they had money to spare, is that the A’s finished 6^th in bullpen ERA in 2010, despite have the best team ERA in the AL. Although there is little room for improvement on behalf of the starters, the bullpen was merely “above-average” in comparison to the rest of the league. The additions of Balfour and Fuentes solidify the bullpen, as well as strengthen the entire pitching staff.

This spring, open spots on the team can be found at the backup-catching position (Powell and Donaldson), the fifth starting pitcher (Cramer, Harden, McCarthy, Outman, and Ross), and the utility infielder (LaRoche, Sogard, Timmons, and Tolleson). In traditional A’s fashion, these competitions will likely meet their conclusion in the final spring series again the Giants in the Bay Area, just before the final cut.

Even though defending American League Champions are what stand in between the A’s and a division title, there is little doubt that improvements have been made, and expectations are high in the East Bay for the first time in a long time.

The additions of both Grant Balfour and Brian Fuentes may not be earth shattering news within the baseball world, perhaps with the exceptions of those living either Down Under or in Merced, but the righty and lefty off-season acquisitions bolster a relief corps that finished 6^th in the AL in ERA in 2010, and perhaps more importantly, a pitching staff that finished 1^st.

Andrew Bailey, the Oakland anchor, is getting a solid foundation in 2011, thanks to GM Billy Beane

The road to recovery from Tommy John Surgery may prove to be just one of a few obstacles both Josh Outman and Joey Devine will face this spring. Outman, who’s been out since June of 2009, is considered one of the top candidates for the 5^th starter job, while Devine looks to stake his claim in the Oakland bullpen, despite not having made an appearance since his stellar 08’ campaign. Outman’s candidacy is likely to be challenged by the returning Rich Harden, and former White Sox prospect Brandon McCarthy. LHP Bobby Cramer could also prove to be a dark horse, as could Tyson Ross, and were both formerly accompanied by RHP Clayton Mortensen, who was recently sent to Colorado in exchange for fellow righty Ethan Hollingsworth.

LHP Jerry Blevins may be the most obvious and likely odd man out in the wake of the Balfour and Fuentes additions, the predominance of righties in the pen could help his chances. Unfortunately, the names Balfour, Fuentes, Bailey, Devine, Breslow, Wuertz, Ziegler, Blevins, Harden, McCarthy, and Outman are all viable candidates for the pen, (possibly one of the last three if they don’t win the 5^th spot) but 6 relievers tends to be the maximum in the AL. That likely means four, but possibly five proven pitchers may find themselves on the short end of the stick, and somewhere other than Oakland to start the 2011 season.

**UPDATE**

I wrote this article November 5th, 2010, so excuse the references toward certain events as “recent” when they are in fact not-so-recent (as in a month and a half before the posting date here at PSB).  Juan Uribe has since signed with the Dodgers and Bill Hall is now an Astro.  But read on.  Those are far from key points here.

**Original Post**

The Starter

Billy Beane recently mentioned that options and buyouts would not be addressed until the conclusion of the World Series. Well, it took the A’s just two days after the Giants recorded the final out in Arlington before Oakland did what most people expected. What was once a question-mark at 2B (if only in theory) was clarified when the Athletics exercised the $6 million option on 2B Mark Ellis – in addition to the $5.75 million option on Coco Crisp. The team also opted to buyout Eric Chavez‘ contract for $3 million rather than picking up the $12.5 million option. It was recently revealed that Ellis qualified as a Type B free agent (missing the top 20% based on the criteria set by Elias) - meaning the A’s wouldn’t have received the compensatory first round pick from the signing team. Ellis himself was sure to be a proponent of the A’s picking up his option, since the $6 million he’s guaranteed is a lot heftier than what he’d garner on the open market. Ellis is certain to man second the majority of the year, though the A’s could also use 2011 as an opportunity to ease future 2B candidates (such as Eric Sogard) into a more prominent role, thus allowing Ellis to transition into a utility position.

(pictured above: Mark Ellis will return to the A’s in 2011)

2010 was an odd year for Ellis. A’s fans are sure to remember his less-than-stellar beginning to the year, which was initially slowed by injury. Ellis proceeded to go on an absolute tear the last two months of the season, which ultimately allowed him to finish with a respectable line of .291/.358/.381. His .739 OPS left him tied with Freddy Sanchez for 12th out of the 24 2B with at least 450 plate appearances. Fangraphs ranked Ellis second defensively to only Chase Utley in 2010, which is a big reason as to why his 3.2 WAR (Wins Above Replacement) rating have him tied with Ian Kinsler for 8th among MLB 2nd basemen.

