Look at the crystal ball I pulled out last week – all four were correct.  Can the brilliant prognostications continue?  Don’t bet your child’s college fund on it, but let’s see….

Ravens at Broncos – The Ray Lewis farewell tour makes its next stop.  This week, he and his buddies in purple visit the Mile High City with a new sheriff in town, Mr. Peyton Manning.  Suffice it to say that Ray Rice has to hold onto the ball better this week for Baltimore to have a chance.  Joe Flacco can make two throws – deep sideline patterns to Anquan Boldin or Torrey Smith, or checkdowns to Rice.  That is problematic given that Denver has a solid secondary with a couple of ballhawks in veterans Champ Bailey and Tracy Porter.  The Ravens defense was on the field for 88 plays last week.  If Manning runs the offense right this week, he will use methodical drives to tire out the aging defense with a mix of short passes to Eric Decker, Jacob Tamme, and Joel Dreesen, with a blend of Knowshon Moreno running the rock.  This will set up some deep shots to Demaryius Thomas.  Ray Ray makes his last ride.  Denver 30, Baltimore 13.

Texans at Patriots – This is a rematch of a drubbing that New England handed Houston a month ago.  The Pats defense surprisingly held Arian Foster in check, thus forcing Matt Schaub to beat them.  He was incapable then, and I have become suspicious of his ability to lead the Texans anywhere.  Without a play action component where opposing defenses are forced to focus on Foster’s outstanding running ability, Houston would have been 8-8.  At their most effective, the Pats had a very good mix of pass/run this season.  With Rob Gronkowski returning to health, the full arsenal of weapons will be available to Tom Brady.  If J.J. Watt gets in Brady’s face, expect dump-offs to Danny Woodhead and Wes Welker.  When Watt gets doubled, Brady will exploit the Texans’ middle linebacker deficiencies using Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez.  This may prove to be a bit closer than the last time if Houston can keep giving Foster the ball – 40-45 touches would be appropriate…seriously.  New England 31, Houston 23.

Seahawks at Falcons – Seattle played an impressive three quarters last week against Washington.  The Seahawks had the misfortune of losing pass-rushing defensive end Chris Clemons for the rest of the playoffs with an ACL tear.  Atlanta is looking to get Matt Ryan his first playoff victory (in four chances).  The Falcons have a pair of exceptional receivers in Roddy White and Julio Jones.  Seattle features perhaps the best tandem of cover corners in Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner.  This is the most intriguing battle on the field because Atlanta can no longer run the ball with regularity.  Seattle’s offense has improved over the past quarter of the season thanks to allowing Russell Wilson to use his improvisational skills.  If Clemons were playing, I would feel a lot more confident with this pick, but I think Seattle’s defense can fluster Matt Ryan into a costly turnover or two.  Bruce Irvin needs to step up in Clemons’ absence.  Seattle 24, Atlanta 23.

Packers at 49ers – This may end up being the best contest of the entire playoffs.  Aaron Rodgers and a steadily more healthy Packers team (Clay Matthews, Jr., Charles Woodson, Greg Jennings all returned to action within the past month) take their high octane offense against a San Francisco defense that flies all over the field.  Their front seven is especially stout with Aldon Smith, Justin Smith, Navorro Bowman, and Patrick Willis.  It will be a great chess match when the 49ers defense is on the field.  Green Bay’s defense has not been exceptional all year, but they are still opportunistic.  Colin Kaepernick is the best man for the job at QB for the Niners, but not in this game, not now.  How many young QBs lead their team to the Super Bowl in their first attempt?  If Alex Smith were QB’ing this game, I would take San Fran, but Jim Harbaugh made the decision two months ago that the future was now, and it will cost him a chance at the Super Bowl this year, but may have benefit in years to come.  Green Bay 23, San Francisco 17.

Bengals at Texans – Cincinnati is surging, winning seven of their past eight games.  Houston completed a choke job when they needed to win one of their last to obtain home field advantage.  The Bengals score a lot of points for only having one true weapon.  The Texans have weapons all over the field – Arian Foster, Andre Johnson, Owen Daniels – and they will be squaring off against one of the two finest defensive lines in football (along with the 49ers).  Geno Atkins is a beast, but so is J.J. Watt.  I’ll take Houston in a close one, primarily due to the home field advantage.  Houston 24, Cincinnati 17.

