Brady Hoke, the head coach of the Michigan Wolverines football team, offered a great quote recently on the subject of gauging your club’s prospects by looking at rival teams when he told Dan Patrick, “If we’ve got to talk negatives about other schools, we don’t have enough positives to talk about with what we have.”

That seems to be the general mentality of team coaches and executives, who’d prefer to focus their attention inward rather than occupy their time worried about opponents whom they can’t control – and rightfully so.

The problem, however, is that sports are constructed to pit teams against one another, not only within games but also over the course of year-long pursuits at postseason seedings. So yeah, you can focus inward all you want, but at the end of the day, you are only as good as how you compare to those around you.

This is my rather long-winded way to examine the remaining second half schedule for the Leafs, and how rosy their playoff outlook appears in connection with the fortunes of other clubs vying for Eastern Conference playoff seeds.

As it stands now, the Rangers, Bruins and Flyers all appear to be foregone conclusions as playoff participants, claiming three of the eight available spots. Among those remaining five, at least one will go to the winner of the Southeast division, currently controlled by the surprise Florida Panthers (although Washington continues to lurk four points back and with a game in hand).

With four spots left up for grabs, the second half will be about verifying the legitimacy of first half standouts (with the Ottawa Senators atop the list), as well as the ability for perennial contenders to rebound (the Sidney Crosby-less Pittsburgh Penguins being chief among them).

In the middle of it all is Toronto, currently No. 7 in the conference and three points clear of a playoff spot while sitting just one point shy of the New Jersey Devils with a game in hand. The Leafs are steadily returning back to health (Tyler Bozak is the only regular currently out of the line-up) and play five of their next six games at home, but it’s hard to ignore the presence of the Penguins, Sabres and even the Jets lurking on the playoff fringes.

Over the long-term, the schedule gets tough. After the All-Star break, the Leafs play 18 of their remaining 33 games on the road, including a three-game swing through Western Canada and a five-game road trip in which four of the five opponents (Washington, Florida, Ottawa and Boston) currently occupy Eastern playoff spots.

Of course, the remaining schedule at this point isn’t going to be a breeze for anyone. Buffalo has 23 of their final 39 games taking place away from home, while Scotiabank Place will be devoid of any Senators games (although it will host All-Star Weekend) from January 16 until February 3.

The point is, the postseason opportunity is there for Toronto, but it won’t be easy. Among those in the mix for the 5-8 seeds in the East, only the Capitals currently hold a game in hand on the Leafs (conversely, the Buds own a game in hand on New Jersey and Winnipeg and three on Ottawa). Obviously, the return to health of Crosby, as well as the return to consistency of Ryan Miller, could shake up the playoff picture. However, the fact that Toronto is well ahead of its 2010-11 pace in what is an improved Eastern Conferences bodes well for their fortunes and should provide a confidence boost heading into the second half race.

Complain all you want, Leaf fans.

Complain about how your club lacks secondary scoring, doesn’t have the grit or that you’d expect from a Brian Burke team and are more penalty pacifists than penalty killers.

The bottom line, as we arrive at the Christmas break, is that the 2011-12 Leafs are significantly improved from the 2010-11 squad.

The record is the easiest point of comparison. The Buds entered last year’s break riding a three-game losing skid and sporting a 12-17-4 record. This season, they will awaken on Christmas morning with gifts under the tree and a 18-13-4 record in the stockings – er, standings. Yes, that record represents two more games played than on this date last year, but it’s not as if the ‘10-11 Leafs would have been able to make up the 12-point deficit anyway (they didn’t reach 40 points last season until game No. 42 on January 11^th).

Of course, it’s what’s behind this season’s more front-loaded record that matters.

The Leafs suddenly find themselves more talent-rich than at any other point in the post-lockout era. Up front, they boast a bona fide superstar (Phil Kessel), as well as an elite pivot (Tim Connolly) and a potential late-blossoming star (Joffrey Lupul). On the blue line, another established force (Dion Phaneuf) is joined by a near-star (Luke Schenn) and a rising talent who is making his mark quickly (Jake Gardiner). In net, the Leafs have perhaps their surest thing between the pipes since Ed Belfour (James Reimer). Important note: the oldest of any of the aforementioned Leafs is Lupul – at 28 years of age.

While contributions outside of this core group have been the source of some consternation within Leaf land, there have been strides taken there, too. Tyler Bozak has been a different player for T.O. this year (he’s already matched his assist total from a season ago), Mike Komisarek was playing his best hockey since joining the club prior to being sidelined with a broken wrist and the club has gotten contributions from those acquired from outside the organization (Connolly, John-Michael Liles and David Steckel, to name three), as well as those promoted from within (Joey Crabb, Matt Frattin, Keith Aulie and, most recently, Nazem Kadri).

On offence, an exaggerated perception of a secondary scoring dearth exists largely due to how good Kessel and Lupul have been together. Seeing time with both Connolly and Bozak centring them, the two wingers have gelled and their combined 79 points tie them with the Sedins for highest-scoring duos. The 17 assists by each of Bozak, Liles and Phaneuf are nothing to sneeze at (although there is some legit concern with Clarke MacArthur being the only other double-digit goal scorer on the team). The trio of Connolly, Kadri and MacArthur, who displayed some chemistry and production after being lumped together part-way through Thursday’s win over the Sabres, will be offered a chance to ease some of the pressure on Kessel and Lupul after the break.

