Let’s take a quick look around the anti-DH senior cicuit:

Arizona Diamondbacks- Ian Kennedy has an ERA under 4, as of Sunday the next lowest ERA among the starting rotation was …..5.46 by Armando Galarraga. That’s TERRIBLE. If you want to look for rebound potential in the staff, keep an eye on Daniel Hudson. Offensively Kelly Johnson is making last year’s success look like a fluke as he is hitting under the Mendoza line so far. He should rebound to at least mediocrity.

Atlanta Braves- Lowball for Dan Uggla now, clearly he is not a under .200 hitter. As I said on the closer report, Craig Kimbrel’s true value wouldn’t be decided until after he got punched in the mouth. Well he took two to the jaw with back to back blown saves. I suspect he will be fine, so if you own him don’t panic….yet. Just monitor his next couple of outings, and hope he comes back strong.

Chicago Cubs- 247, 227, 196. Those are Carlos Pena’s respective batting averages over the last 3 years. So there is no reason to be optimistic about a turn around to his .159 start. He is what the numbers say he is. Who is NOT what the numbers say are Alfonso Soriano and Matt Garza. Alfonso Soriano is hitting home runs like he is 28 again. Ride him while he’s hot but at 35 he can’t be trusted to keep it up. Matt Garza started out slow but seems to be pulling it together. He should be a good starter the rest of the way. Ryan Dempster on the other hand is officially a question mark. They say he is healthy and his velocity is fine, which means he should figure it out, but I am not holding my breath.

Cincinnati Reds- I told ya’ll Mr. Votto was the truth! (There is also an interesting blog about Votto on the Reds blog page here) Ok now that I finished my victory lap it seems that Jay Bruce may be turning it around. I LOVE this kid, and have been acquiring him in leagues where owners had decided to give up on him. Edinson Volquez is still way too inconsistent for my tastes but he has looked a lot better in his last has two starts.

Colorado Rockies- Ubaldo Jimenez has looked very mediocre to start the season. He should turn it around although you can’t expect him to ever get as hot as he was the first half of last season. Yes Jhoulys Chacin really is good. Carlos Gonzalez’s slow start makes him an obvious trade target. Of course it’s so obvious you may not be able to get a discount at all.

Florida Marlins- Josh Johnson will win a Cy Young someday. More interestingly Ricky Nolasco has been pitching well. It looks like he may finally offer up that quality season owners expected last season. Leo Nunez has been good as gold. Hanley Ramirez has been less than impressive so far, and quite frankly has me a little nervous. His home run total has dropped for three straight seasons prior to this one. I’d still say he is a buy low trade candidate but I’ve slightly adjusted my projections for him downward.

Houston Astros- As of Sunday Brett Wallace was hitting an amazing .382 but his power has yet to come. He may not homer much this season, but the fact that he is figuring out major league pitching is promising for keeper league owners. Carlos Lee, who I believe is finished, bruised his ribs on Sunday. If it turns out to be for any period of time keep an eye out on Jason Bourgeois as the speedster has done well when given the opportunity this season. For years I believed Hunter Pence was not as good as advertised. I have adjusted my opinion some. I think he truly is good, but being in that lackluster line-up makes him a mediocre fantasy option.

Los Angeles Dodgers- Jonathan Broxton is never returning to his dominate self; it is time to let that idea go. Ted Lilly should settle down and be fine at the middle or back end of your fantasy rotation. Matt Kemp is super talented, but he has had prolonged slumps before. Andre Eithier is another fine talent playing above his means. Not that I am saying either should be dealt, but you just can’t expect either to stay at this pace. Jerry Sands has not done much with his first look in the majors. He is someone to keep an eye on though, especially in keeper leagues.

Milwaukee Brewers- Zack Greinke will likely make his season debut this week. I would suggest that owners wait until next week before placing him in line-ups if you have an alternative. While Yovani Gallardo is inconsistent due to command issues he is much better than he is shown so far. When he is right he is an upper level talent.

New York Mets- Ok, I am just going to say it. Chris Young is an elite pitching talent. He proves it every time he is healthy. The problem is his arm is made out of wet toilet paper and can fall apart at any time. In weekly leagues, he should be amongst your first pick-ups whenever he has a 2 week start. I like Josh Thole but the kid better start hitting SOON now that Ronny Paulino is back.

Philadelphia Phillies- The Phillies vaunted rotation has made many overlook how mediocre the bats have been so far. The main missing piece, Chase Utley, may indeed be nearing a rehab stint but the high level of caution combined with the lack of information coming from the organization leaves me doubting that he will return any time soon. Also on the mend is Dominic Brown, who was activated from the DL and sent to AAA. Once he proves healthy, he will likely be brought back to the majors where a logjam of corner outfielders will ensue. Fantasy numbers will likely suffer all around until someone gets hot enough to take control. One of the candidates, Raul Ibanez may be playing himself right out of the line-up with his struggles so far.

Pittsburg Pirates- I thought Andrew McCutchen was slightly overhyped coming into the season. But his early struggles may have transformed him into a buy low candidate.

San Diego Padres- I quite frankly almost fell out of my chair when I saw their TEAM batting average of .213. I think ESPN’s Matthew Berry is a fantasy genius, but I want to fight him for tricking me in believing in Will Venable. In truth Venable may turn it around and Nick Hundley may be worth keeping an eye on in 2 catcher leagues but the line-up is just dreadful. On the pitching side, that thud you here is Aaron Harang remembering who he is and falling back to earth. Because of his spring training injury Matt Latos is still just getting his sea legs under him. It may take him a little while but he will likely be worth the wait.

St Louis Cardinals- Tony LaRussa has been a pain in the booty for fantasy owners for a while now. And here we go again, as he has gone to the dreaded closer by committee. Mitchell Boggs will likely get more save chances then the others, but I’d avoid them all if possible. If you have Lance Berkman do yourself a favor and try to deal that man as he will never keep playing at the rate he is now.

