The World Cup trophy resides in Spain, South Africans are back to normal life (except for hosting the Tri Nations Rugby Tournament) and many people are reflecting on the month-long soccer love-in and wondering what comes next for both FIFA and South Africa.

First FIFA – With all the controversy around goal/no goal, I think FIFA will have to adopt replay technology for 2014 in Brazil. Let’s face it – it’s too bloody hard to score a goal in World Cup competition to have it taken away because the referee wasn’t watching or had a bad angle.  The technology exists, is already used in soccer, and there’s no excuse not to use it.

The one thing FIFA did well this year was make money. Look for the targets to be set even higher in Brazil. Several industry publications estimated that the World Cup  2007 and 2010 generated over $1.6 billion in sponsorship revenue. That’s billion with a “B.” It is also estimated that Visa paid $170 million for its 2007-2014 rights, and Emirates Airline paid $195m. From what I saw on the ground in South Africa, I’m not sure Emirates exploited the relationship fully, but Visa absolutely did. Fans were wise to leave their MasterCards at home as all of the fan shops and all of the venues only accepted Visa. Fan parks and public viewing areas were branded with Visa signage and their tagline, “Go fans” was everywhere.

I suspect FIFA will have to re-examine its ticketing structure, however. It was too difficult (and expensive) to transfer/re-sell tickets according to their strict rules and in at least one instance (Japan vs. Paraguay) about 1/3 of the stands were empty. The luxury suites probably didn’t sell as well as FIFA hoped either, with many of them dark on game days. This is particularly an issue when fans are trying to project where their teams will be playing and purchase tickets in advance. British fans planned on England winning its group and when the US did, Brits were stuck with tickets to Rustenburg that American fans so desperately wanted. I am hoping that FIFA makes ticketing a lot more fan friendly four years from now.

In terms of hosting, South Africa set the bar very high for Brazil. It completed all of the stadiums and infrastructure work on time and with the exception of a few glitches early on with traffic and parking, the tournament ran very smoothly and safely. Security was tight and it showed. Like South Africa, Brazil faces challenges with crime, but it can take a lesson from this year’s hosts.

South Africa can take pride in successfully hosting an amazing tournament with no major problems, and it truly was the entire country that worked to welcome its guests. Despite all of the predictions of gloom and doom, crime and even terrorist activity, South Africa came through with flying colors.

The nation is at a very interesting time right now. The economy just received a huge boost but there are worries that a recession will now follow. It must work hard to maintain the momentum that the World Cup generated and attract repeat visitors and foreign investors. I’m guessing that South Africa will also begin work on another Olympic bid quite soon. It proved it can host an international tournament so an Olympics would not be a stretch.

All in all the World Cup was a wonderful event. It was a credit to South Africa that less than two decades after a fundamental shift in its government and society, it could host the world. Now if I can just get the buzz of vuvuzelas to stop ringing in my ears, I’ll be all set!

There is only one question going through the minds of millions of passionate soccer fans around the world; who will win tomorrow’s World Cup final? Popular opinion will say most probably Spain, the Spanish believe they already have won and the Dutch, happy to be considered the underdogs, are trying to be quiet about the whole thing. Where I stand on all this, is where things are actually standing.

The first important factor to note in this game is that the Dutch will most likely be using the same formation that Germany used against Spain in the Semi Finals, the 4-2-3-1. Defensively they are almost identical to the Germans; the Dutch possess two wing backs that like to get forward, two relatively slow but big center backs, and two defensive midfielders in front of the back four. Also like the Germans, the Dutch like to play as wide as possible with Robben and Kuyt hugging the touch lines when the Dutch have possession.

But there are some important differences. The Dutch aren’t as defensively sound as the Germans are but they are much stronger, in my opinion, everywhere else. The defensive midfielder duo of Van Bommel and De Jong are in another league compared to Schweinsteiger and Khedira; Schweinsteiger is practically Van Bommel’s pupil at Bayern Munich. Instead of Trochowsky on the right, the Dutch have Robbin, one of the most dangerous players in the game. Ozil is a very promising player, but Sneijder in his role is already well established and his vision and range of passing is second to none. Kuyt is one of the most underrated players in the game; he is always where he should be and gives essential balance to the Dutch side, a balance that enables Robbin to roam free without defensive responsibility. Van Persie might not be as prolific a goal scorer as Klose is, but he’s definitely more mobile and can hold on to the ball.