Defensively, questions have been raised about the club’s toughness, a claim almost unthinkable against a Brian Burke-constructed squad. While it certainly isn’t ideal that the Buds rank fifth in most goals allowed (to be fair, they rank eighth in goals for), shouldn’t the unit’s youthfulness hold up as an excuse to absolve them of at least some finger-pointing? Yes, seven of the club’s eight defencemen stand at 6’1” or taller, but seven of eight also happen to be 29 or younger (six are 26 or younger). Certain elements of the physical NHL game have to be innate, but other elements are learned. These guys are getting there.

Looking ahead, the club remains in tough to even secure a playoff spot. This has less to do with their play and more (as I predicted before the season) to do with what is a significantly improved Eastern Conference. They currently hold a precarious grip on sixth in the Conference, one point ahead of the New Jersey Devils and Ottawa Senators and just three points clear of ninth-place Winnipeg. Even if they can continue to fend off the three clubs, all of whom seem to be building momentum, there still exists the ever-present possibility of one of the slumbering giants –Washington, Montreal, Buffalo and Tampa Bay – making the kind of second half strides that their talent level dictates they should. In other words, nothing is guaranteed in what is a surprisingly loaded East.

Fortunately, Toronto is equipped for the second half. In addition to a glut of NHL-ready forwards to be plucked from down the road at Ricoh Coliseum for depth purposes (Joe Colborne and Darryl Boyce chief among them – and yes, I know Boyce is with the team right now), there will also be no shortage of valuable injury returnees, including Komisarek, Colby Armstrong, Mike Brown, Matthew Lombardi and Philippe Dupuis. The infusion of depth could also help create a surplus of assets to pull from in the event of moves prior to the trade deadline.

Call me a sucker for the holiday spirit if you will, given the rosy picture I’m presenting. However, this is a club that’s doing the right things in many ways and no amount of Bruins-incurred beatdowns or short-handed messes will change that. Playoffs or no playoffs, this season has made one thing abundantly clear: the Leafs are a team headed in the right direction.

What Happened

The great misleading thing about the NHL standings in the shootout era is the extra category for the “OT loss” and what it says about the team that gets one on their record. The Leafs (15-10-3) are coming off a week in which they went 1-1-1, which resembles an even, “.500” record except for the fact that the team came out on the losing end of two of its three games. Therefore, a seven-day stretch in which they still couldn’t figure out the Bruins, took two points from the Rangers on the road* and came up short in overtime against the Devils at home was, in fact, a losing week.  

*Curious as the Leafs’ utter inability to solve Boston is their apparent mastery over the Rangers. New York sits fifth in the East and has lost just twice at home in regulation this season – both times being to Toronto. While the Bruins still have yet to see the Leafs come within two goals in any of their four meetings this year, Toronto has won both games at Madison Square Garden by a 4-2 score. They will host the Rangers twice in 2012.

What’s Notable

Finishing Strong
There is an often-used refrain in basketball to dismiss obsessive talk over starting line-ups that “it’s not how you start games but how you finish them”. If the same holds true for hockey, then the Leafs appear to be in good shape with the way they’re playing. The club hasn’t been perfect in the third period of games (their five-goals-allowed implosion at home to Ottawa in October being as good an example as any), but it has certainly come through more often than not. When ahead, the Leafs have played solid, safe, defensive-minded hockey and own a 10-0 record when carrying a lead into the final frame. When trailing, their youth helps inject some of the energy needed to make a late push, as they did on Tuesday against New Jersey before falling in OT. If they maintain this tendency to display grit, hustle and character late in games, then it may be time to – I can’t believe I’m saying this – reward Ron Wilson with an extension. For as much as the penalty kill remains a glaring weakness and there are still other holes, the team is clearly playing hard for him.

Where Does Colby Fit?
Great as it is to see Colby Armstrong recovered from his high ankle sprain and ready to play on Friday (although he didn’t look too disappointed being on the shelf here), it’s hard to see where he fits. The obvious answer is that he slides right back into his third-line wing position that vacated by the demoted Joe Colborne, but that slot could be occupied by Matt Frattin, who will lose his second-line spot to the returning Clarke MacArthur and certainly has done enough to merit avoiding fourth-line duty. Therefore, Armstrong could very well find himself trying to regain his timing on the little-used grinder line alongside David Steckel and whichever among Philippe Dupuis and Jay Rosehill happens to avoid press box duty. Probably not an ideal scenario for the likable vet, but ultimately offers a positive indication of the depth suddenly enjoyed in Toronto.

The Ontario All-Star Game
Has the NHL opened voting on the 2012 All-Star Game to anyone outside of Southern Ontario yet? I know that the Senators are hosting the annual event, but it still seems odd to see the voting dominance enjoyed by the Sens, the ninth-ranked team in the Eastern Conference, and the Leafs, the sixth-ranked team in the East. Up front, Ottawa and Toronto boast five of the top six vote-getters among Eastern forwards. I get Phil Kessel, Milan Michalek, Joffrey Lupul and maybe even Jason Spezza being in the mix alongside Sidney Crosby, but how did Daniel Alfredsson find his way in there? Meanwhile, Erik Karlsson and Dion Phaneuf rank 1-2 among Eastern blue liners in voting and James Reimer leads all goaltenders in the East. I guess ballot-stuffing offers an indication of devotion and dedication to one’s team, but it winds up giving a local exhibition feel to what should be a heralded league-wide event.