Vikings at Packers – Adrian Peterson had one of the most astounding seasons in NFL season.  Returning from a severe knee injury to come within nine rushing yards of surpassing the most hallowed record was unfathomable at the beginning of the season.  The Vikings would need a repeat efficient performance by Christian Ponder for a chance at victory.  Green Bay may not have a running game, but that Aaron Rodgers is an ok quarterback.  The Packers will be furious that they lost last week to take away their opportunity for a bye.  Green Bay 34, Minnesota 21.

Colts at Ravens – This game is brimming with intrigue.  Indy’s head coach, Chuck Pagano, is recovering from leukemia treatments that kept him sidelined the majority of the season.  Rookie QB Andrew Luck had a rallying effect on the Colt franchise.  He makes mistakes, but what rookie doesn’t?  Luck always had the team in games, despite a substandard running game.  Baltimore has slumped after a 9-2 start.  Offensive coordinator Cam Cameron was fired primarily due to not using all-purpose running back Ray Rice enough.  Joe Flacco has had some postseason successes, but has yet to deliver on the biggest stage.  Then, there’s Ray Lewis announcing that he will retire following this season.  Baltimore is buoyed by the emotion of Lewis’ departure.  Baltimore 23, Indianapolis 20.

Seahawks at Redskins – The teams have a lot of similarities.  Rookie QB?  Great running game?  Lousy wide receivers?  Low expectations prior to 2012?  Check.  Russell Wilson and Robert Griffin III will lead their teams in a very interesting matchup.  Washington has its second home playoff game in the last 20 years (which is an indictment of Daniel Snyder more than anything).  The major difference in this contest is on the defensive side of the ball.  If Washington defensive coordinator blitzes as often as he did last week, Wilson has enough athleticism to make the ‘Skins pay with plays outside the pocket.  Seattle should use their rush techniques to come upfield to blitz the run and force the Redskin receivers to beat them.  If they can maintain their gaps, Washington will not be able to rely exclusively on the run.  Seattle 24, Washington 19.

Who would have thought that a Steeler team could be outgained 320-212 by practice squad QB Thaddeus Lewis and the rest of the Browns?  Pittsburgh managed to win 24-10 in this meaningless game, although they spent the first quarter in complete zombie mode.  Perhaps that’s because Pittsburgh had three consecutive losses prior to Sunday.  Perhaps it’s the fact that over 10,000 empty seats were evident with many fans opting to avoid Heinz Field after being ousted from playoff contention last week.  Whatever the case may be, the Steelers sleepwalked through the majority of the first half.  The offense didn’t achieve a first down until the 2nd quarter.  Fortunately, the defense played its typical bend, but don’t break style.  For a change, the D caused four turnovers, including two forced fumbles by Cortez Allen and an interception from Troy Polamalu (his first on the season).

You Win Some, You Lose Some

Winners

Cortez Allen – With two interceptions and three forced fumbles over the past two weeks, Allen has made a name for himself.  He played very well, with Keenan Lewis unable to go more than a quarter and Ike Taylor out.  It will be interesting to see what Steelers management decides to do with contracts in the secondary.  Lewis can become a free agent and Polamalu has a huge salary cap hit in 2013.

Plaxico Burress – Many remember Burress as a sulky receiver in 2004, but he showed a great deal of veteran savvy and can still make great catches using his tall frame.  His 12-yard TD reception with follow-on bows and salute to the crowd was a touch of class.

Holy Turnovers, Batman – Four takeaways and zero giveaways is a good recipe for victory.  (Just ask Cleveland – they turned over the Steelers eight times this season)  Unfortunately, the team only intercepted 10 passes all season.

Lawrence Timmons – the young MLB had two sacks, one forced fumble, and one fumble recovery.  Not a bad day at the office…

Losers

More injuries – Rookies right guard David DeCastro had a stinger and right tackle Kelvin Beachum experienced head issues, which shuffled the O-line again.  Mike Wallace also did not play…so his last potential target as a Steeler was Ben’s costly interception last week.  Heath Miller, of course missed the game after undergoing knee surgery earlier in the week.

Anemic running – Jonathan Dwyer had a team best 52 rushing yards for a total of 623 yards on the season.  Only 3.3 yards per rush today?  That reflects the need for more of a lead dog at RB, and a better run blocking scheme.

Special teams – They’re not so special.  A 35-yard fake punt run by Ray Ventrone allowed the Browns to continue a drive to tie Pittsburgh 10-10 in the third quarter.  At least this resulted in a wake-up call for the offense.

Run defense – 138 rushing yards allowed with no Trent Richardson?  Pathetic.