San Francisco Giants- I thought I saw small signs of regression and passed on Tim Lincecum in my drafts, looks like the joke is on me. I should never doubt The Freak. On the other hand Aubrey Huff has been plain bad. Since he hates me, watch Huff start hitting again now that I’ve finally dumped him. Both Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner will be better then they have been until now.

Washington Nationals- Ryan Zimmerman is expected to miss another 6 weeks. His injury is not only crippling his owners but causing problems throughout the Nationals line-up. Their line-up was thin WITH him in, without him they are plain awful. With that said Jayson Werth should come around. I think the change in ball parks and line-up will hinder his numbers, but not to the degree it has so far. And I expect the entire line-up will improve once Zimmerman rejoins them.

                Do you hear it? All of the under-the-breath swearing and collective moans coming from stadiums across major league baseball. What is odd is that these sounds are coming from the fans of teams that are winning through 8 innings. Closers have been coming in, and wins have been flying out.  This alarming trend has been not only been raising havoc in the ballparks, but also causing pain for fantasy owners.

                The truth is the closer spot is always a fluid position. It has a large turnover from year to year. It even has a large turnover within a year. About a third of teams will end the season with a different closer than they started with. For fantasy owners this is a cause of agita, but it also can be looked upon as an opportunity. If you need saves, you can almost always find some floating on the wire.

                The other complication that comes with closers is that saves are, in many ways a product of luck. Don’t believe me? Brian Fuentes lead the world in saves in 2009. David Aardsma was tied for 4^th in the AL. Speaking of 4^th in the AL, last season that would’ve been the great closer Kevin Greg.  Four saves behind him a guy you may have heard of, Mariano Rivera.

                So what is a fantasy owner to do, other than prey to the fantasy Gods? Well first thing to do is access the closers you have now.  Your next move is dictated by your analysis. If you have a solid closer that struggles for a game or two or just hasn’t been getting save opportunities, I’d say the best bet is to just keep the faith. Sometimes saves come in bunches. If you’re stuck with a mediocre or below closer you should scour your waiver wire for an upgrade.  And no matter where you stand, always look to steal a top closer who has hit a rough patch from a fellow owner. Remember fantasy baseball is war, so there is no pity for the opposition!

Now let’s break down the closers:

Coming into the season you had 6 elite.

Mo Rivera: Still elite.

Nefi Perez: Still elite.

Heath Bell: Still elite, although I am a little worried he may be dealt near the trade deadline.

Carlos Marmol: He will have his bad moments, but still elite.

Brian Wilson: The beard is back, still elite.

Joakim Soria: Soria came into the season as my favorite of the elites considering that you could draft him rounds later than the others.  He has been getting his saves, but has been shaky. I still consider him elite, but you probably need to keep an eye on him.

The ones you can trust…for the most part

Chris Perez: He was good last season when he took over as closer, and has been great this season. The only thing that stops him from being elite is the lack of track record.

Jose Valverde: Some years he’s the bad Valverde, this year he has been the good one. Ride him while he’s hot.

Craig Kimbrel:  He has probably been the best closer in baseball so far this season. We just need to see how he responds after he finally blows a save, assuming he ever does.

JJ Putz: He seems to be back in 07’ form so far. But don’t forget he has been injury prone since his last dominate season as closer four years ago.

Francisco Rodriquez: The Mets are bad, but K-rod has looked good. (Keep in mind he just isn’t the same elite pitcher he used to be).The big question is how many save opportunities will he get.

Jon Papelbon:  To me he is the mirror image of K-Rod. Solid, but has slipped from elite status. He is also on a team that hasn’t given him much chance to collect saves. There is good news and bad news about the rest of his season. The BoSox will soon be winning again, but closing in the AL East isn’t easy.

Guys you can trust…for now at least

Leo Nunez: He has been solid and seems like he may be coming into his own.

Francisco Cordero: He has pitched ridiculously well so far this season and has had a great career. Still it’s hard to see how he can keep it up. He had been trending downward, is getting older and his home stadium is one of the toughest on pitchers.

Jonathan Broxton: He is still the closer and has been getting his saves. Still he looks closer to the pitcher the evil Broxton that ended the season then the guy who was amongst the elites in the game. If I had him I would be afraid.

Jordan Walden: He has been absolutely dominant since taking over as closer. The issue here is what exactly happens if he blows a couple of games? Does Fernando Rodney get a chance to regain his spot? Hopefully Walden makes these questions moot.   

Jose Contreras: He has been very good as a closer. He of course is just holding the spot for Brad Lidge who may be out to the allstar game.

Houston Street: Whenever he’s healthy, he’s good. So far, so good. If you choose to believe in him for a season you have a stronger stomach then I do.

Guys you can’t trust……Yet

Joel Hanranhan: He started the season dominant for the Pirates, but has been getting hit a bit as of late. Bottom line is he is a mediocre closer on a team that is mediocre at best.

John Axford: He has closer stuff, was very productive last season and was a sleeper pick of mine coming into the season. He has not been good so far. You still have to love his upside, and the fact that the Brewers seem to be sticking with him, but he has given you many reasons to worry.

Andrew Bailey: Brian Fuentes has actually been pretty good holding down the spot for Bailey, but the job seems to be Bailey’s as soon as he comes back from a forearm injury in a couple of weeks. I consider Bailey, Houston Streets twin as far as being effective whenever healthy.

Kevin Gregg: I don’t care how many teams make this guy into their closer, he is not very good. As I said, saves are built on luck, but this guy will likely be exposed at some point.

Kyle Farnsworth: He seems to have taken over the closers role for Tampa and has done well. The problem with that is he has seemed to be fragile mentally throughout his career. I don’t think things have changed. Ride him while he’s hot but be afraid….very afraid.

