The Tampa Bay Lightning were one of the huge surprises in 2010-11 after a disappointing season the year before. A new owner, GM and coach brought the team all the way to Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals, where they lost out to the Boston Bruins. The Lightning enter the offseason looking to build on that success, but it certainly won’t be easy.

Midseason acquisition Dwayne Roloson was re-signed to be Tampa’s #1 goaltender, but as his age he will need a very good backup capable of starting 20-25 games. Their defense will be better in 2011-12, as they will get a full season out of Eric Brewer, and they expect Victor Hedman to continue to raise his game as he gains more experience in the league. The forwards are where things will get interesting, as Steven Stamkos is without a contract, Ted Purcell may be going to arbitration and it is unlikely that Simon Gagne and Sean Bergenheim will be re-signed. Tampa had major changes last year at the forward position, and did justfine, so perhaps they can expect the same this summer.

The Lightning have just north of $18M in cap space, and although that number seems high, it will get eaten up pretty quickly. Re-signing Steven Stamkos will cost $7M to $8M depending on his demands and the threat of an offer sheet. Ted Purcell could earn $2.5M to $3M if he goes to arbitration. Whoever they sign to backup Roloson (Tampa is hoping for Mike Smith) will cost another $1.5M to $2.0M. On the high end, they will have already brought that number down to $5M, without even finding UFAs to play LW on the second and third lines. It is possible Tampa will give one of those spots to top prospects Carter Ashton or Brett Connolly. They could trade Ryan Malone to get some more cap space, but that will only create another hole in the lineup.

TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING 2011-12 ROSTER (using CAPGEEK CAP CALCULATOR)

FORWARDS
Ryan Malone ($4.500m) / Steven Stamkos ($0.000m) / Martin St. Louis ($5.625m)
2ND LINE LW ($0.000m) / Vincent Lecavalier ($7.727m) / Ted Purcell ($0.000m)
3RD LINE LW ($0.000m) / Dominic Moore ($1.100m) / Steve Downie ($1.850m)
Dana Tyrell ($0.845m) / Nate Thompson ($0.900m) / Adam Hall ($0.600m)
Blair Jones ($0.525m)

DEFENSEMEN
Eric Brewer ($3.850m) / Victor Hedman ($3.500m)
Mattias Ohlund ($3.607m) / Pavel Kubina ($3.850m)
Brett Clark ($1.500m) / Marc-Andre Bergeron ($1.000m)
Bruno Gervais ($0.550m)

GOALTENDERS
Dwayne Roloson ($3.000m) / BACKUP GOALIE ($0.000m)

BUYOUTS: Vaclav Prospal ($1.166m) / Todd Fedoruk ($0.375m)

CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000
CAP PAYROLL: $46,071,916
CAP SPACE: $18,228,084

Barring something drastic (like Stamkos leaving), Tampa will make the playoffs next season and continue to be one of the most exciting teams in the league to watch. However, the difference between being a good team and being a great team lies in the hands of Steve Yzerman. This will be one of those teams where fans should “expect the unexpected” over the next month.

The 2010-2011 regular season was one of up-and-downs for the Tampa Bay Lightning.  Early in the season it looked as if the Lightning were going to be a force to be reckoned with in the Southeast Division and rest of the conference. However, instead of sprinting to the finish line, the Lightning sputtered like a car running out of gas in the last quarter of the season.

The story of this upcoming Tampa Bay Lightning—Pittsburgh Penguins series has to be the absence of Penguins captain Sidney Crosby.  With Crosby 100% healthy and playing like the mad-man that he was before he went down with a concussion, I would have handed the Penguins this series on a platter.  Add to that the absence of Evgeni Malkin, this will be a series that is going down to the wire.

The Lightning will look to go all-out on offense as the defensive corps will not have to sweat over the fear of keeping tabs on Malkin or Crosby.  They will rely on their players that have been there before such as Vincent Lecavalier (25g) and Martin St. Louis (99pts), and this year’s runner-up in the Rocket Richard race, Steven Stamkos (91pts).  If the Lightning expect to break through a more defensive-minded Penguins squad, these are the players that will have to lead the way.

The thing that the Penguins have going for them is their playoff savvy and experience gained from being only two years removed from winning the Cup.  The Lightning?  Their first appearance since 2007. The Penguins’ core group is still intact and they know how to win in both the regular season and in the playoffs.

Besides Crosby, this squad still boasts three 20+ goal scorers in Chris Kunitz, Tyler Kennedy, and James Neal.  Even with Crosby and Malkin out, you still have to worry about those players along with Alex Kovalev.