Total offense – 212 total yards.  Who was Pittsburgh playing, the 1985 Bears?

Draft selection – The Steelers hollow win dropped their draft position from #14 to #17.  It may not mean much because of how the Steelers draft (picking “their guy”), but a team like St. Louis may take “their guy” before he falls to Pittsburgh.

Postseason / Offseason

If you are interested in knowing my playoff predictions, feel free to post a comment.  I will post information as we proceed through the offseason regarding prominent roster moves and opinions regarding Pittsburgh Steeler decisions.

Pittsburgh and Cleveland both limp into the 2012 season finale with wounded players and wounded pride.  The Steelers have lost 5 of their last 6 to be eliminated from playoff contention.  Meanwhile, the Browns had a nice midseason surge to get to a 5-8 record before having double-digit losses to Washington and Denver.  Both teams are suffering from injuries at key positions. Pittsburgh will be without Heath Miller, Ike Taylor, Mike Adams, and perhaps Keenan Lewis. Cleveland has injuries to Brandon Weeden, Trent Richardson, Colt McCoy, Joshua Cribbs, Joe Thomas, and Sheldon Brown.

Ten Fearless Predictions

1.  There will be plenty of empty seats due to the frustration that Steeler Nation feels in this being a meaningless game.

2.  If Brandon Weeden and Colt McCoy are unable to play, Thad Lewis will look like a deer in the headlights with guys like James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley breathing down his neck.

3.  Ben Roethlisberger will rebound from deflating performances against Dallas and Cincinnati.  His final throw in each of these games resulted directly in game-winning field goals by the Steelers’ opponents.

4.  Montario Hardesty will find no room to run.  The Steeler front seven played great last week in run defense (16 rushes for 14 yards).  If rookie Richardson is out due to an ankle injury, Hardesty won’t exactly inspire fear in the Steeler defense.

5.  The absence of Heath Miller will direct Pittsburgh’s passing game to find wide receivers more often.  Miller’s unfortunate ACL, MCL, PCL tears will lead to an exhaustive offseason rehab program for the Steeler team MVP.  This week, Antonio Brown, Mike Wallace, and Emmanuel Sanders will see more targets because Pittsburgh’s backup tight ends (David Paulson and Leonard Pope) are not great pass-catchers or route runners.

6.  Josh Gordon will be the benefactor of a Cleveland perilous QB situation.  Gordon will be targeted extensively on Sunday when Lewis gets in a pinch and is forced to make a throw he is not ready to make.

7. Pittsburgh will use a 50/50 playcalling balance because they want to leave the season taking away good things from both their running and passing games.

8.  Pat Shurmur is coaching his last game with the Browns.  4 wins last year, 5 (possibly 6) wins this year.  A new management scheme is in place, that has promised sweeping changes.  That’s never a good sign for a head coach.

9.  The Steelers outgain the Browns by nearly a 2-to-1 ratio. Pittsburgh has weapons, Cleveland’s are injured.  Tomlin promises to coach no differently than any other week.  All that adds up to a dominant effort…unless Cleveland forces eight Pittsburgh turnovers (again).

10.  Steelers 30, Browns 13.  A blah game that no one will care to watch.  It effectively lowers the Steelers draft pick to the 17-20 selection.

Twas two days before Christmas, when the Bengals came to town

Pittsburgh hoped to get more than one TD from Antonio Brown

In Ben we trusted with our team’s care,

In hopes that the playoffs soon would be there.

Steeler Nation was ready for a big victory, going through the grind

However, visions of the playoffs soon vanished from mind.

Dad was wearing number seven, and I donned forty-three

No longer bringing good luck, they go in the laundry.

There were many chances wasted, as often happens in defeat

Fifty percent through the air, and 95 yards by feet

Neither was good enough to wear out Cincy

Three turnovers put pressure on our Steeler “D”

Six sacks were excellent, best of all year

14 yards rushing allowed?  A victory must be near.

But they had a weapon deployed on the scene

A stud young receiver named A.J. Green.

With 17 targets, surely the DBs would know

Which guy would see the ball on that fateful throw

But, of course the 18th proved to be the coup de grace

It left the home crowd in a state of shock and awe

When out on Heinz Field there arose such a clatter,

I sprang from my seat to see what was the matter.

It was a Josh Brown field goal with four seconds left,

Which left the Steelers dreams entirely bereft.

Forty years ago was the Immaculate Reception

The ultimate tale of 2012 was one of deception.