2010 Ellis in a Nutshell

Final line: .291/.358/.381
OPS among MLB 2B (min 450 PA): .739 – 12th out of 24
UZR among MLB 2B (min 900 Inn): 9.9 – 2nd out of 24
ISO among MLB 2B (min 450 PA): .089 – 20th out of 24
WAR among MLB 2b (min 450 PA): 3.2 – 8th out of 24

Though respectable, the numbers are deceiving. While the .739 OPS isn’t something the feds might call Victor Conte about, Ellis’ .321 BABIP is 28 points higher than his career average - and his highest since .335 in 2005 – meaning it’s not sustainable. His ISO in 2010 was also a career low .089, which may leave fans wondering about his age catching up to him. Aside from that, Ellis should still be considered an above-average MLB 2nd baseman.  His defense has certainly never been mentioned and the only knock on him is based on Ellis’ health history. Though due for regression, Mark Ellis continues to be overlooked by the baseball world but the A’s won’t complain – unless they try shopping him.

The Backup/ The Case For Sogard

Most followers of Baseball America, Scout.com, Project Prospect, and/or Baseball Prospectus are familiar with A’s farmhand Adrian Cardenas. The downside is that most followers have been familiar with him for a bit too long. Cardenas showed tremendous upside almost immediately after the Phillies took him in the 1st round in the 06′ draft. Baseball America named him in their pre-season Top 100 entering both 2008 and 2009 - going as far as naming him the top 2B prospect in all of baseball. Acquired by Oakland in the 2008 Joe Blanton deal with Philadelphia, Cardenas continued to impress through the 2009 campaign after being promoted to Triple-A Sacramento. The notion that he wasn’t ready for advancement proved true once again in 2010 starting the year in Sacramento, where he posted a .228/.285/.281 line in 31 games with the River Cats. Cardenas’ poor performance to start 2010 forced the A’s to demote him back to Double-A Midland. Cardenas curiously managed to put a .345/.436/.469 line on his stat sheet, once again earning a trip back to Triple-A. Despite the inconsistency, the A’s were pleased to watch him put up a line of .313/.362/.385 upon his return to the PCL. Unfortunately, Cardenas’ recent struggles at AAA have left him in a less-favorable position with the projection analysts than two seasons ago. Questions about Cardenas are based on his disproportionate performance, defensive footwork and lack of familiarity with the 2nd-base position (he was drafted as a shortstop). Nevertheless, he remains a viable utility/backup option in addition to Ellis’ potential successor in the future.

Another candidate to succeed Mark Ellis is Eric Sogard. Not as popular a prospect as Cardenas, Sogard has shown remarkable consistency at every level. The Padres’ 2007 second-rounder posted a .308/.394/.453 line at High-A in 2008 and a .293/.370/.400 line at Double-A in 2009. Sogard was traded to Oakland with Kevin Kouzmanoff in the winter. Most recently, Sogard managed a .300/.391/.407 in a full season at Triple-A Sacramento, before being called up to Oakland in September. Perhaps the most impressive aspect of Sogard’s game is his discerning eye – he’s walked a Daric Barton-esque 1.13 times per strikeout in his minor league career. Sogard is also highly regarded for his glove work - something to offer Mark Ellis enthusiasts solace.

In addition to his reputation as a defensive specialist, Sogard has posted a strikingly familiar line to Ellis in their respective minor league careers. Here’s a comparison of Ellis along with the lead candidates to succeed him.

Mark Ellis: (380 MiLB Games) .292/.383/.413 .796
Eric Sogard: (441 MiLB Games) .295/.380/.414 .793
Adrian Cardenas: (516 MiLB Games) .300/.366/.411 .778

While it may seem as though I’m trying to skew the numbers in favor of Sogard, his numbers are more notable if only his full seasons are counted – meaning the 54 games he played after signing with San Diego in 2007 are taken out of the equation. The disparity between that season and the following years is huge, while the sample size is no less adequate at 387 games. His 2007 numbers could be considered an outlier; possibly a result of factors such as traveling between the Northwest League, the Midwest League, and the PCL in such a short period of time. Maybe it was a factor of playing immediatelyafter signing - or simply because it was the only season in which he changed his uniform multiple times. Either way, his performance over full seasons has been impressive.