What’s Coming Up

@ Washington (Friday); vs. Carolina (Tuesday)

Another HNIC-less weekend for the Leafs sees them head into Washington to pay a visit to the Dale Hunter-led Capitals, who aren’t likely to have forgotten the 7-1 beating that Toronto laid on them on November 19 (which might have contributed to the firing of Bruce Boudreau). Then, it’s a few days off for the Buds before Tomas Kaberle, Alex Ponikarovsky, Tim Brent, Jiri Tlusty, Jay Harrison (that’s a lot of ex-Leafs!) and co. come to town with the Hurricanes, led by another new head coach in Kirk Muller.

What Happened

Anyone who witnessed the past week of Leafs (14-9-2) hockey would be hard-pressed to argue that the West remains the stronger conference. Toronto walked into Dallas and Anaheim last weekend and took all four points from the 14-9-1 Stars and the talented-but underperforming Ducks (now under the watch of Bruce Boudreau) to move to 5-1-2 against Western Conference teams. Then, after three days between games and a chance to return home, the Leafs couldn`t extend their three-game winning streak against the freight train that is the Boston Bruins right now.

What’s Notable

Not Bad for a Pair of Rookies
They were born on opposite sides of the border and don`t even play the same position, but there`s plenty that connects Leafs rookies Matt Frattin and Jake Gardiner. Both men arrived in Toronto during the 2010-11 season (Frattin as a college signee and Gardiner in the Beauchemin-Lupul deal), both men moved up the ranks by playing NCAA hockey, both used impressive pre-seasons to propel them into early NHL dury and both men are making an early mark on the 2011-12 Leafs after slow starts. Neither one is exactly setting the NHL on fire stats-wise (Gardiner has no goals and seven assists, while Frattin has two goals and three assists), but they are quickly adjusting to the speed and physicality of the pro level and becoming more and more visible as contributors. Frattin began the season looking like he was afraid to jump into the rush as a fill-in for Clarke MacArthur on the second line, but has since developed a physical edge and has shown a willingness to get involved offensively. Gardiner, meanwhile, has grown increasingly comfortable as a puck-moving defenceman and, despite still getting caught out of position every now and then, remains one of nine Leafs on the positive side of the plus-minus ledger.

Gustavsson Finds Consistency
Lost in all the talk of James Reimer`s pending return to the line-up (he`ll likely dress on Saturday, but may not start until next week) has been the productive recent play of his back-up. Jonas Gustavsson isn`t exactly making anyone forget Optimus Reim or challenging him for the starting job, but the Monster has demonstrated the kind of steady, reliable play (at least in the last few games) that a team needs from its goaltending understudy. Over his past five games, since he regained sole possession of the No. 2 spot of the depth chart from Ben Scrivens, Gustavsson has looked more settled between the pipes and the results have shown:  a 4-1 record with a.927 save percentage over that stretch (4-0 with a .944% prior to Wednesday`s loss to Boston). Getting Reimer back and playing at close to 100% remains critical for the club, but a consistent Gustavsson not only mitigates Reimer`s potential struggles upon returning, but also helps control the trickle down development of the rest of the organization`s goaltenders (Scrivens, Mark Owuya, Jussi Rynnas).

Ryan Rumours
Two issues with people talking as though Bobby Ryan to the Leafs is a foregone conclusion: 1) it serves as an excellent example of the `Toronto is the centre of the hockey universe` thinking that other cities despise us for; and 2) it counteracts much of what Brian Burke has effectively done for the franchise in terms of top-to-bottom improvements. It can`t be disputed that Ryan is a major asset, but here`s the deal: 28 other teams are thinking the same thing. Who doesn`t want a 24-year old coming off exactly 100 goals over his first three NHL seasons? Regardless of the fact that Burke drafted him, or whatever relationship the Leafs GM still has with Anaheim GM Bob Murray (and really, how eager is Murray to deal with Burke after how Beauchemin-for-Lupul/Gardiner is shaping up?), any trade match comes down to a matter of assets and who is willing to cough up the most for the former Owen Sound Attack star (this isn’t an attempt at a salary dump by Anaheim – they’re seeking a premium return). Which brings me to my second point – Burke has done a tremendous job since arriving in Toronto at not only adding established star power (Phil Kessel, Dion Phaneuf), but also bringing in viable depth and restocking the farm system. Sure, some of those assets will ultimately be peddled as the team inches closer to contending, but the Leafs appear to be on the right track at the moment and while the right Ryan trade could provide the club with an added dimension, the wrong trade could undo a good chunk of the work Burke has done to this point.

Injury Winners & Losers
It’s hard to keep track of who’s coming and going on the Leafs’ IR list these days, with so many players seeming to succumb to or return from injury on what seems like a daily basis. Despite some among the battered and bruised returning of late, the team is still without a full complement of players, with Reimer, Colby Armstrong, Matthew Lombardi and Mike Komisarek remaining out. While the line-up will still undergo some shake-ups as that quartet comes back, it is beginning to take shape once again with most of the team in place. That is good news for Frattin, Tyler Bozak and Keith Aulie, but could mean trouble for Joe Colborne, Joey Crabb, Mikhail Grabovski and Cody Franson. The good news players have thrived and appear to be locking up spots that were previously thought to be insecure at best. Frattin has demonstrated sufficient versatility on the wing that he should find a consistent role on the third or fourth line regardless of Armstrong’s return, Bozak is entrenched as the top line pivot and Aulie continued to see ice time alongside Phaneuf despite the return of Carl Gunnarson. However, there are only so many spots to go around, so Colborne and Crabb, who could be among the first sent down as Armstrong and Lombardi come back, Grabovski, who is already struggling to find a role at the suddenly-deep centre position, and Franson, who found himself back in the press box against Boston, could all get (literally) short-shifted.