Now let’s take a look at how both Spain and Holland match-up:

Seeing as the Dutch will be employing the same tactic as the Germans did against Spain, they may very well succumb to the same problems that caused the German’s downfall.

1) Outlined by the blue rectangle, the Spanish outnumber and press the Dutch in the area where the Dutch’s offense initiates. However, contrary to the German duo of Schweinsteiger and Khedira, Van Bommel and De Jong don’t ever have the intention of holding on to the ball when they get it; all they really want to do is lay the ball off as quickly as possible to their play-makers. There really is no better way of overcoming initial pressure then giving a quick pass forward. Van Bommel and De Jong have the ability, more often than not, to give that kind of pass even under pressure.

2) Outlined by the blue circle, Villa, like against the German center backs, has a considerable speed advantage compared to the Dutch’s two center backs. It wasn’t so much a factor in the German game because Germany were stuck in their own half, which left little room for Villa to exploit and run in behind the defenders. However, in tomorrow’s match, if the Dutch do get forward then Villa’s speed could be a factor. At the same time, Van Persie’s speed could cause problems to Puyol and Pique at the other end.

3) Outlined by the purple rectangles, many analysts have been saying that where Spain can be really effective is when Iniesta faces Van der Wiel on the right (Dutch right) and when Pedro faces Van Bronkhurst on the left. However, I find this opinion completely misinformed from a tactical perspective because of the formation the Dutch are employing. If and when the Dutch’s wingbacks are beaten they will still have to deal with a midfielder who comes to help, on the right it would be Van Bommel and on the left it would be Kuyt. As a result of this extra coverage, Spain creating space on the outside will only free them up for a cross and with the height advantage the Dutch posses they shouldn’t have any problems; Puyol’s heading goal came off a corner, you won’t find him in the box during live play.

4) Outlined by the yellow cirlce, another problem that the Germans faced was their best playmaker, Ozil, getting tightly marked by one or two of Spain’s midfielders, Xabi Alonso and Busquets. The last time Busquets had to mark Sneijder,  Inter Milan had an historic win over Barcelona and went on to win the Champions League for the first time in 50 years. Having no choice but to mark Sneijder, which is far more difficult than marking Ozil, could very well leave Capdevilla alone to handle Robben (Black rectangle); that’s the equivalent of leaving your kids home alone with a blow torch.

The last match up is that of Kuyt and Ramos. I don’t expect Ramos to have much effect going forward; there is a reason as to why the new Real Madrid Manager, Jose Mourinho, doesn’t want Ramos playing on the outside anymore. You probably won’t find Kuyt taking Ramos on one on one, but he knows how to get wide and exploit the spaces; there will be many with Ramos pushing forward.

Therefore, the Dutch have the characteristics to deal with most of the problems that the German’s were unable to deal with in their game with Spain. Together with the fact that the Dutch are more capable of possession will thus enable them to test the Spanish back-line on more occasions.

If the Netherlands are able to keep the game at a low score, which is possible against what is the least of pragmatic sides, their offensive stars of Robben, Sneijder and Van Persie could make the difference. If Spain keep the ball as much as they did against Germany and shut down two of the World’s most dangerous players, they have ever chance as well.

The outcomes of the match-ups I have outlined, will ultimately determine who wins the match.

Prediction: The Netherlands were my pick to win the World Cup; I won’t back down now.
Netherlands 2-1.

I find it almost amusing to discover many people shocked or surprised at Germany’s elimination. An older soccer colleague of mine told me that Germany wouldn’t win the World Cup; he explained half jokingly, with a little reference to the two World Wars, that Germany traditionally starts strong but often can’t finish.  There is indeed much wisdom and truth in that statement; Germany always have the power, organization and discipline to go far in tournaments and even win sometimes. However, in the latter stages of the World Cup, Germany’s grit and determination has often proved insufficient against teams that are technically superior than they are: against France in the Semi Finals of 1958, against Italy in the Semi Finals of 1970, against Italy in the Final of 1982, against Argentina in the Final of 1986, against Brazil in the Final of 2002, against Italy in the Semi Finals of 2006 and today, once again, against Spain in the Semi Finals.  The question many might ask is: if Germany were able to “Blitzkrieg” through both England and Argentina, why were they so ineffective against Spain?