Eric Sogard since 2008: (387 MiLB Games) .301/.388/.421 .809

As much time as I took to write about Eric Sogard, those very accolades (or those of Adrian Cardenas) could be what send them off in an offseason trade. While it’s unlikely both of them are dealt, their departure wouldn’t be threatening to the A’s retaining a legitimate backup option at 2nd. Adam Rosales is expected to be healthy by the start of spring. “Rosy” put up solid numbers for a utility guy, posting a .271/.321/.400 while playing excellent defense all over the infield.

The 2B Market

In all honesty, there’s hardly a 2B market. Scott Moore and Bill Hall are arguably the most intriguing names on the list. Since the A’s have at least 4 players that could undoubtedly put up better numbers than both, there is no need to waste anymore time writing about the 2011 2B free agents. Juan Uribe is a legitimate name if you count him as a 2B. His 3.2 WAR was equal to Ellis and better than San Francisco’s Freddy Sanchez. Still, the 2B market isn’t quite star-studded enough for the A’s to start considering anyone this year.

That’s all for now.

Go A’s.

CPR 12-20-2010

One day after the A’s ended their disappointing streak on the open market with the additions of Hideki Matsui and Brandon McCarthy, Billy Beane added a familiar face to the Oakland roster. Rich Harden agreed to a 1-year, $1.5 million deal.  The very next day, Beane acquired OF Josh Willingham from the Washington Nationals in exchange for RP Henry Rodriguez and minor-league OF Corey Brown.

The A’s plan to use Rich Harden as a reliever in 2011, though he may compete for the 5th-starter spot with Josh Outman and Brandon McCarthy.  Harden came up in the Oakland system, first breaking into the majors in 2003.  He was one of the most promising young pitchers in baseball prior to the 2005 season. Harden’s reputation as a hard-throwing, strikeout pitcher gradually became overshadowed by his current reputation as an injury-prone liability.  As recently as 2007 Harden was the Opening Day starter for the A’s and will don the same uniform in the upcoming campaign (but will likely be used in a different capacity).  The intentions for Harden in 2011 to work out of the bullpen are an understandable measure taken by the A’s, considering his history.

The acquisition of Josh Willingham from the Nationals addresses Oakland’s most pressing need – offense.  Despite having one of the most dominant young pitching staffs in Major League Baseball last season, the Oakland offense was among the least productive.  The infield boasted dazzling defensive numbers using various metrics that countered their quiet bats, but the outfield did neither - with the exception of Coco Crisp (who didn’t play the entire season).  The A’s plan on using Willingham primarily in LF, Crisp in CF and the recent off-season acquisition from KC, David DeJesus in RF.  Ryan Sweeney now becomes the A’s fourth OF, but should still see plenty of playing time as a result of his versatility in the outfield.

While the A’s have now added Willingham, Matsui, and DeJesus to their lineup, the lacking offense still remains an issue.  The urgency of its acknowledgment has certainly been alleviated (to an extent), but Beane implied over conference call that the team is probably not done searching for help.

CPR 12-17-2010

After a combination of disappointing results and a lack of development regarding the offers made to free-agents on their behalf (some of which were reported to include Adrian Beltre, Adam Dunn, Lance Berkman, as well as the now-infamous Hisashi Iwakuma), the Oakland Athletics finally found success on back-to-back days in the middle of December.  On Monday, the 13th, the Athletics inked RHP Brandon McCarthy to a 1-year, $1 million deal that could be worth an additional $1.6 million with incentives.  The very next day the A’s announced the signing of former Yomiuri Giant, former New York Yankee and most recently, former Los Angeles Angel of Anaheim, Hideki Matsui.  Matsui’s deal was initially reported around $6 million, but a number of subsequent sources reported the deal worth $4.25 million.  The A’s also avoided arbitration by reaching a 1-year agreement with reliever Joey Devine.

While the McCarthy deal is obviously the less publicized of the two, the A’s have added what many believe could be a “diamond-in-the-rough” fifth starter or long relief pitcher.  Those well-versed in the career of Brandon McCarthy may be quick to point out that the 27-year old righty was ranked by Baseball America as the #49 prospect in all of baseball entering the 2005 season.  His big-league progress has been hindered by shoulder injuries which have persisted since he was first called-up by the Chicago White Sox. However, McCarthy’s 8 minor-league seasons have resulted in a posted average of 9.8 K/9IP, a 1.10 WHIP, and a 5.26 K/BB ratio that everyone with the exception of Cliff Lee would envy. 