JUST A MESS:

Matt Capps/Joe Nathan: Actually as far as messes go, this is a shiny one. Matt Capps is a solid closer who now holds the closer role. Joe Nathan was a special closer who is coming off of injury. Both are good pitchers. The problem is, when or will Joe Nathan take his job back? It’s almost impossible to tell. If I had to guess, I’d think Nathan gets back the closer role near the all-star break. But that is just a guess.

Brandon Lyon: Houston is horrible and Lyon is average at best.

Jon Rauch/Frank Francisco: Rauch has the closer role and has been effective. But the better fit is likely Rauch setting up Francisco. I think this eventually will happen.

Brandon League/David Aardsma: League has done a decent job holding it down for Aardsma. Aardsma himself is not nearly an elite closer and Seattle is terrible.

Sean Burnett/Drew Storen: Bullpen by committee is not good for fantasy. Young Storen is the keeper though. And he got the save today.

Ryan Franklin/Mitchell Boggs/Jason Motte: Ryan is outta there! Maybe the only time he has heard that all season with an ERA over 9. Reading the tea leaves, as Tony LaRussa has not revealed his plans, it seems Mitchell Boggs may get a crack at closing. Boggs has been very effective out of the bullpen, so he may be a good one. But there is also a chance that Franlin gets his job back. 

The Chicago White Sox calamity: Who ever though Ozzie Guillen would miss Bobby Jenks. 1 save in 7 chances for the Sox so far. Matt Thorton was given first crack a closing and has 4 of those blown saves. I think Chris Sale will be given the next chance but I, much like Ozzie may be doing, am simply picking a name out a hat.

                Don’t worry, I UNDERSTAND.  It’s the first week of the season and your team is already sitting in last place. In fact your team is doing so bad that you are sure the other owners are plotting to kick you out of the league. After all the pre-draft work and the feeling of post-draft glow THIS is the result!! All you can do is look at your team and just mutter, “Why are you guys so bad????”.

                Step off the ledge folks. If you really have no answer for what your team is doing in the cellar, then the answer may be that it shouldn’t be there. The baseball season is a marathon, not a sprint. Don’t let a bad week corrupt your thinking.  Losing an early battle, doesn’t mean you’re going to lose the entire war. The only way you lose a season in the first week is if you panic and do something silly.

                Kevin Youkilis will hit. Alex Rios is better than he has shown so far. You should NOT give up on Jay Bruce. Francisco Liriano is not finished. The Boston Red Sox will not go 0-162.

                This is the time of the year that everyone attempts to make that “big” move to turn their mediocre team into a champion. Hopefully, you had a better then mediocre team as soon as the draft ended. And if you did, you should be looking more at tweaking your team, then finding a savior. The truth is for every Jose Bautista there are 55 Jonny Gomes picked up. Don’t be one of the fools that drops a Dustin Pedrioa for a hot hitting Freddy Sanchez.  Only in a handful of cases should your pre-draft player stat projections have changed.  For the most part, you should keep the faith. Slumps and streak are part of the game, do not over emphasis what happens at the start.

Now, with that said you certainly should look for a free agent or two. The early season is a good time to find a hot free agent. And it’s an even better time to pick off fellow owner’s panicked stricken drops.  Just be wise about which players you get rid of yourself.

                Here’s what I suggest. Any player that you drafted in the first half of your draft should be kept for at least a month. If they are not injured and /or their role on the team change, then believe that in them AND your drafting ability. If they continue to struggle bench them for a hot hand, but keep patient.

                Now contradicting what I have just stressed, here are a couple of guys to be alarmed about:

Phil Hughes- Coming off a so-so at best second half of 2010 he has been horrible in his first two 2011 starts.  Worse yet, his velocity has not been there. Hopefully, it is simply a case of an early season “dead arm” but injury is certainly a possibility. 

Edison Volquez- Now there is reason to believe that he is just trying to regain his form after tommy john surgery, but there are a couple of things to worry about. Seven walks in his first 11 innings is especially alarming for someone coming off an elbow injury. In addition the fact that he is also coming off of a PED suspension also raises doubts if he will ever get back to his peak ace levels.

Fernando Rodney- Never believe a manager who says a closer will get his job back after he straightens himself out. The reason for this, if a new player, say a Jordan Walden, now has a chance to take control of the job.

Ian Desmond- Now, I still believe the kid will be something special, and it may indeed be this year. But he has been demoted from the leadoff spot down to the 7th in the line-up. This will clearly hurt his run totals.

Tsuyoshi Nishioka- Out for a month with a broken leg.

Manny Ramirez- Just retired as I am typing this. It is believed he failed another PED test. Regardless of the reason, drop him off your team immediately.

                The hot corner is a bit of a hot potato this year.  The players moving in and out of the position could make you dizzy. Jose Bautista, Martin Prado, Kevin Youkilis, Chone Figgins and even the evil Jhonny Peralta all will be able to claim a number 5 on your fantasy team’s defensive slots.  This turns out to be very useful as it propels third out of the shallow end to deeper waters. So fear not generals, 3^rd base will not be as difficult as Short stop to fill.  

Potential sleepers: picks that you may be able to get later or cheaper in cost relative to potential value.

Potential busts: picks that will likely be draft earlier or cost more then their actual fantasy value.

1)      Evan Longoria- He may be more of a 25 then 30home run guy, but still a good shot to hit .300 with over 100 RBI’s.

2)      Ryan Zimmerman- I expect a bit of an increase on 2010, but not quite 2009 totals.

3)      David Wright- 2008 & 2010 totals say he may be the top 3^rd baseman in the game. 2009 stats and 2010 strike out totals say you should doubt his consistency.

4)      Alex Rodriguez- Dude is 35 and I hate him. With that said if he stays healthy 2010 numbers are probably the low end you could expect of him.

5)       Jose Bautista- Hard to believe he can repeat his 2010 but even 30% drop leaves him among the elite.