The players, coaches, fans all believed we were contenders

Instead the eight losses show we’re truly pretenders

The offseason will determine which direction to head

The roster will change and have a new tire tread

We’ll part ways with Wallace and Mendenhall

Can’t pay guys big money who drop the ball

For this year, only one content does remain

A meaningless Browns game is the last refrain

I can imagine many no shows and boo birds who attend

To put a period at this campaign’s bitter end.

My wish for you is to recall fondly the better days

Because this franchise is firmly stuck in a haze

No identity on which to rely, no stars to stand out

Hines, Jerome, and Porter would certainly shout

Merry Christmas to all…and to all a good night.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have a clear path to the playoffs – win two games and you’re in.  The first step occurs when Pittsburgh hosts the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday at 1:00 pm.  The season is on the line, starting now.  Do you think that the crowd will be fired up for this week’s “must win” game against a divisional opponent?  I’ve heard Heinz Field loud; this week will be no exception.

Cincinnati is in control of their playoff destiny as well.  If the Bengals beat Pittsburgh this week, they clinch a playoff position and eliminate the Steelers.  Both sides of the field will be highly motivated to get an all-important “W.”

Ten Fearless Predictions

1.  Andy Dalton will target A.J. Green extensively (10+ times).  This will come as no surprise to anyone.  Green is one of the most gifted receivers in the league.  Keenan Lewis is returning from a hip injury suffered last week in Dallas. Pittsburgh’s top cover corner, Ike Taylor, limited Green to 1 catch for 8 yards in their previous meeting this season.  However, Taylor is still on the mend with his hairline ankle fracture.  Lewis has acquitted himself quite well as a cover corner this season, but Green is a stud WR.  This will be the most telling matchup in Sunday’s game.  (Lewis injured his knee in practice mid-week, and his status is uncertain for Sunday.  This could really sway the game in favor of Cincinnati.)

2.  Pittsburgh will re-emphasize the running game.  It has been said multiple times this week – by offensive coordinator Todd Haley, along with the running backs.  As the Steelers had road wins against Cincinnati, the Giants, and a home win against Washington, there were 100-yard rushers and a 50/50 pass/run ratio.  Rashard Mendenhall is returning from suspension this week (for conduct detrimental to the team).  Isaac Redman is fighting to get into the lineup following last week’s concussion.  Jonathan Dwyer is healthy, so there are plenty of options to tote the rock.  The question becomes – who will make the early play to earn the right to be the primary ballcarrier.  My guess is Mendenhall, who is likely playing his last few games in black and gold.  He will want to show his talents to prospective employers.

3.  Do not expect Steeler skill position players to have the mental lapses that plagued them against Dallas (Antonio Brown’s fumble, running out of bounds saving a Dallas timeout, Mike Wallace’s lack of a tackle on the overtime interception).  Down-and-distance knowledge, ball security, and ball-catching must be at a premium this week for Pittsburgh to have a chance against a Bengals team that defeats lesser teams consistently.

4.  The Cincinnati defensive line will force Pittsburgh into a short passing game.  Geno Atkins, Domato Peka, Carlos Dunlap, and Vontaze Burfict are all excellent players who will harass Ben Roethlisberger, especially considering the flux along the Steelers’ O-line.  Max Starks and Maurkice Pouncey are the only players starting at their original positions, while Ramon Foster has moved from right guard to left guard, and rookies David DeCastro and Kelvin Beachum are newly anointed starters at right guard and right tackle, respectively.

5.  The snow that is expected to fall in the greater Pittsburgh area is due to subside on Saturday, although the gametime temperature is projected to remain chilly – in the high 20s / low 30s.  The field surface was just replaced two weeks ago, so footing should not be an issue.  But, cold hands may contribute to a drop or two throughout the contest.

6.  Troy Polamalu has been increasingly active since returning from his calf injury.  The Tasmanian Devil will line up all over the field in an attempt to confuse Dalton.  At times, Polamalu will bracket A.J. Green, while other times he will act as a fifth linebacker.  There will be multiple occasions when he appears on the line of scrimmage.  The question racing through Dalton’s mind will be…where will #43 be post-snap?  The Steelers need to force turnovers and Polamalu is the catalyst to do just that.