Following the dissolution of the Iwakuma talks, the addition of McCarthy to the A’s staff saves the club $18 million ($19 million for the Iwakuma posting fee – $1 million for McCarthy). It also sets up an exciting and interesting battle for the final spot in the Oakland rotation, which already includes a talented Top-4 of Trevor Cahill, Brett Anderson, Gio Gonzalez, and Dallas Braden. Two favorites for that fifth spot are McCarthy and the recovering Josh Outman (who missed all of 2010 due to Tommy John surgery undergone in 2009).  Bobby Cramer, Tyson Ross, and Clay Mortensen are among those who round out the remaining popular candidates for the job or for bullpen spots.

The addition of Hideki Matsui to the A’s lineup aids an offense among the worst in 2010.  While Matsui’s power isn’t quite that of Adam Dunn, the 36-year old DH/OF provides a level of pop the A’s have lacked for the past few seasons.  Matsui will go into the 2011 season with a career .848 OPS (the only Athletics over .800 in 2010 were the recently departed Jack Cust, and the young 2B Eric Sogard – who accomplished the feat in 4 games).  Adding Matsui as the A’s primary DH allows the team to utilize a modified platoon.  The left-handed hitting Matsui can take the majority of games against righties, while the young right-handed hitting Chris Carter will ease into the position against lefties.  Although Hideki Matsui is certainly a welcome addition in Oakland, it is unlikely that the A’s are finished with their search for more offense.  It is hard to imagine Billy Beane will rest before every stone has been turned.

CPR12-15-10

Here’s a brief update regarding all the action in the A’s front office as of recent.  First, a few acquisitions, followed by some free-agent news.

The A’s traded the speedy Rajai Davis to Toronto in exchange for two right-handed minor league relievers, Trystan Magnuson and Daniel Farquhar.

Also getting picked up from Toronto via the waiver wire was 3B Edwin Encarnacion.  Plenty of uncertainty now surrounds the 2011 A’s 3B position, as the Encarnacion addition has a lot of people wondering what the A’s plan on doing with either Encarnacion and/or Kevin Kouzmanoff.

Adding to the uncertainty of the 3B position is the deal the A’s reportedly offered to 3B Adrian Beltre, worth $64 million over 5 years.  While Scott Boras alleged his client should be getting $90 million over that same period of time, it’s without a doubt an uncharacteristically substantial offer on behalf of the A’s.

The A’s also recently broke off negotiations with Japanese hurler Hisashi Iwakuma, for whom the A’s bid an estimated $16 million posting fee.  The reason for the cease in talks between both parties was apparently because the proposed figures were too far apart.  Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reported that Iwakuma was seeking a contract similar to that of Giants’ lefty Barry Zito; a 7 year deal worth $126 million.

The A’s are also showing strong interest in Lance Berkman, who recently claimed the A’s have been the most aggressive team he’s spoken with so far.  Berkman also admitted he’d prefer to not be primarily used as a DH, something that may detract from the interest the A’s have in him, with Daric Barton having a stronghold at 1^st base.

**UPDATE**

I originally wrote this during the World Series, and although not much has changed, readers should be aware of the following few things that were not evident during my first draft; the A’s currently have interest in Lance Berkman; Adam Dunn has made it clear he’d prefer to play the field instead of DH; and Jeff Larish is now a free-agent.

**ORIGINAL POST**

The Starter

As of right now, Daric Barton will (and should) get the majority of playing time at 1st base in 2011. The actual amount of time could diminish somewhat, at least if I get my way (meaning Chris Carter makes the team out of spring training and the A’s sign Adam Dunn). But even if the A’s appease my own desires, fans will most assuredly see Daric Barton manning first more often than not. Even hypothetically, the addition of two sluggers that hit from both sides of the plate, who are not quite as sure-footed on the defensive end of the game as Barton, would essentially be forced to yield the position to him. Why? Because in 2010, Daric Barton proved he was beyond adequate with the glove. Last season he finished the campaign as the leader in UZR among Major League 1B’s, while finishing second to Albert Pujols in range factor/9IP among MLB 1B’s. In many respects, Barton made a name for himself strictly on his defense – something very uncommon among 1st basemen.

Barton’s offense may have left something to be desired, at least to the baseball traditionalists, and those evaluating his numbers based on the position he plays. No, he didn’t hit 30 homers and drive in 100 runs like all the aforementioned detractors probably demand of MLB 1st basemen. But the biggest contribution Daric Barton actually made in 2010 when he was holding a bat didn’t even involve him swinging it. The 25 year old California native led all of baseball in walks last year with 110. His patience was no fluke either; Barton put his keen eye on “display” by also leading the Majors with the smallest percentage of pitches swung at outside of the strike zone (O-Swing%) at 15.5%. The exceptionally patient Brett Gardner ended at 17.9%, and was the only other player besides Barton to have an O-Swing% under 18%. His remarkable approach in 2010 is why his .393 OBP% was good enough for 5th in the American League, and 9th overall.

