It’s official: The Jacksonville Jaguars are playoff contenders, even while playing in the contentious AFC South. Though impressive in style, the true merit of Jacksonville’s win over Dallas three weeks ago was questioned at the time due to the Cowboys’ perceived lack of effort. Jacksonville’s accomplishment last Sunday, however, could not be, as the Jags defeated a quality opponent in Houston, and looked mostly impressive in doing so. Now the Jags find themselves riding a two-game winning streak, in the middle of a divisional playoff race, and heading into a very winnable game at home against Cleveland this Sunday. Yet with road games against the Giants and Titans on the horizon, a Jacksonville win this weekend is a must, as momentum and standing in the NFL can be lost every bit as quickly as it can be gained.

Like Jacksonville, Cleveland has also experienced a sort of resurgence of late, defeating New Orleans and New England in consecutive weeks before losing to the Jets in overtime last Sunday. And though Cleveland would need a whole bunch of help, both teams will play as if their playoff hopes are on the line this weekend. With that said, let’s take a closer look at how the two teams matchup, whose got edges, and where.

KEYS TO WEEK 11:

Both teams want a win this Sunday in the worst kind of way. The Browns would like to bounce back from a tough overtime loss to New York last weeekend and can’t afford any more losses if making the playoffs is going to be a reasonable goal. As for the Jags, few teams are playing better football and with more confidence at the moment, but a loss at home to Cleveland would put all that to a quick end.

As we discuss every week, football is very much about matchups, and Jacksonville should be the recipient of some pretty favorable ones this Sunday. While Cleveland sports a relatively average run defense, it has been mostly bad against opposing passing attacks this year. On the other side of the ball, rookie quarterback Colt McCoy has been relatively impressive in his four starts, but doesn’t have the savvy, experience or receivers to truly take advantage of a vulnerable Jacksonville secondary. Without further ado, then, let’s take a closer look at these matchups and more below.

Ball in Hand:

Let’s start by establishing where Cleveland is most vulnerable. The Browns are without question more competitive against the run than the pass. That doesn’t mean they dominate opposing backs – Cleveland has given up 120 rushing yards or more in three of its last five games – but they are no doubt respectable when it comes to keeping opposing rushing attacks in check. The team’s pass defense, on the other hand, is a bottom-10 unit in the league and has been on the receiving end of some pretty prolific passing performances this year.

As for the Jacksonville, David Garrard and company couldn’t be happier about drawing Cleveland and its vulnerable defensive backs this Sunday. That’s mostly because Jacksonville’s starting quarterback is in the midst of the best four-game stretch of his career and has all of a sudden made Jacksonville into a legitimate threat to beat opponents through the air. Excluding his limited action against Tennessee, over his last four starts Garrard has completed 74-of-94 passes for 943 yards and 11 touchdowns, with just one interception. Those awesome totals translate into an awesome quarterback rating of 143.

The Jags have always been a run-first football team, and the Browns can expect to get a heavy dose of Maruice Jones-Drew on Sunday. Garrard, Mike Sims-Walker, Mike Thomas, and Marcedes Lewis, however, will be the true keys to victory this weekend, as Jacksonville will get its best opportunity to exploit the Cleveland defense through the air, riding its quarterback and his blazing arm.

On the Defense:

By now, we all know Jacksonville’s secondary is the weakest part of its defense. Fortunately, though, McCoy and his receivers are among the league’s least capable of taking advantage of the porous Jags, which should place Jacksonville’s defensive focus clearly on stopping the Cleveland ground game.

While the Browns are less than mediocre when it comes to passing the football, the team sure can run it, as Peyton Hillis is one of the league leaders in rushing yards and ranks third among all backs with eight rushing touchdowns this season. The bruising, 240-pound, third-year breakout player managed 82 yards rushing last week against the mighty Jets, and ran for 144 yards on the road against Baltimore earlier in the season and for 184 two weeks ago against New England.

Though McCoy has put together a respectable rookie campaign, he is neither capable of carrying a team nor ready to be the reason one wins. The key to beating the surging Browns, then, centers around containing Hillis and the Cleveland rushing attack. Jacksonville ranks 21^st in the league this year in rush defense, which is hardly a great number, but has the ability to play better than solid run defense on occasion. The loss of defensive end Aaron Kampan (ACL), however, will continue to hurt Jacksonville’s pass rush, which could in turn make committing to and stopping the run a significantly more difficult task.

When it’s all Said and Done:

Considering how good Jacksonvile has looked over the last three weeks, this weekend’s matchup with the Browns should be an extremely favorable one. Cleveland is playing great football, though, and features a very imposing rushing attack.

Garrard’s edge over the Cleveland secondary is decisive and should make moving the ball relatively easy for Jacksonville. The Jags must stop the Browns before scoring their own points, though, and I’m afraid the team’s lack of a pass rush could spell disaster.

If Jacksonville can’t pressure McCoy the young quarterback will find his open receivers, which will force the Jags to divert attention from stopping the run, making Hillis a much more formidable opponent. Simply put, if the Jaguars can’t pressure the quarterback they won’t get the Cleveland offense off the field or the ball in Garrard’s hands nearly enough. Unfortunately, I predict this is exactly what will happen on Sunday, and the Jags will find themselves on the losing end of another close, but high-scoring affair.

Prediction: 27-24, Cleveland

As bad as things have gotten at times this season, all is actually well in Jacksonville at the moment. In fact, in the hotly contested, ultra-competitive AFC South, the Jaguars find themselves tied for second place at 4-4 and just one game behind the division-leading Titans and Colts, who are both just 5-3. Of course, all this makes Jacksonville’s game this Sunday that much more important, as a divisional foe, the Houston Texans, visit EverBank Field. Interestingly, Houston finds itself in much the same position the Jaguars were in last weekend, when their 35-17 thrashing of the Dallas Cowboys put an end to a two-game losing streak.

For the record, Houston lost on the road in decisive fashion to the Colts two weeks ago and then fell late in a close one against the Chargers one Sunday ago. And, if the divisional import surrounding this Sunday’s game wasn’t enough, both teams truly find themselves at seasonal crossroads. After a highly impressive 3-1 start to the year, Houston has now dropped three of its last four games and a win on Sunday is a must if it wants to be considered a legitimately good team. The Texans also follow up their game with Jacksonville with brutal contests at New York (Jets), against the Titans twice, at Philadelphia and versus Baltimore.

Jacksonville, on the other hand, hasn’t won or lost this year with any sort of consistency, and at some point needs to find a true identity. Over the last three weeks, the Jags have lost to Tennessee by 27 points and to Kansas City by 22, but most recently defeated Dallas by 18. And such inconsistencies make one wonder if the Jags have really turned the corner or if they were simply the recipients of a recent tilt with the uncompetitive Dallas Cowboys. Fortunately, such questions will in all likelihood be firmly answered this Sunday, in what’s shaping up to be the most important game to date for both teams involved.