7.  In an attempt to keep Pittsburgh off balance and wear them down, Cincinnati will deploy an early dose of BenJarvus Green-Ellis.  This may surprise Pittsburgh initially (although it happened last game!), but the defense needs to remain cognizant of the downfield passing game.  Play action passes could be a dangerous weapon if Green-Ellis and company achieve early success on the ground.  After all, Pittsburgh’s secondary will be without Taylor (and possibly Lewis).  Cortez Brown, Pittsburgh’s #2 CB this week, could be in the crosshairs of Jay Gruden, the Bengals offensive coordinator.

8.  The game will be lower scoring than most people expect.  I view Cincinnati as a team with a plodding offense with a budding young superstar in A.J. Green. Pittsburgh may have some weapons on offense, but the O-line will limit Big Ben’s time to deliver passes deep downfield.

9.  The extra tension due to the importance of the game will cause each team, and more specifically each QB, to play tight.  The anxiety level will be high in the stands, along the sidelines, and in the huddle for all four quarters.

10a.  If Keenan Lewis plays, Steelers 20, Bengals 17. Pittsburgh has lost four of five, while the Bengals have won four of five.  Those trends reverse in this critical contest.  If this game were at Cincinnati, I’d pick the Bengals.  But, I believe that the groundswell of fan support will be enough to carry Pittsburgh to victory, setting up a sensational final week of the regular season.

10b.  If Keenan Lewis is out, Bengals 24, Steelers 20.  The Steeler secondary will be eaten alive if the top two corners (Taylor and Lewis) do not play.  Cortez Allen, Curtis Brown, and Josh Victorian do not constitute a starting secondary in the NFL, or maybe even the CFL.

The pundits have called for the Pittsburgh Steelers to stand up and make a statement in recent weeks.  Charlie Batch led them to victory in Baltimore, then what was a “sure” home victory against San Diego turned into a nightmarish loss.  Then, we see the true colors of Pittsburgh this week at Dallas.  The team has plenty of weapons at wide receivers, a sturdy front seven on defense, but there is a lack of gamebreaking plays.  There is stalwart quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, who makes absurd moves in the pocket to extend plays.  Earlier in his career, he authored amazing comebacks, but  since the Super Bowl XLV loss to the Packers, the air of invincibility surrounding Big Ben has diminished.  Those late game drives still occur, but it’s not something upon which to rely.  That proved to be the case on Sunday when Roethlisberger threw a game-clinching interception on the opening drive of overtime to set up Dallas for a chip shot Dan Bailey field goal to defeat the listless Steelers, 27-24.

Of course, the game could have been put out of reach if Pittsburgh did not have a costly turnover where a decent drive could have salted away the game.  Antonio Brown fumbled away what would have been a tremendous punt return with less than 10 minutes remaining with a 24-17 advantage.  The Cowboys promptly took advantage of the short field and a lack of secondary coverage to even the game just after the midpoint of the fourth quarter.  The drive was capped by a 3-yard DeMarco Murray TD run.

True to themselves, Pittsburgh had a fantastic opportunity to win the game in regulation with a first down at their own 46-yard line, with just under two minutes remaining.  The offense simply needed 20-25 yards to give Shaun Suisham, who has been automatic this season, a chance at another game-winning boot.  The pass protection, which had been solid throughout the contest, broke down on consecutive plays, resulting in two sacks.  On 3rd down and 26, Pittsburgh’s hopes for a quick strike to finish off the Cowboys had been extinguished.  The late game theatrics ensured and Dallas did not require Tony Romo to pick apart the shell-shocked Steeler secondary for a victory.  The defense used Brandon Carr’s stellar interception and nifty 37-yard return to level Pittsburgh’s record at 7-7.

Despite the hopelessly erratic play of the Pittsburgh Steelers, they control their own destiny to make the playoffs.  Two home wins in the remaining games against divisional rivals Cincinnati and Cleveland would result in either a wild card or, shockingly, the Steelers could still win the AFC North with two wins and two Baltimore losses (vs. the Giants, and at Cincinnati).  Cincinnati looks much steadier than both Pittsburgh and Baltimore right now.

Pittsburgh is 14-0 in the 2012 season.  Seven times they have defeated their opponents, seven times they have beaten themselves.

Loss #1 @ Denver.  Down 25-19 with under three minutes remaining, Roethlisberger gets picked off by Tracy Porter to clinch the defeat.

Loss #2 – Costly fumbles by Jonathan Dwyer and Antonio Brown allow Oakland to stay in the game long enough for Sebastian Janikowski to kick a game-winning field goal as the final whistle sounds.

Loss #3 – Shaun Suisham’s 54-yard field goal attempt is short, giving Tennessee a short field to put Rob Bironas in range for another game-winning field goal as time expires.