6)      Kevin Youkilis- he may not start with 3^rd base eligibility in your league as he was a 1^st baseman last year. (If you want more info on him check my 1^st base recap.)

7)      Adrian Beltre- His contract year got him paid by Texas. Last time he got a big contract he followed it up by being horrible. I don’t expect that to repeat, but I do expect a slight dip from 2010.

8)      Aramis Ramirez- A rebound is almost guaranteed, the question is how much?

9)      Casey McGehee- Home runs and RBI’s may slip a little but with no name value he may still be a value pick you can grab late.

10)   Pablo Sandoval- Made for the fantasy risk takers. Kung Fu Panda can bounce back….or get bounced from the line-up. With that said he came to camp in great shape and signs are pointing up.

11)   Michael Young- Talent wise he is top 8, but the signing of Beltre looks like it may limit his at bats.

12)   Martin Prado- see 2^nd base review.

13)   Chone Figgins- see 2^nd base review.

14)   Pedro Alvarez- Another risk/reward pick. His high k rate is alarming, but he may give you a cheap 2-30 homeruns.

15)   Mark Reynolds- Immense power, but expecting a batting average above .250 is really pushing it.

16)   Ian Stewart- at 16 solely due to his power potential.

17)   Chase Headley- double digit home runs with teen steals.

18)   David Freese- Ankle woes destroy his 2010, he has potential to be solid in Ba, runs and RBI’s but you can’t expect much home runs or steals from him.

19)    Chris Johnson- he is looking at 50% more at bats, 50% more statistics would look pretty good.

20)   Alberto Callaspo- Likely closer to 2009 than 2010, still not too exciting.

Unlike their double play partners, the shortstop position is very light with the stick. You have 2 superstars, and 1 more player who if healthy is elite. As for the rest, uggh. The fact that the #4 selection is Derek Jeter, who is aging and coming off the worst season of his career tells you all you need to know. You can certainly win a league without one of those front line shortstops, but you’re likely going to do it with a significant hole in the middle of your fantasy team.

Potential sleepers: picks that you may be able to get later or cheaper in cost relative to potential value.

Potential busts: picks that will likely be draft earlier or cost more then their actual fantasy value.

 1) Hanley Ramirez- The best shortstop in the game looked almost human last season. He seems inline for a bit of a bounce back but even if he doesn’t he is still best of breed at short. He’ll be a top 5 selection in most drafts.

 2) Troy Tulowitski- If he stays healthy he can be as good as Hanley, but his track record makes that a big if. So he stays in the #2 slot, and is a likely top 10 selection in drafts.

 3) Jose Reyes- An even bigger, bright red “if” then Tulowitski, drafting him is asking for a headache. But he is so much more talented than any of the other shortstops after him you might as well just stock up on aspirin.

 4) Derek Jeter- Rather shockingly the clear cut #4 shortstop after last year’s debacle of a season. But the truth is he remains as safe of a play as any shortstop not named Ramirez. Plus, I expect a bit of a bounce back for the Yankee captain.

 5) Alexi Ramirez- Remember what I said about Ramirez’s? .280 15/15. Book it. His consistency has been undervalued in early drafts in my opinion.

 6) Jimmy Rollins- He’s fading but should easily outpace his 2010 stats.

 7) Elvis Andrus- .265ish with 30plus steals.

 8) Ian Desmond- His horrible fielding doesn’t mean much in fantasy. He has a ton of potential.

 9) Stephen Drew- Forget about the mythical breakout season, he is what he is.

 10) Rafael Furcal- Constant & consistent health issues leaves him 4 or 5 slots below his talent level.

 11) Juan Uribe- At 2^nd base he’s an afterthought, at short he is a sleeper pick.

 12) Asdrubal Cabrera- Last season was too freaky to be repeated, so he reclaims his sleeper status this year.

 13) Starlin Castro- He far exceeded what could’ve been expected from the youngster last year, I fear a sophomore slump.

 14) Marco Scutaro- Aging, dropping in the order and his replacement is already on the team. But he is still a professional hitter who is likely to get steady at bats, and in that line up that should be a big deal.

 15) JJ Hardy- Bat has some pop, and his home games will be in Baltimore.

 16) Yunel Escobar- He has plenty of potential, the Braves didn’t seem to think he’d put it together, and I tend to agree.

 17) Alcides Escobar- The Royals will give him every opportunity to succeed.

 18) Eric Aybar- Minor League statistics say improvement is coming.

 19) Miguel Tejada- He is done, but still a top 20 shortstop.

 20) Reid Brignac- Low teen homeruns are possible.

     While the top 5 2^nd baseman get all the press, and rightfully so, the position is amongst the deepest in the MLB in 2010. Consistency reigns supreme even as you drop down to the lesser options for your fantasy team. Better yet, there are also some late upside type players that you can stash away on your bench just incase they put it all together. Only first base has a bigger assortment of fantasy relevant players. So when drafting I will surely impose one of two strategies. Either I will go early and grab one of the big dogs at 2^nd base, or I will just wait and pick up the still meaty scraps at second later in the draft as I fill other positions first. Even in the deepest of leagues I doubt an owner can be shut out of a decent pick up here.

Potential sleepers: picks that you may be able to get later or cheaper in cost relative to potential value.

Potential busts: picks that will likely be draft earlier or cost more then their actual fantasy value.

1) Robinson Cano- Just in case you thought Cano got lucky in 09’ he stepped his game up even higher in 2010. No reason to doubt he can repeat those numbers, but you are going to have to pay steeply for the honor of having him do it for your team.

2) Chase Utley- While father time waits for no man, papa seems to be actively out to get Chase. Thumb and hip injuries hindered his 2010 season and this spring training his knee has been an issue. I leave him ranked here, because when healthy he is as good as they come at second. But the reality is that he now going in later rounds for owners who are willing to take their chances. If you do draft him, do it only after the other top 2^nd baseman are off the board and you better draft a back-up plan.

