The Cardinals have announced their starting pitcher for Friday’s showdown with the Braves.  It will be the veteran right-hander Kyle Lohse, owner of a 118-109 career record and a 4.45 ERA over his twelve major league seasons. Lohse is currently enjoying the best season of his career, with an impressive 16-3 record and a 2.86 ERA.  Lohse has become the master of the two-seam fastball during the last two seasons, using it to pile up called strikes on the glove-side of the plate.  Left-handed batters are left frozen by the pitch, thinking it is going to be well inside before it suddenly dives into the strike zone at the last moment.   Lohse uses the two-seam fastball early and often.  He has the third-highest percentage of first-pitch strikes among qualified pitchers, trailing only Cliff Lee and Jordan Zimmermann.  He doesn’t miss bats very often, leaving him with a smaller margin of error.  But when the two-seamer is working, Lohse has the ability to dominate.

The choice to use Kyle Lohse makes a lot of sense from a match-up standpoint.  The most important hitters in the Braves powerful offense are left-handed, including Freddie Freeman and Jason Heyward.  It all starts with Michael Bourn at the top of the order.  Bourn has game-changing speed, with the ability to steal a base seemingly at will.  Bourn has faced Lohse 35 times during his career, stifling him over and over again.  Bourn has recorded 7 hits over those 35 plate appearances: 6 singles and a double.  That equates to a .206/.229/.235 batting line.  If the Cardinals can keep him from reaching base, they will have a very good shot at winning the game.  I expect to see plenty of two-seam fastballs.

Barring a collapse of historical proportions, the St. Louis Cardinals will face the Atlanta Braves in the National League Wild Card game. Starting for the Braves will be their unquestioned ace, Kris Medlen, but the decision about who should start for the Cardinals isn’t as clear-cut. Adam Wainwright, the staff’s ace for most of the season, is certainly a candidate, but with a 4.88 ERA in 24 September innings, his confidence has surely taken a hit. Surprisingly enough, Wainwright is the owner of a 3.22 xFIP, ranking him third in the National League among qualified pitchers behind only Stephen Strasburg and Cliff Lee. The numbers say that he is a fantastic pitcher and one of the best in the league.

But when all you need is one win, you can throw all the statistics out the window. When the season is on the line, a pitcher can either rise to the occasion, or he can shrink away from the spotlight. It doesn’t matter if he has the best xFIP in the entire world. When confidence is lacking, poor performance always follows. Baseball players are, after all, only human. The Cardinals need to trust a pitcher who has risen to the occasion time and time again: Chris Carpenter.

Although he has only logged a handful of innings this season, he worked his tail off so he could throw even one. Chris Carpenter is a big game pitcher. He knows what’s at stake in the Wild Card round. It’s win or go home, and you can bet that going home is not an option.

Now, it’s possible he could lose, just because luck plays such a huge factor in baseball.  But if he is handed the ball, Carpenter will be ready.  That I can guarantee.

The Cardinals have been carried by their powerful offense this season, and most of the praise belongs to the heavy lifters.  Matt Holliday, Yadier Molina, David Freese and Allen Craig have been crucial to the Cardinals’ success, with each player hitting 19 or more home runs while getting on base at a rate north of .360.  Jon Jay and Carlos Beltran have also provided a ton of value with their bats, while gaining plenty of praise from the media.  Matt Carpenter, however is one player who doesn’t get nearly enough credit for his contributions.

Carpenter will never wow you with his power, and he doesn’t possess a lot of speed.  But the man can hit.  He has posted a .297/.364/.486 triple-slash line this season, which is good for a .850 OPS.  He has been the ultimate “glue guy” in the Cardinals’ lineup, spending time at three of the four infield positions and two of the three outfield spots.  He has given Mike Matheny the luxury of being able to give one of his big boppers the day off without his offense missing a beat.  While Allen Craig and David Freese have both missed time with injuries, Carpenter has been a constant presence. Even though he has accumulated only 1.4 Wins Above Replacement, Carpenter’s versatility and consistency off the bench adds value beyond what his numbers can measure.