KEYS TO WEEK 10:

As already established above, Sunday’s game couldn’t be much bigger for either team and, based strictly on matchups, should be one of the weekend’s most exciting games. Houston features a top-ten offense and finds success both on the ground and through the air. Texan quarterback Matt Schaub can be dynamic at times, receiver Andre Johnson is the NFL’s best and Arian Foster currently leads the league in rushing yards from scrimmage.

As for Jacksonville, things couldn’t be going any better on offense. Quarterback David Garrard is coming off the best game of his career and has never been more confident, Mike Sims-Walker and Marcedes Lewis are playing at all-time levels, and the Jaguar rushing attack is at the very least reliable. To make matters even better for Garrard and Company, Houston ranks very last in the NFL when it comes to containing opponent passing attacks and doesn’t exactly boast a dominant run defense either. Now, lets visit these matchups and more in greater detail.

Ball in Hand:

Going into most games, Jacksonville’s game plan is to pound the football with Maurice Jones-Drew and others, and for good reason. Until recently, it was perhaps the only thing Jacksonville could even consider calling an offensive strength. All of sudden, though, Garrard, Lewis and Sims-Walker seem like a deadly aerial trio, and just in time to face the league’s worst pass defense.

No team in the NFL has given up more yards through the air than Houston, and it’s given up the most passing touchdowns and the 3rd-highest completion percentage as well. As a result, Jacksonville should have no problem tossing the pigskin all around EvernBank Field, which in turn should stretch the defense and lead to open running lanes for Jones-Drew and others.

The Jags have always been a run-first football team, and they shouldn’t change that this weekend. That means running the ball early to explore the pass later. Jacksonville’s overall game plan, however, should absolutely reflect its newfound passing prowess as well as Houston’s conveniently porous secondary. And, if everything goes accordingly, the Jags should have no problem moving the ball up and down the field on Houston this Sunday.

On the Defense:

Unfortunately, the Jacksonville defense won’t see such favorable matchups this Sunday. While the unit has done a pretty decent job limiting opponents’ rushing yards, it has also given up the third-most rushing touchdowns this year. Of course, that doesn’t bode well for a team going up against Foster, the league’s leading rusher.

And, while I’m piling on, Jacksonville will of course still trot out the same dreadful secondary this Sunday, and must deal with Johnson, the league’s most physically imposing wideout. In truth, Jacksonville doesn’t have the manpower to matchup with all of Houston’s offensive threats and, as a result, must play solid situational football and, at times, choose what it wants to concede.

Usually stopping the run is of paramount concern to a defense, and I imagine Sunday will be no different for Jacksonville. That may mean sometimes leaving Johnson in one-on-one matchups with its corners, but certain risks are necessary when a team is at a personnel disadvantage. Jacksonville will also need to limit the big play, and try to force as many turnovers as possible. In the end, if Jacksonville can commit to stopping the run and force some mistakes in the passing game – like it did against Dallas last weekend, when the team recorded four interceptions – it will go a long way in keeping the Houston offense in check.

When it’s all Said and Done:

On paper, it looks as though both defenses will struggle stopping the opposing offense. Both teams have weak defensive backfields and an offensive ability to attack opponents both through the air and on the ground. Jacksonville, however, is coming off a bye and is playing at home, precisely the reason it is a slight favorite heading into the action.

Still, at any other point in the season, I’d pick Houston over Jacksonville in a must-win game. Quite simply, I believe it’s the better team. On this particular Sunday, however, I have to go not so much with Jacksonville, but with Garrard. As well as he is playing, Houston’s weak defensive backs have little chance of slowing him down, and I expect Jones-Drew to also have a huge day as a result. Considering how potent Houston’s offense is as well, I feel confident the game will be high scoring, with Jacksonville making the big plays at home when they are needed most.

Prediction: 33-27, Jacksonville

NEWS AND NOTES:

Despite the big win over Dallas, Jacksonville has been particularly busy of late, making three roster moves on Tuesday alone.

Specifically, the team added three players by signing free agent offensive tackle Adam Terry and cornerback Terrence Wheatley, while also activating wide receiver John Matthews from the practice squad. To make room, Jacksonville released quarterback Todd Bouman, defensive tackle Landon Cohen and offensive tackle Erik Pears.

BEATING THE SPREAD:

Just for kicks, each week I will pick against the spread in my three favorite games, using the opening lines from the USA Today Newspaper as my reference. Feel free to do the same; we can even compete, if you don’t mind losing (Zing!).

Hooray for me! Why, you ask? Because, for the first time in eight weeks, I went undefeated with my picks, a beautiful 3-0. It may have occurred two weeks ago, but my picks were nonetheless perfect in Week 8.

It’s straight back to business, however, and time to re-visit perfection in Week 10. Then, without further ado, my LOCKS of the week:

BALTIMORE at Atlanta, Straight Up: AFC, AFC, AFC. Like usual, the AFC is far and away better than the NFC, making this a pretty obvious pick. Though the Falcons are playing the game at home, in my opinion Atlanta is, at best, the NFC’s third-strongest team, while Baltimore may be at the top of a much stronger league. By that logic, the Ravens should at the very least win the game.

NEW YORK, GIANTS vs. Dallas, -14: Lately, everyone is taking advantage of their opportunity to bully the Cowboys, and don’t expect anything less from its divisional rival, the New York Giants. That and Giants are a much stronger, hungrier football team that is playing home. Enough said.

JACKSONVILLE vs. Houston, Straight Up: I really don’t need to explain the logic behind this pick since I’ve discussed this very game in great detail above. I will, however, say that I have great passion for pick ‘ems and that am confident the Jags will get the W.

Unfortunately, that’s all the time I’ve got for now, but be sure to check here on Sunday for a complete review of Jacksonville’s showdown with Houston. Until then, be good and keep reading…

Janovitz can be reached at Scott.Janovitz@gmail.com

The NFL: Where anything can happen. I write this specifically as it pertains to the Jacksonville Jaguars and the roller coaster-like season they’ve experienced this year. After losing in back-to-back weeks by a combined 49 points, no one could have expected a dominant performance out of Jacksonville on Sunday, even if it was playing the mixed-up Cowboys. The Jags were every bit of dominant, however, embarrassing the Cowboys, 35-17. Perhaps more surprising, the Jaguar offense did a large majority of its damage through the air, a feat no one associated with the franchise is at all accustomed to. On defense, the Jags struggled a bit early, but more than made up for their inconsistencies with big-time, opportunistic plays, including four interceptions. Below I’ve included some notes and observations from the shocking, but impressive Jaguar victory.
-David Garrard had BY FAR his best game of the year. In addition to completing 17-of-21 passes for 260 yards and four touchdowns, Garrard also did a great job limiting his own mistakes. He did fumble once in the first quarter, but it was on more of a fluky play, as the ball was stripped from him just before his arm began moving forward on an attempted pass. Turnovers are never really acceptable, but this one would have been hard to avoid.