What’s Coming Up

@ Boston (Saturday); @ NYR (Monday); vs. New Jersey (Tuesday)

Saturday at Boston offers an interesting test to see just how mentally tough these Leafs are. Even if they don’t win, staying close and competitive while visiting a team that clearly has their number would be an accomplishment in and of itself. If they can’t gain two points in Beantown, the pressure builds for a back-to-back pair of games at Madison Square Garden and then at home to New Jersey. Of course, the biggest storyline of the week is the pending return of Reimer.

Want more Leafs talk? Be sure to follow me on Twitter: @RealBenFisher

What Happened

A 2-2 week is a 2-2 week however you slice it. That being said, there were plenty of positives for the Leafs (12-8-2) to take away from a pair of 7-1 wins over Washington and Tampa Bay, two of the league’s eight 100+ point teams from last season, counter-balanced by a 4-1 loss in Nashville and a 3-2 fatigue-fuelled defeat at the hands of Carolina.

What’s Notable

Strength Down the Middle
It seemed unthinkable as recently as this past off-season, but is the centre position an actual area of strength for these Leafs? Tyler Bozak is finally looking confident in his third NHL season and the results are getting there as well. A two-goal, one-assist game against Tampa on Tuesday gave the 25-year old 14 points (four goals, 10 assists) through 20 games, leaving him well on pace to surpass last season’s 32-point output. Of course, much of his improvement can be credited to the exceptional play of oft-linemates Phil Kessel and Joffrey Lupul, but their success has allowed Bozak to find his own game and keep things simple rather than force matters in trying to be an offensive star. Tim “As Long As He’s Healthy” Connolly also stood out on Tuesday, recording a goal and two helpers. Connolly has actually been a point-per-game player over 10 games in the line-up and will continue to bolster things down the middle so long as he can stay on the ice. Perhaps the biggest difference from a year ago is the depth of centremen further down the roster, where Robert Steckel, Matthew Lombardi and Philippe Dupuis have represented a night-and-day improvement over Tim Brent, John Mitchell, Mike Zigomanis and whoever else patrolled the middle on the back two lines last season. In fact, you could argue that Mikhail Grabovski is the only pivot on the team who is underperforming, and I still like his chances of finding his game once he returns from injury. Oh yeah, and there’s still Joe Colborne and Nazem Kadri on the rise.

A Leader Emerges
There’s a bona fide leader in theToronto locker room who happens to hone his craft on the blue line. It isn’t the captain, Dion Phaneuf (although this is pretty fantastic), nor is it supposed leader-in-waiting Luke Schenn. It’s actually been John-Michael Liles, who has quietly established himself as a reliable puck handler who is responsible in his own end and is turning into an excellent free agent pick-up. Off the ice, the 30-year old seems to have quickly grown comfortable with being a vocal presence and has kept things positive by acknowledging standout performances by younger Leafs and even offering jokes / words of praise / birthday wishes to teammates via Twitter. Okay, so when you consider a leader in the great tradition of guys like Beliveau, Messier and Yzerman, it’s fairly ridiculous to commend a guy for sending a teammate a birthday tweet, but it all speaks to establishing a repoire and building team chemistry. And right now, Liles is getting it done.

How About Those Special Teams?
It’s in the numbers – if there are an uneven number of players on the ice during a Leafs game, odds are someone is about to score. The club still ‘reigns’ as one of the league’s bottom-feeders when it comes to killing off penalties (although they are out of the basement and all the way up to… 27^th), but now they seem to be developing a knack for finding the back of the net with the man advantage. Between the 7-1 drubbings of the Caps and Lightning, Toronto scored five goals on the power play, helping them jump up to third in the league in PP efficiency (22.61905%, behind just Colorado and Vancouver). Most encouragingly, the team’s five-goal PP flurry included four different scorers and three different lines. They have now scored on eight of their previous 15 power play opportunities.

Marlies Report
Grantland.com’s Bill Simmons often promotes what he calls the “Ewing Theory”, which suggests the possibility of a team using the loss of a star player to come together and play even stronger as a unit despite (or maybe because of) the loss (the Leafs demonstrated it – to some extent – during their 2004 playoff victory over Ottawa minus Mats Sundin). I don’t think the Ewing Theory applies to minor league teams who lose stars due to call-ups, but you could certainly argue such after this past weekend’s efforts by the Toronto Marlies. After losing Colborne, Joey Crabb and, later, Korbinian Holzer to the big club, the Marlies responded with a 3-0 weekend in which they got a combined nine goals from seven different players (Jerry D’Amigo, Greg Scott, Marcel Mueller, Mike Zigomanis, Josh Engel, Simon Gysbers and Holzer) and were bolstered by Mark Owuya, who boasts a sparkling 3-1-1 record, 1.51 GAA and .944 save percentage through six starts this season.

What’s Coming Up

@ Dallas (Friday); @ Anaheim (Sunday); vs. Boston (Wednesday)

The Leafs head into what is sort of a bizarro world weekend. Not only do they visit Dallas and Anaheim for the first time in years and lack a Saturday night game, but they find themselves pitted against role-flipping teams, with Dallas playing the part of the Western Conference power recently atop the NHL standings and Anaheim playing the bottom-feeder part, complete with a 6-11-4 record. Then comes what Leafs fans are surely ruing: an all-Boston week in which the Bruins come to town on Wednesday and then host the Buds next Saturday.