Defense is night and day between the two teams.  With names like Kris Letang, Paul Martin, Brooks Orpik, and Zbynek Michalek anchoring the blueline for the Penguins you would be hard pressed to find someone that would prefer names like Nate Thompson, Eric Brewer, Marc-Andre Bergeron, and Brett Clark playing on their side.

The edge to goaltending goes to the Penguins because of Marc-Andre Fleury’s play throughout the season and his experience in a Cup win.  However, you can’t discount Dwayne Roloson after coming in a righting the goaltending issues in Tampa Bay.  Don’t forget that Roloson has some unfinished business after losing in the finals in 2006 to the Carolina Hurricanes.

While I give the edge in goaltending and defense to the Penguins, I think the Lightning’s guns will be able to push this to seven games.  However, I think in a game seven affair, the Penguin’s intangibles are going to be too much to overcome.

Penguins in seven.

Another game, another inconsistent effort resulting in a loss to Southeast Division rivals Carolina Hurricanes during a back-to-back home-and-home series.

The Eric (Staal) and Erik (Cole) pairing combined for three goals for the Hurricane offense which helped propel them over the struggling Tampa Bay Lightning and keep their postseason aspirations alive. This dual ended up putting the Hurricanes up 4-1 with 7:40 left to go in the third period. Being down 4-1 late in the third period you could tell that there wasn’t any momentum on the Lightning’s side.

Similar to many games the past few weeks, the Tampa Bay Lightning would come out strong in the first period and end up lapsing for 20 minutes at a time causing them to lose the game.  Case in point, a three shot effort in the second period.

Simon Gagne opened up scoring at 6:50 into the first period on the powerplay.  Gagne made a hard drive to the net from the goal line to stuff it five-hole past Cam Ward.

Vincent Lecavalier would provide some spark in the end scoring at 13:17 into the third period by deflecting a point shot into the net less than a minute after Staal seemingly drove the nail in the coffin with his goal, the Hurricane’s fourth.

Simon Gagne would get his second of the night on the powerplay on a scramble in front of the net less than a minute after Lecavalier’s notch to bring the game to 4-3.

Unfortunately, despite the late third period push Ward would stand tall and finish the night with 18 saves.     Dwayne Roloson finished the night with 35 saves which goes to show you how desperate this Hurricanes team was compared to the gliding Lightning squad.

Jeff Skinner had the opening goal for the Hurricanes in the first period.

Look to measure the Lightning’s drive and interest again as the face the Hurricanes again in less than 24 hours.  Should they not show any passion, every Lightning fan should be nervous about their chances in the playoffs and even their chances at finishing in the top 8–nothing is a given right now.

After tonight’s loss, the Lightning and their fans must be looking back at the Curtis McElhinney trade and wonder what would have happened had the Ottawa Senators not snatched him up.  Would the Lightning be sound in goal after this season should Dwayne Roloson’s age become an issue? Would the Lightning not have lost tonight 3-2OT off a mishandled Jason Spezza goal that handcuffed Roloson?

The Lighting continued a trend of losing the lead in the third period.  After outshooting the Senators 13-3 in the first period, the tables turned in the third and the Lightning were outshot 18-10 resulting in two goals for the Senators.

Nick Foligno scored the tying goal with 3:55 left in the game off a tip from a hard shot through the crease.

Ryan Shannon scored a shorthanded goal 12:27 into the third for the Senators while Marek Svatos was in the penalty box

For the Lightning, Vincent Lecavalier and Dana Tyrell got the goals.

The Lightning continue to lose ground in the race for the division title as the Washington Capitals.  At this point in the season, the focus cannot be the title, but to figure out how to play a full 60 minute game.  Give credit to the Lightning for the effort in the overtime period, but it would not have been necessary if they finished the game as strong as they started.

Even though Roloson put in a good game and blocked 31 shots, Lightning fans must wonder if the defense isn’t limiting his nights to less than 30 shots a game, will his age (41) end up being a factor through a rough playoff season?

McElhinney finished the game with 35 saves and left Lightning fans wondering what if?

The Tampa Bay Lightning lost another game that they should have won, falling 4-3 to the Florida Panthers.  Even though they played their second game in just as many nights there was no reason come out flat since they didn’t put much effort into the match the night before.

Panther’s Jason Garrison’s goal sent the Lightning packing with 16 seconds remaining in overtime.  Just like that the Lightning have lost the past 6 of 7 games.