-As good as Garrard was, he may have been the third best player on offense for Jacksonville on Sunday. Marcedes Lewis had only two catches for 51 yards, but they were as efficient a two catches as one could have, as both went for scores.

-I wrote that Garrard may have been Jacksonville’s third-best offensive player because Lewis was great while receiver Mike Sims-Walker was virtually unstoppable. He was targeted 10 times on the day, and caught an impressive eight of those passes for 153 yards and a score.

-Of course, I can’t leave out Maurice Jones-Drew, who also had a big day, rushing 27 times for 135 yards.

-For emphasis, it’s worth stating again: The Jacksonville passing attack was shockingly crisp on Sunday. Not only has Jacksonville struggled throwing the football all year, but the Dallas pass defense was among the NFL’s leading units heading into the game, making the success of the Jaguars passing attack all the more surprising, and impressive.

-Not to take anything away from the great win on Sunday, but, over the last two weeks, Dallas has looked about as disinterested as any team in the league. They look almost like they don’t care, and it’s impossible to win in the NFL with that kind of mentality.

-The Jaguar defense was dominant in the third quarter, and a bit relaxed in the fourth, when the game was pretty much over. In the first half, however, Dallas moved the ball with relative ease between the 20s, but Jacksonville always seemed to come up with a big play. In addition to intercepting three, tipped John Kitna passes, the Jaguar defense came up with a huge stop just before halftime, stuffing Dallas on 3^rd and 4^th and goal from the Jacksonville 1-yard line.

-For the day, Kitna completed 34-of-49 passes for 379 yards, one touchdown, and four interceptions. Dallas ran the ball 22 times for 50 yards and a score. For whatever reason, the Cowboys have struggled rushing the football all year, and Sunday was clearly no different.

-It’s worth noting that Derek Cox was on the receiving end of two of the interceptions, Rashean Mathis was responsible for one, and, surprisingly, big Terrance Knighton came up with the fourth.

-Again, this was clearly Jacksonville’s best offensive performance of the season, and probably its best all-around performance as well. Still, it’s hard to determine whether Jacksonville was dominant or if Dallas was that miserable. We should be able to answer that question at least in part in two weeks, when a top team from Houston travels to Jacksonville.

That’s all the time I’ve got for today. The Jags are off next weekend, so I won’t be posting my usual Sunday breakdown on Wednesday. I will report on any breaking news relevant to the team, however, so be sure to check back here periodically throughout the week. Until then, be good and keep reading.

Scott can be reached at Scott.Janovitz@gmail.com

If rather than a product of reality Jacksonville’s 2010 season was merely a fictional one on Playstation, it is right about now that each one of us would hit the restart button. Am I right? Unfortunately, that’s one of the many differences between video game and real life sports, and the result is nine more games on Jacksonville’s schedule (and these ones MUST be played). This coming Sunday, the 3-4 Jags will get their crack at a Dallas team struggling to an extent I don’t think anyone thought possible; a pre-season Super Bowl favorite and perceived as one of the league’s most talented teams, Dallas is just 1-5 on the year and has now lost three games in a row (and two of those losses came at home).

Jacksonville is no doubt happy to have starting quarterback David Garrard back and healthy, though his replacement, Todd Bouman, played more than admirably last weekend at Kansas City. But the road hasn’t been too kind to the Jags in 2010 – the team is 1-2 away from home and, outside of its win at Buffalo, has been outscored 80-33 in the two losses – and Dallas is certainly better than its record would indicate. While on the field not much about the Cowboys has resembled that of a winning team, Jacksonville has no reason to expect anything less than dogfight from a wounded, desperate underachiever this Sunday. With that said, and as usual, let’s take a look at how the two teams match up on the football field.

KEYS TO WEEK 8:

Jacksonville may not trail by much in the AFC South (it trails Houston and Indy by 1.5 games and Tennessee by 2), but they trail everyone, making a win, even this early, an absolute must. And though they have to leave the friendly confines of EverBank Field, the Jags conveniently draw a vulnerable group of Cowboys.

As alluded to above, there is no questioning which team of the two is more talented; Dallas looks to have an all-star roster compared to most, but especially when side-by-side with Jacksonville’s. But sitting at 1-5, it’s also clear that something is seriously wrong in Dallas, there’s a disconnect somewhere, and it’s keeping the Cowboys from winning football games. The question is, then, can Jacksonville, like some many other teams already have, take advantage?

Ball in Hand:

Despite all its losing, Dallas probably isn’t as horrid defensively as one might think. In fact, the Cowboys actually feature one of the league’s stingiest defenses when it comes to limiting opposing quarterbacks, ranking seventh overall and giving up just 200 yards per game through the air. But, as has been well established throughout the year, that’s pretty OK with the Jags, as they accepted their passing inefficiencies long ago.

Thankfully, the Cowboys defense is particularly weak against the run, which is no doubt music to Jacksonville’s collective ears. Case in point, all three teams Jacksonville has defeated this year – Indianapolis, Buffalo and Denver – rank in the bottom seven in the league in rush defense, while Kansas City, San Diego, and Tennessee rank in the top 10, and Philadelphia is 18th. Of course, the latter group of teams made relative ease out of disposing of Jacksonville. It’s clear, then, that weak run defenses give the Jags their best chance at victory and Dallas definitely meets said qualification.

As is so often the case with the Jags, Maurice Jones-Drew and Company – which refers to Rashad Jennings, Deji Karim and Garrard scrambles – must carry the load offensively, but their success can also go a long way in slowing down the Cowboy offense, mostly by keeping it off the field. If Jacksonville can run the football with success and consistency, it will have a reasonable chance of getting a W this Sunday.

On the Defense:

Ordinarily, this would be a dreadful matchup for Jacksonville. Though they actually played their best last week against the Chiefs, the Jaguar defensive backs are about as unreliable as they come, and Tony Romo and Company – this refers to the dynamic receiving threesome that includes Miles Austin, rookie Dez Bryant (if you haven’t seen him play, and you like good football, you sure are in for a treat this Sunday) and Roy Williams – are electric through the air, especially when they aren’t shooting themselves in the feet.

I say ordinarily, though, because Romo will be out for the foreseeable future with a broken collarbone, which should at least lighten the Jacksonville secondary’s load.

Things won’t be entirely easy, however, as all three Dallas wideouts are healthy and active while John Kitna – Romo’s backup – happens to be a very capable understudy. Though now 38, Kitna has had some incredible seasons as a starting quarterback in the NFL, including two in which he threw for more than 4,000 yards.

In fact, Stopping Kitna and the Dallas passing attack will be particularly important this Sunday, as the Cowboy rushing attack has been surprisingly inept this year, averaging just 86 yards per game on the ground. Marion Barber and Felix Jones are both quality NFL running backs, but Dallas has failed miserably when it has come to committing to the run. And, outside of last week’s Kansas City meltdown, the Jaguar front seven has handled opposing rushing attacks rather well this season. I fully expect this weekend to be no different.