3) Dustin Pedroia- Unless you hear that he has an issue with his foot expect him to round right back into 2009 form.

4) Dan Uggla- His batting average was unusually high last season so a regression there seems likely. Power numbers should hold and possibly increase now that he is a Brave.

5) Ian Kinsler- This man can match up with any 2^ndbaseman in the game. And unlike the other top bats at second he can run too. The problem is you can’t hit or run from the disabled list. High risk/high reward thy name is Kinsler.

6) Brandon Phillips- His stats slipped in 2010, he has a horrible stolen base percentage and is completely miscast as a lead-off hitter which kills his RBI chances. But he is a second baseman that will likely go 20hrs/20sb, so stop your complaining!

7) Rickie Weeks- He put it all together in 2010 like the scouts had said he would. He is certainly inline to do it again but prior to last season he was Kinsler-esque in his visits to the DL.

8) Martin Prado- Nothing suggests any slippage from last years numbers, and he will likely be eligible for 2^nd, 3^rd, and the OF by mid-season. Still color me weary, as I think he may be slightly overvalued on draft day.

9) Kelly Johnson- If you pay for last years numbers you’re likely overpaying. But if you get him at a discount you may be smiling to the bank. Some regression in almost a certainty but if others expect his stats to fall off a cliff make your move.

10) Chone Figgins- If Figgins is your primary 2^nd baseman then your asking for trouble. Then again he couldn’t possibly be as bad as last year…could he? Over 30 steals is a lock and I expect this year he will fall somewhere between 09’ and 2010 statistically.

11) Aaron Hill- I am trying not to take his abysmal .205 average last year personally but I know he did it to me on purpose. How else does a prime age hitter lose 65 points on his batting average? Expect a batting average rebound, as well as a slight up tick in runs and rbi’s.

12) Brian Roberts- I like him as much as I’ve ever liked a beating up, often injured, aging no power having hitter ever. Which means I am luke warm on him as best. If healthy he can give you .280 25sb’s. You just can’t expect him to stay healthy, still you could do worse.

13) Gordon Beckham- He has shown flashes but is yet to put it all together. He could be this year’s Rickie Weeks….or this years Greg Jefferies. Yeah I said it! His numbers after the break suggest good things are coming.

14) Ben Zorbrist- His .238 batting average and the fact that his stats dropped dramatically last year may cause owners to overlook what his overall stat line was last year. 10hrs/ 24sb/ 77runs/77 rbi’s. Not bad at all

15) Howe Kendrick- Not surprisingly Kendrick is near the middle of our second baseman report because mediocrity they name is Kendrick! With that said he will not hurt you.

16) Neal Walker- His major league stats all surpassed his minor league numbers which makes me skeptical of a repeat. Still at 25 it is possible.

17) Mike Aviles- Rumor has it, that Aviles may bat leadoff for the Royals. The talent is there for a solid average, 10hrs and 15-20 steals.

18) Tsuyoshi Nishioka- The Japanese import has the Twins believing, and I tend to believe in the Twins scouts. He’s projected to be their number two hitter, and that will be a good spot to produce numbers. With that said, outside of Ichiro Japanese imports have rarely duplicated their success in the Western Hemisphere.

19) Jose Lopez/Eric Young- If either of these guys actually win the Colorado 2^nd base job outright they will likely be stat stuffers. Young would supply pure speed, while Lopez has shown quite a bit of pop in his bat for a 2^nd baseman.

20) Bill Hall- Can supply you power at zero cost.

Others to keep an eye on

Omar Infante

Dustin Ackley

Sean Rodriquez

Danny Espinosa

     Although 2010 may have been the year that pitching once again took over the Earth, one position held on strong. The mighty men at 1st continued to flex their muscles and rip the cover off the ball. So it should not be a surprise that 1^stbase will likely produce 3 of these guys will go in the first round, including consensus #1 pick Albert Pujols. But unlike other positions first base is not simply front loaded. It is by far the deepest offensive position in the draft. So even if your strategy is to grab other positions first you can still pick up a solid bat here later in the draft.

Potential sleepers: picks that you may be able to get later or cheaper in cost relative to potential value. 

Potential busts: picks that will likely be draft earlier or cost more then their actual fantasy value. 

1) Albert Pujols- If baseball players were Gods then Albert would surely be Zeus. He is the man among men. Now if I wanted to negative I might point that 2010 was not quite the season 09’ was. Or I might mention that he has had 3 straight years of decreased OPS, but I’d rather not get hit by a lightning bolt. Truth is even if he has faded it’s been so slight that he is still clearly the overall #1 pick.

2) Joey Votto- Some may have been surprised by Votto last year, I was not. Ok, maybe the MVP season was even beyond my faith in the coming of age youngster. Will he do it again? It’s a tough year to match but all signs point to Votto really being this good. I’ll keep the faith.

3) Miguel Cabrera- As much as I have a man crush on Votto, only Miggy’s arrest keeps him from my #2 spot. He is the one with the proven track record. I suspect the arrest will be a non-issue and you can expect Cabrera duplicate his numbers of last year.

4) Adrian Gonzalez- The extreme improvement in line-up and ballpark can push the already stellar Adrian into rare air. But off season surgery and league unfamiliarity keeps him a notch below my top 3. I wouldn’t be terribly surprised by a slow start but by the end of the year his stats should be elite. Keep an eye on the health of his shoulder. 

5) Mark Texiera- Speaking of slow starters, his Aprils are notorious. Last year, his whole season was alarming with a 40 point drop in batting average and 60 in on base %. With that said, to expect anything less than .275-35-110 from Tex just seems foolish.

6) Ryan Howard- An ankle injury seemed to zap some of his power numbers last year. I expect that his power will return with his health. For those in league impacted negatively by k’s be warned, those are likely to return to previous highs as well.