Barton’s .798 OPS in 2010 was well above the Major League average of .728, but there’s no denying that his position tends to generate a lot more pop than just league average. Among the 24 MLB 1st basemen who qualified, Barton finished 12th in OPS. Barton was roughly average on the offensive side, perhaps slightly better, for his position – at least using OPS. With that said, as all-encompassing as the simpler stats like OPS get, it’s important to acknowledge the two components that make it up – OBP% and SLG%. Barton’s 2010 OBP% was one of the best in baseball, so his good OPS is padded quite a bit by his tremendous OBP%. (Although the calculation of OPS weighs both metrics equally, the average SLG% is approximately 1.2x the value of the average OBP%, which means that SLG% can inflate the OPS a bit, and that if you had to choose, it would be more beneficial to have an OPS padded by OBP% than SLG%.) Still, remembering that 1st base is traditionally a power-position, it’s hard to overlook Barton’s .405 SLG%. Sure, it was .002 points above the Major League average of .403, but it was the third-lowest SLG% among the previously mentioned 24 MLB 1st basemen (placing Barton 22nd of 24 in SLG%). Another statistic, whose emphasis is strictly power, and also goes by couple of different names, is Isolated Power, or “ISO.” (Also known as Isolated Slugging, abbreviated “iSLG%.”) It’s incredibly useful as an individual measure of power because the traditional SLG% can be inflated by a high batting-average or deflated by a low batting-average. What ISO does, is effectively take the batter’s frequency of hits out of the equation…literally…ISO = SLG% – AVG. How did Daric Barton fare among his MLB counterparts? AWFUL! Only James Loney ended with a worse ISO than DB, who finished 23rd out of 24 in the category.

Daric Barton is a good player. Based purely on his offensive statistics, his numbers are very good at first glance. When you see that he plays 1st base, they’re not quite as impressive. In fact, “underwhelming” would be the polite way to describe his power numbers. However, Barton’s overall value increases once again when his defense is taken into account. As little credit defensively adequate 1st basemen tend to receive, Daric Barton was undeniably exceptional. While standard measurements only tell one aspect of a players ability, WAR allows us to gauge the overall value of Daric Barton (or anyone else for that matter) by incorporating both offense and defense. Many regard Wins Above Replacement (WAR) as the end-all, be-all of baseball statistics, partially because it takes every facet of the game into account (offense, defense, replacement player value, value-adjustments based on position). We know Barton finished at or near the top in many defensive categories, his greatest strength on offense was his patience, and his greatest weakness was quite literally his weakness – power (or lack thereof). Barton’s a unique study because he’s seemingly on one extreme, either high or low, in a number of measurements. Interestingly enough, Fangraphs calculated Barton’s 2010 WAR equal to 4.9. That actually placed him 6th among MLB 1st basemen (2nd in the AL), behind Joey Votto, Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Aubrey Huff, and Adrian Gonzalez, and in front of guys like Paul Konerko, Prince Fielder, Adam Dunn, Mark Teixeira, Derrek Lee, and Ryan Howard.

The Backup

The second 1st baseman isn’t nearly as important as the 2nd catcher. It’s not even a guarantee someone besides the starter will even play in the first few weeks (or months) of the year. As of right now, Daric Barton is the only true 1st basemen that’s basically guaranteed to be on the Opening Day roster. The only backup candidates that are currently Oakland property are all naturally positioned elsewhere on the diamond. This includes Chris Carter, Adam Rosales, Jeff Larish, Landon Powell, and Josh Donaldson. Not having another true 1st baseman isn’t really a problem; most teams enter spring training without a clear second option at first. In my opinion, it’s more of an opportunity than anything else. If Chris Carter makes the team then it gives the A’s another glove at 1st (and protection from Carter in LF when someone else DH’s). If my wish is granted and Adam Dunn is in Green & Gold next season then he’ll provide another 1st base option for the A’s. The closest thing to a dark horse candidate would have to be Tommy Everidge, which would basically mean something went wrong over the course of the offseason (like no moves whatsoever and/or Barton is hurt to start the year).