When it’s all Said and Done:

Both Jacksonville and Dallas need wins in a big way this Sunday, and they both probably like what they see in their opponent. Even with Kitna dropping back, Dallas will surely look to expose the Jacksonville secondary, and getting pressure from the Jaguar defensive ends, especially Aaron Kampan, would go a long way in keeping Jacksonville in the game.

On the opposite side of the ball, the Jaguars will look to take advantage of a more-than-generous Cowboy run defense, and they absolutely need to find success here to win the game.

In the end, I have absolute confidence that both teams will use their strengths to exploit the other team’s weakness, but I believe the Dallas pass attack will be simply too much for Jacksonville’s run game to keep up with. Through the air, the Cowboys will outscore the Jags this Sunday.

Prediction: 34-27, Dallas

NEWS AND NOTES:

As far as off-the-field news goes, it has been a rather slow week for Jacksonville. On Tuesday, however, the team did make a somewhat meaningful roster move, placing second-year offensive tackle Eben Britton on injured reserve. Britton suffered a shoulder injury in the first half of last Sunday’s game against the Chiefs.

As a result, the Jags signed fifth-year offensive tackle Erik Pears. The 6-8, 305-pound Pears has played in 44 games, making 30 starts since entering the NFL as an undrafted rookie with Denver in 2005.

BEATING THE SPREAD:

Just for kicks, each week I will pick against the spread in my three favorite games, using the opening lines from the USA Today Newspaper as my reference. Feel free to do the same; we can even compete, if you don’t mind losing (Zing!).

If you’ve been following along, you can probably guess about how well I did last week. And, if you went with 2-1, you’d be exactly right. It represents the fifth frustrating week in a row now that I’ve been one game less than perfect.

I am wholly resilient, though, and so, with this in mind, present my absolute LOCKS for Week 8:

NEW ENGLAND vs. Minnesota, -4.5: I’m still one of the few who think Minnesota can be one of the league’s top teams. They are not last year’s Vikings, though, and the ankle injury to Brett Favre is an absolute killer, whether he plays this Sunday or not. The hometown Patriots, on the other hand, are playing great football at the moment and will be sure to take advantage of Minnesota’s uncertainty at quarterback. I’d rather give 2.5 points, but am willing to settle donating 4.5.

NEW ORLEANS vs. Pittsburgh, Straight Up: I actually believe Pittsburgh is slightly the better team, but in addition to playing at home, New Orleans is coming off a brutal loss in its own building to Cleveland and no doubt wants a win this weekend in the worst kind of way. With the added motivation of playing perhaps the AFC’s best team, I’ll take the Super Bowl champs at home, especially when I don’t have to give a single point.

MIAMI at Cincinnati, +1: For whatever reason, and it isn’t talent, the Bengals just aren’t any good this year. And last week’s loss against the Falcons was mostly ugly. The AFC is better than the NFC, and Miami is better than Cincy. The Dolphins are also looking for redemption after the refs gave Pittsburgh a 23-22 win in Miami last Sunday. Oh, and I’m actually getting a point here with the better ‘Phins.

I’m out of time for today, but of course will be here and back in action on Sunday, recapping and analyzing Jacksonville’s 1:00 p.m. showdown with Dallas as soon as it concludes. Until then, remember to be good and keep reading.

Janovitz can be reach at Scott.Janovitz@gmai.com

The final score was ugly, and moral victories are for chumps, but Jacksonville was about impressive as it could possibly have been on Sunday, though still falling, 42-20. Even when at perfect health, a road win against the Chiefs would be tough for the Jags to come by. Without both David Garrard and Trent Edwards at the quarterback position, however, Jacksonville’s odds were hardly favorable. And while Jacksonville managed to keep the game close for a while – it trailed by just one at the half – the Jaguar secondary struggled late, and Kansas City scored two big passing touchdowns and 28 second-half points as a result. Below are some thoughts and observations from Jacksonville’s admirable, but disappointing Sunday performance.

-While most people figured the loss of Garrard and Edwards would kill the Jags, Todd Bouman actually played pretty well, finishing the game 18-of-34, for two touchdowns and two interceptions. He played much better in the first half than the second, and the interception he threw in the third, which was returned for a score, was brutal, but Bouman still played much better than anyone could have anticipated.

-The Jacksonville defense was the huge disappointment on Sunday. In the fist half, the run defense was surprisingly bad while the pass defense was about as good as ever. In the second, both were miserable, and Kansas City’s seven offensive touchdowns were proof.

-Again, I wasn’t surprised that Matt Cassel had some success through the air, but was definitely shocked that Kansas City was able to dominant the game on the ground to the extent it did. And boy did the Chiefs dominate, to the tune of 236 rushing yards. Thomas Jones carried the ball 20 times for 125 yards and a score, while Jamaal Charles carried it 15 times for 71 yards and a touchdown of his own.

-Things got out of control late, but Jacksonville was actually able to move the ball pretty consistently against the Chiefs. The team didn’t run the ball particularly well today, though, and the red zone offense was not nearly as productive as it needed to be.

-Bouman’s second-quarter touchdown pass to Maurice Jones-Drew was a thing of absolute beauty. In fact, the difference between Bouman, Garrard and Edwards is negligible. That says good things about Jacksonville’s backups, but is a huge knock on Garrard.

-As always, Jones-Drew played like a champion today. The Jags struggled rushing the football, and so did Jones-Drew – carrying the ball 16 times for 47 yards – but he did lead Jacksonville in receptions and receiving yards with five and 74, respectively.

-Mike Sims-Walker was also on the receiving end of a beautiful touchdown pass from Bouman. Sims-Walker, however, was mostly non-existent for the rest of the game.

-Kansas City did about as good a job as any team of slowing down Marcedes Lewis. The top tight end finished the game with just three catches for 44 yards.

-Defensively, Aaron Kampman was Jacksonville’s best player, totaling five tackles, one sack and two tackles for a loss.

Fortunately, that’s all I’ve got for today. Be sure to return to this space on Wednesday, though, as I will have a complete preview of Jacksonville’s upcoming showdown with Dallas. Until then, be good and keep reading.

Janovitz can be reached at Scott.Janovitz@gmail.com

It took only one week, and a Monday night disaster, for Jacksonville to go from division leading to seller dwelling, as it was the only of four AFC South teams to lose over weekend. How quickly things can change in the NFL, a concept with which fans of the 2010 Jaguars have grown more than familiar. Not long ago, Jacksonville was riding an exciting two-game win streak, and had actually begun to turn things around. But while a close loss last Monday could have potentially been justified, the 30-3 thrashing Jacksonville absorbed instead was unacceptable for sure, and momentum killing at least. If we’ve learned anything over the last six weeks, though, its that momentum can be gained as quickly as it’s so often lost, and, as sour as things may seem at the moment, we all know that a road win at Arrowhead this Sunday would have Jaguar fans singing a very different tune at this time next week.