What Happened

It was a ‘one step forward, two steps back’ kind of week in more ways than one for the Leafs (10-6-2), who recorded precisely one win, one loss and one OT loss this week and are ready to welcome Tim Connolly back into the line-up just as Mikhail Grabovski and Clarke MacArthur find seats in the press box. In either case, you could call it one win and two losses.

What’s Notable

Injuries Put Pressure on Youngsters
Now it’s time to see what these kids are really about. Injuries to Grabovski and MacArthur have left two voids on the team’s second line (which I argued on Tuesday was in need of a shake-up, just maybe not in that way). The returning Connolly will fill one spot, as will Matt Frattin. Frattin has a bit of second line experience, looking out of place during a two-game stint on the unit in place of the suspended MacArthur to start the year. However, we’ve seen some modest growth in the confidence and assertiveness in Frattin’s game and it will be interesting to see if those strides are made even more apparent tonight, or if this opportunity turns into a setback. Also affected by the injuries might be Jake Gardiner, who could be asked to step in up front and help contribute depth to the forward corps. For now, it’s a positive experience for both men in that they won’t face much backlash if they can’t succeed immediately. However, the pressure on the young guys will increase with every passing game that Grabovski and MacArthur remain on the sidelines (just ask Jonas Gustavsson and Ben Scrivens about that).

Burke on the Lookout
Interesting to hear Brian Burke acknowledge that he is looking outside of the organization for goaltending help. Don’t think it says anything about James Reimer’s progress, as I truly believe the team doesn’t have any timetable established on his return, nor do I think it’s a statement on Scrivens, who wasn’t expected to shoulder any kind of load this early and has looked decent at times, albeit shaky and inconsistent more often than that. It is undoubtedly an admission that Gustavsson isn’t where the club had hoped he’d be at this point, going from hoped-for starter to not even serving as a sufficient back-up. It also shows that the club was never seriously considering Marty Turco, who would come cheap and without giving up anything other than money. So who’s out there? Well, Scott Clemmensen is a popular and logical name, but Alex Auld and Curtis Sanford are two other expendable veterans who could be acquired without a huge return.

Blue and White… and Red?
I am a proud Canadian, but nationalism simply isn’t something that registers when it comes to rooting for my beloved Leafs. Sure, I was pleased to see Winnipeg return to the NHL this season, but that has more to do with the league returning to a hockey-mad market deserving of a franchise than which side of the border they reside on. I’m also not among those who feels a relatively cold indifference towards the contributions of Mats Sundin compared to Doug Gilmour and Wendel Clark (and even Tie Domi) due to heritage. So, no, I don’t have any problem with the reports of an American investment firm looking into the purchase of the Teacher’s Pension Plan’s 80% stake in MLSE. I read one ludicrous presumption that the firm would look to move the Leafs (yeah, I’m sure the NHL would love that), but I see it the other way: hopefully this is an ownership group that cares about the product, unlike the Pension Plan, who focused solely on the bottom line. Of course, I’m also not holding my breath on any imminent sale.

What’s Coming Up

@ Nashville (Thursday); vs. Washington (Saturday); @ Carolina (Sunday); @ Tampa Bay (Tuesday)

A tough stretch starting Saturday makes tonight’s visit to Nashville a near must-win. After that, the under-manned Leafs will have to contend with the slowing-down-but-still-potent Capitals at the ACC, where they haven’t won in the last four tries. Then, following what could well be a loss, they get on a flight to Carolina for a quick turn-around game against the Hurricanes (who could shake things up before Sunday) at 5:00pm. Then comes the Lightning on Tuesday night.

Here are some harsh truths as the Leafs continue their abrupt awakening from the dream that was the first 13 games of their NHL season: the goaltenders can’t be relied upon, the club’s scoring depth is woefully lacking and the second forward unit that clicked so smoothly last season looks like a trio of players on the ice with one another for the first time.

The first truth is troublesome, but ultimately doesn’t require action (at least not now). James Reimer is working his way back from the whiplash/concussion/whatever business and there doesn’t appear to be a need to add a veteran netminder in the interim. Jonas Gustavsson and Ben Scrivens have been awfully shaky, but there’s a reason that neither man is atop the Leafs’ goaltending depth chart right now.

Now, the other two obviously come as part and parcel of each other. It’s not easy to have scoring depth when your second line isn’t performing up to standard. As such, it’s time for Ron Wilson to split his most consistent line from 2010-11 up.

This isn’t necessarily about identifying individual performance, although Clarke MacArthur looks like he could tally another 60+ point season with the right linemates while, on the other hand, Nikolai Kulemin apparently hasn’t clued into this regular season thing going on. It really comes down more to being a shake-up aimed at, really, any forward not named Kessel or Lupul.

The top line is off-limits. Tyler Bozak (the only forward aside from Phil the Thrill to have scored over the past four games) is a perfectly adequate place-holder as the first line pivot for the next game or two as Tim Connolly works his way back from injury and any other changes would disrupt the good thing that Kessel and Lupul have going.