Loss #4 – Pittsburgh’s special teams allow Jacoby Jones to score on a punt return, giving Baltimore a 13-10 win.

Loss #5 – Eight turnovers at Cleveland was enough to give the Browns a 20-14 win.  No one wins when handing the ball over that often.

Loss #6 – A thorough lack of effort by all 45 Steelers led to a defeat at home vs. the Chargers.

Loss #7 – Yesterday’s debacle @ Dallas.

The last time the Steelers team was in Dallas was for Super Bowl XLV where the Green Bay Packers came out on top, 31-25.  This will be the first regular season game that Pittsburgh has played in the new Cowboys Stadium.  Both teams enter the game at 7-6, however Pittsburgh’s playoffs hopes are brighter because the number of good teams in the NFC dwarfs those in the AFC.

One short week ago, the Dallas Cowboys faced a tragedy of one of its team members tragically dying in a car accident.  Jerry Brown lost his life in an early morning crash last Saturday as a result of teammate Josh Brent losing control of his vehicle in a single car accident on a suburban Dallas interstate.  Brent has since been charged with intoxication manslaughter because his blood alcohol level was .18 (approximately twice the legal limit).  The Cowboys rode an emotional wave last weekend by defeating the Cincinnati Bengals 20-19 with a late rally.  These are two desperate teams fighting for playoff positions.  It’s time to see who can execute to come out with the all-important victory.

Ten Fearless Predictions

1.  Dez Bryant will play, but his effectiveness will be limited as a result of his broken finger, and superb man coverage by Keenan Lewis.

2.  Pittsburgh’s running game will remain grounded.  Jonathan Dwyer and Isaac Redman will run behind yet another revamped offensive line.  I have always heard that a cohesive unit is the key to an offensive line’s performance.  There are simply too many shuffling parts with Willie Colon being done for the year.  This injury will result in Ramon Foster moving from right guard to left guard, while David DeCastro will likely make his first NFL start at right guard after suffering a gruesome knee injury in the preseason.

3.  DeMarco Murray will be an afterthought in Dallas’ attack.  The Cowboys O-line has failed to open holes all year for a solid young running back.  They rank dead last in the league in rushing.  Pittsburgh’s run defense may not be as stout as it has been in years past, but the front seven will be adequate enough to bottle the Cowboys’ anemic running game.

4.  For once, each of Pittsburgh’s front seven defenders are expected to start together as LaMarr Woodley will make a return to the starting lineup.  The impact will be that Dick LeBeau will attempt to increase the pressure on Tony Romo to cover for the secondary’s deficiencies, with Ike Taylor’s hairline ankle fracture at least a week or two away from health.

5.  After a lackluster effort in all phases last week, Pittsburgh will ride the strength of their gunslinger, Ben Roethlisberger’s arm.  After missing 3.5 games, Big Ben showed some rust in the first half versus San Diego.  He will be in better rhythm with his receivers this week against a young Cowboys secondary.

6.  Jason Witten will be the primary target to take advantage of personnel matchups against slower, smaller linebackers like Larry Foote and James Harrison.

7.  Similarly, Heath Miller will have a field day thanks to injuries at the middle linebacker position.  Sean Lee and Bruce Carter are both out for the year.  Big Ben would be wise to abuse this advantage over the middle of the field.

8.  Pittsburgh will win the time of possession, but not by much.  Dallas features a more vertical passing threat, while Pittsburgh prefers to take more time off the clock.  The Steelers have slumped recently in third down production, which brings on the punt team prematurely.  If Pittsburgh can return to its early season form, it could be a long day for the Dallas defense.

9.  This contest will come down to which quarterback makes less mistakes.  Neither running game will have much success and the scoreboard will show a lot of points and yards by game’s end.  Whoever makes the last costly mistake will lose….and

10.  I believe that Tony Romo will be the one that chokes last.  Don’t forget his dreadful record in December / January.  Steelers 27, Cowboys 24.

San Diego won their first regular season game in franchise history in Pittsburgh, 34-24.  Don’t let the final score fool you…it was not nearly that close. Pittsburgh trimmed the deficit by scoring two garbage TDs after being trounced by San Diego in every phase of the game.