Beating the Chiefs on the road, however, will be far from easy, as Kansas City is a quality football team in need of a win in a big way. After starting the season off with three consecutive victories, the Chiefs have lost back-to-back road games, but ball small margins and to Indianapolis and Houston, two really good football teams. To make matters worse, Arrowhead is one of the NFL’s toughest places to play and the Chiefs excel in the all-important rushing department, on both sides of the ball. Not to mention Jacksonville has some huge injury concerns to worry about at quarterback, which just so happens to be the game’s most important position. So, if the Jags have any hope of turning things back around in Week 7, they are going to have to do a whole bunch of things really well this coming Sunday. Let’s inspect that list further below.

KEYS TO WEEK 7:

It’s hard to know which Jaguar team will show up on any given Sunday, as we’ve seemingly seen a different squad each week. We do know, though, that the Jacksonville offense needs to score more than the three points it managed against Tennessee on Monday night, and must do so on the road as opposed to at home, while led by a third-string quarterback (or so it appears) and against a team that is even better defensively than the Titans.

There is no question the Chiefs will be a difficult matchup for the Jags this Sunday, especially if neither David Garrard (concussion) nor backup quarterback Trent Edwards (finger) plays. We probably won’t know which signal caller Jacksonville will go with until Friday, Saturday, or maybe even Sunday, but it could be Garrard, Edwards or Todd Bouman, whom the team recently re-signed. With said uncertainty aside, then, let’s take some time to consider the matchups we actually know will take place this coming Sunday.

Ball in Hand:

To put it bluntly, a Jacksonville team that could once at least hang its hat on an ability to consistently pound the football with the run is now completely inept in all facets of offensive football. To win on Sunday, however, the team must return to traditional form, getting Maurice Jones-Drew going early with a commitment to the run and productive blocking from the Jaguar offensive line.

As if Jacksonville wasn’t already putrid enough in the passing department, it’s looking more and more like the team’s top two quarterbacks will be out this Sunday, leaving Bouman as the man. And this projection, assuming it comes to fruition, makes the run game an even more integral part of Jacksonville’s plan to win.

Unfortunately, the Kansas City defense is much more vulnerable against the pass than the run, ranking fifth overall when it comes to containing opposing rushers. Even Houston, which features a dominant ground game, chose to attack the Chiefs predominantly through the air when the two teams battled it out earlier in the season. And this means the Jags will be forced to either play right into Kansas City’s strength or, with a third-string journeyman quarterback at the helm, try to jumpstart a passing attack that has been dormant all year. As for me, I’m not so sure the Jags are capable of successfully pulling off either.

On the Defense:

Fortunately, at least as far as matchups go, the Jaguar defense should fair much better this Sunday than the Jaguar offense. Quarterback Matt Cassel and the Chiefs average just 164 yards passing per game, which should help a well-below average Jacksonville pass defense relax just a bit. Though receivers Dwayne Bowe and Chris Chambers – assuming Chambers plays – are both capable of hurting defenses deep at any given moment, so the Jaguar defensive backs must still perform at a high level.

The Jacksonville run defense, perhaps the team’s biggest strength, will have even more on its plate, however, as the Chiefs rush attack is one of the league’s best, featuring two dynamic rushers in Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones. While Jacksonville ranks 20^th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game, some of the blame for that should fall on the team’s porous secondary, the ineptitude of which no doubt helps open up the field for opposing running backs. Either way, the Jacksonville front seven must bring its best game on Sunday, because stopping the Kansas City running backs is an absolute must if the Jaguars hope to be at all competitive.

When it’s all Said and Done:

As we established above, both the Jacksonville offense and defense will have their hands full, and, to keep my run on metaphors alive, the cards are significantly stacked against both. More than likely without Garrard and Edwards, the Jacksonville offense will have no choice but to commit to the run on Sunday, and the Kansas City defense should have little problem containing it.

On defense, Jacksonville must stop one of the best rushing attacks in the league while also contending with the NFL’s second-ranked punt return unit. And without some big plays from its own kick and punt returners as well as a few turnovers, I have little faith that Jacksonville will be able to defy the odds on both sides of the ball. In the end, the Chiefs will move the ball with good consistency against the Jags while the Jacksonville offense will find sustained drives hard to come by.

Prediction: 24-10, Kansas City

NEWS AND NOTES:

With the injury to Garrard, the Jags have been relatively busy since Monday. For already a second time this season, Jacksonville waived fourth-year safety Gerald Alexander. The move was done to make room for free agent quarterback Bouman, but I’m still confused by how many times the team has second-guessed itself as it concerns to Alexander. We know Jacksonville needs help at safety, so Alexander can either play a role there or not. Yet it’s clear, despite how much they have seen him play, that the Jags simply can’t decide exactly what Alexander brings to the table. And that, for the record, is usually a bad sign, for both the player and management alike.

Jacksonville also finalized a trade with Green Bay that sent safety Anthony Smith to the Packers in exchange for an undisclosed draft pick. Finally, the team signed third-year corner Chevis Jackson, a former third-round draft pick of the Atlanta Falcons.

But getting back to the Smith trade for a second, while I hate to beat a dead horse when it’s down, I’m not sure how it makes any sense to get rid of the most productive player in an already-weak secondary halfway through the season, and for a meaningless draft pick nonetheless. Yet, with my mind already on my LOCKS for this week, I digress.

BEATING THE SPREAD:

Just for kicks, each week I will pick against the spread in my three favorite games, using the opening lines from the USA Today Newspaper as my reference. Feel free to do the same; we can even compete, if you don’t mind losing (Zing!).

So I guess we can just start calling me Mr. 2-1, because that seems to be perpetually where I sit. But seriously, I’ve now lost just one game four weeks in a row, and am still in search of the elusive 3-0, perfect record.

Then, without further ado, I give perfection another try with my Week 7 LOCKS:

PITTSBURGH at Miami, -2.5: Miami is a more-than solid football team, is coming off a big road win against Green Bay, and gets the Steelers at home. With quarterback Ben Roethlisberger back from suspension, however, Pittsburgh very well may be the best team in the NFL and, though I think the game this Sunday will be competitive, I expect the better team to win, and by at least three points.

TAMPA BAY vs. St. Louis, Straight Up: St. Louis may be the most surprising team of the season to date, now a winner of three of its last four games. It was only two weeks ago, though, when Detroit handed the Rams a 38-point road loss, and they will have an equally tough test this weekend when they travel to Tampa Bay to take on the three-win Bucs. If all Tampa needs to do is win, and that is in fact what this weekend’s spread dictates, I’m very comfortable with my chips in the home team’s corner.

NEW ENGLAND at San Diego, +3.5: This is one of those spreads that just doesn’t look right and, therefore, makes the gambler nervous. San Diego has been worse than bad of late – coming off back-to-back losses to Oakland and St. Louis – and the Patriots just got done beating Baltimore, which I think is the probably the best team in the NFL. Oddly enough, the above logic is probably exactly the reason New England is actually getting 3.5 points here and also why most have been scared to bet the Pats. I, however, am going with logic here, and that means New England and the points all the way.