On September 4th, it appeared that the National League Wild Card Race was coming down to four teams.  The Braves and Cardinals held down the top two spots, as they do today, and the competition appeared thin.  The Dodgers and Pirates were within 2.5 games, and no one else was within 7 games.   That was eight days ago.  Things can change quickly in this game.

The Padres completed a three-game sweep of the Cardinals today, winning 3-2.  With the loss, St. Louis has now dropped six games in the seven contests since September 4th.  The Phillies and Brewers, meanwhile, have caught fire.  Even though both teams seemingly gave up at the trade deadline, flipping Zack Greinke, Shane Victorino, and Hunter Pence to “contenders,” they are now playing their best baseball of the season.  The Phillies have won seven games in a row, and Milwauke has won 18 of their last 23.  Both of these streaking clubs are now only three games behind our beloved Cardinals, and the Pirates and Dodgers are still very much in the picture.  Over the next three weeks, these five teams will jockey for position and one team will emerge for the right to play in the post-season.  Stay tuned.

In my last post, I talked about a possible solution to the Cardinals’ fifth starter problem.  As of now, that spot is being held down by Joe Kelly.  The right-hander has pitched admirably this season, posting a 3.54 ERA over 89 innings.  A deeper look at his numbers, however, reveals a worrisome trend.  Kelly has posted 6.27 strikeouts per nine innings, which is well below the national league average of 7.64.  His 4.15 xFIP is slightly above the league average of 3.99.  These numbers suggest that some regression is in Average Joe’s future.  While a lot of teams around the league would love to have an average pitcher as their fifth starter, the Cardinals have better options.  One of these options is top prospect Shelby Miller.  Another is the Cardinals long-time ace, Chris Carpenter.

The former Cy Young award winner underwent surgery in July to repair a nerve issue in his shoulder.  The team classified the procedure as “season-ending,”  and Carpenter was optimistic about returning to the mound, be it this season or next.

”I’m past the ‘woe is me part, the here we go again,”’ Carpenter said. ”I’m excited about the outcome I might get. We can get this taken care of and hopefully I can get back out there and be better than I have been in the past.”

Nobody could have anticipated his recovery moving this quickly.  Carpenter threw a three-inning simulated game today, and reportedly felt great afterwards.  The return of a healthy Carpenter would provide a huge emotional boost to the team, not to mention what he brings with his arm.  He is a legitimate ace, recording an ERA under 3.50 during each season in which he has donned the Cardinal red.  His return would add yet another weapon to the Cardinals’ deep and talented roster.  He has his sights set on returning to the rotation before the end of the regular season, which would be just in time to help the Cardinals secure a playoff spot and make another run at a World Series title.

The fifth spot of the Cardinals’ starting rotation is in a state of flux.  The team had hoped that Lance Lynn would lock down that spot, and for a while he was pitching like a legitimate ace.  Over his first 13 starts, Lynn recorded a 10-2 record with a 2.42 ERA.  He was selected to his first All Star game.  His success even sparked a worldwide phenomenon simply known as “Lynnsanity.”  But then the wheels fell off.  In his next 12 starts, Lynn pitched to a 3-3 record with an unacceptable 5.89 ERA.  His inability to retire left-handers (.376 OBP-against) with the same efficiency as right-handers (.283 OBP-against) had caught up to him.  Following a two-inning start on August 24th in which he allowed four earned runs, Lynn was replaced in the rotation by right-hander Joe Kelly.

Kelly is certainly serviceable.  He has demonstrated that with a 3.61 ERA and 3.96 FIP this season.  In my opinion, however, he is a better fit coming out of the bullpen.  Kelly relies on his fastball, throwing it 67% of the time.  As a starter, Kelly’s fastball reaches 93 miles-per-hour and occasionally touches 94.  Out of the bullpen, he is able to amp it up and reach 96-97 miles-per-hour.  This season, Kelly has struck out 15% of batters as a starter and 27% of batters as a reliever.  He can be a serious weapon out of the pen.