Where Germany’s attack and counter attack begins to develop is through their two central midfielders: Schweinsteiger and Khedira. Both England and Argentina failed to put pressure on these players, and as such, gave Germany the freedom to get forward easily.

Look at how much space England gave Schweinsteiger:

Schwinsteiger in yellow - Ozil in blue.

Not only do they not pressure Schweinsteiger, they leave Ozil alone to roam free between the midfield and defensive lines. Moments later, Germany would get their opening goal.

Here is another example:

This time, England gets caught and Germany fly on the counter attack and put the game beyond reach.

Argentina had the same problem. Here is one of the many examples of Argentina giving Scheinsteiger way too much room to manoeuvre:

Schweinsteiger in blue

In today’s match I expected Spain to have most of the possession and Germany to sit back and resort to counter attacks; but, I also anticipated Germany having problems in trying to take off on those very counter attacks that had made them so successful up until the Semi Finals. Surely enough, Germany were unable to take off and counter the Spanish like they wanted to. The reason why they had so many problems in doing so is rather simple; the Germans were outnumbered and pressed by the Spanish in the area where Germany’s offense originates, the area of Schweinsteiger and Khedira; where England and Argentina erred, Spain was perfect.

Here are two great examples:

Because of this pressure, Germany gave too many balls away and had a really hard time getting out of their half; Germany don’t possess the technical ability to navigate through tight spaces.  Germany, having to spend most of their time chasing the game, got worn out as the game went on. It was only a matter of time before Spain would find their winning goal.

If you haven’t heard the controversy about the bad calls this year by World Cup referees, you may be just as far behind in technology as the whole FIFA organization.

At the top of the list of teams who are speculated to have been eliminated because of an obvious referee mistake is England, who scored a goal that bounced from the top post straight down into the goal. The ball was immediately swooped up and thrown out of the goal by the keeper from Germany. The closest referee was 10 yards down the line, and apparently he nor his assistant saw the goal and no goal was awarded. According to the cameras set up at the post, that ball was at least a foot behind the line. But, what the referee says is what goes, even if 40,000 people and a hundred cameras witnessed otherwise.

Heavy controversy is also surrounding fellow eliminated team Mexico, who is angry about the a goal scored against them from Argentina’s Tevez while he was clearly in offside position. Although the replays were shown across the stadium proving otherwise, the referee didn’t call the offside so the decision was made to allow the goal. (Since that instance of angry fans, FIFA has said they will now stop showing replays in the stands).

FIFA president Sett Blatter spoke to the press in a briefing on Tuesday, apologizing to the organizing bodies for England and Mexico and their soccer teams, saying there were mistakes made last Sunday in terms of officiating as both of those teams were eliminated. In the process of that apology, Blatter pointed to the future and the possibility of new technology coming into play.

In his statement, Blatter put it simply, “It is obvious after the experiences so far we have made in this World Cup, it would be a nonsense to not reopen the fighting for technology in the business meetings. The only principal were are going to bring back for discussion is the goal line technology.”

This statement doesn’t mean much for teams like Mexico (or the United States for that matter) who had blown calls against them due to fouls and offsides. It also won’t help the teams that had controversial red cards against their players and goal keepers. That element of the game will still be at the mercy of the referee, even if cameras from every angle prove the calls are bunk. But, by keeping the replays to a minimum we are still allowing for a naturally flowing game with good momentum and a healthy dose of human error. Controversy and debate is one element that keeps soccer alive. Without it there would be no press, no angry fans, and no passion.

Personally it pained me to see United States get the goal thrown out against Slovenia that nearly cost them a chance into the finals, with a call that was so unclear even the referee himself would not explain. But they persevered nonetheless and proved they were the better team in that match (and what a comeback!). As much as I wanted to write about it there seemed to be no point of yelling “no fair!” because they came back and proved they could get there either way. Taking a look at England, it was a shame that the goal was disallowed, but it wasn’t as if that disallowed goal made their fate. Germany cleaned up and proved to be the better team with a 4-1 win.