From there, I would certainly be ready to demote Kulemin and maybe even Mikhail Grabovski, who is working hard but simply not seeing the results, off the second line. A line of, say, MacArthur, Bozak (once he’s called off Kessel/Lupul duty) and Matt Frattin (seriously… he’s shaken off some early nerves and is improving quickly) would have some scoring ability with physical, two-way capabilities mixed in.

That would also add more scoring punch to the third line, where Grabbo and Kulemin could find themselves in a decidedly lower pressure situation with the opposing team’s third-string defensive unit to, potentially, prey upon. Mike Brown possesses some speed and could work on the wing, but I would be interested to see if Grabovski would fare better if moved to the wing to be centered by Matt Lombardi. Lombardi-Grabovski-Kulemin would hardly be the type of grinder line that Brian Burke likes among his bottom-two lines, but the unit would help balance the scoring efforts and would shake up a forward corps clearly in need of a jolt.

Look, I’m no expert when it comes to chemistry (I sucked in all sciences), so these proposals come with the added caveat that my analysis of the melding of on-ice styles could be way off. The point here is that five goals in four games isn’t going to cut it – and when your second scoring line is responsible for precisely none of those goals, that’s as good a starting point as any to take part in a bit of problem solving. It’s not a panic move, but a reaction to the present realities facing the club.

What Happened

The Leafs (9-5-1) are probably asking themselves the very same question as is written in the above headline right now. The week started out encouragingly enough, with a win over Columbus that was by no means a masterpiece but did get the club its ninth win and gave Ben Scrivens his first. Then, the roof collapsed. In two home games, the Buds surrendered 12 goals while just scoring one. They were clearly still shaken by a 7-0 loss to Boston (and a Tyler Seguin hat trick to add insult to injury) when they allowed Florida to walk in and steamroll them to the tune of a 5-1 beating. Oh, and Tim Connolly (again) is out 4-6 weeks with an upper body injury while the desperately-needed James Reimer (how can a guy with 43 career NHL games to his credit be desperately-needed?) seems no closer to returning.

What’s Notable

Missing the Net(minder)
Not sure what these folks currently lamenting the Leafs’ goaltending situation were expecting. Jonas Gustavsson’s struggles are undoubtedly disappointing, but he didn’t exactly leave observers flush with confident optimism heading into this season given his performance both last year and during the pre-season. Scrivens, who needs to learn how to gain control of his nerves and emotions in his own right, actually outplayed Gustavsson in September, but the team has been (and remains) set on giving the Monster every opportunity to gain confidence and find his game. Gustavsson’s viability for the club isn’t really a long-term concern – his contract expires at the end of the year and, with Reimer, Scrivens and Jussi Rynnas in the fold (all 25 and younger, by the way), plus the ability to bolster the position through other means, he can be cut loose with plenty of still-remaining hope for the future. It is, however, very much an immediate concern for a club looking to ride the momentum of a hot start but without a clear timetable for Reimer’s return or any level of confidence in their contingency plan.

Deep Trouble
Nine wins in 13 games to start a season will help hide whatever deficiencies a team may have, but that doesn’t mean those deficiencies aren’t there. Scoring depth has been an issue in Toronto since the start of the season, but has been mitigated early on by the big numbers being posted by Phil Kessel and Joffrey Lupul. Everyone knew that the two first line wingers wouldn’t keep up their torrid early scoring pace all year long, but someone was bound to step up and support them, right? Well, it hasn’t happened yet and a seven-period drought with just one Leafs goal (scored by Kessel, by the way) brings the issue to the forefront. Kessel and Lupul’s 19 goals this year represent more than 42% of the club’s over-all scoring output. Outside of a brief hot stretch by Clarke MacArthur, the second line hasn’t played up to the standards set a year ago, with Nikolai Kulemin, in particular, going invisible for long stretches of games. Beyond that, and perhaps more troublingly, it’s hard to see any depth players who have the skill set needed to step into more active scoring roles. Connolly and Colby Armstrong are hurt, guys like Colton Orr, Jay Rosehill and Philippe Dupuis can’t score a lick, Joey Crabb is unlikely to remain the scorer he was with the Marlies, David Steckel and Matt Lombardi are too much of a liability defensively (combined -11 this year) to be given a prominent scoring role and Matt Frattin still hasn’t developed that part of his game.

Can’t Blame Komisarek
My weekly recaps while the team was rolling always pointedly featured a criticism to ensure that I wasn’t giving the impression that all was perfect in Leaf Land. As such, I figure I might as well be fair and do the same in reverse to assure that, as bad as it looks, there is a sliver of good to be mixed into the doom and gloom. That good comes in the form of Mike Komisarek, who has quietly been the second most consistent blue liner on the team this season. Even after the Boston/Florida wake-up call of earlier this week, the 29-year old is a +5 on the season thanks to the physical, smart type of defence that many were expecting from Luke Schenn. Sure enough, Komisarek’s strong play mixed with Schenn’s woes has catapulted the former Hab into significant playing time, including an eight-minute bump from the final October game into the first November contest, and crunch time minutes.

Marlies Mirror Leafs with Slide
For those of you readying your finger to push the panic button on the Leafs’ season, look at it this way: at least they’re not the Marlies. Sure enough, there’s a worse slide going on at the AHL level, with the feeder group following up a 5-2 start with a disastrous road trip on which they’ve already lost five of six games, with three still to come. Injuries have played a role, with all of Keith Aulie, Darryl Boyce, Luca Caputi, Jeff Finger and, most damagingly, Joe Colborne missing time, as have the call-ups of Colborne linemate Crabb and Frattin. They also, however, have had their own goaltending issues, with Rynnas still not getting a full handle on the North American game, going 1-5 with a 3.50 GAA and .884 save percentage through six games in net. Interestingly, Scrivens’ call-up has created an opportunity for Mark Owuya to get into a pair of games, where he has impressed with a 1.81 GAA and .917 GAA.