When rosters expand in September, the Cardinals’ brass should give serious consideration to calling up top prospect Shelby Miller and immediately inserting him into the starting rotation.  Miller hasn’t enjoyed a great season at Triple-A, at least on the surface.  He is 10-10 with a 4.89 ERA.  The home run ball has been his nemesis.  However, he has done a great job of limiting walks while striking out batters at a high rate.  He has 151 strikeouts and only 50 walks in 131.2 innings.  Since July 20th, Miller has an incredible 57:4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 48.1 innings.  With the way he’s pitching right now, Miller could be just what the Cardinals need to make that push for a playoff spot.  It’s time to see if he’s ready for the show.

Entering this weekend’s important series in Cinncinati, St. Louis trailed the division-rival Reds by seven games in the National League Central.  With the added Wild Card spot in this year’s postseason, the importance of winning the division is that much greater.  The Wild Card “winners” are subjected to a one-game, sudden-death round against each other.  It is essentially a  coin flip to determine who advances.  While the Wild Card round should make for an entertaining day of baseball, it is not an ideal position for a team looking to make an extended playoff run. While a seven game deficit may seem like a large mountain to climb, it is not insurmountable.  After all, the 2011 Cardinals trailed by ten games in the NL Wild Card race with a little over a month left in the season, and that story ended with St. Louis raising the World Series trophy.

The process of narrowing that gap began this weekend, with the Cardinals taking two out of three from the Reds.  Allen Craig had a huge series.  He recorded six hits, including two long balls, and drove in six runs.  Craig has put the Cardinals on his back during the month of August, hitting a robust .370 with 17 RBI in 23 games.

Adam Wainwright has also played a big role in the Cardinals’ recent success.  He was a 20-game winner in 2010, but he missed the entire 2011 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery.  In the first half of the season, Wainwright was still trying to find himself.  In his first 17 starts, Adam was 7-8 with a 4.56 ERA.  Since then, however, Wainwright has dominated his opponents.  In nine starts since the break, Adam is 6-2 with a 2.13 ERA and a sparkling 6.4 strikeout-to-walk ratio.  Opposing hitters are batting a paltry .211 off him since the All Star break.

The Cardinals open up a three-game series tonight in Pittsburgh with Kyle Lohse taking on A.J. Burnett.

The Cardinals dropped a heart-breaker on Sunday, falling to Pittsburgh 6-3 in a 19-inning marathon of a game.  It can be difficult to find positives in a loss, especially in an excruciatingly drawn-out defeat to a division rival, but Jaime Garcia provided a reason for Cardinal fans to smile.  In his first game back from a lengthy stint on the disabled list, Garcia stood on the mound like a beacon of hope.

Two months ago, it was looking like Jaime Garcia’s 2012 season was all but lost.  Through his first 66 innings, Garcia posted a 3-4 record with an ERA of 4.48.  Team doctors discovered some tearing in his labrum and rotator cuff, so they sent him Dr. James Andrews for further inspection.  Season-ending surgery was not out of the question.  Garcia was advised to take the path of rest and rehab, with his return date very much up in the air.  Despite the lingering question marks, manager Mike Matheny remained optimistic.

“There’s so many uncertainties with Jaime,” Matheny said.  ”For him to maybe have a break and come back better than ever, is something I see as a positive.”

I’m not sure that even Matheny envisioned a return as brilliant as this.  Garcia struck out ten batters, a career high, while surrendering zero earned runs through eight innings.  He allowed only five hits and didn’t walk a single batter.  If Garcia can continue his resurgence, his presence will do wonders for the Cardinals’ pitching staff.  In a rotation with four right-handed pitchers, the southpaw Garcia will force opposing teams to adjust their gameplans.  He also pushes Joe Kelly to the bullpen, who will help stabilize a group that has had an up-and-down campaign.  Mike Matheny may have exaggerated a bit with his comments, but if Sunday’s start is any indication, Jaime Garcia has come back better than ever.