In the end when we look at who is sitting on top, it doesn’t have to do with one red card or one disallowed goal. It all comes down to one thing, right now, at this moment in history: which soccer team will beat the odds to go home with the World Cup.

The World Cup knock-out phase was full of surprises and the teams going into the quarterfinals have a lot of work cutout for them.

Brazil shutout Chile to maintain a strong showing, but Spain sent Ronaldo and Portugal packing. It took penalty kicks for Paraguay to send Japan home. Germany defeated England in a match that sent shockwaves through the British and Argentina beat Mexico to bring Maradona that much closer to running naked through the streets if his team wins. The Netherlands maintained their perfect record while Ghana yet again dashed the USA’s hopes of making it to the quarterfinals. Uruguay rounds out the field.

British fans were banking on winning their group and playing Ghana in Rustenburg, so when the USA finished in first, there was a scramble by England fans to offload their tickets and Uncle Sam’s Army to mobilize and make the trek to the rural stadium. Most fans of African teams united behind the Black Stars, who had an unusual home field advantage.

In extra time Ghana scored and the USA’s dreams ended. Ironically, it was the second World Cup in a row in which the Black Stars sent the Stars and Stripes home. The British didn’t do well against Germany, making England, France, Italy and Portugal the European disappointments. Spain rebounded from an early poor showing to advance with a lot of positive momentum.

Quarterfinals begin Friday! Stay tuned.

Tonight the USA takes on Ghana, Africa’s lone representative still standing in the World Cup tournament. Suddenly, it seems, all fans of African teams are uniting behind the Black Stars so that the Americans will face a serious battle for support.

After hosts Bafana Bafana were eliminated, despite beating France, and Ivory Coast failed to advance, it was left to Ghana to represent the host continent. Although they lost to Germany in Soccer City in their last match, the Black Stars still made it through.

Word on the street here is that there is a glut of tickets still available, previously owned by English fans who thought they would be attending this game. It didn’t work out quite as they thought so it’s now USA vs. Africa.

The biggest surprises here are of course France not making it through and a ridiculous show of “sportsmanship” when its coach refused to shake hands after losing to the South Africans and Italy being sent home by Slovakia. The Azzuri fans don’t know what hit them.

After today’s match, I head to Mexico/Argentina which should be an amazing showdown!

The 32 teams competing at the 2010 FIFA World Cup South Africa are broken into 8 groups (A through H). In the group stage, 2 teams from each group make it through to the next round of 16.

Which countries were included this year, and who is making it through the group stage?  Here is a breakdown of the group standings.

2010 WORLD CUP GROUPS  &  STANDINGS

Group A: South Africa, Mexico, Uruguay*, France

Group B: Argentina*, Nigeria, South Korea, Greece

Group C: England, USA*, Algeria, Slovenia

Group D: Germany*, Australia, Ghana, Serbia

Group E: Netherlands*, Denmark, Japan, Cameroon

Group F: Italy, Slovakia, Paraguay*, New Zealand

Group G: Brazil*, North Korea, Ivory Coast, Portugal

Group H: Spain*, Honduras, Chile, Switzerland

Strikethrough = Eliminated, Star (*) = Group Leader

For the first time in the history of the FIFA World Cup, Korea Republic have advanced into the final sixteen on foreign soil.

After starting with an impressive 2:0 victory over Greece, Korea Republic were sitting atop the group. But a 4:1 loss to Argentina erased the superiority in goal differential and left the Taeguk Jeonsa clinging on for dear life. Heading into the final match against Nigeria, the math wasn’t so difficult: secure at least a draw and hope that Greece don’t do better against the table-topping Albiceleste. But achieving the necessary result wouldn’t be as easy as the calculation. Nigeria would be no push-over and while Argentina are clearly the strongest side in the group, it wasn’t a foregone conclusion that they would win. That’s because with entry in to the second round more or less squared away, Diego Maradona chose to make seven lineup changes to his squad in order to prepare for the round of sixteen.