What’s Coming Up

@ St. Louis (Thursday); vs. Ottawa (Saturday); vs. Phoenix (Tuesday)

So which Leafs team shows up this week? The one that outmuscled opponents and enjoyed the spark of Kessel, Lupul and Dion Phaneuf, or the meek, shaken up pushovers from this past week that left their goaltenders helpless on the back end and couldn’t muster much up front, either? On the other side of the ice, they’ll see a potentially rejuvenated Blues squad that shut out the Ducks in Ken Hitchcock’s return to coaching on Tuesday, then welcome a Sens’ group against whom they’ve already split a pair of games for the always-energetic Hall of Fame game and finally bring in a currently-playoff-bound Coyotes’ team that is being bolstered by, believe it or not, 39-year old Ray Whitney and Mike Smith, who hasn’t played more than 42 games in a season but is currently thriving as the starting goalie in Phoenix. The highlight of the week is definitely the Hall of Fame game, which will make for a particularly electric ACC with the induction of Leaf legend Doug Gilmour, along with former Leafs Joe Nieuwendyk and Ed Belfour (Mark Howe, too).

What Happened

Any talk of a fluke start has to be thrown out the window at this point for the Leafs (8-3-1), who won three of their four games over the past seven days, including road victories over the Rangers and Devils and a thrilling ‘w’ over the Penguins in what looked like their first thorough, full, 60-minute effort of the season. The top line continued to shine and Jonas Gustavsson got some of his groove back after a shaky first few outings in place of James Reimer (although Kaspars Daugavins’ winning goal for Ottawa on Sunday was still unforgivable).

What’s Notable

In the Lup
Both Joffrey Lupul and Kris Versteeg are among the 21 NHL players who have scored at least five goals and boast a point-per-game stat line thus far this season. The cynics among us will suggest that this offers a great example of the fluky happenings of the NHL’s first leg, but it also represents the strange way in which different environments suit different personalities. Lupul seemed aimless as just another guy in Anaheim but has thrived under the high-pressure, high-energy atmosphere in Toronto, while Versteeg, conversely, couldn’t handle the fishbowl (or the similar pressure in Philadelphia) and has found new life under less scrutiny as a Florida Panther. As an aside, let’s just boldly go ahead and call the Francois Beauchemin trade (Beauchemin to Anaheim for Lupul and Jake Gardiner) a win for TML.

A Monster Re-Emerges
Okay, so Gustavsson isn’t quite there yet. He still gives up too many juicy rebounds and his movement in net sometimes takes the appearance of a child with bladder control issues (Francois Allaire must cringe at both). But he has given up fewer goals in his past four games (11) than he did over his first three (13) and his save percentage over those four games (.908) represents more than a 50-point improvement from the .857 he registered prior. Stats aside, he simply looks more confident. Curious as it may seem to laud an interference penalty, his attempt to play the puck against the Devils last night may have led to the Patrick Elias PP goal, but it also signalled his willingness to venture out of the crease and play with more assertiveness. By no means in Gustavsson’s play making anyone forget about Reimer, but confidence is the key for the struggling Swede and more consistent weeks like this will help immensely.

Schenn Struggles
Credit Ron Wilson (who still doesn’t deserve a contract extension, by the way) with taking prompt action on a struggling Luke Schenn. Schenn was on the ice for just 10 minutes against the Devils, well under the totals of any other Leafs blue liner and even five minutes fewer than Gardiner. It isn’t the first time that Schenn has dealt with inconsistency and it certainly isn’t time to push the panic button (yesterday represented the Saskatoon native’s 22^nd birthday), but it’s nonetheless difficult to fully understand. After all, Schenn is actually facing less pressure than in previous seasons. He’s not part of the top defensive pairing and doesn’t often find himself in against the opposing team’s top forwards. Plus, his expectations on the offensive end have decreased on account of the presence of his partner, John-Michael Liles. Disconcertingly, it’s the physical aspect of his game, the part that should be an unmistakeable strength, that’s lacking, as he’s being pushed off the puck too easily and too often. With Cody Franson deserving of more of a shot than he’s gotten, you have to figure that a trip to the press box isn’t too far off for Schenn (possibly even tonight in Columbus).

Too Early to Lay Out the Welcome Mat(s)?
Doug Gilmour was honoured with a banner-raising on January 31, 2009, just under 12 years after playing his last real game in the blue and white (sorry, a one-game, five-minute comeback doesn’t count). Wendel Clark saw his number pulled to the rafters on November 22, 2008, over 10 years after the end of his second stint in Toronto. What, then, is the rush with Mats Sundin, who will be honoured in a similar ceremony on February 11, 2012, less than four years following his final game as a Leaf? Sundin certainly deserves the honour and shouldn’t be punished for the fact that the Toronto faithful never warmed to him in quite the same way as they did with Gilmour and Clark, but to expedite the process like that raises questions about why the previous two captains weren’t honoured in a similarly prompt fashion.