Pittsburgh played about as lackadaisically as a team could possibly play. San Diego is a poor team with a lousy head coach and an overrated quarterback.  Someone tell the folks from southern California that. Pittsburgh made the Chargers look like a model NFL franchise on Sunday.  The gameplan was flawless, the execution was equally brilliant, and the playcalling used a balance of grinding runs that may not have amounted to much yardage, but certainly kept Pittsburgh’s offense off the field.  Then, sprinkle in a few doses of timely passing plays on inexperienced corners and voila – a perfect recipe for a road victory against a team that did not appear to care.

Game-Changing Sequences

Late in the first quarter – SD with the ball, 3^rd and 10 at the Pittsburgh 44 – consecutive offsides by Troy Polamalu and James Harrison inched the Chargers close enough for the game-opening score, a 51 Nick Novak FG with 3:06 remaining in the 1^st quarter.

3:40 in the 2^nd quarter – SD with the ball, 3rd and 1 at the Pittsburgh 39 – Danario Alexander badly beat Curtis Brown on a stop and go route for a 39-yard touchdown.  Brown was in 1-on-1 coverage to allow Polamalu to attack a ball carrier or short passing route.  This 10-0 hole put the Steelers on their heels for the rest of the day. Pittsburgh never recovered.

9 minutes, 32 seconds of hell followed by 12 seconds of something worse – The Chargers marched 78 yards on 17 plays on this triumphant opening TD drive of the 3^rd quarter that deflated the lingering optimism from Pittsburgh’s field goal drive at the end of the first half.  San Diego was 5 for 5 on 3^rd down plays, including a 17-yard run by Ronnie Brown on 3^rd and 13 that was only intended to improve the Chargers’ field goal chances.  Whoops.  12 seconds after this drive concluded with a short Rivers TD pass, Ben Roethlisberger intended a screen pass for Antonio Brown deep in Steelers territory.  This pass was ruled a lateral and scooped up by Quentin Jammer in the end zone for a Chargers touchdown.  The score went from 13-3 to 27-3, and effectively put the nail in Pittsburgh’s coffin.

Approximately 1:00 to go in the 3^rd quarter – SD with the ball, 4^th and 2 at the San Diego 28 –Pittsburgh had gotten within spitting distance at 27-10 and just stopped the Chargers.  The tide was turning, albeit after staggering through nearly three quarters of play.  That’s when embattled San Diego head coach Norv Turner dialed up a fake punt that was the coup de grâce.  Eric Weddle took the direct snap and gained four yards on the play, outracing Robert Golden to the sticks and permanently dulling the Heinz Field faithful’s hopes.

You Win Some, You Lose Some

Winners

Playoff Math – Well, the Ravens and Bengals lost.  So, the playoff hopes are not extinguished.  It’s fairly simple math for Pittsburgh:

• If the Steelers win each of their remaining games, they are in the playoffs (as a 4, 5, or 6 seed).
• If the Steelers win two of their three remaining games (including a win against Cincinnati in two weeks), they are in the playoffs (as a 6 seed).
• If the Steelers win against Dallas and Cleveland but lose to Cincinnati, they could still make the playoffs (as a 6 seed) as long as Cincinnati loses to Baltimore in week 17.
• If the Steelers only beat the Bengals, they still have a chance, but this would welcome in a host of other teams with better conference records…and I simply don’t want to consider the endless possibilities.

There were no players who stood out as winners this week.  This was a total and thorough team loss.

Losers

We Miss Ike – Curtis Brown and Cortez Allen were consistently picked on, especially on third down plays.  It got so bad that Curtis Brown got yanked in the second half. Ike Taylor’s hairline ankle fracture can’t heal soon enough.  Presuming Keenan Lewis will follow Dez Bryant all over the field, who is going to cover Miles Austin next week?

O-Line – There were no holes for the running game until garbage time. San Diego is solid against the run, but Ben Roethlisberger (31 rushing yards) should not be challenging for the team rushing lead by scrambling (Jonathan Dwyer – 32 rushing yards).

Pass Rush – Philp Rivers was sacked one time, and that was a force out by Ziggy Hood.  His offensive tackles were Reggie Wells and Kevin Haslam, who had not started an NFL game this season.  Reggie Wells was just signed off the street this week.  Rivers was sacked an average of three times per game prior to Sunday.

Wide Receivers – Mike Wallace had a costly drop on a deep pass in the second quarter, as did Antonio Brown.  Wallace stated after the game, “I got to catch those. It was a great throw. I tried to reach out, I just couldn’t pull it in. That’s a play Mike’s got to make, a good throw by Ben.”  Brown also should have taken the safety on the lateral that San Diego recovered for a touchdown.  Giving up two points is better than seven.