The 1st Base Market

If the A’s sign a 1st baseman, it’s because they want a DH. Chris Carter should get a number of opportunities in that capacity, but the A’s may want to add a left-handed stick with power if Jack Cust isn’t back in 2011 (and all signs indicate that he won’t be). The A’s could give consideration to Type A free agents Adam Dunn, Derrek Lee, and Paul Konerko, or Type B guys like Carlos Pena and Aubrey Huff. That’s not to say a Mark Kotsay reunion is out of the question, or the possible addition of Lyle Overbay or Troy Glaus shouldn’t be considered so the A’s have some power off the bench. The payouts owed to each candidate is sure to be a factor in the A’s potential negotiations of the future. Aubrey Huff is one player certainly deserving of a huge raise, regardless if he returns to the Giants or decides to test the waters of free agency. Huff’s inconsistency in his career is his biggest detractor, but if my guess is correct, it won’t matter because he’ll be back in Orange & Black next season. One guy who won’t be wearing the uniform he ended 2010 in is Lance Berkman, whose option was recently declined by the Yankees. Berkman failed in the American League, and his contribution to the Yanks was minimal. His .255/.358/.349 should result in a fair salary drop, despite being one of the more consistent power hitters of the past decade.

All of this is obviously nothing more than speculation based on itself (that being absolutely nothing). I don’t know anyone who knows anyone anywhere in an MLB front office, and I could easily continue reciting name after name, knowing the more I list, the odds I mention someone the A’s will acquire increase. Still, I’d still like to reiterate my one wish for the A’s regarding free agents this offseason: ADAM DUNN. The Type A status is probably his biggest detractor from the standpoint of an organization such as the A’s, who have lived an died on their early draft picks. But the amount of money the A’s have coming off the books should allow them some leverage if they get into a bidding war with some teams. Anyone thinking he’ll be another Jack Cust won’t lose that argument from me, but that’s because Cust was never as bad as most people felt he was. Sure, both of them strikeout a lot, but an out is an out. Both Adam Dunn’s and Jack Cust’s high OBP%’s mean they get on base more frequently than the average hitter – which, in turn, means that they make outs less frequently than the average hitter. So who cares how they’re making those outs? Even if they’re striking out every time, the end result is the same as an unproductive ground-out or fly-out, and their plate appearances result in an out far less often than most players. Cust’s strengths were his patience and his power, and Adam Dunn excels in both those categories arguably more than anyone. Most people would say that those are in fact Dunn’s greatest assets, but from a fan of a hopefully prospective suitor, it’s his consistency I admire most.

Somehow it took me that long to say that Daric Barton’s a good 1st baseman who will start for the A’s in 2011 and that I wish/hope the A’s sign Adam Dunn…that’s about everything in a nutshell.

Go A’s

Like many had predicted, the A’s dealt the most expendable of their young arms on Wednesday as they sent Vin Mazzaro to Kansas City, along with 2009 third-rounder Justin Marks, in exchange for long time Royals OF David DeJesus. While the departure of Mazzaro was certainly foreseeable, David DeJesus seemed to be garnering more interest from the Red Sox than the A’s – at least in public.

Oakland GM Billy Beane mentioned that his admiration for DeJesus had existed for some time, and it’s easy to see why. The newest member of the A’s has put up some very Moneyball-esque numbers in his career. He’s posted a .289/.360/.427/.787 line in his career while playing solid defense in the KC outfield.

Those who don’t find DeJesus much more than a “decent” acquisition may be unaware of Oakland’s OF production in 2010. While Coco Crisp put up a 3.3 WAR in an injury-plagued year, the remaining 12 outfielders totaled 0.1 Wins Above Replacement. The ex-Royal-turned-Athletic was on pace for a 4.5 WAR until a thumb injury ended his year at a 2.9 WAR.

After the DeJesus trade was made public, another deal involving the A’s – albeit one that won’t come to fruition as quickly (hopefully…in a good way that is) – was in it’s finalizing stages. The A’s signed 16 year-old CF Vicmal De La Cruz of the Dominican Republic to a deal that has yet to be disclosed. Little is known about De La Cruz among the general public, but Blake Bentley of MLBTR compiled a list of the top Dominican prospects after exchanging words with numerous MLB executives and scouts, and De La Cruz topped the list. The young prospect is said to have a superior set of tools, and “star power.”

The A’s are still within their 30-day window to sign Japanese hurler Hisashi Iwakuma, whose bid made the trade on Wednesday perhaps more expected than a trade involving a young Oakland starter already was (if that’s even possible). DeJesus is almost assuredly not Beane’s last move in preparation of 2011, as he recently vowed to be creative this offseason.