Korea Republic had the first chance in the game’s 2nd minute, but it was Nigeria who drew first blood. Kalu Uche outbattled a complacent Cha Du Ri to get on the end of a grounded cross in the 12th minute to give the Super Eagles flight. As it turned out, that was just the first of many defensive errors that Korea Republic would make.

In the 36th minute, Kalu Uche made a serious effort for his second goal of the match. He let loose a line drive from 25 meters out and the shot soared through Korean defenders and past goalkeeper Jung Sung Ryung before eventually hitting off the post to keep the Asians alive.

And just two minutes later, Korea Republic capitalized. Lee Jung Soo turned in a free-kick sent towards the far post, very similar to the way he scored against Greece, to level the scores. With Argentina and Greece still scoreless in Polokwane, Lee’s equaliser meant that Korea Republic were now in position to advance.

In the 49th minute, Park Chu Young further solidified his country’s chances with a great individual effort. Amidst a sea of Nigerian defenders, Park turned nothing into something by winning a foul in an advanced position. He then atoned for his own goal against Argentina by drilling the ball into the side netting between goalkeeper Vincent Enyeama and the far post on the 26-meter free kick. But Nigeria wouldn’t bow out so easily.

In the 66th minute, Nigeria found space behind the Korean backline and created a chance for Yakubu Ayegbani. Ayegbani had the ball just 3 meters away from an empty net, but managed to push the shot wide — a task that was probably harder than scoring the equaliser.

Korea Republic made yet another serious mistake just two minutes later. Second-half substitute Kim Nam Il lost possession of the ball inside of his penalty box and foolishly took down Chinedu Obasi from behind. Kim was lucky to get away with just a yellow card, but the luck would run out there. Ayegbani made amends for his earlier miss by dispatching the resulting penalty kick into the net to level the scores and keep Nigeria alive.

When it was known that Argentina had finally broken through by scoring in the 77th minute and again in the 89th minute, the tide of the game drastically changed. Korea Republic were now certain that a draw would see them through, while Nigeria pushed men forward with a seemingly renewed vigor in an attempt to score the goal that would give them the ticket into the second round instead. The final minutes of the match featured various Nigeria players making attempts at goal from distance. Each one missed, but none of them by very much.

Though Korea Republic are through to the knockout stage, they are not without serious questions to ask. Nigeria had picked apart the defense but were ultimately unable to convert enough of the chances. However, the match suggested that an opponent of higher quality — such as second-round opponent Uruguay — would be able to better punish the Koreans for their mistakes. After all, Argentina had pounded out four goals against Korea Republic just five days earlier.

The offense also leaves something to be desired. Though the five goals in the group stage are good, three were from set pieces and the other two were gifts from the defense. Korea Republic lack the cohesive teamwork necessary to threaten the goal with a live ball using just forwards and midfielders. But when the backs move up to help on the attack, it further weakens an already suspect defense.

After being in Johannesburg for just under three days and seeing two great matches, I can honestly say that I am blown away by the whole World Cup experience.

First off, to say that South Africa is hosting the World Cup is quite literal. All South Africans are in this together. I have never seen so many people beam with so much pride in welcoming people to their country. Everyone is incredibly friendly, warm and helpful. There are signs and soccer balls EVERYWHERE. This is a huge accomplishment when you consider the nation’s first free election was in 1994. South Africans have reason to be proud.

Secondly, the world is truly here. It’s so fantastic to see fans in jerseys from all the different countries speaking dozens of languages gathered around the huge TVs in the public plazas and restaurants.

And then there are the games themselves. On Sunday I was lucky enough to see Brazil take on Ivory Coast at Soccer City, the new, ultra modern stadium in Soweto. Concerns about traffic jams convinced us to head to the game early, so we spent the better part of the afternoon around the stadium, watching the end of the Italy-New Zealand draw on a big screen outdoors and sampling some of the local fare outside.