7) Prince Fielder- Last year’s down season has me nervous. While I do expect something of a rebound I can no longer place him next to the Gonzalez’s & Howard’s of the league. But if you are a believer in players putting it together in a contract year, you may have found your man.

8) Kevin Youkillis- A thumb injury cut his 2010 short. He was expected to be at 100% prior to spring training. If he is healthy, he is a model of consistency who will gain 3rd base eligibility soon.

9) Adam Dunn- He pulls an Adrian Gonzalez this season, moving to a better line-up and ball park. Over the years his consistency has been just silly. So much so I have a hard time expecting much more even with the new surroundings.  Expect more of the same, and  you may end up pleasantly surprised.

10) Kendry Morales- A freak injury derailed his 2010 season which was on a pace frighteningly in line with the year before in runs, RBI’s & batting average. The one blip was a .80 drop in slugging % because of an equally frightening drop in doubles. The verdict: If healthy expect more of the same in most numbers, although a slip in home runs seems plausible.

11) Justin Morneau-The fact that he started camp behind the others because of a concussion that happened mid-season last year is concerning.

12) Billy Butler- Someday those doubles will turn into home runs, I hope he’s on my team when it happens.

13) Paul Konerko- Probably too old to repeat last year, although preseason last year most would’ve said he was too old to have the 2010 he did.

14) Aubrey Huff- I have never believed in this guy, and he continues to prove me wrong.

15) Gaby Sanchez- Solid hitter, just don’t expect a power surge anytime soon.

16) Freddie Freeman- I always believe in 2 teams prospects, the Rays and the Braves. With that said remember he’s only 21.

17) Adam Lind- Expected to play 1^st for the Jays this year he showed signs of returning to form late last year.  Top 12 potential.

18) Michael Cuddyer- His value took a huge hit in Minny’s new stadium.

19) Derrek Lee- He will likely rebound some, but at 35 how much of a bump can you expect.

20) Ike Davis- Solid rookie season could be built upon.

21) Carlos Pena- Power and K’s.

Some youngsters to keep an eye on:

Justin Smoak- Don’t forget just how highly this guy was thought of just last year. He was the centerpiece of the Cliff Lee deal.

Brett Wallace- Immense power potential.

Kila Ka’aihue- Anyone named Kila must be watched.

Matt LaPorta- This maybe his last year to prove his worth.

“who’s on first?” Abott & Costello

     Fantasy sports, particularly baseball, has a bit of a randomness to it. You can do all your homework, analyze players, adjust for risk/reward potentials, be more prepared for the draft and work harder all season long then your co-owners…..and still not win. It’s just the way fantasy sports is. All of the work you do is only to give yourself the best odds of winning. Nothing is guaranteed. The fantasy gods produce slumps and career years at a mere whim. It’s all part of the game. But by far the most traumatic bit of fantasies randomness is injuries.

     Injuries raise havoc on every fantasy league in every fantasy season. Although you can shy away from injury prone players, your team will still fall victim to some kind of injury during the season. There is no avoiding it. But before the season, on draft day, injuries are something that can be worked to your benefit. Analyzing injuries, just like analyzing stats is a big advantage on draft day. Knowing when a player will return and if he’s likely to return at 100% is as valuable as crunching stats. Knowing who to target at a discount can get your team valuable cheap help. Conversely, avoiding players who aren’t likely to heal may be crucial to your teams success.

     Not surprisingly, the best thing to do is to get constant updates on injured players. Each injury is different. Each player is different, and their recovery will surely be different. Updates on the individuals should be your main guide in determining a players recovery. But with that said, my years of following baseball as a fantasy zealot has shown me some trends.

     When a pitcher is rehabbing from an elbow injury reporters will often offer information about the pitchers velocity returning to normal. While that of course has importance, with elbow injuries location is a better indicator of recovery. When the pitcher is able to snap off that strong curve or nasty slider without fear he is officially back. Any reports of forearm issues are a huge red flag, as that is often connected to an elbow issue.

     Because of the high recovery rate of Tommy John surgery fans of Adam Wainwright and Stephen Strasburg can have faith that they will return at 100% sometime next season. For this years draft, if the reports stay good, I expect Joe Nathan to possibly start slow this year but be back to his old self by mid-season.

Rotator cuff surgery/torn labrum/shoulder problems-

     The rotator cuff is actually four tendons and the neighboring muscles that stabilizes the shoulder. Because of the amount of muscles and tendons involved in the area there is a huge range of possible injuries, and recovery times. You MUST look at each case initially. In fact most rotator cuff injuries are not treated with surgery but rather rest and rehab. But when faced with rotator cuff shoulder surgery pitchers do not have the same rate of sunny outcomes as elbow surgery. Quite often pitchers will never regain their previous form.

      Here velocity is a huge indicator. While pitching is much more about location then absolute velocity, if a pitcher does not have their normal  pep on the fastball their job gets harder. Even a small decrease in speed can cause dramatic results on effectiveness. This is especially problematic for power pitchers. Extra velocity causes the hitter to decide on a pitch earlier, and that in turn makes off speed pitches more effective. If the hitter has even the smallest of additional time to react it makes a world of difference. Be wary of all shoulder problems. Also take note of any pitcher who has a bicep or tricep problem as this may indeed be a sign of a shoulder problem.

     I have not seen a report of Brandon Webb’s velocity this spring, but last years mid 80’s highs will simply not cut it in the major leagues. At the moment I see no reason to draft him.

      Johan Santana should be an interesting case. He seems to be following the Pedro Martinez career arc. He was originally as dominant as they come. Then slowly lost velocity, but remained a top flight pitcher because his game was based on pinpoint location as mush as velocity. Any who saw Pedro’s run with the Philly’s, saw a man who still knew how to get someone out with what was basically a high school fastball. I believe Johan could have similar success. With that said, he won’t be more then a waiver pick up for me near the all-star break at most. More likely I won’t pick him up at all, but will watch his late season starts to see if he is a late round flier in 2012. It’s never too early to look ahead my friends!