After letting Daniel Descalso and Skip Schumaker battle for the second base gig for most of the season, manager Mike Matheny has recently declared a winner.  Sort of.  Matheny told reporters on Sunday that Descalso would start on “most days,” leaving Schumaker in a utility role.

Descalso and Schumaker are very similar players.  They are both left-handed.  Neither player offers much in terms of power or speed.  Both players are average in the field.  Schumaker offers more versatility with the ability to play the outfield, which is one reason why Matheny prefers him to come off the bench.  With the way Skip is swinging the bat, however, he simply needs to be in the lineup every day.

Schumaker has been around the block.  At 32 years of age, he knows what to expect as a big league hitter.  He has shown the ability to draw a walk (11% walk rate compared to the league average of 8%), put the ball in play (14% strikeout rate compared to the league average of 20%), and record hits on the balls he puts in play (.325 career BABIP).  His above-average batting skills have translated this year into a slash line of .314/.389/.423.  He has been the beneficiary of some good luck on his balls in play, as evidenced by a .372 BABIP, but even with some regression he can still be expected to post an OBP north of .350.   With the Cardinals’ potent lineup, it is important that they keep the line moving.  Schumaker puts together quality at-bats and does a good job of setting up his teammates for RBI opportunities.  With Daniel Descalso hitting a weak .234/.312/.332, Mike Matheny needs to give Schumaker more at-bats.  The 25-year-old Descalso might be the Cardinals’ second baseman of the future, but Skip Schumaker needs to be their second baseman of the present.

The Cardinals had the Phillies right where they wanted them as Sunday’s game reached the late innings.  They held a comfortable three-run lead entering the bottom of the eighth, with two reliable late-inning pitchers, Mitchell Boggs and Jason Motte, waiting in the wings to close it out.  However, with three lefties due to lead off the inning, including the dangerous Chase Utley and Ryan Howard, manager Mike Matheny turned to left-hander Marc Rzepczynski for two favorable matchups, at least on paper.  Matheny would soon find out that baseball isn’t played on paper.

Scrabble started out Utley’s at-bat with three consecutive balls, putting himself in a deep hole that he wouldn’t be able to climb out of.  Two pitches later, Utley was standing on first base with a walk.  Ryan Howard then stepped up to the plate, a notoriously weak hitter against left-handed pitchers.  Scrabble started him out with a ball, but was able to climb back into the count by inducing a foul ball followed by a swinging strike.  The next three pitches, however, would sail wide of the plate.  Howard joined Utley on the basepaths, and suddenly the once-comfortable three-run lead felt a lot less secure.  Another lefty, Domonic Brown, was due up next, but Mike Matheny had seen enough of Scrabble’s wild ways.  He turned to Mitchell Boggs to stop the bleeding.

Boggs immediately pounded the strike zone, as if to say to Rzepczynski, “This is how you pitch with a three run lead.”  Domonic Brown struck out on three pitches.  The next batter, John Mayberry, Jr., fell behind 0-2 before flying out to right field.  Boggs was now one out away from escaping the jam.  Erik Kratz stepped up to the plate.  He connected with the first pitch, a 97 mile-per-hour fastball, and lifted it 371 feet into the left field seats.  Blown save, tie game.  Boy, those base-on-balls will kill you.

The Cardinals were unable to muster any offense in the next three innings, and the Phillies walked off with a Juan Pierre RBI single in the bottom of the eleventh inning.  The loss dropped the Cardinals’ record in extra-inning games to 3-8.  They now stand at 62-53, 2.5 games behind Pittsburgh for the second Wild Card spot.