Inside the stadium buzzed with electricity, and I don’t just mean from the vuvuzelas. There were literally thousands of Brazilians there decked out in some amazing fan attire, as well as a smattering of Ivory Coast fans, too. Brazil won as expected but Didier Drogba scored for Ivory Coast in the second half to the delight of many. Kaka was red carded near the end of the game which added even more drama to a thrilling 3-1 win. It was the best soccer match I have ever seen, based solely on the level of skill. The Brazilians are amazing and Ivory Coast is quite strong.

Monday night I headed to Ellis Park Stadium (site of the rugby match depicted in the movie Invictus) for a completely different but totally thrilling experience. The drive downtown showed the neighborhoods surrounding the park and gave a striking depiction of urban life in the middle of Johannesburg. The stadium complex is quite old (though updated) and seats just over 50,000, which is 30,000 fewer than Soccer City. It was a far more intimate setting to see Spain shut out Honduras, 2-0, to try to regain face in the tournament. Fans of Espana outnumbered the Hondurans, but it was a dedicated group in blue and white who stayed until the very end.

Today everyone will gather around the TVs and in the plazas because our hosts face off against France because South Africa is gaining a lot of fans!

As a Korea Republic supporter, I’ve literally been losing sleep over this match the last few days.

Before the competition started, I had predicted that Argentina would win the group and that second place would come down to this very match. Assuming that Argentina beat Greece, this is exactly the scenario that would come to place: Korea Republic advance with a win or a draw, Nigeria are through with a win.

Let us compare results so far.

Nigeria lost to Argentina by a 1:0 score. While Korea Republic lost by a 4:1 score, the scoreline does tell a bit of a lie. The game was closer than your typical three-goal result.

Korea Republic defeated Greece by a 2:0 score, and it very easily could’ve been 3:0 or more. On the other hand, Nigeria looked well on their way to matching Korea Republic’s result before an unfortunate red card crippled the Super Eagles and allowed Greece to squeak out a victory.

All reports seem to indicate that the two sides are very evenly matched.

Korea Republic are more technically talented in the midfield, especially with the absence of John Obi Mikel and now, the suspended Sani Kaita. This seemingly sets the advantage for Korea Republic. And while the Nigerian back line has holes, goalkeeper Vincent Enyeama has perhaps been the goalkeeper of the tournament so far and I fear that Korea Republic lack the finisher of the quality necessary to beat him. Of Korea Republic’s three goals scored so far in the tournament, one was from a set piece and the other two were the direct result of defender errors.

Korea Republic lack the sophisticated teamwork necessary to create chances up front and lone striker Park Chu Young has been known to let a few speculative shots fly. Against Enyeama, those will just be wasted efforts. [Update: Korea Republic will deploy in a 4-4-2 against Nigeria with Yeom Ki Hun joining Park up front. Korea Republic used a 4-4-2 in the victory over Greece, before switching to 4-2-3-1 against Argentina.]

Korea Republic hope to create their chances by moving men forward on blitz counterattacks. But that’s also their biggest weakness: defenders are sometimes a little slow returning to their line or a little sloppy with their marking. I don’t expect Nigeria to be as unforgiving as Argentina, but I don’t expect Nigeria to be quite as hapless as Greece either. A lot rides on the hands of goalie Jung Sung Ryong and he has proven before that he could step up to the task; with Jung and veteran Lee Woon Jae sharing the net-minding responsibilities, Korea Republic only allowed four goals during their eight qualifications matches.

Right now, I am fearing the worst — but I tend to panic. If the Super Eagles win, they would fly ahead of Korea Republic on goal differential and leave no permutation for the Taeguk Jeonsa to advance. All things considering, I would take my chances with a draw against Nigeria and hope that Argentina — who will be without Jonas Gutierrez, Gabriel Heinze, Carlos Tevez, Gonzalo Higuain and skipper Javier Mascherano — will come through with some help.

I keep looking to the bookmakers for some relief. Nigeria backers are getting 7/4 and Greece backers will get paid 5/1 for a win. The betting public — which hasn’t been that horrible so far — seem to be placing bets most heavily on NGA/KOR ending in a draw and Argentina finishing the group with nine points, a turn of events that would see Korea Republic through. But right now, that information brings little consolation.

I offer my “predictions” that appear to be a combination of actual expectation and optimistic thinking.

Nigeria 1:1 Korea Republic

Argentina 2:0 Greece