     The unfortunate injury to Domonic Brown has brought this injury back into focus. I can think of three cases of this injury. Gary Sheffield in 2007, Ryan Zimmerman in 2008 and Troy Tulowitski last season. All came back pretty quickly and hit well. The one ingredient missing for Sheffield and Zimmerman were a temporary power outage as both had homerun totals dip. Tulowitski as anyone who watched had an amazing September hitting 15 home runs in the month. But it must be noted that his first 100 plus at bats upon return only provided 3 homers. Domonic Brown was not exactly ripping the cover of the ball prior to the injury so the immediate future of this prospect is certainly in doubt. Hopefully he will eventually bounce back like those 3 did.

      Remember, always track injured players and pay close attention to how they are recovering. Stack the deck in your favor and hope the fantasy gods shine their light on you.

“ You start chasing a ball and your brain immediately commands your body to ‘Run forward, bend, scoop up the ball, peg it to the infield,’ then your body says, ‘Who me?’”
Joe DiMaggio

     For most of baseballs illustrious past the middle infield positions (Catcher, 2^nd base & shortstop) had been secured by defensive minded specialists. Good hitting was considered more of a luxury then a requirement. Slowly but surely things changed. Lands once reserved for golden gloved slap hitters were sacked and looted by young brawny sluggers. The Louis Castillo’s of the world rendered obsolete as the Dan Uggla’s took over. Offense is what’s sexy now. Must I remind you that chicks do indeed love the long ball? Position by position these offensive aggressors seized control until only one defensive stronghold remained, the catcher. And it is here, today, at this position, that the final battle between offense and defense begins. 

     Poetics aside, the catcher position is being infused with young top of the line offensive talent. If this new batch of backstops pan out, catcher may lose it’s permanent “position scarcity” status it has maintained for years in fantasy circles. With that said, about half of the MLB still starts catchers that wouldn’t get past Double A ball if they were forced to play any other position. Combine this with fact that no position is more injury prone and you still have reasons to worry. 

So with no further ado, the catcher rankings: 

Potential busts: picks that will likely be draft earlier or cost more then their actual fantasy value. 

Potential sleepers: picks that you may be able to get later or cheaper in cost relative to potential value. 

1) Joe Mauer (MIN)- Mauer didn’t quite have the season many hoped for in 2010. Especially disappointing was his home run totals which fell to single digits.. Still he keeps his status as the top fantasy catcher. A batting average around .330 with 90 plus RBI’s & runs are not unreasonable projections. Although expecting more then 15 hrs may be pushing it. Keep an eye on his knee as he has been getting injections in it this spring. The twins are saying it’s a non-issue.

 2) Buster Posey (SF)- I am typically not high on hyped up rookies or sophomores, but everything points to Posey being legitimate. He’ll be sitting in the heart of the Giants line-up, so big RBI & runs totals seem likely. Most likely the average will hold up too. The only question is where the home run totals come in. Is he a legit 30 hr hitter like his rookie season suggests? I think he may be, but I won’t be expecting it this season. 

3) Brian McCann(ATL)- The super consistent McCann had a slight dip last year. But at the prime age of 27 and with Dan Uggla in the line-up to protect him a rebound seems likely. 

4) Victor Martinez(DET)- V-Mart has been one of the best hitting catchers in the league for years. But a couple of things do seem worrisome. His batting average was 60 points lower on the road then at Fenway Park. His slugging % split was even worse, down 136 points on the road. This is particularly concerning being that he’s moved from somewhat cozy Fenway to the expansive Comerica Park when signing with the Tigers. On the bright side his use at 1^st base and DH in Detroit will likely help him stay healthy. History says he is too consistent to bet against. Expect his 2011 numbers to fall somewhere in between his 09’ & 2010 totals. 

5) Giovany Soto (CUBS)- Soto’s great rookie season set-up a perfectly disappointing sophomore campaign. The second year disappointment helped make his year 3 rebound a pleasant surprise. I suspect year 3 was when the true Soto stood up. 

6) Carlos Santana (CLEVE)- His minor league stats and brief major league appearance scream “Superstar”. His lack of track record makes me weary. Is he this years Posey….or this years Matt Weiters? I suspect he is indeed more Posey but I wouldn’t want to pay close to that asking price. Keep an eye on his knee as he is coming off an injury that shortened his 2010 season.

7) Miguel Montero (ARI)- Last year was supposed to be his breakout season. Injuries instead broke him. Is this his year? Maybe. But his 2009 numbers look most reasonable to me, maybe downgrading the batting average a bit. 

8) Kurt Suzuki (OAK)- He was a disappointment in the first half of 2010, and a disaster in the 2^nd half. So there is a legit reason to be nervous drafting him. Still at age 27 a rebound seems likely. 

9) Mike Napoli (TX)- Traded twice in the summer he finally ended up in Texas. But he is still in a bit of limbo. Right now he is expected to play dh, but the problem is a cornerstone of The Texas Rangers named Michael Young is still on that team, without a position to play. If Young gets dealt and Napoli gets the full-time dh duty he can easily slip into the realm of the top five fantasy catchers. If the situation turns into a log jam the slippage goes the other way. What is for sure, given the at bats he homers and strikes out with the best of them. 

10) Matt Weiters(BALT)- Coming into the 09’ season his buzz was comparable to Buster Poesy & Carlos Santana rolled up into one. 2 years later he looks like he will never be a star. With that said some progress in year 3 seems reasonable. 

11) Yadier Molina(STL)- Molina is not going to surprise you much. He is more valuable in real life because of his superb defense but fantasy players could do worse at the position. His batting average should step back up a little, everything else stays as is. He may even steal a handful of bases for you. 