Third Downs – San Diego was 12 for 22 on 3^rd down plays, while Pittsburgh was 2 for 9 in the first half, when the game was still in question.  Talk about a 180 degree shift.

Field Position – In the first half, Pittsburgh started four of their drives inside their own 10.  If you start out with a long field and don’t convert third downs, you don’t move win, period.

Two-Point Conversions – With the team down 27-9 and 34-16, Coach Tomlin elected to kick extra points.  On each occasion, Pittsburgh (if successful) could have pulled within two scores.  When asked about it during the postgame press conference, Tomlin said that he “didn’t want to put those plays on film” if Pittsburgh was not going to stop San Diego.  Curious…considering he left Roethlisberger and the rest of the first teamers in the game.

Turnovers – None forced…again.  Two more given away (lateral, and Big Ben was later picked off for the first time at home this season to set upSan Diego’s final touchdown).

Another O-Line Injury – Left guard Willie Colon may be lost for the rest of the season with a re-injured left knee.

Bad Losses –Oakland, Tennessee, Cleveland, and San Diego.  Add San Diego to the list of teams going nowhere that Pittsburgh fell to on the 2012 campaign.  That’s not a way to gain momentum for a stretch run.

Playoffs Maybe, But… – I have said this before. Pittsburgh may make the playoffs this season, but look who their likely first round opponent would be – Peyton Manning in Denver, or Tom Brady in Foxborough.  That is not a winning proposition.

The major storyline of this weekend’s battle against the San Diego Chargers is that the offense’s ringmaster, the director of the three-ring circus, Ben Roethlisberger is returning to the starting lineup.  In Big Ben’s absence, the Steelers went 1-2, and would have gone 0-3 if not for Charlie Batch’s courageous performance in Baltimore.  With Roethlisberger behind center, Pittsburgh likely would have gone at least 2-1, but that’s in the rearview mirror.  This team hopes to look forward to these final four games as a springboard for a playoff run.

The San Diego Chargers’ season has quickly unfolded.  They had second half leads in each of their last two games at home – versus Baltimore and Cincinnati.  Both of the Steelers’ divisional foes came back to defeat San Diego, including the miraculous 4^th and 29 reception by Ray Rice, to all but seal head coach Norv Turner’s fate this offseason.

One team looking forward, one team looking at what could have been. Pittsburgh would be best served to not look too far forward and focus on the opponent at hand.

Ten Fearless Predictions

1.  Ben Roethlisberger will be a bit rusty, after being forced to the sidelines in the second half of the Kansas City Monday Night game with shoulder and rib injuries.  He will not be in peak physical condition yet, and has not taken a hit in nearly four weeks.  Big Ben’s QB rating in the game immediately following at least a one-game injury absence is less than 80.0 (5 TDs, 6 INTs).

2.  San Diego will rely on the pass against Pittsburgh.  Their running offense is even more anemic than that of the Steelers (26^th in the NFL), so Philip Rivers will test the secondary without the services of Ike Taylor (for at least a few weeks with a hairline fracture in his ankle).

3.  Troy Polamalu or Ryan Clark will bait Rivers into a turnover.  Polamalu has a history for taking the ball away from the San Diego QB.  With Troy back in the lineup,Pittsburgh’s ability to turn over the opponent improves significantly.

4. San Diego has a stout defense against the run, so Jonathan Dwyer and Isaac Redman will have tough sledding…at least in the first half.  By the second half, Pittsburgh will begin wearing down the Chargers’ front seven.

5. Pittsburgh will dominate the time of possession, relying on methodical playcalling and short third down conversions to maintain drives and keep San Diego off the field.

6.  Antonio Gates will be a non-factor.  As time has marched on, the wear and tear on #85 has become apparent.  In years past, Polamalu would shadow Gates all over the field.  This is no longer a necessity.

7.  Due to injuries at the offensive tackle position forSan Diego, James Harrison and Jason Worilds (subbing for LaMarr Woodley) will wreak havoc all day long with their pass rush.

8. San Diego receivers will have at least one or two big pass plays deep downfield.  Rivers will air it out against Cortez Allen.  (Four months ago, who would have thought that opponents would shy away from Keenan Lewis?)

9.  For once, the Steelers will win the turnover battle.  Many different things lead me to this conclusion:  Ben’s return,Troy’s increasing role, the potential for rain, and a reeling Chargers team.

10. Pittsburgh 27,San Diego 12. San Diego has never won in the Steel City (in 14 attempts).  Sunday will be no different.