So this officially concludes our Wednesday lesson in Jaguar football. As usual, though, be sure to return to this space on Sunday, as I will have a full game re-cap as well as comprehensive analysis following Jacksonville’s 1:00 p.m. showdown with the Chiefs. Until then, be good and keep reading.

Janovitz can be reached at Scott.Janovitz@gmail.com

The once slowly ascending Jaguars took a fast tumble in front of the nation on Monday night, as the visiting Titans embarrassed the home team, 30-3. It started bad, and quickly got much worse, as Tennessee began the game scoring 20 unanswered points. Both teams played nearly three full quarters of football without their starting quarterbacks – both were loss to minor injury – and the teams threw for just 344 yards combined for the entire game. Of course, Monday’s loss comes on the heels of two consecutive Jaguar victories, and things won’t get easier anytime soon, as Jacksonville hits the road next Sunday to take on the surprisingly good Kansas City Chiefs. Before even going there, though, below I’ve recorded some of my other thoughts from tonight’s misfortune.

-For as long as he was in the game, Vince Young was pretty impressive passing the football, especially on the game’s first drive, and even more so on first down. In fact, the first score of the game came on a 23-yard touchdown pass from Vince Young to Kenny Britt on first down.

-The Jacksonville pass defense was again terrible, and Jacksonville corner David Jones was picked on in a big way all night. Both Young and Kerry Collins, Young’s replacement, had their way with the Jacksonville secondary.

-The injury to Jacksonville backup quarterback Cade McCown just a few weeks ago didn’t seem quite so big then (or maybe it did, because Garrard’s starting job was definitely in question at that point), but it became huge tonight when Garrard when down. Once both quarterbacks were removed from action early on, the game quickly became a battle of backup quarterbacks, and, in no surprise, Tennessee’s Collins won that baby in a landslide (Trent Edwards will never be as good as Kollins is even now in the twilight of his career, but having played in Jacksonville for only three weeks couldn’t have helped).

-Edwards actually looked really good on his first drive, avoiding rushers, extending drives with his legs and making some really nice throws.

-Trailing 17-0 with 35 second left in the fist half, Marcedes Lewis fumbled on the Titan 10. Edwards had looked great up until that point and even a field goal there would have been huge.

-Unfortunately, Edwards started the second half with an interception on Jacksonville’s opening drive. He rebounded pretty nicely, though, and led the Jaguars to a field goal (their first points of the game) on the next drive.

-If you’re wondering what Edwards did next, you should know he led the team back down the field only to throw an interception on 4^th and goal from the Tennessee three. The interception, however, really was his receiver, Tiquan Underwood’s fault.

-The interception Garrard threw early in the game was about as ugly as they come. Just a terrible, terrible pass. It, by the way, gave the Titans the ball at midfield and led to them taking a 14-0 lead.

-Of course, when Collins entered the game, Tennessee’s offensive game plan changed dramatically. With Young, the Titans are clearly a more run-oriented football team. Now the threat to run makes Young and Tennessee a legitimate passing outfit as well, but still not nearly as dynamic through the air as a Collins-led Titans squad. Unfortunately, then, the change in signal callers did Jacksonville no favors, as its defense is far more adept at stopping the run than the pass.

-For a Monday night football game, or really any game for that matter, this one was horribly attended. Those in attendance were loud and animated – so we’ve at least got that – but it is literally pathetic to see so few interested in a team that had actually started to turn things around.

-Again, much like it’s been for most of the season, if Jacksonville did anything well tonight it was battle against the run. Chris Johnson managed to get 111 yards in the end, but much of that came late.

-I say it every week, but man does Maurice Jones-Drew run hard. It’s not a good thought, but how bad would Jacksonville be without the all-pro?

After that loss, I find myself quickly out of steam. And as you well know by now, I will have a complete preview of next week’s contest with the Chiefs published by some time on Wednesday, so be sure to check back then. Until that time, be good and keep reading.

Winners of two in a row and currently occupying first place in the AFC South, the Jaguars have traversed the depths of the NFL only to return to relevance in just two weeks time. Confetti should return to storage, however, as the rest of the South – Houston, Indianapolis and Tennessee – also sit at 3-2, and the Titans certainly plan on claiming conference supremacy, or at least a piece of it, Monday night when they travel to EverBank Field to take on the Jaguars.

The Jags again are fortunate in matchup, as the team’s defense no doubt has more success against run-oriented football teams, and Tennessee is certainly that. Now that doesn’t mean the Titans aren’t explosive on offense; quite the contrary, quarterback Vince Young can be extremely dangerous both rushing and throwing the football and Chris Johnson is arguably the game’s most explosive running back. And the statistics bear proof: The Titans put up 38 points against Oakland, 29 against the Giants, and 34 just last week on the road against the talented Cowboys.

Then, without further ado, we take a closer look below at what should be a stiff Monday-night challenge for the Jaguars.

KEYS TO WEEK 5:

As I alluded to above, on defense Jacksonville must contain the run. Of course, that can be said going into just about any football game, but it’s that much more true when defending the Titans.

On the other side of the ball, Tennessee struggles mightily defending the pass and is just about mediocre when it comes to stopping the run. Its front seven is respectable, though, and will no doubt focus on taking away Jacksonville’s main strength: the run game.

Now let’s take a closer look at how things will unfold, on both sides of the ball.

Ball in Hand:

Unlike some of the NFL’s elite teams, Jacksonville’s offensive game plan is dictated by its own limitations rather than by the opponent it is playing each week. Teams that can attack the Titans through the air surely do, as the team ranks 29^th in the league when it comes to defending the pass. Jacksonville, however, is greatly limited in the passing department and is forced, then, to feature the run each week because it’s what it does best.

Tennessee has been mostly solid against the run, allowing just a single 100-yard rusher this season, though it came last week against a back – Felix Jones – clearly inferior to Maurice Jones-Drew. Jacksonville’s three receiving threats – Mike Sims-Walker, Mike Thomas and Marcedes Lewis – should all find favorable matchups down the field, so the passing game should be explored on a consistent basis.

As is usual with Jacksonville, however, establishing the run against a respectable Titan run defense will be key to scoring points, keeping an explosive Tennessee offense off the field, and winning the game.

On the Defense:

Tennessee is 3-2 this year and, thus far, as Chris Johnson goes so go the Titans. In Tennessee’s three wins thus far, Johnson is averaging 133 yards rushing to go along with two touchdowns. And he’s been consistent on each of these days, rushing for at least 125 yards and two scores in all three games. In Tennessee’s two losses, however, CJ has averaged just 43 yards rushing and hasn’t scored a single touchdown. Notice a pattern?

Simply put, the statistics don’t lie: Receivers Nate Washington and Kenny Britt scare no one and, as a result, the Titans are entirely dependent on the running game. In the end, stop Young and, more importantly, Johnson and you more than likely stop the Titans.