Less than a week in, he’s already put the Moneyball where his mouth is.

**UPDATE**

Around 9:00AM PST on Monday, the A’s officially announced they won the rights to negotiate with Hisashi Iwakuma.

**ORIGINAL POST**

While there has not been any official announcement, it appears as though the Oakland Athletics placed the winning bid to negotiate a contract with Hisashi Iwakuma, ace of the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles. The news comes from tweets made by Iwakuma’s agent Don Nomura.

It’s important to note that placing the winning bid does not constitute a contract – it merely gives the A’s exclusive rights to negotiate one with him.  Iwakuma is regarded as the second best pitcher in Japan behind Yu Darvish.

What does this mean for the A’s?  If Nomura’s tweets mean the A’s really were the top bidders, it appears as though one of their starters may be dealt for a bat.  Ken Rosenthal proposed that the A’s may look into a deal with Milwaukee for Casey McGehee, while the A’s would send a package possibly consisting of Vin Mazzaro and/or even Iwakuma himself.  However, Iwakuma won’t be eligible for a trade until June, should the A’s work out a deal with him.  In that event, a deal would likely involve the A’s trading their rights to negotiate instead.    Either way, the hot stove in Oakland is already getting pretty warm.

The Starting Job
This one is pretty simple. Unless something completely unforeseen occurs this winter, Kurt Suzuki will be the A’s starting catcher on opening day. As things stand right now, that’s probably in addition to roughly 140 more games to follow, including his role as DH from time-to-time. While his total games played in 2010 turned out to be a personal low for Suzuki among his first three full seasons in the Majors, his 131 appearances still placed him in the top 4 among Major League catchers-not necessarily to the Athletics’ benefit. Of those four catchers, Suzuki’s .669 OPS was the worst. If you think fourth out of four of the most “everyday” of the everyday catchers might be too small of a sample size, Suzuki’s numbers only look worse with further examination. There were 19 big-league catchers to appear in at least 100 games in 2010; only Alex Avila, Ivan Rodriguez, and Jason Kendall had an OPS lower than Kurt Suzuki’s.

Although 2010 was undeniably a down year for Suzuki, he’s been one of the more overrated catchers in baseball ever since his first full season in 2008. Not to take anything away from what he could quite conceivably do in the future, it should be noted that his WAR’s actually fallen each year since then. That could certainly be attributed to the league-wide mediocrity of the catching position, but that’s really only applicable to his first couple years. More offensive-minded catchers seem to be cropping up all over baseball. In 2009, Suzuki finished fifth in WAR, despite putting up somewhat pedestrian numbers compared to the non-catching majority. Among the top 30 MLB catchers in games played in 2010, 13 of them had a higher OPS than Kurt Suzuki did in 2009, his best season to date. Yes, that means the 2009 version of Kurt Suzuki would place 14^th among these 30 catchers, which is “good” by comparison at the very least. But the 2009 version of Kurt Suzuki was among the better catchers in a pool of inferior talent compared to that of 2010. Brian McCann, Joe Mauer, Buster Posey, Carlos Ruiz, Jorge Posada, John Buck, Ramon Hernandez, and Geovany Soto all posted an OPS over .790 in 2010. If Victor Martinez still counts as a catcher then add his name to the list also. That means there are twice as many good-hitting catchers now as there were a year ago. What does this mean for next season? Kurt Suzuki’s poor 2010 means his relative value has dropped even more than it appears. The recent emergence of league-wide talent behind the plate has consequentially made Kurt Suzuki nothing much more than a “tolerable” catcher entering the 2011 season. Despite not yet having reached the Bengie Molina zone of the WAR scale, his +1.6 wins in 2010 leave a bit to be desired-especially for a player as celebrated among A’s fans as Kurt Suzuki.

Suzuki’s numbers could change depending on the roster alterations that may or may not occur in the upcoming winter. If a big-time impact bat (or two) is added, and/or perhaps Daric Barton or Chris Carter become legitimate contributors, then it wouldn’t be surprising to see Suzuki earn his way back into the upper-echelon of MLB catchers. It’s definitely worth noting that he’s never been a part of a truly formidable lineup. Suzuki was written in as the third hitter in the A’s lineup 59 times last season, tied with Ryan Sweeney. Using him as the A’s three-hitter was just as unfair to him as it was to A’s fans. It also speaks to how anemic the offense really was (Ryan Sweeney?!). The fact that Suzuki was even considered a three-hitter is a reflection of the few options Bob Geren actually had when he was writing names down.