What’s Coming Up

@ Columbus (Thursday); vs. Boston (Saturday); vs. Florida (Tuesday)

The Saturday night tilt at home to Boston is the headliner here, but the games against Columbus and Florida represent a pair of those outings that clubs with playoff hopes simply can’t afford to overlook. Columbus’ league-worst 2-9-1 record screams pushover, but they happen to be coming off a win over Anaheim, have been off since Sunday, welcome a fatigued Toronto team on the tail end of a back-to-back and are filled with GTA-born players who will surely be up for a rare game against the Leafs. Meanwhile, it will be interesting to see how the Buds counter the Bruins’ deep forward corps that tallied six goals against them two weeks ago, as well as seeing what the new-look Panthers have to offer.

What Happened

The week could have gone a whole lot worse for the Leafs (5-2-1), who escaped much of a tough road stretch and some key injuries with a 2-2 mark and a still-impressive over-all record as they get some of their charges back. It certainly helped to cap off the home stand with a shootout victory over the Jets, making losses to Boston and Philadelphia more tolerable. Also serving as cause for celebration in Leafs land was Mikhail Grabovski getting some measure of revenge against his former club by tallying the OT winner against the Habs in Montreal on Saturday. That being said, they could use a nice, decisive win, given that they’ve lost more games by multi-goal differentials (2) than they’ve won (1) and haven’t won in regulation since October 15.

What’s Notable

Connolly’s Back
Was Tim Connolly’s shoulder injury, in fact, a blessing in disguise? Ridiculous as it seems to find positives in a season-opening injury to your big off-season pick-up, it has presented a nice set of debuting circumstances for the centre heading into tonight’s contest with the New York Rangers. Connolly now arrives in the line-up on the road to a top six forward corps that is already operating smoothly and may even get to join a top line that has been absolutely dominant, thereby easing pressure on him to contribute immediately. As of now, forget about how he gels with Phil Kessel and Joffrey Lupul – it’s just good to see the 30-year old on the ice and healthy.

Goaltending in Flux
My biggest concern out of the Leafs’ early-season goaltending situation hasn’t been the injury woes of James Reimer  (although that’s still assuming he’s out with a neck injury – a concussion is a whole other story). However, it’s the play of Jonas Gustavsson in Reimer’s absence that remains very much in question. As Damien Cox recently said, Gustavsson is officially out of excuses and this is where he has to start proving his worth. And no, a 1-2 record with an .857 save percentage and 4.88 GAA won’t do it. It’s also worth noting that he was outplayed by Ben Scrivens during the pre-season but was given another shot at back-up duties a) to offer Reimer support from someone who at least has a bit of NHL experience under their belt and b) to give Gustavsson a chance to prove that 2010-11 was simply an off year. It’s not time to cut the bait with the Monster, but he’ll have to change course in a hurry with Scrivens making a push and management seeking a whole lot more dependability out of that back-up spot.

Mighty Joe
There is a Leaf atop the NHL scoring race and a two Marlies sitting tied for first in the AHL race. Cue the frenzy in Leafs Nation. No, I don’t expect to see Kessel raising the Maurice Richard or Hart Trophy at season’s end, nor do I see Joe Colborne nor – really? – Joey Crabb carrying their early momentum to an AHL scoring title in April (remember, the AHL folks don’t necessarily want the scoring title, as it would pretty much mean a full season in the minors). However, there is plenty to be gleaned from Colborne’s hot start that has seen him score seven and assist on eight more for 15 points through seven games. If such a thing as a five-tool player existed in hockey, the Providence alum would be growing into one. He has displayed good hands, great wheels, solid play-making vision, scoring instincts and on a hybrid scoring/grinder line with Crabb and Jerry D’Amigo, has shown a willingness to play physical (as you should when you stand 6’5” and weigh 213 pounds). For now, the Leafs seem to be pretty set down the middle (never thought I’d hear myself say that last year) and Nazem Kadri should be the first call if a spot opens up, but Colborne is becoming awfully hard to ignore.

Dion and the Rest
Despite getting tremendous production from the top, that same level of play simply hasn’t been matched throughout the corps and raises issues about balance and depth. This previous line could refer to the forward unit of Kessel, Lupul and a bunch of guys who aren’t performing up to standard, but it also applies to a defensive corps in which Dion Phaneuf is playing at an elite level without much help. Remove Phaneuf’s nine points (two goals, seven assists) and +7 rating and the blue line has 14 assists spread among six rearguards (40 total games) and a -5 rating. Carl Gunnarsson hasn’t been able to capitalize on playing alongside Phaneuf yet, John-Michael Liles has probably been the team’s second-best defender but has been dragged down by the poor play of partner Luke Schenn, Jake Gardiner still looks lost at times but seems to be coming around, Mike Komisarek continues to be a shell of his former self and Cody Franson can’t seem to shake press box duty.

What’s Coming Up

@ New York Rangers (Thursday); vs. Pittsburgh (Saturday); @ Ottawa (Sunday)

Interesting week with a trio of tough-but-winnable games. The Leafs get to see what they missed out on tonight as they visit Brad Richards and the New York Rangers and face another team that could be jostling for one of the precious few spots at the back end of the Eastern Conference playoff picture. It will also be interesting to see how Connolly is used and how regularly. Saturday brings the Pens and a healthy Evgeni Malkin to town, not that they need him (or Sidney Crosby, for that matter) given their Atlantic-leading 7-2-2 start. Sunday will see the Buds endure their first back-to-back set of the season as they hightail it to Ottawa for a clash with the Sens.