When it’s all Said and Done:

Jacksonville is no doubt feeling good about itself having won its last two football games and, surprisingly, has gotten things more than going on offense, scoring 67 points in the last two weeks after being held to just 16 combined points in the two games prior. Conveniently, the Titans have been pretty generous to opposing offenses, giving up the 14^th-most points in the league this year.

Defensively, the Jaguars have actually competed quite well against the run, and will need to put forth their best effort this weekend against a top-five rushing attack. I expect Jacksonville to move the ball and score some points, but none of that matters if it can’t stop the Titan run game. Furthermore, Young is at his best throwing the football when his team finds success running it, so stopping Johnson is certainly focus No. 1 for Jacksonville.

It may sound a bit simple, but the game should bowl down to which team is stingier defending the rush. Jacksonville is at home and riding momentum, and both factors should definitely count for something, but Tennessee has been the more successful team this year when it has come to both featuring and defending the run. As a result, I think Tennessee’s success in the run department, on both sides of the ball, will be the difference in an offensive showdown under the lights of Monday Night Football.

Prediction: 31-27, Tennessee

NEWS AND NOTES:

From the team: Monday Night Football is coming to Jacksonville on October 18th when the Jaguars host the AFC South Division rival Tennessee Titans at EverBank Field. Jacksonville Mayor John Peyton has declared the day “Teal Monday” in Jacksonville and is encouraging all citizens and companies to show their team pride by attending the game, wearing teal and closing businesses early in time to watch the game.

A number of pre-game events will be taking place in downtown Jacksonville and around EverBank Field leading up to the 8:30 p.m. kickoff. For more information, visit Jaguars.com.

BEATING THE SPREAD:

Just for kicks, each week I will pick against the spread in my three favorite games, using the opening lines from the USA Today Newspaper as my reference. Feel free to do the same; we can even compete, if you don’t mind losing (Zing!).

I’ve got to admit, I’m beginning to get a bit frustrated, as I’ve now finished 2-1 three weeks in a row, and still remain without a perfect, 3-0 week. This one, then, will be all about redemption and my quest for an undefeated performance.

For real this time, I present my LOCKS of the week:

DETROIT at New York, Giants, +11: Last week I called Detroit the league’s best winless team, and it proceeded to embarrass the Rams, 44-6. I’d now call the Lions the best 1-4 group in the NFL and, though the Giants are in the midst of playing some really good football, Detroit is good enough to at the very least keep the game close. Give me the 11.

BALTIMORE at New England, +2.5: New England has had two weeks to prepare for this showdown between NFL elites, and that is unquestionably a huge advantage for a heady coach like Bill Belichick, but that doesn’t make up for the loss of Randy Moss or for the fact that New England’s defense has been well below average this year. With that said, give me the points and the NFL’s best team.

MINNESOTA vs. Dallas, -2: While it’s not a must win for either team, both are still pretty desperate for a victory. The acquisition of Moss has to help and, even in losing, Minnesota has looked better and more competitive than Dallas this year. Plus the Vikings are at home and are giving less than three. Consider me sold.

So, that’s all I’ve got for today but, as usual, be sure to visit this space on Monday night/Tuesday morning for post-game Jaguar analysis and more. Until then, be good and keep reading.

Janovitz can be reached at Scott.Janovitz@gmail.com

What started less than favorably ended on the highest of notes, as Jacksonville came from behind to defeat Buffalo on the road Sunday, 36-26. Thanks to two early turnovers in their own territory, the Jaguars spotted the Bills an early 10-0 lead, but Jacksonville dominated the second quarter and tied the score at 13 by the half. Maurice Jones-Drew and the Jacksonville rush attack controlled the second quarter, while David Garrard and the pass attack too over in the third. Specifically, Mike Sims-Walker and Marcedes Lewis were the guys, as both scored big third-quarter touchdowns and helped the Jaguars seize control of the game. The Jacksonville defense dominated the fourth, and Mr. Automatic, Josh Scobee, connected on three field goals to keep JVille out in front for good. Below are my thoughts from Jacksonville’s big win, its second in a row.

-The Jacksonville defense was pretty solid Sunday, especially the defensive line and linebackers. Remember, the offense – on a fumbled punt and a Garrard interception – spotted the Bills their first 10 points, not the defense. Aaron Kampman was extremely active with 1.5 sacks, and the secondary did a pretty good job limiting the Buffalo passing attack after getting burned deep for a score on a blown coverage early.

-Playing good defense is very much about tackling well and limiting run-after-catch yards. Buffalo’s passing offense consisted mostly of intermediate passes and the Jaguar defense did a tremendous job making the first tackle and limiting Buffalo’s yards after the catch, which was huge overall.

-Garrard had a totally unacceptable interception early – not only was it a horrible throw on a relatively easy pass, but the Jags can’t afford early turnovers like that on the road – but he rebounded nicely and had a very good game. His ability to extend plays with his feet was featured today and he hit Lewis and Walker at some big moments with beautifully thrown balls.

-Jones-Drew was incredible again today, though he did get shaken up late. He had 84 yards rushing and no touchdowns. But with Jones-Drew, it’s about more than the yards. It’s about all the big plays he makes and the tough yards he gets when there isn’t much there. Despite being slowed by injuries, he’s been the ultimate workhorse of late.

-Jones-Drew was injured late, and I don’t think it was serious, but Deji Karim was impressive in his time on the field, especially in the fourth quarter. Karim is quick to the hole and plays aggressive football. He finished the game rushing the ball 15 times for 70 yards.

-Not only is Scobee Jacksonville’s Player of the Year thus far, but it is going to be hard for anyone to catch him. He was five-for-five on field goals today with a long of 49 yards. He’s now 10-of-10 on field goals for the year, and perfect on extra points as well.

-Lewis had his second-ever two-touchdown game Sunday, as he was quite economical with his four catches on the day. He finished the game with just 54 yards, but both of his touchdowns came at big moments and on great plays.

-Sims-Walker finished with just four catches and I’d like to see him be more active, but he showed up when the team needed him most on Sunday. His touchdown late was huge – it gave Jacksonville a 27-20 lead – and he had a few other big catches for first downs late in the game.

Enjoy the huge win, as Jacksonville is now 3-2 and tied for the lead in the AFC South. Things get a bit tougher next week, though, when the Jaguars take on the Tennessee Titans in a huge divisional matchup. As if the game wasn’t big enough, kickoff is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. on MONDAY night. Be sure to check back here on Wednesday for a complete preview of the upcoming showdown. Until then, be good and keep reading.

Don’t look now, Jacksonville fans, but the clouds may really be starting to part. With a last-second, drama-filled win over the Colts in the books and a matchup with the lowly – and 0-4 – Bills on the horizon, Jacksonville may actually have momentum AND a win streak in the works. Of course, it’s early, the team has been far from consistent, and complacency can be crippling (I can’t believe I’m actually mentioning complacency and the Jaguars in the same sentence), but it’s seriously funny what one win in this league can do for a team.