David Booth, Niclas Bergfors, and Ryan Carter were the other scorers for Florida. Carter and Bergfors made the game 3-1 with less than 15 minutes left in the third period.

Give the Lightning credit for putting on the press and tying the game up in the third period after being down 3-1, but for most of the game they coasted and only put on a sustained effort for 20 minutes of a game that’s played for 60.

The goals for the Lightning came from Simon Gagne, Vincent Lecavalier, Martin St. Louis and Steven Stamkos.

Lecavalier made the game 3-2 on a 5-on-3 powerplay with 7:25 left in the game and Gagne put back a nifty rebound of Clemmenson’s back to tie the game with 2:05 left in the third.

Mike Smith ended the game with 23 saves and fielded the blame for the team, “For me, I should have made a save here or there and it’s a win under our belt.”

Smith might have seen it that way, but it was concerted lack of effort that did the Lightning in.

With the way that the Lightning are playing as a team as of right now, they are not a Stanley Cup contender.  Losing two games in a row is bad, but these were two games against teams on the outside of the playoff picture with no hope of getting into the top eight.  Also, it was Panther’s backup Scott Clemmenson finishing the night with 36 saves, not Tomas Vokoun.

Secondary and tertiary scoring is needed to win games and that isn’t happening for the Bolts.  Dominic Moore, Sean Bergenheim, Simon Gagne, and Teddy Purcell each only have one goal in the six games played in March.  With only less than two months until the playoffs, the Bolts need these guys to get rolling again.

The Lightning showed that they can play with the best of them earlier in the season.  GM Steve Yzerman fielded a team that has the scoring depth, leadership, and talent to go far.   The problem is they’re coming apart at the wrong time.  Just as the Washington Capitals are hitting their stride and finding a way to win close games, the Lightning suddenly forgot how.

In a post-game interview after the win against the Chicago Blackhawks, Steven Stamkos had these sentiments “”We’re really persevering right now. We’re learning about what it takes to win in those tight games, and for the most part we’ve been on the winning side of those.”  But, what a difference one game can make.  The Lightning came out flat and stayed that way the rest of the game falling 2-1 to the Ottawa Senators.

Also, talk about the cliché that you want to beat your former team—Curtis McElhinney took it to a new level.  He ended the night with 34 saves against the team that acquired him in a trade from Anaheim and immediately placed him on waivers.

While the shot totals were in favor of the Lightning, 35-21, they were unable to secure the game in crucial moments.  They had a number of opportunities they just could not put away in the last period of the game.

Jason Spezza scored on the powerplay in the first period courtesy of Nate Thompson’s tripping pentalty on Derek Smith.

A couple lines had spurts of good play, but McElhinney kept the Senators in the game long enough for Senator Bobby Butler to notch his seventh of the season past Dwayne Roloson who finished the night with 20 saves.

The only goal came on a two-man advantage when Martin St. Louis slid in a rebound at 17:07 in the third period.  Assists went to Teddy Purcell and Steven Stamkos.

After seeing the Lightning play their game through adversity and finally getting a win against the Stanley Cup Champion Blackhawks, it was disappointing to see them come out flat against a lesser opponent tonight.

With the playoffs around the corner, the adversity and perseverance that the Lightning showed up to tonight will bode will in the playoffs, however if they start taking nights off here and there, it could be a really nerve-wracking final stretch for Lightning fans.

The Tampa Bay Lightning continued their winning ways even though the game revealed the several faces of the club—one that can dominate an opponent and the other that falls asleep at the wheel hoping that road isn’t on a cliffside.

Even though the Lightning came out on top 2-1 over the Rangers, Coach Guy Boucher ended up being disappointed with his team.  That assessment is warranted.  They made things look pretty at times—Martin St. Louis’s one timer off a Steve Downie pass in the first period—and at times they played an ugly game where they let the Rangers dictate the tempo and set-up shop in Dwayne Roloson’s crease.

One of these ugly moments led to the only Rangers goal. It came when the Lightning turned over the puck high in the zone during a powerplay.  The Rangers’ Brandon Prust picked up a pass in the neutral zone and because of a lazy and ill-timed diving poke check by Marc-Andre Bergeron gave Prust an open look at Roloson.  Though the goal was questionable as Prust appeared to have driven both Roloson and the puck into the net with his body, his break away shouldn’t have happened in the first place.

The only players on the Lightning that looked like they realized there was a game going were Vincent Lecavalier who continued his hot streak by adding another goal today and Roloson making 22 saves.

The Lightning need to refocus and be ready to play the New Jersey Devils again after coming out in their last meeting last Friday.