12) Jorge Posada(NYY)- Typically DH’n will help a catcher, not so much here. To many Yankee vets will have to “rest’ at the DH spot to expect him to get an increase of at bats assuming the front office keeps their word on keeping Jorge from behind the plate. Batting average seemed abnormally low last year but at 39 it’s hard to expect much of a bounce back. 

13) Carlos Ruiz(PHI)- I have a hard time believing he will repeat that 300 average. Still .275 is solid for a catcher. 

14) John Buck(KC)- His career year brought him a big deal. I smell slippage. 

15) A.J. Pierzynski(CHI-A)- Looks like a slow fade, so expect less of the same. 

17) Chris Ianetta(COL)- Ianetta has huge home run and RBI potential but his B.A. and k’s are killers. 

18) J.P. Arencibia(TOR)- You CAN NOT let him be your #1 catcher, but his 32 minor league Hrs puts his upside in orbit. 

19) Miguel Olivo(SEA)- His second half of the season was alarming, his move to Safeco silences my interest. 

20) Yorvit Torrealba (TX)- Move to TX could mean a spike in stats, but a spike in those numbers may not mean much. His name looking so close to “terrible” to me may be a sign. 

21) Ryan Doumit(PIT)- Playing time? 400+ at bats probably means a possible .260-15-50 and muti-position eligibility. 

 22) John Jaso(TB)- Batting average is likely to be respectable. If he stays high in the line-up he has a chance to produce decent numbers minus power. 

23) Nick Hundley(SD)- Likely the primary catcher in san Diego a 12HR & 55 RBI seems plausible. 

24) Rod Barajas(LA)- No mysteries here 

25) Josh Thole (NYM)- The chance of him hitting .300 is legitimate. Unfortunately his lack of other stats is likely legit too. 

26) Hernadez/Hanigan(CIN)- Time share limits both, but Hanigan is the one with the upside. 

27) Alex Aviles(DET)- even with V-mart there, he’ll get his AB’s. Quality AB’s is another question. 

28) Chris Snyder- He will pop some homers, but likely less than last year moving to a worse ballpark. His starter status despite his near .200 Batting average is a testament to his glove work, and an indictment on Doumit. (Did I really say Doumit had top 10 potential???) 

29) Jason Castro(HOU)- COME ON SON!!! 

30) I-Rod/Ramos/Flores(WASH)- psst hey Washington deal someone. Ramos is the upside pick here. 

31) Jarrod Saltalamacchia(BOS)- Maybe his numbers lie and he isn’t terrible. Oh wait fantasy is ONLY about the numbers. 

32) Lecroy/Kotteras(MIL)- Platoon. Kotteras has the upside and he hit .203 last season. 

 Jesus Montero(NYY)- Everything says future offensive star but I’m not convinced it’ll be this year with the impatient Bombers. If things (named Russell Martin) break right he could make a big impact this season. 

Hank Conger(ANA)- Everything says future offensive star but I am convinced it won’t be this year with the very patient Halos. He’s most likely a year away. 

Taylor Flowers(CHI-A)- the fact that his hype is slowing before he even has a major league job is a bad sign. 

“You have to have a catcher because if you don’t you’re likely to have a lot of passed balls.” Casey Stengel

      As I said in part A of this installment of FBIW, these different sources offer much of the same information. There is no real right or wrong choice. Determining which site or magazine you want to use as your draft guide is as much about feeling comfortable as anything else. The more comfortable you feel at this base level, the more likely a championship will arise from the foundation. I suggest that you take a look and sample a variety of resources before you settle on a choice.

Here is a breakdown of some the major fantasy sites:

(note, this is based on my personal knowledge of the sites in the past, and a BRIEF check on what they have done this year.)

cbssportsline.com: This is one site that I know well. It has a free downloadable kit. This site is solid and has gotten better in recent years. Cbs does not have the bells and whistles that some others may have, but you certainly get more then what you pay for.

espn.com: In my opinion espn’s claim of being “the world wide leader in sports” is a sound statement. They are top of the line. But a good deal of their info is reserved for espn “insiders”. There is only a limited amount of information that you can acquire without being a paid subscriber.

msn.foxsports.com: First, let me admit, I may be the last one to know. I quite honestly had swore them off years ago. They are back in play now, with tons of free info. A lot of it is from rotowire.com, who I will discuss momentarily.

mlb.com : Uses Bloomberg for it’s draft kit and tool & is priced at $19.95. Mlb has made HUGE strides in their fantasy info over the last couple of years and I have heard nothing but good things about the Bloomberg draft kit.

Rotowire.com: Ahhh in one word EXPANSIVE!!! You have to pay a premium price, but you also get premium information. You can get a basic draft kit for $14.99 which also includes updates for 6 months or for those who want even more they offer a “draft tool” at $39.99. The draft tool is a whole other level of information. It’s quite simply amazing. With that said, I have enough confidence in my own research and analysis skills that I will not pay that cost, but it would be hard to fault anyone who does.

Rotolab.com and Rotoworld.comalso offer similar tools to rotowire and fully stocked with top notch knowledge to unfurl onto the willing consumer. In fact rotoworld.com & rotowire.com may have been separated at birth, and who doesn’t love twins.

yahoo.com : I believe they are still rolling out their draft kit. Yahoo has gotten somewhat better in recent years and is rich with free information. With that said Yahoo is not a site I will likely use as my primary source of information, but will assuredly check out as a secondary option.

      There are scores of other sites that I have not listed here. If none of these do it for you rest assured that you will be able to find others quickly with a web search. Maybe if you’re old school like myself, you may opt for a fantasy magazine. Again there are a plethora of beauty is in the eye of the beholder options. Simply go to your local book store or magazine stand, explore and then throw them a dime. Just remember while your deciding, that fantasy baseball is indeed war my friends. Choose your weapons well.

 RIP- Fantasy sports magazine & fanball.com- I will miss you both always

“Baseball is 90% mental– the other half is physical.” yogi berra