And while I will do my best to keep perspective in my analysis below, there’s no doubt that last Sunday’s win had a serious impact on Jacksonville’s overall disposition and positive mental makeup. Work is a lot more fun when it yields positive reinforcement and even head coach Jack Del Rio recently admitted as much: “There was something special about that win yesterday for us,” said the coach. “We’re excited to get back to work. There’s no question it was exhilarating to be a part of that. It was a lot of fun.”

The tilt with struggling Buffalo, then, couldn’t arrive at a better time, assuming Jacksonville takes nothing for granted. It may come as somewhat of a shock, but in sitting pretty at 2-2 and just one back of Houston in the AFC South, the Jags suddenly can feel OK about their current standing and future prospects.

But that’s precisely why this “gimme” of a game wears the cloak of letdown to near perfection. For all the reasons it should win this Sunday, Jacksonville will have as many opportunities to lack conviction, a reaction to success the team must avoid.

Then again, can the Jags really be complacent? After all, they’ve got two solid wins, sure, but also two 25-point losses. And the import of the moment can’t possibly be lost on Del Rio and starting quarterback David Garrard, two characters with prominent roles on the line.

Anyway, below I will try to make some sense of this relative uncertainty and take a closer look at the matchups Jacksonville will face when it travels to Buffalo this Sunday.

KEYS TO WEEK 5:

The last time the Jaguars beat the Colts at home was in 2006. They won that game 44-17, but went on to lose their next three games and miss the playoffs. Jacksonville’s only other previous home victory over Indy came in 2003, and it followed that win too with consecutive losses. See a pattern?

Still, a matchup with the 0-4 Bills couldn’t setup any better for the Jags. Buffalo compliments its mediocre pass defense with sieve-like run resistance and its proficiency through the air on offense is pitiful by league standards. Now for a more detailed take on how this all adds up:

Ball in Hand:

It wasn’t a secret prior to the 2010 season, and it’s still not a secret now: Jacksonville is at its best when rushing the football and leaves a lot to be desired in its lack of aerial proficiency. The Jags are more then fortunate, then, in drawing Buffalo, as the Bills defense is middle of the road against the pass, and literally the league’s worst against the run.

Though Buffalo cornerback Drayton Florence is more than reliable, the Bills secondary is far from risky to test; between their four starting defensive backs, not a single interception has been recorded this year. Still, with Mikes Sims-Walker struggling as much as ever, Jacksonville is hardly dynamic through the air (though it didn’t allow a single sack last week) and should unquestionably use its strength – the run game – to expose Buffalo’s major weakness – stopping the run.

Now, Del Rio may be no rocket scientist, and probably isn’t a very good NFL football coach either (which is far more relevant, for the record), but he and his assistants are smart enough to use their greatest weapon against what happens to be their opponents’ biggest vulnerability. As such, expect a large dose of Maurice Jones-Drew and, to a lesser extent, Rashad Jennings early, late and with great consistency on Sunday.

On the Defense:

Again, the Jags luck out here in the game of matchups, as their less-than-productive secondary should be out of harms way on Sunday when it faces the NFL’s 31^st-ranked pass attack. Buffalo quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has started his team’s last two games and has been both good and bad, tossing four touchdowns to go along with two interceptions. On the outside, though the Jags can’t be overly confident in how they matchup with anyone, a Buffalo receiving unit led by Lee Evans and Roscoe Parrish hardly inspires fear.

The Buffalo run game, on the other hand, must be respected, as Fred Jackson provides tough, physical yards inside the tackles while rookie C.J. Spiller is a home run threat both out of the backfield and on special teams.

Fortunately for Jacksonville, the Buffalo game plan on offense should play right into its strength. Jackson and Spiller can be dynamic, but if the Jags have found consistent success anywhere on the field this year its been in defending the run. Tyson Alualu, Terrance Knighton, Kirk Morrison and Daryl Smith have been extremely tough up the middle through four games and, if they can maintain that level of play this weekend, a win at Buffalo should be more than within JVille’s reach.

When it’s all Said and Done:

Sunday’s game takes place in Buffalo and the winless Bills will certainly be hungry for their first victory, no doubt viewing the Jaguars as vulnerable prey. Jacksonville, on the other hand, is coming on an emotional, last-second victory over the Colts and history would suggest is prime for a letdown.

I, however, have decided to turn a check to the aforementioned concerns, and instead have chosen to side with logic, talent and matchups. Simply put, the Jacksonville offense should more than have its way with a pitiful Buffalo run defense while the Jaguar D should at least manage to contain a below average Bills offense.

Jacksonville’s defense isn’t exactly dominant, so I expect Buffalo to manage at least some points at home, but the Jaguar ground attack should make things easier on its own defense while much harder for a Bills unit that has given up more points than any other D in the league. In a ball-control, run-dominated affair, I expect the Jags to prevail with some room to breathe.

Prediction: 27-17, Jacksonville

NEWS AND NOTES:

Though the team has made a few meaningless roster moves – signed DL C.J. Mosely, released QB Todd Bouman, and added QB Keith Null – it’s really been a rather slow week.

It is worth noting, however, that Josh Scobee was appropriately recognized for his 59-yard, game-winning field goal last Sunday when he was named the AFC Special Teams Player of the Week on Monday. The dramatic kick, which earned Scobee his fifth Player of the Week honor, was the third-longest game-ending field goal in NFL history. It was Scobee’s seventh career game-winning boot, and actually his third against the Colts.

BEATING THE SPREAD:

Just for kicks, each week I will pick against the spread in my three favorite games, using the opening lines from the USA Today Newspaper as my reference. Feel free to do the same; we can even compete, if you don’t mind losing (Zing!).

For the second consecutive week, I finished 2-1, and am now 7-5 on the year. Below, check out, and enjoy, my LOCKS for Week 5.

JACKSONVILLE at Buffalo, 0: The Jags are coming off a huge victory over the Colts and, as I have thoroughly detailed above, matchup very favorably with the Bills. Not having to give any points makes the Jags an easy pick.

GREEN BAY at Washington, -3: Maybe it’s for a reason and something is actually wrong (the loss of Ryan Grant certainly hasn’t helped), but the Packers have struggled over the last two weeks, losing by three at Chicago before narrowly escaping the Lions last Sunday, 28-26. Call me crazy, but I expect Aaron Rodgers and Company to promptly exit said funk and return to gracefully covering measly, three-point spreads.

DETROIT vs. St. Louis, -3: It may not be saying much, but Detroit is clearly the best winless team in the NFL and has already had chances late to beat the likes of Chicago, Philly, and Green Bay. The Lions will get their first win of the 2010 season at home this Sunday and will cover the three-point spread in doing so.

That’s unfortunately all the time I’ve got for today, but, of course, be sure to check back here on Sunday for a complete recap and analysis from Jacksonville’s 1:00 p.m. showdown with the Bills. Until then, be good and keep reading.

Janovitz can be reached at Scott.Janovitz@gmail.com