Kurt Suzuki at a Glance

OPS among MLB C (min 350 PA): 20th out of 23
ISO among MLB C (min 350 PA): 15th out of 23
WAR among MLB C (min 350 PA): 18th out of 23

2010 was still no excuse to panic about Kurt Suzuki’s future. It’s still completely within reason to expect him to match, or even improve on his 2009 numbers, which were actually above the 2010 MLB average of .257/.325/.403, and just about on par with the 2010 AL average of .260/.327/.407. It’s really only the emergence of certain catchers that decreased his relative value among players at that position (in conjunction with the down year). In that respect, A’s fans shouldn’t grow too worrisome because the catching position won’t become the slugger safe-haven that 1^st base has traditionally been. With that said, A’s fans aren’t going to complain if a few more big bats make it so their everyday backstop doesn’t even have to think about hitting 3^rd again, or being penciled in as the designated hitter. Kurt Suzuki probably wouldn’t complain either.

The Backup Plan

The backup catching position is far less certain than the starting situation. Josh Donaldson is expected to compete with Landon Powell for the job. Most A’s fans know of Landon Powell’s health conditions that essentially prevent him from ever being an everyday catcher. What will be interesting is how the spring plays out. Assuming both guys are still around for it, the backup job is Powell’s to take, but Donaldson will get the closest look behind him. Josh Donaldson hasn’t had enough MLB appearances to compare his big-league numbers to Powell’s, but one could argue that not even Powell has gotten an adequate amount either, despite having been on the team for the better part of the last two seasons. A decent comparison of the two could be drawn from their minor league numbers. Landon Powell put up a line of .255/.361/.433 in 306 minor league games while Josh Donaldson has a more favorable line of .271/.366/.460 in 373 minor league games. The defensive aspect however, is in Landon Powell’s favor. A 2007 scouting report of Josh Donaldson notes his strong, accurate arm as his greatest defensive asset, while his inexperience at the position, along with his poor footwork, and subpar ball-blocking ability left some scouts questioning his ability to remain a catcher on his way to the big leagues. Landon Powell on the other hand, was named the best defensive catcher in the Athletics organization by Baseball America going into the 2009 season.

Other Candidates

Obviously Max Stassi should get an invite to big league camp, but his performance his first year of professional baseball implies that he has a few things to work on in the lower levels before he becomes a real candidate. Besides, the A’s wouldn’t waste Stassi’s time as a backup anyway.

The Catching Market

When the Athletics signed Kurt Suzuki to a 4-year extension this past June, they did it because they plan on him being around for awhile. That extension, combined with Suzuki’s poor play, all but squashed the rumors surrounding Boston’s interest in the Maui native. If the A’s are even mentioned as a team with interest in the Russell Martin’s or Mike Napoli’s of this years’ offseason, it’s because the aforementioned “unforeseeable” has happened…or is about to happen…or may potentially happen…or you’re dreaming. The last of which is the most likely. In other words, regarding the A’s pursuit of a starting or backup catcher via trade or free agency, all signs point to NO. The A’s have too many lineup issues glaring them straight in the face to waste their time debating how much worse Chris Iannetta’s numbers could get when 0% of his games are played at Coors Field instead of 50%, or whether a Ramon Hernandez reunion that forces the A’s to give up two draft picks could turn out worse than the Jason Giambi reunion of 2009.

Prediction

As much as I’d like to be bold, I’d prefer not looking like an idiot in the end, so I’ll try for both ends of the spectrum. I think Suzuki’s extension gives Max Stassi time to develop into the A’s starting catcher of 2014 or 2015. Additionally, Landon Powell has done fine as the second option over the past two seasons. And while Josh Donaldson is unquestionably talented, he’s probably too talented to be a backup. But he’s also not going to be the starting catcher. The organizational conditions surrounding Kurt Suzuki, Landon Powell and Max Stassi make Donaldson expendable in my opinion. He’s not going to bring back Albert Pujols, but he could add value to a trade package designed by the A’s that helps them attain one of the bats they so desperately need.

Starting Catcher on Opening Day 2011: Kurt Suzuki

Backup Catcher on Opening Day 2011: Landon Powell

If Josh Donaldson is on the Opening Day roster, I still think he’ll get traded. It’s a fair possibility because the A’s may try showcasing him during the spring, and the exchange may not actually commence until later into the season.